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15:14
Jun 02
Jun 02
MSTR 1ST
BTC
STRC 1ST
▾
HIGH
MSTR stock is unattractive due to dilution.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock is unattractive because the company's capital structure is burdened with ~$1.7 billion in annual preferred dividends, no operating income, and the equity is being diluted at non-accretive levels, making further dilution destructive to the stock price.
MSTR AVOID
Bitcoin faces selling pressure from Strategy.
Bitcoin is unattractive because MicroStrategy, the largest corporate holder, is now a net seller of Bitcoin to cover preferred dividends, creating downward price pressure and negative sentiment in the market.
BTC AVOID
STRC dividend likely to be cut.
MicroStrategy's preferred stock (STRC) is risky because the company will likely be forced to cut the dividend, causing the preferred shares to fall 30-40% as the cash obligations are unsustainable given no operating income.
STRC AVOID
HIGH
16:27
Jun 01
Jun 01
ANTHROPIC 1ST
SPACEX 1ST
MSTR FLIP
STRC 1ST
▾
HIGH
Anthropic IPO valuations are way too high
Anthropic's IPO valuation at nearly $1 trillion and growing is far too high. Private exchange trades already at $1.3-1.8 trillion are a bad idea. Entry valuations are way too high, making it nearly impossible for public investors to achieve significant returns. The IPO is priced for perfection and leaves no room for upside.
ANTHROPIC AVOID
SpaceX IPO valuation is too high
SpaceX is targeting a $2 trillion valuation with a 90x price-to-sales ratio. It is impossible to get a 10-bagger at such a high entry point. Like other mega IPOs, the valuation leaves little room for public market gains and likely leads to poor post-IPO performance.
SPACEX AVOID
MicroStrategy capital stack is unsustainable
MicroStrategy faces a three-body problem: its capital stack (equity, Bitcoin, preferred debt) is unsustainable unless Bitcoin rises >11.5% annually. Bitcoin's growth is slowing due to size, and the sale of even a tiny amount of BTC signals weakness. Both MSTR and STRC are selling below par, indicating higher financing costs. The model is pro-cyclical and dangerous.
MSTR AVOID
STRC AVOID
HIGH
21:17
May 29
May 29
17:39
May 29
May 29
04:59
May 29
May 29
23:43
May 28
May 28
ETH 1ST
▾
MED
ETH is still doing well.
Despite competition from Solana, Tron, and Hyperliquid, Ethereum is still performing well and is the dominant network. The broader crypto market is down due to AI taking attention, not because Ethereum is fundamentally weak. ETH remains a strong asset.
ETH LONG
MED
16:00
May 28
May 28
SOL 1ST
ETH 1ST
▾
MED
Solana positioned for mainstream adoption.
Max is bullish on Solana, arguing it is one of two viable public blockchains (alongside Ethereum) for the global financial system to move on-chain. He believes Solana has sufficient scale, a strong developer ecosystem, and a better post-quantum roadmap that will have minimal performance impact. He expects Solana to capture significant adoption as the regulatory environment favors decentralized networks.
SOL LONG
ETH lacks rerating catalyst.
David sold all his ETH because he believes ETH lacks momentum for a rerating, faces structural value capture issues from L2 margins and the fat app thesis, and lacks executional leadership at the Ethereum Foundation. He sees better opportunity costs elsewhere and expects ETH to stagnate or underperform relative to other assets.
ETH AVOID
MED
15:52
May 28
May 28
16:27
May 27
May 27
15:08
May 26
May 26
01:15
May 24
May 24
00:52
May 24
May 24
23:21
May 23
May 23
ETH
SPY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Clarity Act could boost Ether.
The Clarity Act, if passed, would provide regulatory clarity for Ether (ETH), potentially boosting its price. Noelle suggests ETH could benefit from the act because it currently lacks the clarity Bitcoin already enjoys, and an ETH rally would likely lift Bitcoin as well due to their tandem trading. The market may not have fully priced this in.
ETH LONG
S&P 500 top-heavy, risk of correction.
The widening gap between the market-cap-weighted S&P 500 and the equal-weight index is reminiscent of 1999 before the dot-com bust, indicating extreme concentration and top-heaviness. Noelle warns this is a fragile setup that historically tips over, suggesting the S&P 500 is vulnerable to a correction.
SPY AVOID
HIGH
05:33
May 22
May 22
HYPE 1ST
▾
HIGH
Hyperliquid is a cycle asset to own.
Hyperliquid is emerging as a decentralized trading venue for pre-IPO perpetual futures and other RWA perps. The speaker explicitly states that Hyperliquid is 'one of the assets that you want to own this cycle,' citing its strategic positioning, growing volume in pre-IPO markets, and the tailwind from major upcoming IPOs. The partnership with Coinbase to use USDC further strengthens its network effect.
HYPE LONG
HIGH
05:06
May 22
May 22
HYPE 1ST
ETH 1ST
▾
HIGH
Hyperliquid is a top asset this cycle.
Hyperliquid is emerging as a decentralized trading venue and the strategic alignment with Coinbase validates its value. It is a key asset to own this cycle, with Coinbase installing itself as collateral manager capturing a major portion of the revenue.
HYPE LONG
ETH benefits from Clarity Act passage.
Passage of the Clarity Act would provide much-needed regulatory clarity for Ethereum, which currently lacks it, potentially boosting ETH price. While Bitcoin already has clarity, ETH could benefit more directly, and the overall crypto market could see a positive catalyst.
ETH LONG
HIGH
16:00
May 21
May 21
COIN 1ST
HOOD 1ST
▾
MED
Existing distribution wins in US perps
In the US regulated perpetuals market, platforms with existing distribution like Robinhood and Coinbase will dominate, because historical patterns in crypto show that established incumbents with large user bases win. Robinhood has already successfully expanded into crypto, and Coinbase has strong domestic retail distribution despite a weak offshore perp product.
COIN LONG
HOOD LONG
MED
22:33
May 20
May 20
15:05
May 20
May 20
TSLA
HYPE
▾
HIGH
Tesla manufacturing scale will drive earnings.
Tesla (TSLA) is a long because Elon Musk's manufacturing scale advantage is unmatched. As AI/GPU demand grows, Tesla's ability to produce at scale will translate into earnings growth.
TSLA LONG
HYPE is the only viable token this cycle.
Hyperliquid (HYPE) is the only viable token this cycle due to its strong narrative as an on-chain everything exchange, Coinbase partnership, and liquidity. Token holders are not selling unlocks, leading to price appreciation.
HYPE LONG
HIGH
15:15
May 19
May 19
17:59
May 18
May 18
HYPE 1ST
▾
HIGH
Hyperliquid is an asset to own.
Hyperliquid is emerging as a dominant decentralized trading venue. The deal with Coinbase and Circle to replace USDH with USDC as the aligned quote asset, with 90% of reserve revenue flowing back to Hyperliquid for HYPE buybacks, makes it a major winner. This is one of the assets to own this cycle.
HYPE LONG
HIGH
19:36
May 15
May 15
14:24
May 14
May 14
HYPE
COIN 1ST
▾
HIGH
Hyperliquid's market share and moat strong
Hyperliquid has proven its resilience and maintained a dominant ~50% share of the perpetuals market despite competition, with a strong community and developer ecosystem. Its recent revenue diversification via the USDC yield-sharing deal with Coinbase and Circle adds stable recurring revenue, making it a formidable offshore exchange worth monitoring.
HYPE WATCH
Coinbase can 6x by 2031
Coinbase is positioned to benefit from AI-native finance and agent commerce, leveraging its early lead with Base chain and X42 payment protocol, and stablecoin USDC distribution, potentially achieving a $300 billion market cap by 2031 (approximately 6x from current levels) with $4 billion in annual agentic revenue.
COIN LONG
HIGH
02:46
May 14
May 14
13:01
May 13
May 13
BTC
▾
HIGH
Money printing bull case for Bitcoin
The AI bubble will end in a deflationary bust that threatens the fractional banking system. The only resolution is massive money printing by central banks, which is the bull case for Bitcoin. Hayes believes they will always print enough money, making this the core investment thesis for his entire portfolio.
BTC LONG
HIGH
11:00
May 13
May 13
GLD
TLT 1ST
▾
HIGH
Gold as alternative reserve asset
Sovereign nations will increasingly choose to save in gold rather than US Treasuries because gold is a physical store of value that cannot be blocked by geopolitical disruptions. This shift is part of a broader recalibration of reserve asset preferences away from dollar-denominated paper.
GLD LONG
Structural secular decline in Treasury demand
The Iran war and physical supply disruptions (e.g., Australia's jet fuel crisis) are causing sovereign nations to realize that holding US Treasuries and dollar assets does not guarantee access to physical goods when trade routes are blocked. As a result, nations will structurally shift their savings away from Treasuries toward physical commodities, infrastructure, and gold, leading to a secular decline in demand for US Treasuries. This will force the Fed to print money to absorb the selling.
TLT SHORT
HIGH
12:57
May 12
May 12
HYPE
BTC
NEAR 1ST
ZEC
▾
HIGH
Revenue buybacks and real volume drive HYPE.
Hype token benefits from excellent tokenomics (no VC overhang, 97% revenue buyback), real organic volume (low ADV/OI ratio), and a first-mover advantage in weekend trading of traditional indices on a permissionless perp DEX. The team has been responsible with unlocks, and the platform survived low-fee competition.
HYPE LONG
Inflationary war spending bullish for Bitcoin.
Wars, AI capex, and commodity stockpiling are inflationary, forcing central banks to print money. This liquidity creation is bullish for Bitcoin as a hard asset that cannot be debased.
BTC LONG
Shielded Zcash integration drives NEAR fees.
NEAR's integration with shielded Zcash via intents enables anonymous swaps to any crypto. Each transaction pays a fee to the NEAR protocol. If volumes grow, NEAR could become deflationary, driving the price up significantly.
NEAR LONG
Privacy need grows; Zcash undervalued.
Zcash has the strongest cryptography for private transactions. As AI and big tech make on-chain surveillance easier, demand for privacy will grow. Zcash is significantly undervalued relative to Bitcoin, offering an asymmetric bet. He holds it as his largest position outside Bitcoin.
ZEC LONG
HIGH
19:05
May 11
May 11
MU 1ST
WTI
▾
HIGH
Micron cheap at 8x forward P/E
Micron (MU) is still cheap at an 8x forward P/E despite a 10x run, and the AI capex cycle is sustained by the most profitable companies, making the stock attractive.
MU LONG
Oil higher for longer due to conflict
Oil prices will stay moderately higher for longer because Iran's demands, regional opposition, and the US financial blockade create sustained supply pressure that markets have not fully priced in.
WTI LONG
HIGH
20:09
May 08
May 08
15:10
May 08
May 08
04:32
May 07
May 07
CANTON
▾
MED
Canton positions well for institutional privacy demand.
Privacy is essential for institutional adoption of crypto; blockspace is commoditized, so privacy becomes a key differentiator and moat; private state is harder to migrate, creating stickier network effects; Canton, as a privacy-focused chain already adopted by major financial institutions, is well positioned to benefit from this trend.
CANTON LONG
MED
14:51
May 05
May 05
WLD 1ST
CANTON 1ST
▾
MED
Worldcoin perfect for proving humanity
AI deep fakes make it increasingly hard to know if online interactions are human. Worldcoin built a technology using zero-knowledge cryptography to prove humanity while preserving privacy. It is a great example of a crypto solution to the provenance problem and is well positioned as the need for digital identity verification grows.
WLD LONG
Canton well positioned for privacy era
Privacy is becoming the most important moat in crypto as institutions adopt. Block space is commoditized, so privacy chains create stronger network effects due to the difficulty of migrating encrypted state. Canton is a privacy chain already used by major financial institutions and is well positioned for this next era where most of the world's finance moves on chain.
CANTON LONG
MED
17:52
May 04
May 04
BTC
WTI FLIP
BNO
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin is best store of value
Bitcoin is a pure store of value with a fixed supply of 21 million coins, making it a better inflation hedge than gold. It has a constructive technical setup, having broken its 150-day moving average, and historically catches up to gold during geopolitical stress. Paul Tudor Jones also endorses it as the best inflation hedge. The macro backdrop supports further upside.
BTC LONG
Oil prices higher for longer
Oil prices will remain elevated for an extended period due to the Iran blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, which reduces supply, and strong global earnings growth that supports demand. The market is shrugging off high oil prices, and investors should remain overweight energy as an inflation hedge.
WTI LONG
BNO LONG
HIGH
13:00
May 03
May 03
05:08
May 03
May 03
23:08
May 01
May 01
AAVE
ZRO
▾
MED
Aave and LayerZero too big to fail.
Aave and LayerZero are too integral to the crypto ecosystem, have deep resources and relationships, and made users whole after the KelpDAO incident, making them too big to fail and resilient going forward.
AAVE LONG
ZRO LONG
MED
04:58
May 01
May 01
16:00
Apr 30
Apr 30
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