Why Geopolitical Chaos Is Bullish For the US w/ Eric Wallerstein

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  May 19, 2026 at 14:45  |  44:28  |  Milk Road Daily
Speakers
Eric Wallerstein — Principal and Chief Macro Strategist at Clock Tower Group

Summary

Eric Wallerstein, chief macro strategist at Clock Tower Group, argues that geopolitical chaos is actually bullish for the US, as the US economy remains resilient while Europe fractures. He recommends long US equities, short Spain, and long Poland, and advises investors to maintain core exposure to US markets while trading on top. The discussion covers the Trump-Xi meeting, the Donro doctrine, Fed policy, and potential EU collapse.

  • Eric Wallerstein is bullish on US nominal growth and expects continued resilience.
  • He sees the EU fragmenting under pressure from US withdrawal and internal fractures.
  • He recommends shorting Spain due to its weak fundamentals and China dependency.
  • He is bullish on Poland due to high defense spending and productive fiscal policy.
  • He expects non-euro European currencies to appreciate.
  • He downplays recession fears and sees AI as a key driver of US growth.
  • He advises investors to maintain core US equity exposure and trade on top.
  • He argues the Iran conflict hurts Europe and China more than the US.
Trade Ideas
Eric Wallerstein Principal and Chief Macro Strategist at Clock Tower Group 30:53
Short Spain on EU fragmentation risk.
Spain is the most vulnerable to EU fragmentation due to its large bilateral trade deficit with China, minimal defense spending, heavy welfare state, and reliance on US/German security. If Spain tries to leave the EU or pivots to China, it will face a rude awakening. This makes Spain a short.
EWP MED
Eric Wallerstein Principal and Chief Macro Strategist at Clock Tower Group 36:02
Long Poland on fiscal discipline.
Poland spends the highest portion of GDP on defense (4.5%), invests heavily in education and productivity-enhancing areas rather than welfare, and remains outside the euro. It will benefit from any EU fragmentation through capital inflows and currency appreciation. Poland is a long.
EPOL MED
Eric Wallerstein Principal and Chief Macro Strategist at Clock Tower Group 38:27
US equities remain attractive long-term.
The US economy is resilient due to deregulation, increased bank lending, a productivity boom in manufacturing, and AI-driven earnings growth. Iran conflict hurts US growth slightly but hurts Europe and other regions much more, making the US a relative beneficiary. Investors should maintain core exposure to US equities.
SPY HIGH
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This Milk Road Daily video, published May 19, 2026, features Eric Wallerstein discussing EWP, EPOL, SPY. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Eric Wallerstein  · Tickers: EWP, EPOL, SPY