Calls
15
#907
Alpha Score 10.4
Clare Pleydell-Bouverie
Co-Head of Global Innovation, Liontrust Asset Management
Win Rate
26.7%
return
-10.0%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
May 16
$970.70
-25.1%
Lumentum is a pure-play AI optical exposure with higher beta to the optical sector than Coherent, due to its focus on EML lasers, OCS, and CPO technologies, making it the best choice for investors seeking concentrated AI optical exposure.
AI Photonics
Long
Feb 25
$195.56
+3.5%
Hyperscaler capital expenditure growth is significantly outpacing estimates (67% actual vs. 19% estimated). Additionally, "Physical AI" (robotics, autonomous driving) is emerging as a new demand layer not yet priced in. The market views NVDA primarily as a data center stock, ignoring the "Physical AI" cycle (robots/cars needing silicon). As autonomous driving (e.g., Wayve) and robotics scale, NVDA's addressable market expands beyond just LLM training. LONG. 2026 will be a year of accelerating "beat and raise" cycles for NVDA. Supply chain constraints (sold out) or a faster-than-expected drop in software ROI.
Hyperscaler capital expenditure growth is significantly outpacing estimates (67% actual vs. 19% estimated). Additionally, "Physical AI" (robotics, autonomous driving) is emerging as a new demand layer not yet priced in. The market views NVDA primarily as a data center stock, ignoring the "Physical AI" cycle (robots/cars needing silicon). As autonomous driving (e.g., Wayve) and robotics scale, NVDA's addressable market expands beyond just LLM training. LONG. 2026 will be a year of accelerating "beat and raise" cycles for NVDA. Supply chain constraints (sold out) or a faster-than-expected drop in software ROI.
AI Compute
Long
Jul 18
$203.08
-0.2%
Cybersecurity spending is a top IT budget priority as enterprises reallocate funds from legacy software to security and AI, confirmed by IBM's CEO comments. CrowdStrike leads in endpoint security with a 95% subscription revenue model, strong data network effects, 26% revenue growth, and expanding margins. Its CANSLIM score of 66 outpaces Palo Alto (61.2), and on an EV/Sales-to-growth basis it is about 23% cheaper despite a higher headline multiple. The thesis is to accumulate CrowdStrike on pullbacks as it builds a unified security platform.
Cybersecurity
Long
Jul 11
$669.21
-4.4%
Meta's AI investments are shifting from pure cost to monetizable assets. The company plans to sell excess compute capacity, launch an AI cloud service, and monetize via model APIs. Its strong advertising cash flow funds this vertical integration. The market is beginning to revalue this capex as a revenue-generating strategy, as seen in the 8.8% jump on cloud news. Key catalysts include external revenue from compute sales, cost savings from the in-house Iris chip, and AI-driven ad improvements. The can-slim score of 65 supports the growth thesis, but investors should monitor actual revenue conversion and free cash flow recovery.
Hyperscalers
Long
Jul 11
$424.62
+0.5%
UnitedHealth suffered a 60% collapse in 2025 due to surging medical costs and policy uncertainty. Now the insurance business is recovering: medical loss ratio improved from 84.8% to 83.9%, operating margins are back to pre-crisis levels. Policy headwinds are easing (CMS rates, house calls regulation). The recovery is led by UnitedHealth's insurance arm, while Optum is still restructuring. The stock is in a recovery rally, and the whole healthcare insurance sector is re-rating. Although the can-slim score is only 10, the turnaround trade is promising.
Healthcare Services
Long
Jul 04
$334.47
+2.0%
JP Morgan and financials are likely to benefit from the first FOMC minutes under the new chair, expected to sound hawkish, which would favor bank stocks.
Banks
Long
Jul 04
$79.76
-22.5%
Moderna's growth story is reviving with flu vaccine (mRNA‑1010) FDA advisory committee unanimous approval, expansion into in‑vivo CAR‑T (mRNA‑6007), big pharma M&A validating the platform, and a breakout on the daily chart from a six-month base, making it an attractive turnaround play.
Pharma & Biotech
Long
Jun 20
$286.69
-37.9%
Nebius (네비우스) is a neo-cloud company providing GPU compute to AI firms. It will join Nasdaq 100 on Monday, triggering forced buying by index trackers. The company has long-term committed contracts with Microsoft ($17.4B) and Meta ($29.4B including options), and has secured 1.2 GW of power and land for data center expansion. The neo-cloud market is growing at 69% CAGR, and Nebius is one of the top three players. Despite high capex, its CANSLIM score is strong, indicating robust growth momentum.
NeoCloud
Long
Jun 20
$746.23
-36.4%
Western Digital has transformed into a pure-play AI data center HDD company after the Sandisk spin-off. HDD demand is growing 40-50% annually while supply increases only 30-35%, creating a severe shortage. Morgan Stanley upgraded WDC to $650, citing strong HDD pricing and margin improvement. The HDD oligopoly (WDC, Seagate, Toshiba) benefits from the same supply crunch dynamics as memory. Western Digital's cloud revenue now 89% of total, making it a leading AI storage play.
AI Memory
Long
May 30
$420.91
-5.9%
Dell's Q1 FY27 revenue surged 88% YoY, AI server revenue alone hit $16.1B, backlog of $51.3B ensures near-term visibility. The company raised full-year guidance significantly, confirming that AI server demand is real and rapidly expanding. Dell is now a core AI infrastructure supplier.
AI Hardware
Long
May 30
$255.55
+6.2%
Snowflake's product revenue grew 34% YoY, large customers increased 29%, and remaining performance obligations rose 38% to $9.21B. The company is finally monetizing AI through data consumption, and its partnership with AWS and acquisition of Natoma position it as an AI data platform. The SaaS apocalypse narrative is reversing.
AI Software
Long
May 23
$306.88
-1.1%
Astera Labs benefits from increasing AI server internal connectivity demand: PCIe retimers, CXL switches, and the new Scorpio X-series fabric switch for GPU clusters, with strong earnings guidance and early sampling.
AI ASIC
Long
May 23
$306.51
-13.2%
ARM's CPU architecture is expanding from mobile into data centers and AI servers, driven by AI agentic AI requiring more CPU coordination, NVIDIA's Grace and Vera CPUs being ARM-based, and ARM's own AI CPU strategy targeting $15B revenue by 2031.
AI ASIC
Short
Feb 25
$20.42
-0.1%
UBS raised its worst-case default scenario for private credit to 15%. Approximately one-third of private credit exposure is to the software sector. If AI disrupts legacy software cash flows (as per the SaaS thesis above), the lenders to these software companies (Private Credit/BDCs) will face massive impairments. Software is "asset-light," meaning recovery rates in bankruptcy will be near zero. SHORT. The "wheels are coming off" the asset class due to its exposure to disrupted tech. M&A activity picks up, allowing distressed software firms to be acquired rather than defaulting.
UBS raised its worst-case default scenario for private credit to 15%. Approximately one-third of private credit exposure is to the software sector. If AI disrupts legacy software cash flows (as per the SaaS thesis above), the lenders to these software companies (Private Credit/BDCs) will face massive impairments. Software is "asset-light," meaning recovery rates in bankruptcy will be near zero. SHORT. The "wheels are coming off" the asset class due to its exposure to disrupted tech. M&A activity picks up, allowing distressed software firms to be acquired rather than defaulting.
Bonds & Rates
Short
Feb 25
$80.85
-14.9%
AI allows for "Software 2.0" (accelerated compute) to displace "Software 1.0" (legacy code). New AI-native startups can compete with lower costs. Legacy SaaS companies historically commanded premium valuations (10x revenue) due to "recurring revenue" safety. AI destroys this moat, leading to margin compression (pricing power loss) and multiple compression (re-rating to 3-4x revenue). SHORT/AVOID. 90% of the software sector faces further de-rating. Indiscriminate selling creates value traps where quality proprietary data companies are oversold.
AI allows for "Software 2.0" (accelerated compute) to displace "Software 1.0" (legacy code). New AI-native startups can compete with lower costs. Legacy SaaS companies historically commanded premium valuations (10x revenue) due to "recurring revenue" safety. AI destroys this moat, leading to margin compression (pricing power loss) and multiple compression (re-rating to 3-4x revenue). SHORT/AVOID. 90% of the software sector faces further de-rating. Indiscriminate selling creates value traps where quality proprietary data companies are oversold.
Thematic ETFs
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Clare Pleydell-Bouverie has 15 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 15 tickers since February 2026. Win rate 27% across 15 evaluated calls, average return -10.0%. Ranked #907 on the Buzzberg Alpha leaderboard. Most covered: LITE, NVDA, CRWD.
