Michael Oliver

Buy silver; speaker argues repeated price suppression just below $90 signals the bull run is not exhausted — artificial capping at key round numbers historically precedes a breakout rather than a top.

Gold's long-term annual momentum has no broken structures. Previous bull markets (1980, 2011) saw 8-fold gains from bear market lows. If gold merely replicates the 8-fold dimension of past cycles, the target is ~$8,000–$8,500. The current pullback is non-structural and healthy. LONG. Maintain core positions for the macro move. A break in annual momentum structure (currently far below market price).

The XAU (Gold/Silver Miners) Index has historically traded at 25% of the price of gold but dropped to 4% in 2015 and remains historically suppressed. Miners are forming a massive relative performance base. A breakout is expected to cause miners to outperform the metal by double-fold (2x leverage to gold's move). LONG. Miners offer deep value leverage to the underlying metals. Rising operational costs (energy) eating into margins despite higher metal prices.

The XAU (Gold/Silver Miners) Index has historically traded at 25% of the price of gold but dropped to 4% in 2015 and remains historically suppressed. Miners are forming a massive relative performance base. A breakout is expected to cause miners to outperform the metal by double-fold (2x leverage to gold's move). LONG. Miners offer deep value leverage to the underlying metals. Rising operational costs (energy) eating into margins despite higher metal prices.

Oil is trading around $63, but momentum metrics broke out of a massive base/downtrend last month without any major headlines. Oil is historically cheap ("off the page dirt cheap") relative to money supply and other assets. The momentum breakout implies a rapid 50% surge to the mid-$90s is imminent, regardless of current geopolitical news. LONG. Energy is joining the broader commodity breakout. Deflationary bust or demand destruction from a recession.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index broke out above 106.50 in October and is holding the trend. Commodities are starting a second bull leg after a multi-year consolidation. This confirms a broad sector rotation out of financial assets and into hard assets. LONG. Broad commodity exposure is favored over general equities. Global recession dampening demand for industrial commodities.

The US government debt market is in a catastrophic state, like a house on fire, and the Fed under Kevin Warsh is boxed in and unable to address it effectively. This suggests a structural breakdown that will end badly for government bonds.

Copper has broken out of a decades-long range and is in a bull trend. Target of $7-$8 or higher is easily achievable, driven by money flows out of bonds and stocks into real assets.

Oliver highlights the "commodity category" as low-risk and high-reward. He specifically lists "grain related," "fertilizer companies," and "base metal miners" as sub-sectors to own. As inflation becomes structural and the commodity cycle turns up (the "second major uptrend"), agricultural inputs (fertilizers) and industrial metals (base miners) will reprice higher, uncorrelated to the broad stock market. Long Agriculture (Grains/Fertilizers) and Base Metals to diversify the commodity bet beyond energy and gold. Weather events impacting crop yields or a slowdown in industrial manufacturing (China) hurting base metals.

Oliver highlights the "commodity category" as low-risk and high-reward. He specifically lists "grain related," "fertilizer companies," and "base metal miners" as sub-sectors to own. As inflation becomes structural and the commodity cycle turns up (the "second major uptrend"), agricultural inputs (fertilizers) and industrial metals (base miners) will reprice higher, uncorrelated to the broad stock market. Long Agriculture (Grains/Fertilizers) and Base Metals to diversify the commodity bet beyond energy and gold. Weather events impacting crop yields or a slowdown in industrial manufacturing (China) hurting base metals.

Oliver highlights the "commodity category" as low-risk and high-reward. He specifically lists "grain related," "fertilizer companies," and "base metal miners" as sub-sectors to own. As inflation becomes structural and the commodity cycle turns up (the "second major uptrend"), agricultural inputs (fertilizers) and industrial metals (base miners) will reprice higher, uncorrelated to the broad stock market. Long Agriculture (Grains/Fertilizers) and Base Metals to diversify the commodity bet beyond energy and gold. Weather events impacting crop yields or a slowdown in industrial manufacturing (China) hurting base metals.

Oil is trading around $63, but momentum metrics broke out of a massive base/downtrend last month without any major headlines. Oil is historically cheap ("off the page dirt cheap") relative to money supply and other assets. The momentum breakout implies a rapid 50% surge to the mid-$90s is imminent, regardless of current geopolitical news. LONG. Energy is joining the broader commodity breakout. Deflationary bust or demand destruction from a recession.