Chris Vermeulen 5.5 31 ideas

Chris discusses XLE, saying energy stocks have had a "huge run," feels "overdone," and would wait for a pullback before getting long. Energy sector is bucking the broader market trend but is crowded and could fall sharply if news changes, aligning with general market decline. AVOID because current levels are risky with potential for sudden drops, despite the bullish oil trend. Oil prices could continue to rise, boosting energy stocks, but the sector is vulnerable to a mass exodus on negative headlines.

Chris says "I definitely wouldn't be shorting oil," "the trend is up," and oil could reach $140 based on Fibonacci extensions. High oil prices pressure consumers, drive inflation, and lead to lower stock and bond prices, similar to past cycles. WATCH because the bullish trend is intact, but he's not currently long, advising to monitor for long opportunities amid volatility. Geopolitical news could cause sudden reversals, making oil prices unpredictable and risky.

Chris expects a "big 20 plus% pullback in gold," has exited positions, and identifies a bearish topping pattern with rejection at highs. Gold is moving in lockstep with stocks, not acting as a safe haven, and chart signals indicate weakness and potential decline. AVOID because holding gold now could lead to significant losses and wasted time during a likely correction. Gold could form a bull flag and rally later, but current technicals are negative.

Chris says "I think we're going to see at least a 30 to 40% pullback in silver," and notes volume has dried up, indicating lack of interest. Silver has topped alongside gold, is in a bearish phase, and could decline sharply in a broad market sell-off. AVOID due to expected sharp pullback, high volatility, and poor sentiment. Silver could rebound if market conditions improve, but currently shows signs of weakness.

Chris states they "moved out of the equities market" and advises sidestepping due to trendless, volatile conditions reminiscent of 2022. Market is breaking down with critical support at 6,200, and high oil prices or AI disruption could trigger further sell-offs. AVOID because the risk of a bear market is high, and protecting capital is priority over trading in this uncertain environment. The market could bounce and resume an uptrend, but currently, the trend is down or sideways.

Oil spiked 11-12% overnight on the Iran news, gapping above the 150-day moving average and into resistance, but has since given back half those gains. Big gaps on headline news are typically "fade the news" events. The long-term trend for oil is still a series of lower highs (bear market). This spike represents panic buying/short covering (capitulation) rather than sustainable demand. Short/Fade the rally. Expect price to fill the gap and fall back into its previous range. Significant escalation in the Middle East (e.g., Strait of Hormuz closure) could sustain the fear premium.

Gold is up 2% on war news but is hitting "peak price on peak news." While the long-term target is $6,100, the current move is exhausted. Buying at vertical resistance during a news spike is dangerous. The chart needs to consolidate and build a "launchpad" (bull flag) before a safe entry is possible. Wait for a pullback/consolidation before entering. Immediate escalation of war could force a breakout without a pullback, leaving sideline investors behind.

The strategist explicitly states, "We moved to cash." He notes the Nasdaq has broken short-term support and is forming a "bear flag." While there is an intraday bounce (1-2% upside potential), this is viewed as "noise" within a larger breakdown. The "Magnificent 7" stocks look weak, and the market is making lower highs. The risk of a major leg down outweighs the potential of a short-term bounce. Move to Cash / Avoid exposure. The "buy the dip" mentality could persist longer than expected, pushing indices back above resistance levels (approx. 6960 for S&P futures).

Bonds are "coming to life" and moving up on days when stocks show fear, re-establishing their defensive correlation. TLT is trying to build a base but remains in a long-term downtrend. It needs to clear specific resistance levels ($91-$92) to confirm a "rounding bottom" formation. Watch for a breakout above $92. A move above $100 would confirm a new bull market. Persistent inflation or Fed hawkishness could keep yields high and bond prices suppressed.

Bitcoin is in a confirmed bear market, trading below key moving averages with a series of bear flags. Bitcoin is acting as a high-beta risk asset, moving in lockstep with the Nasdaq. Since the Nasdaq is breaking down, Bitcoin is "leading the way" lower. The technical pattern suggests a drop to the 0.618 Fibonacci extension. Bearish. Target price is approximately $51,000 - $52,000. A sudden "risk-on" rotation in the broader stock market would likely drag Bitcoin higher temporarily.

Silver is underperforming gold and recently printed a massive red bearish candle. Money is flowing out of physical silver and into miners, leaving the spot price weak. The chart shows "inside bars" following a drop, which is a bearish continuation pattern (similar to the 2011 crash structure). Avoid. Expect lower pricing. A massive breakout in Gold could eventually drag Silver higher via sympathy.

The "MAGS" ETF (Magnificent 7) has explicitly "broken this support level... to the downside with strong volume." Similarly, the Nasdaq is now making "lower highs and lower lows," which is the technical definition of a downtrend, and has been rejected at resistance. The "Mag 7" act as the market's heavyweight boxers; where they go, the indices follow. Since the leaders (MAGS) have already broken down, the broader tech index (Nasdaq) is confirming the weakness. This weakness in the leaders signals the "AI bubble" is beginning to unfold, and capital is fleeing the sector. SHORT. The trend in Tech has reversed from up to down. The "Buy the Dip" dynamic is invalid here as the structure has broken. The S&P 500 is still holding up; if the broad market refuses to roll over, tech could see a dead-cat bounce before the drop.

The S&P 500 is currently "still rising" with price above the 20, 50, and 150-day moving averages. Vermeulen states, "We're still long... until proven wrong." However, the S&P 500 typically follows the Nasdaq. With the Nasdaq already in a downtrend and a "20% crash" predicted due to an economic reset, the S&P is the last domino standing. The trade is to wait for the S&P to break its trendline (like the Nasdaq did) to confirm the "Stage 4 decline." WATCH. Remain Long only as long as the uptrend holds, but prepare to exit or flip Short immediately upon a trend break, as a "precipitous fall" is expected. Selling too early while the "rising tide" is still technically intact.