Jonathan Golub

Raised 2026 S&P 500 target to 8,200 because earnings are growing faster than prices, the market multiple of ~21x is not overly elevated, and seven of 11 sectors delivered double-digit earnings growth, indicating broad-based strength.

"If there's one group that kind of stands out, it's actually the semis... the Vagos [AVGO] and the in videos [NVDA]... massive CapEx intentions... 650 billion across four names, and yet we saw semis trade softer." The market is mispricing these assets based on short-term sentiment. The fundamental reality of $650B in committed CapEx spending guarantees revenue growth for these chipmakers, making the recent valuation compression a buying opportunity. Long Semiconductors due to the disconnect between price action and confirmed CapEx spend. Potential delays in hyperscaler spending or broader economic slowdown affecting tech budgets.

US banks were originally expected to grow earnings less than 8%, but current expectations are for 22% growth, as they benefit from lending into active capital markets. The sharp upward revision highlights strong earnings momentum in the banking sector.

Oil companies are seeing earnings growth well over 100%, driven by war in the Middle East. Elevated commodity prices and supply concerns provide a strong earnings tailwind for the energy sector.

Golub argues the tech basket looks "incredibly attractive" because earnings are "on fire" while multiples have compressed 20%. He explicitly points to "AI semiconductor names and the Nvidias." The market is irrationally punishing the "picks and shovels" (Semis) alongside the "losers" (Software). Strong earnings growth coupled with lower valuations creates a classic buying opportunity for the hardware enablers of AI. LONG AI Semiconductors. CapEx spending by hyperscalers slows down significantly.

"If there's one group that kind of stands out, it's actually the semis... the Vagos [AVGO] and the in videos [NVDA]... massive CapEx intentions... 650 billion across four names, and yet we saw semis trade softer." The market is mispricing these assets based on short-term sentiment. The fundamental reality of $650B in committed CapEx spending guarantees revenue growth for these chipmakers, making the recent valuation compression a buying opportunity. Long Semiconductors due to the disconnect between price action and confirmed CapEx spend. Potential delays in hyperscaler spending or broader economic slowdown affecting tech budgets.

"In order for Republicans to hold both houses of Congress... there's going to be a lot of effort to ease the burden on consumers... The conduit for that is the financials. You have to prop up the banking sector... Housing stocks, homebuilders like are going to be a focus." This is a political-economy trade. The speaker infers that to win the midterms, the government must artificially stimulate the economy to combat the "affordability" crisis. This requires utilizing banks to distribute liquidity and supporting the housing market (via GSEs buying paper) to lower costs, directly benefiting banks, builders, and consumer stocks. Long Banks, Consumer Discretionary, and Homebuilders as beneficiaries of pre-election fiscal/monetary support. Inflation re-accelerating prevents policy easing; Republicans fail to enact supportive measures.

"If you look at the tech basket relative to the rest of the market, it's earnings are on fire... and it's multiples are down 20% versus the rest of the market... there's also a bunch of things in the software space that are dislocated near-term." Tech is historically cheap relative to its own growth metrics. The "dislocation" in software suggests an oversold condition that will revert to the mean as earnings continue to outperform the broader S&P 500. Long Broad Tech and Software. Higher for longer interest rates compressing long-duration asset valuations.

"In order for Republicans to hold both houses of Congress... there's going to be a lot of effort to ease the burden on consumers... The conduit for that is the financials. You have to prop up the banking sector... Housing stocks, homebuilders like are going to be a focus." This is a political-economy trade. The speaker infers that to win the midterms, the government must artificially stimulate the economy to combat the "affordability" crisis. This requires utilizing banks to distribute liquidity and supporting the housing market (via GSEs buying paper) to lower costs, directly benefiting banks, builders, and consumer stocks. Long Banks, Consumer Discretionary, and Homebuilders as beneficiaries of pre-election fiscal/monetary support. Inflation re-accelerating prevents policy easing; Republicans fail to enact supportive measures.

"If you look at the tech basket relative to the rest of the market, it's earnings are on fire... and it's multiples are down 20% versus the rest of the market... there's also a bunch of things in the software space that are dislocated near-term." Tech is historically cheap relative to its own growth metrics. The "dislocation" in software suggests an oversold condition that will revert to the mean as earnings continue to outperform the broader S&P 500. Long Broad Tech and Software. Higher for longer interest rates compressing long-duration asset valuations.

"In order for Republicans to hold both houses of Congress... there's going to be a lot of effort to ease the burden on consumers... The conduit for that is the financials. You have to prop up the banking sector... Housing stocks, homebuilders like are going to be a focus." This is a political-economy trade. The speaker infers that to win the midterms, the government must artificially stimulate the economy to combat the "affordability" crisis. This requires utilizing banks to distribute liquidity and supporting the housing market (via GSEs buying paper) to lower costs, directly benefiting banks, builders, and consumer stocks. Long Banks, Consumer Discretionary, and Homebuilders as beneficiaries of pre-election fiscal/monetary support. Inflation re-accelerating prevents policy easing; Republicans fail to enact supportive measures.