Arthur Hayes
CIO, Maelstrom & CEO, Flop Labs
Arthur Hayes co-founded the crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX in 2014 with Ben Delo and Samuel Reed; Maelstrom's own bio for him credits him with inventing the perpetual swap, which it calls the most widely traded crypto financial product of all time. He is co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom, the crypto investment firm whose strategic direction he sets. Born in Detroit in 1985 and raised in Buffalo, New York, he graduated from the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School in 2008 with a BS in economics, traded equity derivatives at Deutsche Bank from 2008 to 2011 and then at Citigroup, and was laid off in 2013. BitMEX's average daily trading volume was over $2 billion in 2021. He stepped down from BitMEX in October 2020, the month US prosecutors indicted him and his co-founders over an exchange they had not registered in the United States despite "thousands of US based customers"; he surrendered to US authorities in Hawaii in April 2021, pleaded guilty on 24 February 2022 to willfully failing to establish, implement and maintain an anti-money-laundering programme at BitMEX, and was sentenced to six months of home confinement with two years of probation and a $10 million fine. President Donald Trump pardoned him and his co-founders on 29 March 2025. BitMEX itself is winding down: owner HDR Global Trading announced in July 2026 that the exchange would shut permanently on 23 September 2026 after a strategic review. Hayes writes the Substack "Crypto Trader Digest", and across his recorded appearances his market case rests on government and central-bank liquidity — Treasury bill issuance and long-end bond buybacks, what he calls soft yield curve control, and money printing — as the driver of Bitcoin and gold. In August 2026 he said he was "coming out of retirement" to lead Flop Labs as CEO; Flop bills itself as a "proof-of-useful-inference" protocol whose FLOP token is intended as a unit of compute that AI agents spend on inference and decentralised memory, with a large airdrop planned for the fourth quarter of 2026 ahead of a genesis block in early 2027. He says the launch has no presale and no venture backers.
Leaderboard rank
Open in leaderboard →| Horizon | 7D | 30D | 90D | 180D | 360D | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | #732 | #715 | #769 | #527 | — | #542 |
| Calls | 44 | 46 | 37 | 29 | 9/10 | 46 |
| Avg return | -0.9% | -0.7% | -3.3% | +0.8% | — | -1.2% |
| vs S&P 500 | -0.4 pp | -1.1 pp | -8.6 pp | -10.0 pp | — | -6.0 pp |
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Arthur Hayes has 34 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 33 tickers since March 2025. Win rate 48% across 33 evaluated calls, average return +7.8%. Ranked #715 on Buzzberg's 30-day Authors leaderboard. Most covered: BTC, HYPE, ETH.
Historical call returns are modeled from recorded ideas and stored prices, not actual brokerage portfolio returns. Check the evaluated call set and horizon; past results do not establish future prediction accuracy. Explore our data and methodology
