Chris Vermeulen

"The S&P 500... is still in an uptrend. We are actually long the S&P 500 here still... The moving averages are still layered properly." Despite his bearish macro outlook, Vermeulen follows price, not predictions. The S&P 500 is above its 150-day moving average, meaning the "tide is rising." He will remain long until the trend technically reverses, even if other sectors are failing. LONG (Trend Following). The NASDAQ is dragging the market down; if SPY breaks below the 150-day MA, the trade flips to short/cash immediately.

Bitcoin has a bearish chart pattern (flag) with long-term trend down. It points to 50-52k on the next leg down. Short-term is mixed but odds favor lower. I would consider shorting or buying an inverse ETF if downtrend resumes.

Money flows and sentiment are bullish for equities. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ are in uptrends, approaching key targets. Equities are the only asset class standing out, and we follow the trend. We are long via QQQ and a band strategy.

Energy stocks benefit from high oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty. We are still long XOP (energy ETF), having already hit a target. Oil is likely to stay elevated, supporting energy companies.

Buy junior gold miners as GDXJ staged a strong reversal alongside precious metals bouncing off multi-month lows, with institutional buying confirming support at key levels.

Buy gold as price bounced hard off multi-month lows with institutional and bargain-hunter demand visibly stepping in, suggesting a durable support floor and potential reversal.

Buy silver alongside gold as both metals bounced sharply off multi-month lows with institutional support evident, mirroring the same demand-at-support thesis.

Semiconductors are in a sweet spot as suppliers to AI buildout. The sector has massive momentum and could double or triple over several years, despite short-term overbought conditions.

Energy stocks (XOP, XLE) are in an uptrend with huge volume and a supportive oil price. He is long XOP and sees further upside.

The real estate ETF IYR shows a bullish technical pattern pointing to about 5% upside. Sentiment is shifting to defensive plays, and real estate is benefiting from uncertainty in tech. The pattern is bullish and likely to play out.

"When we see stage 4 declines hit, usually the dollar index outperforms... In 2022... the US dollar rallied about 17%." In a global deflationary event or financial reset, capital flees to the safety of the US Dollar. As equities and foreign currencies collapse, the USD strengthens (the "Milkshake Theory" dynamic). LONG (Defensive Play). The Fed cuts rates aggressively earlier than expected, weakening the dollar.