Michael Oliver

The XAU (Gold/Silver Miners) Index has historically traded at 25% of the price of gold but dropped to 4% in 2015 and remains historically suppressed. Miners are forming a massive relative performance base. A breakout is expected to cause miners to outperform the metal by double-fold (2x leverage to gold's move). LONG. Miners offer deep value leverage to the underlying metals. Rising operational costs (energy) eating into margins despite higher metal prices.

Silver recently dropped from highs to ~$71–$72, touching its 3-month moving average for the first time in months. Oliver calls this a "midpoint stumble" within a 6-month surge window. Momentum structures remain intact despite the sharp price drop. Historical precedents (1979, 2010) suggest that after this stumble, the "lid comes off," potentially driving prices to $300–$500 as it catches up to inflation-adjusted realities. LONG. The pullback is a buying opportunity before the next explosive leg in March. A sustained break below the 3-month moving average could invalidate the "stumble" thesis.

The XAU (Gold/Silver Miners) Index has historically traded at 25% of the price of gold but dropped to 4% in 2015 and remains historically suppressed. Miners are forming a massive relative performance base. A breakout is expected to cause miners to outperform the metal by double-fold (2x leverage to gold's move). LONG. Miners offer deep value leverage to the underlying metals. Rising operational costs (energy) eating into margins despite higher metal prices.

Gold's long-term annual momentum has no broken structures. Previous bull markets (1980, 2011) saw 8-fold gains from bear market lows. If gold merely replicates the 8-fold dimension of past cycles, the target is ~$8,000–$8,500. The current pullback is non-structural and healthy. LONG. Maintain core positions for the macro move. A break in annual momentum structure (currently far below market price).

Oil is trading around $63, but momentum metrics broke out of a massive base/downtrend last month without any major headlines. Oil is historically cheap ("off the page dirt cheap") relative to money supply and other assets. The momentum breakout implies a rapid 50% surge to the mid-$90s is imminent, regardless of current geopolitical news. LONG. Energy is joining the broader commodity breakout. Deflationary bust or demand destruction from a recession.

Oliver highlights the "commodity category" as low-risk and high-reward. He specifically lists "grain related," "fertilizer companies," and "base metal miners" as sub-sectors to own. As inflation becomes structural and the commodity cycle turns up (the "second major uptrend"), agricultural inputs (fertilizers) and industrial metals (base miners) will reprice higher, uncorrelated to the broad stock market. Long Agriculture (Grains/Fertilizers) and Base Metals to diversify the commodity bet beyond energy and gold. Weather events impacting crop yields or a slowdown in industrial manufacturing (China) hurting base metals.

Oliver highlights the "commodity category" as low-risk and high-reward. He specifically lists "grain related," "fertilizer companies," and "base metal miners" as sub-sectors to own. As inflation becomes structural and the commodity cycle turns up (the "second major uptrend"), agricultural inputs (fertilizers) and industrial metals (base miners) will reprice higher, uncorrelated to the broad stock market. Long Agriculture (Grains/Fertilizers) and Base Metals to diversify the commodity bet beyond energy and gold. Weather events impacting crop yields or a slowdown in industrial manufacturing (China) hurting base metals.

Oliver highlights the "commodity category" as low-risk and high-reward. He specifically lists "grain related," "fertilizer companies," and "base metal miners" as sub-sectors to own. As inflation becomes structural and the commodity cycle turns up (the "second major uptrend"), agricultural inputs (fertilizers) and industrial metals (base miners) will reprice higher, uncorrelated to the broad stock market. Long Agriculture (Grains/Fertilizers) and Base Metals to diversify the commodity bet beyond energy and gold. Weather events impacting crop yields or a slowdown in industrial manufacturing (China) hurting base metals.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index broke out above 106.50 in October and is holding the trend. Commodities are starting a second bull leg after a multi-year consolidation. This confirms a broad sector rotation out of financial assets and into hard assets. LONG. Broad commodity exposure is favored over general equities. Global recession dampening demand for industrial commodities.

Oil is trading around $63, but momentum metrics broke out of a massive base/downtrend last month without any major headlines. Oil is historically cheap ("off the page dirt cheap") relative to money supply and other assets. The momentum breakout implies a rapid 50% surge to the mid-$90s is imminent, regardless of current geopolitical news. LONG. Energy is joining the broader commodity breakout. Deflationary bust or demand destruction from a recession.