“Buy the Dip” May Stop Working...  Is a 20% Crash Coming Next? w/ Chris Vermeulen

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  March 01, 2026 at 14:01  |  11:34  |  Milk Road Daily

Summary

  • Market Bifurcation: A significant divergence has emerged where the S&P 500 remains in a technical uptrend ("rising tide"), while the Nasdaq and Magnificent 7 have structurally broken down.
  • The "Drag 7" Thesis: The "Magnificent 7" have lost their leadership, breaking key support levels with strong volume. They are no longer leading the market up but are poised to drag it down.
  • Crash Prediction: The analyst foresees a potential 20% correction driven by the unwinding of the "AI Bubble" and a broader economic reset (Stage 4 decline).
  • Strategy Shift: The "Buy the Dip" strategy, which worked during the April tariff scare, is expected to fail. The current setup suggests a major top (Head and Shoulders pattern) rather than a pause.
Trade Ideas
Chris Vermeulen Chief Market Strategist, TheTechnicalTraders 3:24
The S&P 500 is currently "still rising" with price above the 20, 50, and 150-day moving averages. Vermeulen states, "We're still long... until proven wrong." However, the S&P 500 typically follows the Nasdaq. With the Nasdaq already in a downtrend and a "20% crash" predicted due to an economic reset, the S&P is the last domino standing. The trade is to wait for the S&P to break its trendline (like the Nasdaq did) to confirm the "Stage 4 decline." WATCH. Remain Long only as long as the uptrend holds, but prepare to exit or flip Short immediately upon a trend break, as a "precipitous fall" is expected. Selling too early while the "rising tide" is still technically intact.
Chris Vermeulen Chief Market Strategist, TheTechnicalTraders 5:00
The "MAGS" ETF (Magnificent 7) has explicitly "broken this support level... to the downside with strong volume." Similarly, the Nasdaq is now making "lower highs and lower lows," which is the technical definition of a downtrend, and has been rejected at resistance. The "Mag 7" act as the market's heavyweight boxers; where they go, the indices follow. Since the leaders (MAGS) have already broken down, the broader tech index (Nasdaq) is confirming the weakness. This weakness in the leaders signals the "AI bubble" is beginning to unfold, and capital is fleeing the sector. SHORT. The trend in Tech has reversed from up to down. The "Buy the Dip" dynamic is invalid here as the structure has broken. The S&P 500 is still holding up; if the broad market refuses to roll over, tech could see a dead-cat bounce before the drop.
Up Next

This Milk Road Daily video, published March 01, 2026, features Chris Vermeulen discussing SPY, MAGS, QQQ. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Chris Vermeulen  · Tickers: SPY, MAGS, QQQ