He SOLD 50% of His Crypto Portfolio… What Does He Know?
Summary
- Martin sold 50% of his crypto portfolio due to macro risks from rising oil prices and deteriorating leading indicators, based on signals from macro expert Thomas.
- His framework involves de-risking when business cycle acceleration is at risk, with three scenarios: bull (oil prices drop), choppy (oil at $90-100), and bearish (oil at $120+ affecting economy).
- Sold tokens like COW, PENDLE, SKY, ALA, SYRUP, ETH, and SOL due to lack of significant buyback pressure, reduced buybacks, high premiums, or no near-term catalysts in a risk-off environment.
- Held BITCOIN as a hedge similar to gold, TESLA for AI and robotics growth (robo-taxis, Optimus), PUMP for high buyback multiple ($500M buybacks on $1.3B market cap), COINBASE for infrastructure build-out, and HYPE/LIGHTER for volatility-driven revenues from perpetuals.
- Specific reasons: COW has minimal net buy pressure; PENDLE depends on low yields; SKY and ALA reduced buybacks; ETH and SOL trade on narrative rather than fundamentals with high premiums.
- Sold 50% of FIGURE due to concerns about its lending business in a potential downturn, but remains bullish long-term.
- Sold parts of HOOD and GALAXY; plans to buy back GALAXY for its AI revenue potential expected in Q2.
- Market implication: Crypto may underperform if macro worsens, but tokens with strong buybacks or resilience could outperform selectively.
- Uncertainty: Probability of scenarios shifts daily with oil prices and conflict duration; Martin updates likelihood accordingly.
- Narrow edge: Focus on buyback multiples and revenue resilience (e.g., PUMP's ~2.3x multiple) to identify price support.
- Disagreement: Analyst John did not sell anything, indicating divergent views on macro risks within the team.
- Martin will redeploy cash only when leading indicators improve and risks diminish, not based on headline news.
Trade Ideas
Martin sold all positions in COW and PENDLE, citing lack of significant buyback pressure for COW and low revenues for PENDLE due to depressed yields and trading volumes. In a risk-off macro environment, tokens without strong buybacks or with business dependencies on market sentiment are likely to underperform. AVOID because fundamental weaknesses make them unattractive holdings near-term. If market sentiment improves or buybacks increase, these tokens could recover.
Martin sold 56% of ETH and 63-64% of SOL, stating they have high premiums, no near-term catalysts, and ETH trades on narrative rather than fees, while SOL's high fee multiples may not hold in tough times. With rising oil prices and macro uncertainty, investors may ignore infrastructure narratives, leading to underperformance. AVOID due to lack of immediate drivers and vulnerability to macro headwinds. If macro conditions improve or new catalysts emerge, ETH and SOL could outperform.
Martin held TESLA for its AI and robotics growth, specifically robo-taxis entering production and Optimus humanoid robots with improved capabilities. Tesla's advancements in autonomous vehicles and robotics may drive stock price appreciation independent of economic cycles. LONG due to long-term growth drivers and product execution. Economic downturn could affect demand, or execution delays might slow growth.
Martin held PUMP due to resilient revenues and a high buyback multiple ($500M annual buybacks on a $1.3B market cap). Significant buyback pressure relative to market cap provides price support and potential upside regardless of market conditions. LONG because the buyback multiple indicates strong fundamental value capture. If revenues decline or buybacks are reduced, the thesis weakens.
Martin held HYPE and LIGHTER, perpetuals protocols that can benefit from increased volatility, noting HYPE's real-world asset volumes surpassed crypto volumes. Even in down markets, volatility drives trading volumes and revenues for perpetuals exchanges, supporting token value. LONG due to revenue resilience and growth potential from volatility. If volatility decreases or competition intensifies, revenues could drop.
Up Next
This Milk Road Daily video, published March 20, 2026, features Martin Toman discussing PENDLE, COW, ETH, SOL, TSLA, PUMP, HYPE, LIT. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Martin Toman · Tickers: PENDLE, COW, ETH, SOL, TSLA, PUMP, HYPE, LIT