#614
Alpha Score 18.5
Tavi Costa
CEO, Azura Capital
Ticker
Side
Mentions
Opened
Entry
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Feb 17
$84.78
+5.6%
While the market hypes "Rare Earths," Costa argues the real supply crunch is in "scale" metals like Copper, Zinc, and Nickel. Supply is stagnant, and discovery rates are low. The "Green Transition" and AI infrastructure build-out require massive amounts of base metals. Unlike niche minerals, these markets are deep and liquid. The lack of new mines coming online means prices must stay elevated to incentivize production, directly benefiting established producers. Long Copper and Base Metal Miners. Global recession reducing industrial demand for base metals.
While the market hypes "Rare Earths," Costa argues the real supply crunch is in "scale" metals like Copper, Zinc, and Nickel. Supply is stagnant, and discovery rates are low. The "Green Transition" and AI infrastructure build-out require massive amounts of base metals. Unlike niche minerals, these markets are deep and liquid. The lack of new mines coming online means prices must stay elevated to incentivize production, directly benefiting established producers. Long Copper and Base Metal Miners. Global recession reducing industrial demand for base metals.
Other
Long
Mar 03
$468.14
-12.9%
Costa notes that gold and silver are appreciating rapidly, yet the market is not yet pricing in "hyperinflation." He points out that central banks currently hold <25% of assets in gold (vs. 70% in the 1970s), implying massive room for mean reversion. He describes a sequential flow of capital: The move starts in Gold, rotates to Silver (which he sees hitting triple digits), and then flows into Platinum as a "catch-up" trade in precious metals. Long precious metals as a hedge against inevitable monetary debasement and fiscal dominance. A deflationary bust or a sudden strengthening of the US Dollar due to a liquidity crisis.
Costa notes that gold and silver are appreciating rapidly, yet the market is not yet pricing in "hyperinflation." He points out that central banks currently hold <25% of assets in gold (vs. 70% in the 1970s), implying massive room for mean reversion. He describes a sequential flow of capital: The move starts in Gold, rotates to Silver (which he sees hitting triple digits), and then flows into Platinum as a "catch-up" trade in precious metals. Long precious metals as a hedge against inevitable monetary debasement and fiscal dominance. A deflationary bust or a sudden strengthening of the US Dollar due to a liquidity crisis.
Macro
Long
Mar 03
$74.68
-11.9%
Costa notes that gold and silver are appreciating rapidly, yet the market is not yet pricing in "hyperinflation." He points out that central banks currently hold <25% of assets in gold (vs. 70% in the 1970s), implying massive room for mean reversion. He describes a sequential flow of capital: The move starts in Gold, rotates to Silver (which he sees hitting triple digits), and then flows into Platinum as a "catch-up" trade in precious metals. Long precious metals as a hedge against inevitable monetary debasement and fiscal dominance. A deflationary bust or a sudden strengthening of the US Dollar due to a liquidity crisis.
Costa notes that gold and silver are appreciating rapidly, yet the market is not yet pricing in "hyperinflation." He points out that central banks currently hold <25% of assets in gold (vs. 70% in the 1970s), implying massive room for mean reversion. He describes a sequential flow of capital: The move starts in Gold, rotates to Silver (which he sees hitting triple digits), and then flows into Platinum as a "catch-up" trade in precious metals. Long precious metals as a hedge against inevitable monetary debasement and fiscal dominance. A deflationary bust or a sudden strengthening of the US Dollar due to a liquidity crisis.
Other
Long
Feb 17
$37.74
-8.6%
Political risk in Latin America is shifting. Costa notes positive changes in Argentina, Bolivia, and Brazil, and emphasizes that the US government is now incentivized to support these jurisdictions for supply chain security. Investors historically applied a massive "jurisdiction discount" to LatAm assets due to fear of nationalization. As the US "friend-shores" mining supply chains, this risk premium will evaporate, causing a repricing of Brazilian and broader LatAm equities. Long Brazil (EWZ) and Latin America (ILF) as a play on resource-rich, improving jurisdictions. Reversal of political trends back toward extreme resource nationalism or socialism.
Political risk in Latin America is shifting. Costa notes positive changes in Argentina, Bolivia, and Brazil, and emphasizes that the US government is now incentivized to support these jurisdictions for supply chain security. Investors historically applied a massive "jurisdiction discount" to LatAm assets due to fear of nationalization. As the US "friend-shores" mining supply chains, this risk premium will evaporate, causing a repricing of Brazilian and broader LatAm equities. Long Brazil (EWZ) and Latin America (ILF) as a play on resource-rich, improving jurisdictions. Reversal of political trends back toward extreme resource nationalism or socialism.
Macro
Long
Mar 03
$26.02
+3.3%
Costa argues that once energy prices inflect upwards, "You're going to see ammonia prices going up... fertilizers... Corn prices going up." This is Second-Order Thinking. Energy (Natural Gas/Oil) is a primary input cost for modern agriculture (fertilizer production and diesel for machinery). If energy soars, food production costs soar, pushing up soft commodity prices. Long Agriculture and Fertilizer producers. Favorable weather creating bumper crops that suppress prices temporarily.
Costa argues that once energy prices inflect upwards, "You're going to see ammonia prices going up... fertilizers... Corn prices going up." This is Second-Order Thinking. Energy (Natural Gas/Oil) is a primary input cost for modern agriculture (fertilizer production and diesel for machinery). If energy soars, food production costs soar, pushing up soft commodity prices. Long Agriculture and Fertilizer producers. Favorable weather creating bumper crops that suppress prices temporarily.
Other
Long
Mar 03
$56.52
+3.9%
Costa states "energy is unlikely to be cheap going forward." He cites a 30% contraction in US rig counts and the geopolitical shock of the Iran conflict. The market is complacent about energy supply. The combination of war (geopolitical risk premium) and structural underinvestment (falling rig counts) creates a supply squeeze. Energy is the prerequisite for the entire industrial economy. Long Energy producers and Oil futures. Demand destruction from a global recession.
Costa states "energy is unlikely to be cheap going forward." He cites a 30% contraction in US rig counts and the geopolitical shock of the Iran conflict. The market is complacent about energy supply. The combination of war (geopolitical risk premium) and structural underinvestment (falling rig counts) creates a supply squeeze. Energy is the prerequisite for the entire industrial economy. Long Energy producers and Oil futures. Demand destruction from a global recession.
Energy
Long
Feb 17
$130.80
-15.2%
Silver is trading above $50/oz, but miners have all-in sustaining costs (AISC) around $15/oz. However, the mining sector is only 1% of global equities (vs. 12% at prior peaks). The market is pricing miners as if metal prices will revert to historical lows. Because they haven't reverted, these companies are now printing free cash flow with margins comparable to Google or Nvidia. This disconnect must close via a massive repricing of the equities. Long Junior Silver and Gold Miners (SILJ/GDXJ) and high-margin operators (PAAS) to capture the "margin expansion" trade. A deflationary crash that drags down all equities, including profitable miners.
Silver is trading above $50/oz, but miners have all-in sustaining costs (AISC) around $15/oz. However, the mining sector is only 1% of global equities (vs. 12% at prior peaks). The market is pricing miners as if metal prices will revert to historical lows. Because they haven't reverted, these companies are now printing free cash flow with margins comparable to Google or Nvidia. This disconnect must close via a massive repricing of the equities. Long Junior Silver and Gold Miners (SILJ/GDXJ) and high-margin operators (PAAS) to capture the "margin expansion" trade. A deflationary crash that drags down all equities, including profitable miners.
Other
Long
Feb 17
$36.03
-5.6%
Political risk in Latin America is shifting. Costa notes positive changes in Argentina, Bolivia, and Brazil, and emphasizes that the US government is now incentivized to support these jurisdictions for supply chain security. Investors historically applied a massive "jurisdiction discount" to LatAm assets due to fear of nationalization. As the US "friend-shores" mining supply chains, this risk premium will evaporate, causing a repricing of Brazilian and broader LatAm equities. Long Brazil (EWZ) and Latin America (ILF) as a play on resource-rich, improving jurisdictions. Reversal of political trends back toward extreme resource nationalism or socialism.
Political risk in Latin America is shifting. Costa notes positive changes in Argentina, Bolivia, and Brazil, and emphasizes that the US government is now incentivized to support these jurisdictions for supply chain security. Investors historically applied a massive "jurisdiction discount" to LatAm assets due to fear of nationalization. As the US "friend-shores" mining supply chains, this risk premium will evaporate, causing a repricing of Brazilian and broader LatAm equities. Long Brazil (EWZ) and Latin America (ILF) as a play on resource-rich, improving jurisdictions. Reversal of political trends back toward extreme resource nationalism or socialism.
Macro
Long
Feb 17
$32.23
-8.5%
Silver is trading above $50/oz, but miners have all-in sustaining costs (AISC) around $15/oz. However, the mining sector is only 1% of global equities (vs. 12% at prior peaks). The market is pricing miners as if metal prices will revert to historical lows. Because they haven't reverted, these companies are now printing free cash flow with margins comparable to Google or Nvidia. This disconnect must close via a massive repricing of the equities. Long Junior Silver and Gold Miners (SILJ/GDXJ) and high-margin operators (PAAS) to capture the "margin expansion" trade. A deflationary crash that drags down all equities, including profitable miners.
Silver is trading above $50/oz, but miners have all-in sustaining costs (AISC) around $15/oz. However, the mining sector is only 1% of global equities (vs. 12% at prior peaks). The market is pricing miners as if metal prices will revert to historical lows. Because they haven't reverted, these companies are now printing free cash flow with margins comparable to Google or Nvidia. This disconnect must close via a massive repricing of the equities. Long Junior Silver and Gold Miners (SILJ/GDXJ) and high-margin operators (PAAS) to capture the "margin expansion" trade. A deflationary crash that drags down all equities, including profitable miners.
Other
Long
Apr 28
$18.77
-6.8%
Agricultural commodities are the next domino after metals and energy. Underinvestment, rising energy costs, and incremental demand will push food prices higher. The DBA ETF is already breaking out, and I hold call options on it. Corn, wheat, and sugar futures are also positioned for upside.
Other
Long
Apr 28
$82.02
-2.3%
Fertilizer stocks will benefit from rising agricultural commodity prices and the domino effect across the food supply chain. I own some fertilizer names recently pulled back and see them as a good entry point.
Other
Long
Apr 28
$10.33
+13.9%
Natural gas is extremely undervalued relative to oil, and the BTU spread is extreme. Gas will be a key energy source for data centers and AI infrastructure, and the market will eventually reprice it higher. Negative gas prices in the Persian Gulf are a local pipeline issue, not a demand problem.
Energy
Long
Apr 28
$24.73
-8.4%
Agricultural commodities are the next domino after metals and energy. Underinvestment, rising energy costs, and incremental demand will push food prices higher. The DBA ETF is already breaking out, and I hold call options on it. Corn, wheat, and sugar futures are also positioned for upside.
Other
Long
Mar 03
$106.30
+9.7%
Costa argues that once energy prices inflect upwards, "You're going to see ammonia prices going up... fertilizers... Corn prices going up." This is Second-Order Thinking. Energy (Natural Gas/Oil) is a primary input cost for modern agriculture (fertilizer production and diesel for machinery). If energy soars, food production costs soar, pushing up soft commodity prices. Long Agriculture and Fertilizer producers. Favorable weather creating bumper crops that suppress prices temporarily.
Costa argues that once energy prices inflect upwards, "You're going to see ammonia prices going up... fertilizers... Corn prices going up." This is Second-Order Thinking. Energy (Natural Gas/Oil) is a primary input cost for modern agriculture (fertilizer production and diesel for machinery). If energy soars, food production costs soar, pushing up soft commodity prices. Long Agriculture and Fertilizer producers. Favorable weather creating bumper crops that suppress prices temporarily.
Other
Long
Mar 03
$26.78
-13.0%
Costa argues that once energy prices inflect upwards, "You're going to see ammonia prices going up... fertilizers... Corn prices going up." This is Second-Order Thinking. Energy (Natural Gas/Oil) is a primary input cost for modern agriculture (fertilizer production and diesel for machinery). If energy soars, food production costs soar, pushing up soft commodity prices. Long Agriculture and Fertilizer producers. Favorable weather creating bumper crops that suppress prices temporarily.
Costa argues that once energy prices inflect upwards, "You're going to see ammonia prices going up... fertilizers... Corn prices going up." This is Second-Order Thinking. Energy (Natural Gas/Oil) is a primary input cost for modern agriculture (fertilizer production and diesel for machinery). If energy soars, food production costs soar, pushing up soft commodity prices. Long Agriculture and Fertilizer producers. Favorable weather creating bumper crops that suppress prices temporarily.
Other
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