New All-Time Highs Everywhere… Is This Bull Run Just Getting Started?

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  April 21, 2026 at 17:51  |  38:30  |  Milk Road Daily
Speakers

Summary

Caleb Franen, a macro analyst, discusses the current bull market in equities, highlighting strong technical and fundamental data. He explains why he remains bullish on stocks, particularly in technology and semiconductors, and shares his approach to accumulating Bitcoin during its bear market. The conversation covers labor market strength, inflation risks, and liquidity conditions, concluding that the bull run has room to continue.

  • Caleb Franen analyzes the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, noting all sectors are above their 200-day moving averages and momentum indicators are bullish.
  • He discusses the correlation between unemployment and stock market gains, but cautions that this relationship may eventually break.
  • Labor productivity data is strong, supporting economic resilience.
  • Inflation risks exist due to energy prices, but core components (excluding shelter) are still elevated, making Fed rate cuts unlikely in the near term.
  • M2 money supply and bank lending are growing, indicating ample liquidity.
  • He is buying individual stocks like Microsoft and ON Semiconductor based on technical breakouts.
  • He is cautiously accumulating Bitcoin at lower levels while waiting for a breakout above a key moving average to confirm a new bull market.
  • He advocates for the debasement trade, favoring assets like Bitcoin, technology stocks, and semiconductors.
Trade Ideas
Caleb Franen 2:18
Bullish on S&P 500 and NASDAQ due to momentum.
Markets are at new all-time highs with strong momentum thrusts, all sectors trading above their 200-day moving averages, and technical indicators like the 120-day Williams percent R showing bullish momentum thrusts. The uptrend is supported by strong forward earnings and broad market participation.
SPY QQQ HIGH
Caleb Franen 26:23
Buying stocks on technical breakouts and uptrends.
He is buying individual stocks that exhibit uptrend behavior, breakouts above moving averages, or deeply oversold conditions based on technical analysis. Specifically, he mentions buying 'foret', Cadence Design Systems, Brookfield, Microsoft, and ON Semiconductor, citing breakouts and retests of key moving averages.
foret CDNS BEP MSFT ON HIGH
Caleb Franen 28:17
Bullish on semiconductor stocks as debasement trade.
He believes in the debasement trade due to monetary debasement and wants to own the 'fastest horses in the race': Bitcoin, technology stocks, semiconductors, high beta stocks, growth stocks, and mega caps. This is his broad thematic approach to asset allocation.
SMH XLK SPHB IWF MGC MED
Caleb Franen 28:27
Industrials breaking out, positive for market.
Industrial stocks are breaking out and look phenomenal, with the highest correlation to the S&P 500. Their strong performance is a positive signal for the broader market, though he does not currently own any.
XLI MED
Caleb Franen 33:51
Accumulating Bitcoin at oversold support levels.
He is accumulating Bitcoin at around $67,000 because it is at the 200E moving average cloud support (between $60,000 and $68,000) and the 18-month Williams percent R is oversold, indicating an accumulation zone. He sold at $97,000 and bought back 20% at $67,000.
BTC HIGH
Up Next
15:50
UniCredit CEO Orcel on His Pursuit of Commerzbank
Bloomberg Markets · Apr 21
3:05
Iranian-Flagged Cargo Ship Attempts to Cross Hormuz
Bloomberg Markets · Apr 21
1:17
PM's Office Had 'Dismissive Attitude' to Mandelson Vetting: Official
Bloomberg Markets · Apr 21
52:56
Squawk Pod: President Trump: We’re going to end up with a great deal - 04/21/26 | Audio Only
CNBC · Apr 21
1:45
Apple’s Next Steps as CEO Tim Cook Prepares to Step Down
Bloomberg Markets · Apr 21

This Milk Road Daily video, published April 21, 2026, features Caleb Franen discussing SPY, QQQ, foret, CDNS, BEP, MSFT, ON, SMH, XLK, SPHB, IWF, MGC, XLI, BTC. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Caleb Franen  · Tickers: SPY, QQQ, foret, CDNS, BEP, MSFT, ON, SMH, XLK, SPHB, IWF, MGC, XLI, BTC