Stocks Keep Hitting New Highs… Even As Macro Gets Worse

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  May 28, 2026 at 19:30  |  42:36  |  Milk Road Daily
Speakers
Tony Greer — Founder, TG Macro

Summary

Tony Greer discusses his pivot from natural resources to technology, remains bullish on gold as a core long, sees a shorting opportunity in upcoming AI IPOs, and expects metals and mining to rally after oil declines. He also highlights a breakout in aerospace and defense and notes the resilience of semiconductors.

  • Oil prices are falling despite the closed Strait of Hormuz, suggesting the geopolitical risk premium is fading.
  • Gold is in a strong bullish trend and Tony keeps capital there as a hedge against fiat debasement.
  • Semiconductors continue to rally, shrugging off rate spikes and Nvidia's earnings selloff.
  • Aerospace and defense is breaking out and offers a trading opportunity.
  • Upcoming AI IPOs may be shorted at the offering as insiders sell into liquidity.
  • Metals and mining sectors could resume their bull market once oil prices decline further.
  • Tony abandons his earlier bullish natural resources trade due to lack of follow-through in inflation data.
  • The host John Gillan guides the conversation on macro and sector rotation.
Trade Ideas
Tony Greer Founder, TG Macro 3:32
Avoid oil, rally over.
Oil's geopolitical risk premium is fading despite the Strait of Hormuz closure. Spreads have returned to pre-conflict lows, supply is coming online, and the episode appears close to ending. Tony is abandoning the expectation of higher oil prices and pivoting away from natural resources.
WTI MED
Tony Greer Founder, TG Macro 9:11
Semiconductor rally likely continue.
Semiconductors are in a powerful uptrend that shrugged off an inflation-driven rate spike. The AI narrative continues to drive the sector. Nvidia's earnings selloff was temporary and semis as a whole are making new all-time highs, suggesting the rally has further to run.
SMH MED
Tony Greer Founder, TG Macro 13:00
Long aerospace and defense.
Aerospace and defense is breaking out today. Given the market's sector rotation, this area is ripe to trade higher and offers alpha opportunities for the rest of the year.
ITA MED
Tony Greer Founder, TG Macro 17:53
Long gold as safe haven.
Gold is in a strong bullish technical trend with low volatility. It serves as a store of value and a hedge against fiat debasement. Tony keeps his capital in gold as a bank and expects future fiscal deficits and military spending to reignite the gold rally.
GLD HIGH
Tony Greer Founder, TG Macro 27:00
Long metals and mining later.
After oil prices recede meaningfully, metals and mining stocks (including gold miners and industrial miners) will benefit from lower input costs and resume their bull market. The debasement trade is not cancelled, just waiting for oil to stop dominating attention.
XLB MED
Tony Greer Founder, TG Macro 37:48
Short AI IPOs at offering.
Upcoming AI IPOs (e.g., OpenAI, Anthropic) will likely be priced at unsustainable highs. Insiders and early investors will sell into the offering for liquidity, making the first few days the top for years. Tony plans to short them on the IPO day.
AI IPOs MED
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This Milk Road Daily video, published May 28, 2026, features Tony Greer discussing WTI, SMH, ITA, GLD, XLB, AI IPOs. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Tony Greer  · Tickers: WTI, SMH, ITA, GLD, XLB, AI IPOs