The Era After Samsung-SK hynix Will Definitely Flow Here | Sung Sang-hyun, Former ABP Asset Management Executive Director

Summary

Sung Sang-hyun argues the current cycle is driven by government-backed liquidity, not Fed balance sheet policy alone, and that US bank deregulation plus Treasury supply shifts will keep long-term rates controlled while credit expands. He expects the AI cycle to continue, but the next phase is broadening away from Samsung Electronics and SK hynix leadership into semiconductor equipment, defense/nuclear, and other AI beneficiaries. Within Korea, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix can recover prior highs mainly through shareholder return, and the Korean market should benefit from a stronger won. He views September-October and the 5-5.5% long-term Treasury yield band as key inflection points.

• The liquidity framework has shifted from Fed QT to Treasury spending and bank credit creation.
• US bank deregulation via SLR and LCR relief is designed to unlock lending and broad money.
• The Treasury will defend long-term yields through buybacks and a shift toward short-dated issuance.
• The AI cycle is early but broadening beyond Samsung Electronics and SK hynix.
• Samsung Electronics and SK hynix need shareholder return for re-rating and price recovery.
• Beneficiaries include Korean semiconductor equipment/materials and Korean defense/nuclear sectors.
• KRW strength is supportive of the broader Korean economy and equity market.
• The 5-5.5% long-term Treasury yield band and September-October policy events are key risk triggers.