The Era of Physical AI Begins: Why DRAM Prices Soared 60% Again / Samsung Electronics Foundry Finally Reviving

Summary

Noh Geun-chang discusses the explosive growth of the DRAM market driven by agentic and physical AI, forecasting a structural shortage that will sustain high memory prices. He is bullish on both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, citing supply constraints and surging demand. He also highlights Samsung's foundry potential as a watch item, noting progress with Tesla but cautioning on timing.

• DRAM market expected to exceed $500B in 2026, up 5x from 2018.
• DRAM prices rose ~90% QoQ in Q1 2026 and are seen rising 50-60% QoQ in Q2.
• Agentic AI and physical AI are creating simultaneous demand across cloud, edge, and devices.
• Structural supply constraints from equipment shortages and fab build times persist.
• Both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix will benefit from the shortage; Hynix leads HBM but Samsung is catching up.
• Samsung's foundry business has upside potential from TSMC customer shifts, including Tesla AI5/AI6 chips.
• Nvidia's strong guidance and Blackwell demand despite Rubin near-launch indicate extreme under-supply.
• Data center power delays are not negative; they are already factored into conservative guidance.