“There Is NO Evidence To Be Bearish Right Now” - Mark Newton
Speakers
Summary
Mark Newton argues there is no bearish evidence for US equities, remaining constructive on the market despite recent fast rally. He expects a pullback but sees higher year-end targets. He is bearish on crude oil and energy, bullish on gold for one more leg up, and recommends buying agriculture stocks and Bitcoin on dips. He also favors Japan and emerging markets on a weaker dollar outlook.
- Mark Newton is overall bullish on US equities, citing strong breadth and earnings.
- He expects a near-term 3-5% pullback but maintains a positive year-end view.
- Crude oil has topped technically; he expects a decline to $60.
- Gold will rally to new all-time highs into fall but then face a major decline.
- Agriculture and fertilizer stocks like Bunge and CF Industries are buyable on dips.
- Bitcoin lows are likely in; a pullback to the low $70k range offers a buying opportunity.
- He favors Japan and emerging markets as dollar weakness plays.
- Sentiment remains guarded despite the rally, supporting the bull case.
Trade Ideas
No evidence to be bearish, stay long
The US equity market has strong breadth improvement, robust earnings, and no evidence to justify turning bearish. Despite recent fast rally and potential near-term consolidation, the trend is bullish and the market should end the year higher.
Overweight tech, buy pullbacks
Technology, especially MAG7 and semiconductors, has rallied strongly and earnings and AI capex support further gains, though a near-term 3-5% pullback is likely. He recently went back to overweight tech and advises buying weakness.
Crude oil peaked, bearish outlook
Crude oil has peaked technically; momentum is negative, trendlines broken, and a break below $79 WTI could lead to a rapid decline to $60. Energy stocks are likely to underperform, and seasonality turns negative.
Buy agricultural stocks on dips
Agriculture and fertilizer stocks are attractive on dips; grains cycles point higher for the year, and pullbacks in Bunge (BG) and CF Industries (CF) should be bought for diversification and decent returns.
Gold to new highs into fall
Precious metals, specifically gold, have had a short-term top but will rally to new all-time highs into September/October before a major multi-year decline. He recommends staying long for the next leg higher.
Bitcoin buy on pullback to 70k
Bitcoin is unlikely to make new lows for 2026; a pullback to the low $70k area offers a good risk-reward buying opportunity. He now believes the lows are in and recommends using dips to add exposure.
Emerging markets long on weak dollar
Emerging markets make sense as a trade given the dollar is likely to pull back to new lows, which should fuel EM performance. However, he cautions about concentration in certain country ETFs.
Long Japan equities on dollar weakness
Japan equities are attractive for diversification given expected US dollar weakness. He likes the Japanese market as a way to play a weaker dollar and positive macro trends.
