OS 2 INDICADORES QUE PODEM DECIDIR A ELEIÇÃO DE 2026
Speakers
Maurício Moura
— Gestor do fundo ASA ZFTRA; doutor em Economia e Política; fundador do Instituto Ideia
Summary
Maurício Moura argues the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is much tighter than consensus, and a first-round decision is a real possibility for both Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. He identifies government approval and spontaneous polling as key indicators, and says a second round would likely be very close, with the market pricing Flávio as the favorite.
- Lula is not as favored as consensus suggests; the race is competitive.
- Government approval may matter more than vote intention for Lula's chances.
- PT could win a first round because no candidate is splitting its vote for the first time.
- Late 'antipetismo de chegada' could consolidate anti-PT voters behind Flávio Bolsonaro.
- Spontaneous polls currently show smaller opposition candidates summing to only 8-10%.
- If a runoff occurs, Lula and Flávio would be very close, and Flávio may be seen as the market favorite.
Ideas
Maurício Moura
Gestor do fundo ASA ZFTRA; doutor em Economia e Política; fundador do Instituto Ideia
0:00
Brazil 2026 first-round is not tail risk.
Maurício Moura argues the 2026 Brazilian presidential race is much more competitive than consensus suggests: Lula is not as favored and the election is close. He sees a first-round decision as a real scenario for both sides. For PT, a first-round win is possible because, for the first time, Lula has no significant candidate splitting his first-round vote, and his vote share should track government approval; if approval rises to 51-52% and Lula reaches 47-48% of total votes, he is flirting with 50% of valid votes. For the opposition, a late 'antipetismo de chegada' may consolidate anti-PT voters behind Flávio Bolsonaro if Lula nears a first-round win. This makes the Brazilian election/first-round setup worth monitoring.
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This Market Makers video, published September 06, 2026, features Maurício Moura discussing EWZ. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Maurício Moura · Tickers: EWZ