Name: O FUNDO DO BITCOIN JÁ PASSOU? O QUE ESPERAR AGORA? | Crypto Never Sleeps #62
Uploaded: 2026-09-05T21:00:06+00:00
Duration: 3276 s

Speakers

Felipe Sant'ana — Paradigma

Summary

Felipe Sant'Anna discusses where crypto stands in 2026, arguing Bitcoin's cyclical bottom likely has passed and the market is entering a 'crypto spring' but not yet euphoria. He covers why layer-2 tokens are dead, why memecoin appetite remains, and why tokenized stocks, perp DEXs, Hyperliquid, and Robinhood are becoming the next speculative centers. He also highlights robotics and prediction markets as growing themes, while flagging AI-bubble, hacking, and quantum-computing risks.

Bitcoin's drawdown from around $120k to near $60k was framed as a typical cyclical bear market, and Felipe assigns 75% odds the bottom already happened.
Bitcoin reclaiming the 200-day moving average and the clearing of the Strategy/Saylor forced-sale overhang are cited as bullish signals.
Layer-2 tokens such as Matic/Arbitrum/Optimism/Mantle are called dead, with value shifting to applications at the top of the stack.
Memecoins and crypto risk appetite are described as still alive despite the drawdown.
Tokenized stocks, perp DEXs, Hyperliquid and Robinhood Chain are highlighted as the strongest current crypto narratives.
Prediction markets are growing abroad and eating lottery-like revenue, while Brazil has mostly banned them.
Felipe says AI is in a bubble and sees robotics as an early bullish physical-AI theme.
AI-assisted hacks and quantum computing are flagged as structural risks to crypto.

Ideas

Felipe Sant'ana Paradigma 10:01

Memecoins are not dead

The market's appetite for high-risk, headless assets such as memecoins remains intact. When prices rise and euphoria returns, traders move further out the risk curve, so memecoins have not died.

Felipe Sant'ana Paradigma 14:20

Layer-2 tokens are dead

Second-layer blockchain tokens are dead to him because too many L1/L2 platforms were built relative to users and apps, and the 'fat protocol' narrative collapsed. He names Matic/Polygon, Arbitrum, Mantle and Optimism as examples of tokens that rallied in prior cycles but no longer capture value.

Felipe Sant'ana Paradigma 17:27

Bitcoin cyclical bottom likely passed

Felipe estimates a 75% chance that Bitcoin's cyclical bottom is already behind, after a typical 50% drawdown from the 2025 high to near $60k, smaller than prior cycles. He notes Bitcoin reclaimed its 200-day moving average, the Strategy/Michael Saylor forced-sale overhang has cleared, and the market appears to be front-running the four-year cycle's expected October/November turn; if Bitcoin does not make a new low by November, he says this is a bull market.

Felipe Sant'ana Paradigma 25:14

Robotics is an early bullish theme

Felipe is bullish on robotics as the physical manifestation of the AI wave. He sees humanoids and other robot form factors such as companion devices and home helpers at the start of a broad product cycle, and compares potential displacement of pets to how cars displaced horses.

Felipe Sant'ana Paradigma 35:53

Pons is an interesting altcoin

Felipe says he has liked Pons, an altcoin that has been drawing market attention and that he is positioning in, while acknowledging altcoin drawdowns can be extreme.

Felipe Sant'ana Paradigma 36:13

Altseason dead; trade selective altcoins

A broad altseason is dead because the number of altcoins is too large for all to rise together. Instead, investors must pick hot narratives; risky small coins can still outperform Bitcoin while speculative appetite exists, and now may be a moment for risk-on in altcoins with small size.

Felipe Sant'ana Paradigma 37:34

Robinhood is crypto's new speculative hub

Felipe sees Robinhood Chain as the new home of crypto speculation this cycle, similar to how Ethereum and Solana hosted prior speculative manias; moonshot coins are launching there and the ecosystem is showing strong speculative activity.

Felipe Sant'ana Paradigma 38:07

Perp DEXs and tokenized stocks strong

Perp DEXs and tokenized equities are the strongest crypto narrative and the most promising sector this cycle. Hyperliquid is leading perp DEX activity and already has tokenized stocks, while Coinbase and US exchanges are moving into tokenized equities; on-chain activity is creating GameStop-style dynamics in tokenized stock supplies.

Felipe Sant'ana Paradigma 42:18

Prediction markets are growing rapidly

Prediction markets are growing strongly abroad and structurally eating revenue from lottery-like products. Robinhood already generates more revenue from prediction markets than from daily options, and Hyperliquid and Coinbase are entering the space; Brazil banned most domestic prediction markets.

Felipe Sant'ana Paradigma 48:57

AI is in a bubble

AI is in a bubble because transformative technologies routinely attract more investment than near-term returns can support. The upcoming Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs are defining events: if they open and rally, risk appetite remains; if they fade, it may mark the AI bubble top and spread to other risk assets.

O FUNDO DO BITCOIN JÁ PASSOU? O QUE ESPERAR AGORA? | Crypto Never Sleeps #62

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