Why 2026 Could End In A Massive Blow-Off Top w/ Andreas Steno Larsen
Speakers
Andreas Steno Larsen
— Founder, Steno Research
Summary
Andreas Steno Larsen discusses the structural bear market in bonds, the underappreciated liquidity boost from the ESLR reform, and his strong bullish stance on semiconductors and equities. He highlights key risks from the Iran war and potential rate hikes, and advises watching South Korean trade data as a leading indicator for semiconductor demand.
- Andreas sees a structural bear market in bonds due to inflation uncertainty and rising term premiums.
- The ESLR reform frees up ~$1.2 trillion in bank balance sheet capacity for repo transactions, boosting liquidity.
- He is heavily invested in semiconductors and remains bullish, citing strong demand and pricing power.
- He recommends monitoring South Korean trade data (SK Hynix, Samsung) for signs of semiconductor demand weakening.
- Andreas expects the S&P 500 to continue rallying, with a potential move to 8,000, driven by liquidity.
- Key risk: if the Iran war does not end within 6-8 weeks, rate hikes could derail the cycle.
- He is also watching the upcoming IPO bonanza (SpaceX, OpenAI) as a potential liquidity drain and cycle-end signal.
- Overall, he is fully invested and sees 2026 as potentially the final year of the cycle.
Trade Ideas
Bullish on semiconductors, demand still accelerating.
Andreas is heavily invested in semiconductors (20% of portfolio) and remains bullish. He sees strong demand driven by AI, memory chips, and power semiconductors, with no signs of demand dropping. Key indicators like South Korean trade data (from SK Hynix, Samsung) are still accelerating. Micron and other executives are upbeat about scarce supply relative to demand for the next two years, giving pricing power. The semiconductor trade is crowded but the demand cycle has not turned.
Bullish on S&P 500, expects further rally.
Andreas agrees with the host's suggestion that the S&P 500 could go to 8,000. He is still bullish and close to 100% invested, citing strong liquidity from the ESLR reform (freeing up ~$1.2 trillion for repo transactions) and Treasury General Account drawdown that will inject dollars into the system through June. He sees euphoric sentiment as a risk later, but not yet.
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This Milk Road Daily video, published May 21, 2026, features Andreas Steno Larsen discussing SMH, SPY. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Andreas Steno Larsen · Tickers: SMH, SPY