Craig Fuller

A modal shift from trucking to intermodal rail is accelerating because the spread between trucking rates and rail freight is 34%, near an all-time high. Railroads are the primary beneficiaries, and intermodal logistics companies like J.B. Hunt and Hub Group are gaining share.

The freight recession ended in November 2025. Ocean container, domestic trucking, and rail volumes are all rising, and the freight industry is feeling incredibly bullish. The pickup reflects strong consumer and industrial activity.

A modal shift from trucking to intermodal rail is accelerating because the spread between trucking rates and rail freight is 34%, near an all-time high. Railroads are the primary beneficiaries, and intermodal logistics companies like J.B. Hunt and Hub Group are gaining share.

Flatbed trucking demand is "on fire" with rejection rates as high as 50% (vs. ~4% a year ago for the broader market), decoupled from the weak housing market. This surge is driven by industrial activity in the Midwest (steel, aluminum, heavy machinery) related to manufacturing plant construction, data centers, and energy infrastructure, which shows up in freight data months before other indicators. The flatbed segment is a leading, high-confidence indicator of a burgeoning US industrial renaissance, implying strong demand for carriers specializing in this equipment. A sudden halt or reversal in industrial capex and construction spending.

The speaker is "incredibly bullish" on trucking, citing re-industrialization driving higher demand and policy-driven tightening of driver supply. The truckload rejection index has surged to 14% (from 4% a year ago), indicating carriers are gaining pricing power. Proposed immigration laws could remove ~200k drivers, structurally reducing capacity. The confluence of rising industrial demand and a constrained supply of drivers creates a favorable setup for significant rate increases and operating leverage for trucking companies, making the sector investable. A severe economic recession that collapses goods demand volume, overriding the supply constraints.

Craig Fuller states the freight market is "the most bullish I have seen since COVID," with aggressive freight charts and strong demand indicators. The U.S. domestic economy is roaring, industrial activity is firming, and freight demand is recovering from a recession, driven by manufacturing and infrastructure spending. LONG due to robust fundamentals, recovery from the freight recession, and positive cyclical tailwinds. Economic slowdown or sustained high oil prices could dampen freight demand and profitability.