Noh Geun-chang

Memory semiconductor demand is exploding due to the simultaneous rise of agentic AI and physical AI, causing a structural shortage of DRAM and NAND. This is driving unprecedented price increases—DRAM prices rose ~90% QoQ in Q1 2026 and are expected to rise another 50-60% QoQ in Q2. Supply is constrained by equipment shortages and long fab construction timelines. Both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix will benefit from this supercycle, with SK Hynix maintaining its HBM leadership and Samsung gaining market share in HBM and general memory. The shortage is not a temporary bubble but a structural multi-year trend.

Samsung Electronics' foundry business has a credible turnaround opportunity as TSMC customers face capacity constraints and are seeking alternative suppliers. Tesla has already engaged Samsung for its AI5/AI6 chips, and other U.S. fabless companies are in discussions. Additionally, Samsung's foundry is benefiting from rising demand for memory logic chips (HBM base dies, controller ICs), which are captive within its own memory business. If Samsung can demonstrate meaningful customer wins beyond Tesla, the foundry business could significantly re-rate the stock. However, the timing and magnitude are uncertain, so it is a setup to watch rather than a current conviction buy.

Global semiconductor equipment makers ASML, Applied Materials, and Lam Research are in a massive capex super-cycle. The top memory 3 and TSMC are investing a combined $164 billion, which is unprecedented. China's share of equipment sales is collapsing because most equipment is prioritized for Korea and Taiwan. Blacklist restrictions will keep Chinese memory fabs starved of advanced tools for at least 5 years, making the threat to incumbents negligible.

Global semiconductor equipment makers ASML, Applied Materials, and Lam Research are in a massive capex super-cycle. The top memory 3 and TSMC are investing a combined $164 billion, which is unprecedented. China's share of equipment sales is collapsing because most equipment is prioritized for Korea and Taiwan. Blacklist restrictions will keep Chinese memory fabs starved of advanced tools for at least 5 years, making the threat to incumbents negligible.

Global semiconductor equipment makers ASML, Applied Materials, and Lam Research are in a massive capex super-cycle. The top memory 3 and TSMC are investing a combined $164 billion, which is unprecedented. China's share of equipment sales is collapsing because most equipment is prioritized for Korea and Taiwan. Blacklist restrictions will keep Chinese memory fabs starved of advanced tools for at least 5 years, making the threat to incumbents negligible.