Is Bitcoin About to Rally? New Onchain Data Reveals What’s Really Happening w/ Julio Moreno

You see this in the last few weeks how it went from really negative levels extremely negative and it went up to even is positive right now. They stopped selling basically the US and that drives prices higher relative to prices in other exchanges. The Coinbase premium flipping positive, combined with on-chain data showing Bitcoin flowing from offshore exchanges into Coinbase to capture arbitrage, indicates a resurgence of US-based spot demand. This localized spike in trading volume and liquidity directly translates to higher transaction fee revenue for Coinbase. LONG. The short-term return of US buyer appetite provides a tactical tailwind for Coinbase's core exchange business during this relief rally. In a bear market regime, positive Coinbase premiums are historically temporary. If the premium flips negative again, it signals that US demand has evaporated, removing the volume catalyst for the stock.

The range or the zone will be around you know 76k to 86k which is where this metric is right now. Around that I should expect we hit resistance and then a correction happens if we are still in a bare market like we are right now. The current upward price action is a relief rally driven by exhausted selling pressure (extreme unrealized losses) rather than a new wave of structural demand. Because the broader market regime is still bearish, the 1-to-3 month realized price band (76k-86k) will act as a hard ceiling where trapped short-term buyers will sell to break even. WATCH. Traders should monitor the 76k-86k resistance zone to take profits or hedge long exposure, anticipating a macro bear market rejection at those levels. If the CryptoQuant Bull Score index rapidly spikes above 60, it would signal a regime change from a bear to a bull market, likely causing BTC to break cleanly through the 76k-86k resistance.