The $1 Trillion Stablecoin Shift That Could Break Global Banks w/ Geoffrey Kendrick
Speakers
Summary
- Geoffrey Kendrick maintains a $100K year-end 2026 price target for Bitcoin ($BTC), having revised his view that the $60K low may have been the cycle bottom after observing resilient price action during Middle East tensions.
- He posits that geopolitical conflicts can drive user adoption, citing Ukraine's stablecoin flows accounting for 4% of the global total as a prior example, and suggests the current environment may be attracting new users to digital asset payment rails.
- Stablecoins are framed as a direct threat to banks, particularly in emerging markets, with an estimated $200B (two-thirds of the current $300B supply) already representing EM savings fleeing local inflation/political risk.
- He forecasts an additional $1 trillion in stablecoin inflows from EM savings over the next few years, which would require issuers to buy ~$1T in U.S. T-bills, potentially reshaping U.S. debt issuance (more bills, less long-term debt) and supporting the dollar while risking bank runs and currency crises in vulnerable EMs.
- U.S. corporate treasurers are showing "exponential" interest in stablecoins to optimize global cash management, reduce trapped capital, and improve payment efficiency in difficult jurisdictions.
- Tokenization is expected to follow stablecoin adoption; if 10% of transactions move on-chain, it could drive demand for ~$750B in on-chain money market funds (from $10B today) by 2028, with tokenized assets overall reaching $2T.
- Long-term, he forecasts a convergence where TradFi and DeFi meet, potentially via user-friendly apps that automatically optimize yield, driving financial inclusion without users needing to understand the underlying mechanics.
- He expects Ethereum ($ETH) to outperform Bitcoin ($BTC), forecasting the ETH/BTC cross to rise to 4% (implying $4K ETH if BTC is $100K) by end-2026, citing TradFi's preference to build on Ethereum's secure Layer 1 first, which will drive network activity and fees.
- His long-term (2030) forecasts are $500K for Bitcoin and $40,000 for Ethereum, implying significant absolute upside and ETH outperformance.
Trade Ideas
Speaker explicitly states he is "sticking with 100K forecasts for Bitcoin by the end of this year" and later provides a long-term (2030) forecast of $500K. The thesis is supported by continued ETF inflows returning, the institutionalization of the asset class bringing in new capital, and digital assets looking through near-term macro noise (like potential rate hikes from an oil shock) to a medium-term cutting cycle. LONG due to explicit price targets representing ~50% upside from current levels by year-end and significant long-term appreciation. A more severe oil price shock that forces sustained hawkish central bank policy, negatively impacting risk assets. Also, failure of regulatory clarity to further institutionalize the asset class.
Speaker states "ETH outperforms now" and forecasts the ETH/BTC cross to rise from ~3% to 4% by end-2026 (implying $4K ETH if BTC is $100K). His 2030 target is $40,000 ETH. Outperformance thesis is based on TradFi and institutional builders preferring Ethereum's Layer 1 for initial deployments (e.g., BlackRock's BUIDL) due to its security and reliability. Increased on-chain activity from stablecoins, tokenization (money market funds, equities), and other use cases will drive fees and demand for ETH. LONG for significant absolute upside and explicit outperformance versus Bitcoin. Failure of the predicted tokenization wave to materialize, or a shift in institutional preference to other Layer 1 or Layer 2 networks that reduces Ethereum's activity capture.
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This Milk Road Daily video, published March 24, 2026, features Geoffrey Kendrick discussing BTC, ETH. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Geoffrey Kendrick · Tickers: BTC, ETH