Matt Hougan

Central banks doubled gold purchases in 2022, but gold prices didn't go parabolic until 2025 because the market had to work through existing sellers. Similarly, Bitcoin ETF demand (2024) vastly exceeds new supply, but price is currently capped by existing holders selling at psychological levels ($100k). Bitcoin is following Gold's exact playbook with a time lag. Once the "sell wall" from long-term holders is exhausted, the structural demand shock (ETFs + Institutions) will cause a parabolic repricing similar to Gold's recent move. Long Bitcoin as it is in the early stages of a supply-shock driven rally. Regulatory reversal or a failure of institutional adoption to sustain momentum.

"When the US started bombing Iran... every market around the world is closed... And so what people did is they shifted onto Hyperliquid. And that's where they were trading oil." Traditional finance operates on a 5-day, limited-hour schedule, leaving them exposed to weekend geopolitical shocks. Because decentralized exchanges operate 24/7, macro hedge funds will be forced to onboard onto platforms like Hyperliquid to hedge their real-world asset exposure (like oil) during off-hours, driving massive institutional volume and user growth to the protocol. LONG. Hyperliquid has a first-mover advantage in capturing institutional weekend trading volume for tokenized real-world assets. Traditional exchanges eventually upgrade their infrastructure to offer 24/7 trading, or regulatory crackdowns prevent TradFi funds from using offshore/decentralized perpetual futures platforms.

Avalanche offers a differentiated L1 architecture with customizable blockchains for enterprises, which is finding meaningful traction, particularly in real-world assets (up 950% in the last year). This makes it one of the most interesting designs in the L1 space. Bitwise's Avalanche ETF (BAVA) provides staked exposure, maximizing yield by staking about 70% of assets while retaining ETF liquidity.

The broad altcoin market suffered a 50-60% drawdown last year (a hidden bear market). However, projects like Ethereum and Solana have "clear traction on stablecoins and tokenization." The recovery won't be a rising tide for all "zombie coins." Capital will concentrate into "High Quality" Layer 1s that serve as the infrastructure for the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) and stablecoin issuance. Long the leaders of the smart contract wars (ETH/SOL) as they emerge from the bear market. Continued regulatory hostility or failure to solve technical scaling issues (e.g., fragmentation).

The broad altcoin market suffered a 50-60% drawdown last year (a hidden bear market). However, projects like Ethereum and Solana have "clear traction on stablecoins and tokenization." The recovery won't be a rising tide for all "zombie coins." Capital will concentrate into "High Quality" Layer 1s that serve as the infrastructure for the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) and stablecoin issuance. Long the leaders of the smart contract wars (ETH/SOL) as they emerge from the bear market. Continued regulatory hostility or failure to solve technical scaling issues (e.g., fragmentation).

Hougan argues Coinbase has a market share that is "bigger than it should be" because "well-funded competitors were hard to come by" due to regulatory hostility. He also notes Coinbase has "turned on stock trading." This "Regulatory Moat" has created a monopoly-like advantage similar to if Schwab had no competitors for a decade. Even as new entrants arrive, Coinbase's entrenched liquidity and user base (sticky ecosystem) will sustain its premium. LONG COIN as the primary beneficiary of the "Regulatory Moat." Fee compression if traditional finance (TradFi) giants finally enter aggressively.

BlackRock bought UNI tokens, listed Bidd on Uniswap, and the CFO stated they plan to tokenize *all* ETFs in 3-12 months. This is a "fat accompli." BlackRock is effectively underwriting Uniswap as the infrastructure for future financial rails. BLK benefits from the asset management fees of tokenized products, while UNI benefits from the legitimacy and volume of institutional DeFi usage. LONG. A play on the convergence of TradFi (BLK) and DeFi (UNI). Regulatory crackdown on DeFi protocols requiring KYC (though BlackRock's "Bidd" is permissioned, mitigating this).

Prediction markets are booming, and traditional finance is catching up. Hougan explicitly mentions CME is "now doing its own prediction markets." Prediction markets are gaining mass adoption (Uber-style trajectory). As regulatory clarity improves, regulated incumbents like CME are best positioned to capture institutional volume in this new asset class, stealing share from offshore/crypto-native platforms. LONG. A regulated way to play the growth of the prediction market sector. Strict US regulations banning election betting or prediction markets entirely.

BlackRock bought UNI tokens, listed Bidd on Uniswap, and the CFO stated they plan to tokenize *all* ETFs in 3-12 months. This is a "fat accompli." BlackRock is effectively underwriting Uniswap as the infrastructure for future financial rails. BLK benefits from the asset management fees of tokenized products, while UNI benefits from the legitimacy and volume of institutional DeFi usage. LONG. A play on the convergence of TradFi (BLK) and DeFi (UNI). Regulatory crackdown on DeFi protocols requiring KYC (though BlackRock's "Bidd" is permissioned, mitigating this).

The crypto market is maturing and will follow the trajectory of equities and bonds, where the vast majority of capital sits in diversified index funds rather than single-asset products. Investors will eventually migrate away from picking single winners (like just holding BTC or ETH) toward broad-market exposure to capture the entire asset class growth. Bitwise's BITW is cited as the largest crypto index ETF, positioning for this migration. Crypto correlation remains high; if Bitcoin fails, the index likely fails too.

Gold is "telling you that the world is concerned about debasement" and wants self-sovereign assets. Gold is the leading indicator for the liquidity/debasement trade. While the trade is explicitly about Bitcoin following Gold, Gold itself remains the primary signal and beneficiary of the geopolitical shift to "realpolitik" and sovereign buying. Long Gold as the established hedge against debasement that is currently breaking out. A sudden strengthening of the USD or hawkish Fed policy.

Stablecoin adoption via edge cases like Meta paying creators and DoorDash paying gig workers will drive usage of the underlying blockchains. Solana and Polygon are direct beneficiaries because Meta uses USDC on Solana and Polygon, making them attractive investments as stablecoin usage scales.

Hougan points out, "Meta announced it was rolling out stable coins across three billion people... and crypto is like 'meh'." The market is pricing Meta as a social media company, ignoring its potential to become the world's largest fintech/wallet provider overnight. This "gap between perception and reality" regarding their crypto integration is a mispriced option on the stock. LONG META as a covert crypto-infrastructure play. Regulatory blockage of the stablecoin rollout; failure to gain traction against native crypto wallets.

Hougan explicitly names Chainlink as a project with "strong fundamentals" that has done really well recently alongside the broader recovery. As the market shifts toward "fundamentals" over "memes," infrastructure plays that actually facilitate the movement of data and value (Oracles) will attract institutional capital. Long LINK as a fundamental infrastructure play. Competition from newer oracle solutions or lack of value accrual to the token.

"If you don't own Circle, if you don't have exposure to PayPal... you may be missing where the value accrues." The crypto thesis is evolving from just buying coins to owning the equity of companies building the rails (Stablecoins/Payments). Since Circle is not yet public, PayPal represents the regulated equity proxy for the explosion of stablecoin usage and payment modernization. Long PYPL as a "pick and shovel" play on stablecoin adoption. Margin compression in their legacy payment business or slow crypto integration.