Market Makers

The Strait of Hormuz is the main export gate for Gulf oil. The 2026 conflict collapsed tanker traffic from about 138 ships per day to 20 without a physical blockade, driven by war-risk insurance repricing. Alternative Saudi and UAE pipelines can only bypass a fraction of the roughly 20 million barrels per day that normally cross Hormuz, and the US energy agency does not expect Middle East production to return near pre-conflict levels before early 2027. Brent returned above $92 in this setup.

The Gulf is a major exporter of ammonia, urea, sulfur, methanol and other agricultural/chemical inputs. The Hormuz crisis interrupted these flows, and because natural gas is the key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer, higher gas costs tend to push urea and ammonia prices higher. Brazilian urea import prices rose about 76% between early January and March 19, 2026, and producer-paid urea costs rose about 40% during the conflict.

About one-fifth of global LNG trade passes through Hormuz, mainly from Qatar and the UAE. Unlike oil, there is no large pipeline system capable of quickly moving that gas to a terminal outside the Gulf. The 2026 crisis removed close to 20% of world LNG supply at certain moments, raised gas costs in Europe, and caused one of the largest disruptions ever observed in the LNG market.

The Gulf is a major exporter of ammonia, urea, sulfur, methanol and other agricultural/chemical inputs. The Hormuz crisis interrupted these flows, and because natural gas is the key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer, higher gas costs tend to push urea and ammonia prices higher. Brazilian urea import prices rose about 76% between early January and March 19, 2026, and producer-paid urea costs rose about 40% during the conflict.

About one-fifth of global LNG trade passes through Hormuz, mainly from Qatar and the UAE. Unlike oil, there is no large pipeline system capable of quickly moving that gas to a terminal outside the Gulf. The 2026 crisis removed close to 20% of world LNG supply at certain moments, raised gas costs in Europe, and caused one of the largest disruptions ever observed in the LNG market.