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03:35
Sep 05
Sep 05
SILVER 1ST
GLD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Retirees should own physical gold and silver.
Retirement savers should think like central banks and own physical gold and silver as non-correlated diversification to protect purchasing power against persistent inflation, government debt, and deficit spending; fixed income and homes can be unreliable, and retirees cannot afford to sell risk assets in down markets, so precious metals should be accumulated rather than trying to time Fed moves or waiting for a pullback.
SILVER LONG
Retirees should own physical gold and silver.
Gold has a structural bid from central banks that are diversifying away from the weaponized dollar; annual central bank gold buying doubled to over 1,000 tons, and central banks now hold more gold than U.S. Treasuries for the first time since 1996. The macro conditions for gold to reach $5,000—geopolitical problems, deglobalization, global debt, interest costs, and government spending—are already in place, so temporary oil/dollar-driven pullbacks are buying opportunities rather than reasons to wait.
GLD LONG
HIGH
17:27
Sep 04
Sep 04
LCTD 1ST
UPS 1ST
SOYB 1ST
CORN 1ST
AMZN 1ST
▾
HIGH
Beef prices stay elevated on tight supply
US cattle herd is at a 75-year low after drought, liquidation, aging ranchers and low profitability; rebuilding is a four-year biological cycle, while protein demand from paleo/keto/carnivore trends remains strong, so beef prices should stay under upward pressure.
LCTD LONG
Direct logistics gains share from supermarkets
Door-to-door logistics through Amazon Prime, UPS and FedEx plus software-driven electronic aggregation is becoming cheap enough to bypass supermarkets and ship farm products directly to urban centers, while urban bricks-and-mortar retail costs have escalated, so direct logistics is taking share from supermarkets.
UPS LONG
AMZN LONG
FDX LONG
Corn and soybeans face excess supply
US corn and soybean production is far beyond food needs; half of soybeans are exported, half of corn goes to ethanol, and China is targeting agricultural self-sufficiency by 2030, so these markets are vulnerable and subsidies are merely delaying a collapse.
SOYB SHORT
CORN SHORT
HIGH
21:46
Sep 03
Sep 03
Commodity indices (broad)
DIESEL
UGA
BNO
Diesel crack spread
▾
HIGH
Own full commodity indices for supercycle
Commodities are in a durable supercycle caused by years of underinvestment after 2014, ESG-driven refinery closures and broad supply shocks across food, fuel and supply chains; diesel links all commodities, and broad commodity indices have been the best-performing asset class since October 2020, so investors should own full commodity indices rather than try to pick rotations.
Commodity indices (broad) LONG
Diesel and gasoline prices stay high
Diesel and gasoline prices are the real consumer inflation risk and are not coming down because the world destroyed refining capacity and has no strategic reserves for refiners; with crude around $94 and diesel around $189, products remain extremely tight and diesel prices should stay or go up.
DIESEL LONG
UGA LONG
Long crude, short diesel crack spread
Record diesel crack spreads near $106 have made refining highly profitable, enticing buyers like China to chase crude, so the near-term trade is long crude oil and short the diesel crack spread as oil plays catch-up and the spread corrects.
BNO LONG
Diesel crack spread SHORT
WTI LONG
Higher wheat and grain prices coming
Grains, especially wheat and corn, are going higher because Ukraine took out the Black Sea grain corridor, the US is struggling with weather/El Nino, Russia has export disruption, and diesel costs plus biofuel demand add support.
DBA LONG
WEAT LONG
CORN LONG
Own gold silver platinum palladium basket
Own the precious metals basket of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium as hard assets; do not try to pick individual metals.
PPLT LONG
PALL LONG
Copper is the new oil
Electrification is accelerating for security rather than environmental reasons, making the 'big security metals' — copper, aluminum, nickel, silver, lithium, and cobalt — bullish; aluminum can substitute for copper above ground but buried urban cables still need copper.
COPPER LONG
Aluminum LONG
NICKEL LONG
LITHIUM LONG
Cobalt LONG
SILVER LONG
Gold rallies on debasement and real yields
Gold is supported by the end of petrodollar recycling after 2022 Russian central bank sanctions, central banks shifting from Treasuries to gold, declining real yields, and financial repression/debasement; the risk-reward favors being long gold now.
GLD LONG
Whole oil complex heads higher
Crude and the whole oil complex are moving higher because supply losses are broader than the Strait of Hormuz: Red Sea disruptions, Ukrainian attacks on Black Sea oil ports and Russian refining, Chinese refinery cuts, low Rhine and Panama limits, and global inventories drawing 4-6 million barrels per day; China is buying crude to capture refining margins, and oil prices are now catching up to product prices.
XLE LONG
HIGH
17:54
Sep 03
Sep 03
10-year U.S. Treasury Yield
AI-related infrastructure
XLK
FXI 1ST
SMH 1ST
▾
HIGH
Long-term yields rise on inflation/debt.
Higher long-term bond yields are a real signal rather than noise: inflation expectations are ticking up, PCE is above 3.5%, the same yield move is visible in Western Europe and Japan, and U.S. debt/deficits are putting pressure on benchmark rates, especially the 10-year Treasury yield.
10-year U.S. Treasury Yield LONG
AI infrastructure investment boom accelerates.
In the Jackson Hole clip, Kevin Walsh argues AI progress is faster than expected, the potential for substantially higher growth is rising, and ever-expanding pools of capital are pouring into AI-related infrastructure of all sorts, with token sales for leading AI labs up 500% year over year.
AI-related infrastructure LONG
AI boom carries railway-like bust risk.
AI resembles past transformative booms such as railways and the internet: the technology may be real, but boom-bust cycles, unsustainable financial structures, round-tripping of capital, and disclosure gaps mean investors should keep the risk of a bust in mind.
XLK WATCH
China's automation push hurts its economy.
China's policy preference for automation and robots is running ahead of its labor market, contributing to high youth unemployment and removing lower rungs of development; China is not doing itself any favors with this approach.
FXI AVOID
AI boom pushes chip prices higher.
The AI boom is an inflation shock that is pushing up semiconductor and chip prices, feeding into supply chains.
SMH LONG
Fed likely hikes rates in December.
The Fed is likely to defer rate hikes until December because the October FOMC meeting is right before midterm elections, then likely raise rates as inflationary pressure builds; a half-point hike is possible but depends on data and market pressure.
Federal Funds Rate LONG
High oil prices boost energy profits.
Higher gasoline and diesel prices are a real cost pressure that will feed into inflation, and the energy sector is a net beneficiary with opportunities and high profits for oil companies even as consumers pay more.
WTI LONG
XLE LONG
Dollar faces inflation-driven depreciation.
Inflationary pressure, the temptation to inflate away debt, and running the economy too hot will tend to depreciate the dollar, so the U.S. dollar faces headwinds even though there is no immediate reserve-currency alternative.
UUP SHORT
HIGH
01:51
Sep 03
Sep 03
IEF
TLT
Fed Funds Rate
US short-term Treasury yields
ITB 1ST
▾
HIGH
Avoid long-duration nominal Treasury bonds.
Hanke says investors should stay away from bonds, especially long bonds, because money supply growth is accelerating (7.9% YoY versus 5.4% last year) and with a 12-24 month lag that will push inflation and bond yields higher. He expects the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields could rise another 50 basis points into a 'red zone', with additional pressure from the Iran war, fiscal deficits, and bond vigilantes.
IEF AVOID
TLT AVOID
Fed will hike short rates.
Hanke believes the Fed is likely to raise the Fed funds rate at the next meeting because Chair Warsh wants to slow money supply growth to bring inflation down. Three FOMC members already voted for hikes, Warsh can bring others along, and Hanke puts his subjective probability near 80%, above the market's 64%, pushing short-end yields up more than the long end.
Fed Funds Rate LONG
US short-term Treasury yields LONG
US housing is in a slump.
Hanke says mortgage rates are keyed off the 10-year Treasury and are now higher than at any time since the 2008 financial crisis, making the housing market sluggish and in a slump. Trump's tariffs on Canadian logs also raise lumber costs and add about $8,500 to the price of an average new home.
ITB AVOID
Hormuz closure keeps oil supply risk.
Hanke says the Venezuela oil deal will not bring down oil prices meaningfully: even the stated 1.5 million barrels per day increase would leave output below Venezuela's 1998 peak, and PDVSA's extremely slow reserve depletion rate means most reserves have little present value without major investment and open privatization.
BNO WATCH
WTI WATCH
Lumber prices up on tariffs.
Lumber prices are way up because Trump's trade war and tariffs with Canada raise the cost of imported logs used for US lumber and homebuilding, adding roughly $8,500 to the price of an average new home.
WOOD LONG
HIGH
18:04
Sep 02
Sep 02
TLT
SPY
10-Year Treasury Note
ROSY 1ST
Hard assets
▾
HIGH
Avoid duration and de-risk stocks.
The Fed is making a policy mistake by shifting toward multiple rate hikes into a weak one-and-a-half percent economy and an oil shock; Treasury yields are rising because of Fed expectations and risk premia, not inflation, so investors should avoid bond duration and start de-risking equities.
TLT AVOID
SPY AVOID
Watch 10-year yield near 5%.
The 10-year Treasury note is the key rate for the economy, with 5% as the likely line in the sand; Treasury can influence the curve through supply, and the November 4 refunding announcement may act as a bazooka to bring 10-year yields lower, similar to the Q4 2023 refunding that took yields from 5% to 4%.
10-Year Treasury Note WATCH
Buy ROSY ETF diversified barbell.
The new ROSY ETF, managed by Corton Capital and inspired by Rosenberg Research's top conviction themes, is a low-to-moderate risk unconstrained portfolio built as a barbell of cash-flow fixed income in high real rate and flat yield curve markets plus hard assets, positioned 70% inversely to the US dollar.
ROSY LONG
Own hard assets for pricing power.
Hard assets and commodities have pricing power and hedge goods inflation, tariffs, wars, security of supply, and recurring supply shocks; the portfolio is overweight gold, gold miners, uranium, rare earths, pipelines/energy infrastructure, and base metals.
Hard assets LONG
GLD LONG
DBB LONG
GDX LONG
URA LONG
REMX LONG
MLPX LONG
Oil supported by supply-demand balance.
Oil is held as a hedge against escalation in the war and recurring supply shocks; even if the current war ends, unless there is a global recession the supply-demand balance should still favor higher oil prices.
WTI LONG
Own short duration and EM bonds.
The fixed-income side of the portfolio uses short-duration bonds and 2-year notes plus local-currency emerging market bonds to generate cash flow and to capture areas with flat yield curves and high real interest rates.
2-year Treasury notes LONG
SHY LONG
EMLC LONG
Short the US dollar.
The US dollar is in the early stages of a fundamental bear market, and the portfolio is deliberately positioned 70% inversely to the US dollar to benefit from that trend.
USD SHORT
Caterpillar drop warns AI trade.
Caterpillar is a non-tech poster child for the AI/data-center construction boom because its turbines and equipment feed data construction, yet the stock is down nearly 30% from its peak; Rosenberg sees this as a leading indicator and a warning about extrapolating the AI trade.
CAT AVOID
Mega-cap tech leadership is stalling.
The Magnificent 7 has gone nowhere for six months despite the AI narrative; strong rotational churn within the group has masked that the entire group has not made investors money, suggesting mega-cap tech leadership is stalling.
MAGS AVOID
Watch homebuilders for rate-peak entry.
Homebuilding stocks have already fallen a lot, but Rosenberg would not buy yet; once there is clarity that the Fed either hikes only in a truncated cycle or market rates peak and 10-year yields come down, homebuilders/HGX could become a tactical buying opportunity, especially around the November 4 Treasury refunding.
Homebuilding stocks WATCH
Nasdaq:HGX WATCH
HIGH
22:20
Sep 01
Sep 01
WTI
▾
HIGH
Iran supply risk makes oil bullish
Josh is bullish on crude oil because Iran/IRGC and Houthi attacks have materially limited Strait of Hormuz transits, the global oil market is under-supplied by roughly 5-10 million barrels per day, inventories are being depleted, and Middle East drilling activity has fallen. He also argues that a likely EIA data quality issue may have overstated oil inventories and that China and Asian refiners are buying oil aggressively, so prices are biased much higher.
WTI LONG
HIGH
03:17
Sep 01
Sep 01
US Treasury yields
SPY 1ST
US short-term interest rates
AIQ
Stellar Gold
▾
HIGH
September rate hike risk lifts Treasury yields
David Lin notes that Worsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech was interpreted as practically signaling a September rate hike, the CME FedWatch probability for a 25bp September hike jumped to 66%, and Treasury yields climbed as markets priced in higher rates. He adds that the CME FedWatch tool has historically been accurate near FOMC events.
US Treasury yields LONG
Strong economy and profits support US equities
Worsh says broad financial conditions are not restrictive, real consumer spending and private domestic final purchases are healthy, the economy has strengthened, Main Street and Wall Street are resilient, and S&P 500 profits grew more than 20% over the past year with elevated margins. This supports US equities.
SPY LONG
Fed likely holds unless data surprises
Colin Martin says the Fed is likely to remain on hold at the September FOMC because officials who want to hike have not yet gotten a specific reason; that could change if August CPI comes in hot or the labor market is stronger than expected.
US short-term interest rates WATCH
AI infrastructure buildout is driving durable growth
Worsh describes AI as a hinge point in history with faster-than-expected progress, potential for substantially higher growth, expanding pools of capital into AI-related infrastructure, 500% annualized token sales growth at two leading labs, and more than half of capex growth attributed to the AI buildout. He sees a super-Moore's-law dynamic accelerating innovation.
AIQ LONG
Stellar Gold offers leveraged gold exposure
Stellar Gold is presented as a long-term gold leverage story with three major Canadian projects; Tower alone could be worth $2.5 billion after tax at a $3,200 gold price assumption, with upside if gold prices rise, and over 16 million ounces already drilled across projects.
Stellar Gold LONG
HIGH
22:15
Aug 31
Aug 31
EWC 1ST
US Housing
Aluminum 1ST
SLX 1ST
F 1ST
▾
MED
Tariffs are bad for Canada's economy.
The 50% US tariffs on Canadian trade are a negative shock to Canada's economy because Canada loses trade; research cited in the discussion estimates up to 90,000 Canadian jobs affected and unemployment rising from 6.4% to 6.8%.
EWC AVOID
Tariffs on Canadian lumber lift housing prices.
Tariffs on Canadian lumber make building materials more expensive, which pushes US housing prices up because lumber is a key input.
US Housing LONG
WOOD LONG
Tariffs on aluminum and steel raise costs.
Tariffs on Canadian aluminum, steel, and cars raise the cost of these inputs and components, making anything that uses them more expensive in the US domestic economy.
Aluminum LONG
SLX LONG
Tariffs raise input costs for Ford, GM.
US tariffs on Canadian auto parts and components are a direct cost problem for American automakers; Canada produces parts for Ford and GM, and those higher input costs get passed to US consumers through higher car prices.
F AVOID
GM AVOID
Dollar direction split amid tariff chaos.
Tariffs reduce trade volume and the number of dollars going abroad, which tends to appreciate the dollar by making dollars scarce; however the administration is split between Trump's strong-dollar preference and Vance's weak-dollar push, leaving the dollar outlook contested and Treasury tools limited.
USD WATCH
Tariffs slowed rather than boosted US manufacturing.
Rather than boosting domestic manufacturing, Trump's tariffs have slowed US manufacturing relative to what was already happening under Biden and Trump's first term, so the policy is backfiring for the manufacturing sector.
US manufacturing AVOID
MED
18:46
Aug 31
Aug 31
SMH
TIP 1ST
Bitcoin vs Gold
SPY
QQQ
▾
HIGH
Semiconductors still have bullish chart pattern.
Semiconductors and memory stocks pulled back recently and slowed the tech tape, but Chris says the semiconductor chart pattern is still fairly bullish and the pullback looks like a pause or larger base within an uptrend rather than a breakdown.
SMH LONG
Rates pressure long bonds; TLT down.
Chris expects interest rates to stay elevated and potentially drift higher, which keeps pressure on the bond market. He explicitly says TIPS and TLT long-term bonds should continue to be under pressure and move down.
TIP SHORT
TLT SHORT
Bitcoin likely outperforms gold on upside.
Asked whether Bitcoin or gold is the preferable trade into year-end, Chris says Bitcoin is much more volatile and would probably outperform gold percentage-wise if both break to the upside. Gold is slower, but Bitcoin needs the upside breakout to confirm the relative trade.
Bitcoin vs Gold LONG
Equities coiling; expect next leg higher.
The S&P 500 and NASDAQ are consolidating sideways after a strong rally, coiling like the calm before the storm. The underlying trends and moving averages are sloping up, there are higher highs and higher lows, and he does not see distribution selling, so he expects another leg higher and is long equities. He cites S&P 500 upside of about 3.5-6% for the next leg and longer-term potential near 8,500, while the NASDAQ has about 20% upside from its chart pattern.
SPY LONG
QQQ LONG
Gold stuck under resistance; needs time.
Gold has rallied into major previous highs and is getting rejected. The roughly $4,800-$5,000 area is significant resistance because of prior highs and the round $5,000 level. Chris wants to see gold hold its ground and build a bull flag or launch pad over the next couple of weeks before getting long; for now it is stuck under resistance and needs more time.
GLD WATCH
Bitcoin at resistance; needs confirmation.
Bitcoin had a huge three-day, news-driven rally into previous highs and is now at resistance. It is in a short-term uptrend, but on a long-term basis Chris says it is still building a base and needs to prove itself. He is watching whether Bitcoin stabilizes and holds value or gets sold back into before treating it as a new major uptrend.
BTC WATCH
Gold miners run into previous highs.
Gold miners have had the strongest run to the upside and have come back near previous two-month highs, but they are now running into selling pressure and are trying to figure out their next direction. Chris was most surprised by gold miners' strength and sees them as especially sensitive to long-term yields and Treasury actions.
GDX WATCH
Oil target $100; energy remains strong.
Oil is choppy but the overall trend is still up, with the long-term moving average sloping higher. Based on Fibonacci and momentum, Chris sees oil working toward about $100 per barrel. Middle East tensions are not going away, and energy stocks are leading with breakouts above prior highs and strong earnings, so he expects the energy sector to hold up well.
WTI LONG
XLE LONG
Canadian real estate likely softens further.
If rates keep drifting higher, mortgage rates should continue higher and cause softening in the housing market. Chris is pretty bearish on real estate, expecting lower pricing and more of a buyer's market. He thinks Canadian real estate will follow the US pattern but may lag and be less sensitive.
Canadian Real Estate AVOID
HIGH
01:46
Aug 31
Aug 31
KARS 1ST
LITHIUM 1ST
GLD 1ST
TLT 1ST
MBG.DE 1ST
▾
HIGH
China leads global EV adoption
China has already passed the EV adoption crucible, with more than 50% of new car sales being EVs or new energy vehicles, supported by convenient charging infrastructure and affordable Chinese EVs; China is leading these technologies and will continue to lead global EV adoption.
KARS LONG
Lithium demand grows 20% yearly
Lithium demand is expected to compound at better than 20% for the next decade, with battery demand growing from 1.8 terawatt hours to about 5 terawatt hours, and the market likely doubling in roughly three and a half to four years; the world needs lithium around $20,000-$25,000 per ton, not $80,000, and prices should normalize from lows.
LITHIUM LONG
Gold climbing toward $8,000
Gold is climbing higher because of the continued de-dollarization trend, and he believes $8,000 gold is already in the tea leaves; in periods of serious instability, big money is also expected to seek safety in gold.
GLD LONG
Short-run safety bid into government bonds
In a short-run period of serious instability and climbing interest rates, big money is likely to move into government bonds as a safety trade, although not for the long run.
TLT LONG
European legacy automakers face massive write-downs
Legacy European automakers are losing the world's largest car market, China, because they did not build a good charging experience or competitive affordable EVs; Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes are facing massive write-downs and are closing legacy factories in Germany for the first time.
MBG.DE AVOID
VOLKSWAGEN AVOID
BMW AVOID
Lithium Bank project may be taken over
Lithium Bank has acquired legacy Alberta infrastructure including 25 wells and 25 km of pipelines worth roughly $200 million, positioning it with Schlumberger to create one of the most advanced, lowest-opex and lowest-capex lithium projects in the world; he also sees the project as a likely takeover target for a Schlumberger client needing lithium.
LBNK.V LONG
Global stocks could correct 20-30%
Overall stock markets should correct 20% as a healthy reset, and a 30% correction would signal something very serious is happening in the world; untenable debt levels, especially US government debt, are the backdrop for extreme volatility.
Global stock market AVOID
Oil era beginning to end
The electrification trend marks the beginning of the end of the oil era, which is why oil has not gone to $200 a barrel despite major supply disruptions in Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the United States; oil demand is slowly being disintermediated.
WTI AVOID
SLB direct lithium extraction potential 10-20 bagger
Schlumberger has commercialized direct lithium extraction, producing a refined lithium product at the wellhead without sending it to China, using 95% less water and 10% of the land area of conventional hard rock mining; he calls it a potential 10 or 20 bagger and a new hinge of history.
SLB LONG
Aluminum rises in tandem with copper
Aluminum will work in tandem with copper because electrification and data-center buildouts are already using large amounts of aluminum conductors, and when copper prices become very expensive or unavailable, industry is forced to substitute more aluminum while keeping the copper-to-aluminum ratio near 3.5-4 to 1.
Aluminum LONG
Silver follows gold toward $150-$200
Silver should follow gold higher, with a 50-to-1 ratio seen as fair and 40-to-1 possible at times, supporting an eventual silver price around $150 to $200.
SILVER LONG
Oil and gas sector most mispriced opportunity
The most mispriced opportunity in global stock markets is an energy story led by oil and gas, because the oil and gas industry is reinventing itself around direct lithium extraction and the disintermediation of the incumbent energy system.
XLE LONG
Electrification drives insatiable copper demand
Electrification is the largest driver for copper because 75% of fabricated copper is used to generate, transfer, utilize, and now store electrical energy; China and the West are rapidly increasing electrification, creating insatiable copper demand for 15-20 years, and copper is not even at an inflation-adjusted all-time high.
COPPER LONG
Super Copper Chile drill speculation
Super Copper is a speculative drill-hole play he owns, drilling in Chile at 1,000 meters; if the company discovers a big copper hit, the stock could reprice dramatically, while a miss is an accepted speculative loss.
CUPR.CN LONG
HIGH
18:55
Aug 29
Aug 29
HYPE
COIN 1ST
SPY
NVDA FLIP
ALGR 1ST
▾
HIGH
Hyperliquid only crypto play worth watching.
Hyperliquid is the only crypto/onchain play he is interested in. He traded the stock premarket and sold at the open after the token soared but shares lagged. It 'could do really, really well—not will, could,' so it is worth watching rather than blindly buying.
HYPE WATCH
Coinbase incompetent; avoid it.
Coinbase used to be loved but is now a completely incompetent company. He will not put money into an incompetent company regardless of press releases, so he avoids it.
COIN AVOID
Ride early bubble; exit before bust.
Clem argues the market is in the very early part of a bubble, not a top. He says investors should ride the bubble and try to get out before the bust, because the market will be incredible over the next 10 years as technology and an economic explosion drive gains. He sees maybe two years before the vertical blow-off, when he would say get out.
SPY LONG
AI world-changing; Nasdaq and Nvidia long.
AI is world-changing and underappreciated; media is wrongly calling it rubbish. Companies that are factories of code have invented software that writes 10 times as much, which can multiply value. AI firms are borrowing and going all in on a $5 trillion buildout. That supports the Nasdaq and names like Nvidia as the AI buildout becomes an 'absolute colossus.' He is long/optimistic and says pessimism and shorting will leave investors behind.
NVDA LONG
QQQ LONG
Copper grades declining; ALGR high-grade deposit.
Copper grades are declining globally and majors are struggling to keep mills fed. Algo Grande's Adelita project in Sonora, Mexico is a high-grade copper deposit in an established producing region. Phase 1 drilling returned 18.2m at 1.8% copper equivalent, multiple high-grade systems along a 6 km corridor, phase two targets are being defined, and the technical team includes Peter Migall of Mag Silver and Raymond Janice of Atex Resources.
ALGR LONG
Bitcoin likely pulls back to $40-50k.
Bitcoin is too insecure to hold much because it can be stolen via hacking, cold wallets, ETFs, or physical coercion. He does not think it goes to $250,000 by Christmas. The four-year cycle is only halfway through, so it will likely pull back to $40,000-$50,000 before going up; as a trade he would be short. The only thing that could stop the pullback is a reflationary money-supply surge from the government/AI buildout.
BTC SHORT
Gold favored on inflation and reflation.
He likes gold more than Bitcoin even though he is not a buyer at the moment. Gold should continue because it has not bottomed; dollar cost averaging is reasonable. Fed/Treasury money printing, onshoring/reindustrialization and inflation make the base of the pyramid of value in demand, supporting gold as an inflation/reflation asset.
GLD LONG
HIGH
23:20
Aug 28
Aug 28
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)
2-year Treasury note
10-Year Treasury Note
30-year Treasury bond
LQD 1ST
▾
HIGH
TIPS attractive amid stubborn inflation.
Inflation is expected to remain elevated above 2% over the next few quarters and may be structurally higher, so TIPS make sense as an underowned asset with attractive real yields. The 10-year TIPS yield is about 2.25–2.5% and its principal is indexed to inflation, providing direct inflation protection.
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) LONG
Fed likely holds; short-end yields rise.
Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech was more hawkish than expected and reinforced that inflation is still too high, but Collin's base case is that the Fed remains on hold for now and does not hike in September unless August CPI or labor data surprise to the upside. With that hawkish bias, he expects a near-term bear flattening where short-term Treasury yields rise.
2-year Treasury note SHORT
Long-term yields likely stay elevated.
Long-term Treasury yields are reflecting a resilient economy with the fed funds rate at or near neutral, strong nominal growth, record corporate earnings and a stable labor market. Collin expects higher long-term yields to stay and sees the 10-year Treasury yield holding in the 4.25% to 4.75% range with 5% as a psychological cap.
10-Year Treasury Note SHORT
30-year Treasury bond SHORT
Corporate credit attractive despite tight spreads.
Credit spreads are near historic tights, but that reflects strong corporate fundamentals: growing revenues, profits, high margins, and a high short-term liquidity ratio. Collin is comfortable owning investment grade and high yield credit because yields are attractive at roughly 5%+ for investment grade and 7–7.5% for high yield.
LQD LONG
HYG LONG
Avoid hyperscaler credit concentration risk.
Hyperscaler debt issuance has surged from roughly $30bn in 2020 to over $200bn year-to-date as AI capex requires more capital, pushing tech spreads wider relative to the index. Collin sees long-term uncertainty around AI project profitability and favors diversified investment grade credit rather than being overweight one issuer or the tech/hyperscaler sector.
Hyperscaler corporate bonds AVOID
HIGH
18:53
Aug 28
Aug 28
U.S. technology sector
SPY
NVDA
U.S. technology stocks
KBWP 1ST
▾
HIGH
AI ecosystem fragile; tech/market selloff risk.
The entire AI ecosystem and US economy are dependent on the health of OpenAI and Anthropic; AI capex is roughly half of US GDP growth, Nvidia's receivables and hyperscaler AI revenue are highly concentrated in these companies, and Oracle has half its backlog tied to OpenAI. If OpenAI were to fail or B2B AI revenue growth slows, the whole tech space and broader market would sell off, with an immediate recession and massive correction.
U.S. technology sector WATCH
SPY WATCH
Still long Nvidia, but reduced exposure.
Eisman says he is still long Nvidia and several other tech stocks, but has reduced exposure because he is nervous about AI concentration risk and is not short. He distinguishes his stance from Michael Burry's short position, indicating he still wants upside but with less risk.
NVDA LONG
U.S. technology stocks LONG
KBWP is lower-risk alternative.
For investors sitting on large embedded gains who are nervous about AI concentration, Eisman points to lower-risk ETFs and names KBWP, the property and casualty insurance index ETF, as one example of an area that offers lower risk.
KBWP LONG
US banks are safe and deleveraged.
Post-Dodd-Frank US banks were forced to deleverage; leverage is about half prior levels and capital is strong. Eisman does not worry about banks despite private credit exposure and believes the US banking system is the safest in anyone's lifetime, so bank systemic risk is not an issue.
KBE LONG
HIGH
23:00
Aug 27
Aug 27
BTC
SOL 1ST
Tokenized assets
Crypto Market
GLD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin crosses $200k in 18 months.
Jason expects Bitcoin to cross $200,000 within roughly the next 18 months. He believes this is not a fakeout but a new bull market driven by an improved macro setup, revived debasement trade, more constructive Washington regulation, strong ETF inflows, and a resilient onchain economy.
BTC LONG
Solana onchain growth supports continued outperformance.
Jason highlights Solana's record onchain activity: about $4.2 billion in non-vote transactions monthly, 24 million trades per day, 860,000 trader addresses, spot DEX volume of $3.3 billion per day, and median fees near zero. He says there is a lot of capital in Solana, and assets like Solana should do well on the treasury company side.
SOL LONG
Tokenized assets and venues will outperform.
Jason says finance is becoming crypto: dollars are becoming stablecoins, stocks are becoming tokens, exchanges are becoming protocols, and Nasdaq is moving to 24/7 onchain trading. He believes every stock, bond, currency, and commodity will eventually have an onchain version, and the venues and data providers powering those markets will do extremely well.
Tokenized assets LONG
New crypto bull market has started.
Jason says this is clearly the start of a new crypto bull market, not a head fake or short squeeze. The macro setup improved as Treasury buybacks revived the debasement trade, Washington flipped its crypto stance, ETF inflows had their biggest week in 10 months, and the onchain economy remained resilient even while Bitcoin fell. He also says AI investors are looking for the next asset class and crypto is the natural next step.
Crypto Market LONG
Gold rallies on renewed debasement trade.
Jason says the August 19 Treasury decision to double long-end buybacks signaled less willingness to let long-term rates clear higher, reviving the debasement trade. That pressure went into the dollar and then into hard assets, so gold should rally, with Bitcoin acting as a higher-beta gold trade.
GLD LONG
Bitcoin crossing $100K before January 2027.
Jason says he took the yes side on the Kalshi contract for Bitcoin crossing $100,000 before January 2027 when the probability was around 18-19%. At 29%, he still thinks it is priced a little too low and sees a roughly 30-40% chance of Bitcoin crossing $100K during 2026.
Kalshi: Bitcoin $100K by January 2027 LONG
Hyperliquid monetizes on-chain real-world trading.
Jason argues Hyperliquid is the first crypto venue to break out into mainstream markets. It generated $154 million in Q1 revenue and $148 million in Q2, a $600 million run rate, with only about 13 employees. Its perp futures volume reached about $9.6 billion in a day, with 29% in real-world assets such as equities, indices, commodities, FX, pre-IPO, and bonds. He sees it as one of the better assets in crypto.
HYPE LONG
HIGH
20:35
Aug 27
Aug 27
Canadian energy
REMX
SPY
CAD
ITB 1ST
▾
HIGH
Trump spares Canadian energy and minerals
Trump is unlikely to target Canadian critical minerals or fuel because those imports are too important to the US economy. Oil is one of the largest US imports from Canada, and he does not want to dabble with it, so tariff escalation will likely spare Canadian energy and critical minerals.
Canadian energy WATCH
REMX WATCH
Tariff risk underpriced in US markets
Forward tariff rates are similar to April levels that triggered an equity selloff and wider credit spreads, yet markets are at all-time highs and credit spreads are narrow. Tariff costs are increasingly likely to pass through to US consumers and businesses, making tariffs an under-priced ongoing drag on the US economy and gradually decelerating US growth.
SPY WATCH
Canadian dollar faces tariff-driven downside
The US-Canada tariff fight creates a stagflationary setup for Canada: US tariffs weaken Canadian exports, corporate profits, investment and employment, while Canadian retaliatory tariffs raise the cost of imported American goods. The Bank of Canada may face pressure to lower rates if growth weakens, but retaliatory-tariff inflation makes easing difficult. The Canadian dollar could also come under pressure if investors expect slower Canadian growth or reduced export demand.
CAD WATCH
Tariffs raise US homebuilding costs
The latest US tariffs are likely to produce higher American consumer prices, with the effect especially visible in housing and construction because Canadian lumber and wood products are important inputs. Higher material costs can increase the cost of building homes at a time when US housing affordability is already strained.
ITB AVOID
Canadian potash and uranium supply threatened
If the trade conflict escalates further, Canada and Ontario could put electricity, fuel, potash and uranium on the table as retaliation against the US. Because Canada is a major supplier to the US, this creates a supply-disruption risk and upward price risk for potash and uranium.
SOIL WATCH
URA WATCH
Auto supply chain vulnerable to tariffs
Prolonged uncertainty over the threatened 50% US tariffs on Canadian vehicles and components could significantly disrupt the North American auto supply chain and potentially force a major realignment of Canada's auto industry. Because parts cross the US-Canada border repeatedly during production, tariff costs can compound quickly.
XLI WATCH
HIGH
21:28
Aug 26
Aug 26
Kalshi: Democrats win House
Kalshi: Democrats win Senate
SPY
TLT 1ST
EWC 1ST
▾
HIGH
Democrats take House majority.
The House is a foregone conclusion for Democrats: midterm elections are usually anti-incumbent, Republicans have only a two-seat majority, Democrats lead the generic ballot by about five points, and President Trump has a deeply negative approval rating. He expects 20-40 seats to shift to Democrats, giving them the House majority and the power of the purse.
Kalshi: Democrats win House LONG
Democrats take Senate despite tough map.
He argues the Senate is basically 50/50 today but Democrats will pull it off by November 3rd. The seat map is difficult because Democrats must defend many seats from their strong 2020 cycle and win places like Maine, Michigan, Alaska, Ohio and possibly Iowa or Texas, but anti-incumbent anger over inflation and inequality drives Democratic outperformance.
Kalshi: Democrats win Senate LONG
Full opposition Congress historically better for stocks.
Historically, the US stock market's real total return over the next 12 months is better when the opposition wins both houses of Congress than when it only takes one. A full Democratic Congress would need to pass popular bipartisan legislation with Trump, reducing paralysis, while a divided Congress risks shutdowns, debt-ceiling debacles and flat spending.
SPY WATCH
Treasury intervention insufficient; bond yields may rise.
With Congress paralyzed and tariff revenue lost, the deficit is bulging, bond markets are worried and yields are rising. Treasury buybacks of about $4 billion per operation are too small for a $30 trillion Treasury market, so intervention may backfire or be insufficient; the most the Treasury can do is try to prevent yields from blowing up before the election.
TLT AVOID
Trade war ultimately benefits Canada's economy.
He argues the Canada-US trade war is mostly bluster and de-escalation, and that the fight is good for Canada: it unites the country around Mark Carney, reduces secession risk, and enables provinces to expand infrastructure and trade ties with each other and foreign countries. The bullish case fails only if huge auto tariffs become the endgame, which he expects Trump to avoid.
EWC LONG
HIGH
16:45
Aug 26
Aug 26
GDXJ
GOLD
USD 1ST
GDX
KBE 1ST
▾
HIGH
Miners offer leveraged gold price exposure.
For investors willing to take company risk, gold miners are more attractive than bullion because rising gold prices increase miner earnings faster than the metal price. He prefers GDX for investors and GDXJ for speculators willing to work and endure volatility.
GDXJ LONG
GDX LONG
Buy physical gold as dollar debases.
The US government is counterfeiting and intervening in the long end of the Treasury market to cap yields, signaling that politics now matter more than dollar sanctity. Real yields are deeply negative with purchasing power eroding at 8-9% compounded while long bond yields are only 5.6-5.7%, so gold can rise even if nominal yields rise. Rick is adding to physical gold and decreasing dollar savings.
GOLD LONG
USD AVOID
US community banks are deeply cheap.
The US community banking sector is very cheap, with many small banks selling at substantial discounts to book value, earning 10% after tax on book and available at around a 15% after-tax earnings yield. Consolidation should continue as older owners sell, so he wants to allocate more to the sector.
KBE LONG
Copper miners tied to AI demand.
Copper has been stronger than he expected and he was wrong expecting economic weakness to moderate it. He rejects the idea copper is just an AI story, but says copper miners' investment case is supported by forecasted AI data-center and electrical buildout demand and an underlying global economy substantially stronger than anticipated.
COPX WATCH
HIGH
21:45
Aug 25
Aug 25
FXY 1ST
SILVER
US Dollar Index (DXY)
GLD
COPPER
▾
HIGH
Yen intervention fails; yen likely under pressure.
The U.S. Treasury and Bank of Japan yen intervention is unlikely to work and signals a return to discredited currency policies; because interventions cannot reliably reverse currency moves, the yen is likely to remain under pressure and the intervention is not a positive for the yen or Japanese economy.
FXY AVOID
Fiscal failures boost gold and silver demand.
The failed yen intervention and the Treasury's doubling of bond buybacks are read as signs of discredited monetary and fiscal management and economic weakness; this supports investment demand for gold and silver because investors see U.S. fiscal management as problematic amid persistent inflation.
SILVER LONG
Dollar is least-worst safe haven now.
The dollar is currently a safe haven alongside gold; while it may not inspire long-term confidence, it is still the best of the worst sovereign credits and the least-worst place to park large volumes of money, and dollar and gold can rise at the same time as in 1979.
US Dollar Index (DXY) LONG
Gold rises to $4,800-$5,000 by year-end.
CPM Group's average 2026 gold forecast is about $4,450, and Jeff expects gold to rise into the $4,800-$5,000 range by end-2026, possibly into 2027; the annual average may be revised higher because August prices are already above the expected path and upward pressure continues on economic, financial, and political instability.
GLD LONG
Copper overbought; election selloff risk.
CPM likes copper's longer-term supply and demand fundamentals, but Jeff thinks the copper price has run ahead of itself after six-to-eight weeks of speculative AI/data-center buying; if Democrats gain the upper hand in the election, copper could see a significant selloff as data-center demand expectations are hit.
COPPER WATCH
Oil near-term upside, longer-term lower.
Jeff expects shorter-term upside pressure for WTI oil but longer-term sideways-to-lower pressure; around $86 per barrel is slightly elevated, with market-clearing near $86 if industrialized real GDP growth exceeds 1.5% and closer to $70-$75 if growth is below 1.5%.
WTI LONG
HIGH
02:50
Aug 25
Aug 25
Bitcoin dominance
SPY
UUP
GLD 1ST
BTC FLIP
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin dominance uptrend continues over altcoins.
Bitcoin dominance has been in an uptrend for years. A full-blown altcoin season would likely require a parabolic Bitcoin rally first, so he does not expect a durable massive rotation into altcoins away from Bitcoin.
Bitcoin dominance LONG
Watch stock market for midterm correction.
In every midterm year since Bitcoin has existed, stocks had corrections at both the beginning and end of the year. The stock market may be starting to sniff out this seasonality and could see another correction before the end of 2026.
SPY WATCH
Dollar may begrudgingly rise short term.
Despite talk of devaluing the dollar, the dollar has held on and, similar to Trump's first term, may begrudgingly move higher in the short term until policymakers deliver a larger intervention; a dollar pop could cause risk-asset pullbacks.
UUP WATCH
Gold remains long-term bullish with higher low.
Gold remains long-term bullish. If there is a market correction later this year, gold is likely to print a higher low rather than a lower low because gold often bottoms in the summer of midterm years, and inflationary policy supports hard assets.
GLD LONG
Accumulate Bitcoin second half of midterm year.
His whale activity score has not increased during this spike, unlike prior major lows in 2018 and 2022. If whale activity does not pick up, Bitcoin could get at least one more scare in Q4, while rising whale activity would support continued spot demand.
BTC LONG
Energy sector still has room to run.
Energy has been a main bullish sector this year, just made new all-time highs, and historically energy has remained strong well after the stock market has topped, so he believes the energy sector still has room to run.
XLE LONG
HIGH
23:00
Aug 24
Aug 24
WTI
DBA
LCTD 1ST
KBE 1ST
GLD
▾
HIGH
Short WTI; lower highs continue.
Oil is bearish and he is short/selling rallies: the chart has made lower highs on each Iran/war headline, sanctions do not work, there is a glut of oil, and the backwardated front-month fear premium is a sell signal. He expects December WTI to fall below $70 and possibly into the $60s or mid-$50s by year-end.
WTI SHORT
Grains are cheap; upside remains.
Grain markets are seeing positive momentum and are still ridiculously cheap relative to production costs; diesel and hydrous ammonia are near record highs, and at roughly $5 corn farmers are only starting to be profitable, so grains can keep moving higher.
DBA LONG
Cattle still has downside room.
Cattle has dropped about 20% from its highs, and he thinks there is still a lot of room to the downside as falling cattle and hog prices make poultry relatively better; the cattle market remains under pressure.
LCTD SHORT
Avoid banks; stress-test problems.
He believes banks have serious problems and could not pass a legitimate stress test; the Fed/Treasury intervention is trying to get ahead of hidden trouble, similar to 2008 when officials claimed banks were safe. This makes bank equities unattractive/fragile.
KBE AVOID
Stay long gold; buy pullbacks.
He has been long gold since around $4,000 and expects it to continue higher because Fed/Treasury intervention devalues the dollar and inflationary pressure supports hard assets. After gold's $115 two-day spike, he would not chase and would wait for a pullback for a better entry.
GLD LONG
Hold long-term Bitcoin; await pullback.
As a trader, he is selling Bitcoin now because the daily chart is about four standard deviations from the mean, overbought on volume, making a double top against the May high, and this looks like a blow-off top. He expects Bitcoin to be $4,000-$5,000 cheaper at some point before the next conversation.
BTC LONG
Silver has biggest short-term upside.
Silver probably has the most short-term upside because it has not moved like gold, was cut roughly in half and is still down about 44% from its all-time high, and money flow should rotate into silver as the 'poor man's gold'.
SILVER LONG
Short stock market; big selloff beginning.
From a trading standpoint, he is shorting the stock market and looking for short opportunities because he has a downside bias and believes this is the beginning of a 40-60% selloff, with acceleration likely after Labor Day. He sells extended rallies and only buys oversold bounces.
SPY SHORT
HIGH
20:32
Aug 24
Aug 24
CoreWeave 1ST
GDX
BTC 1ST
SMH 1ST
GLD
▾
HIGH
CoreWeave's fundamentals stay poor; avoid it.
Danny singles out CoreWeave as an AI infrastructure name he believes will never make money and has a poor balance sheet. He notes the stock round-tripped after its earnings beat, moving from the high 80s/low 90s to about 115-116 and then back below those levels, illustrating the AI financing and valuation risk.
CoreWeave AVOID
Buy gold every dip on dollar debasement.
Danny argues that Treasury and Fed interventions—BOJ repo access, expanded bond buybacks, the $1 trillion TGA war chest, and possible future QE—are forms of yield curve control and dollar debasement. Rather than trying to time the S&P, he says the cleanest trade is to buy gold. He notes gold moved from around 4,000 to 4,700 after the BOJ intervention, and that real rates, central bank and sovereign buying, and loss of dollar reserve status support buying every dip. Silver and gold miners are also ways to express the same view.
GDX LONG
GLD LONG
SILVER LONG
Bitcoin is short-dollar debasement trade.
Danny says Bitcoin and crypto are another delayed expression of the same short-US-dollar or loss-of-faith-in-the-system trade as gold. He links the Bitcoin rally to the Treasury buyback and BOJ intervention, and frames both gold and Bitcoin as plays on dollar debasement rather than trying to time risk assets.
BTC LONG
Semiconductors face AI risk repricing.
Danny explains the semiconductor selloff as a recalibration of AI spending between hyperscalers and chipmakers, with Nvidia likely to beat and guide up but still fade on elevated expectations. He says China competition is real, OpenAI does not make money, energy and power infrastructure math is uncertain, and the market is repricing risk and applying a higher discount rate to long-dated AI/semiconductor earnings, similar to the dot-com fiber buildout.
SMH AVOID
HIGH
23:10
Aug 23
Aug 23
BTC
QQQ 1ST
AIQ 1ST
GLD
ETH/BTC
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin bear market likely over.
Bitcoin's bear market is likely over: it held near the 200-week moving average, Bollinger Bands compressed to an extreme low-volatility coil, and the breakout was driven by the biggest Bitcoin short liquidation on record, returning ETF inflows, and Treasury buyback liquidity similar to the March 2023 SVB backstop that began a 5x bull run.
BTC LONG
Crypto beats AI/Nasdaq risk-reward now.
Crypto is the beaten-down asset class while the Nasdaq and small-cap AI stocks sit at all-time highs; he personally reduced AI/Nasdaq exposure and added crypto because risk-return is better in a depressed market just starting an uptrend than in peak-exuberance stocks.
QQQ AVOID
AIQ AVOID
Treasury backstop pushes gold silver higher.
Treasury Secretary Bessent is signaling the Treasury will do whatever it takes to bring down long-end yields, and because they will double down rather than retreat, the liquidity and backstop are "the best news" for Bitcoin, gold, and silver holders, with prices likely to continue rising.
GLD LONG
SILVER LONG
Ethereum is outperforming Bitcoin.
ETF investors bought much more Ethereum than Bitcoin during the rebound, and the ETH/BTC chart is up about 10%, showing Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin; this reflects a broad crypto bid with Ethereum taking a larger relative share.
ETH/BTC LONG
ETH LONG
Altcoins follow Bitcoin with higher beta.
In the early stage of a crypto bull run, investors wait for Bitcoin to establish confidence and then money flows down the risk curve into Ethereum and altcoins; many altcoins have already outperformed Bitcoin by large margins, and if the crypto rally continues another week or two, capital chasing large weekly gains will rotate into crypto altcoins.
ALTCOINS LONG
Own Ethereum, Solana, maybe Sui.
For crypto portfolio construction, after Bitcoin the next allocation should be layer-one blockchain rails, and the winners have already been selected: Ethereum, Solana, and possibly Sui.
SOL LONG
SUI LONG
Buy revenue-generating buyback-and-burn protocols.
The best crypto applications are those with product-market fit, real revenue, network effect, and mechanisms to return money to token holders via buyback-and-burn; Hyperliquid earns significant trading fees and burns tokens, while Pump.fun earns about $1 million per day and burns about $500k per day.
PUMP.FUN LONG
HYPE LONG
Zcash is a top crypto holding.
Zcash is like Bitcoin but anonymous, with the same proof-of-work mechanism and 21 million coin supply; early Bitcoin backers are now supporting it, and the first Zcash ETF starts trading August 25, opening Wall Street access. It is one of his biggest positions.
ZEC LONG
HIGH
15:00
Aug 22
Aug 22
BTC 1ST
TLT
USD
30-year US Treasury bonds
10-year US Treasury yield
▾
HIGH
Gold is preferred fiscal crisis hedge.
With the US approaching $40 trillion of national debt, about $7 trillion of Treasury refinancing per year, and interest costs exceeding defense spending, the US is headed for a fiscal crisis. In that crisis there is no place to hide except gold or Bitcoin, and central banks are buying gold hand over fist, making gold the preferred haven; gold could reach $17,000 an ounce in a Treasury collapse.
BTC LONG
GLD LONG
Long-term Treasuries lack real long-term buyers.
The long end of the Treasury market is weak: rising yields reflect weakness in the underlying market, currency, and economy, so higher yields are not attracting the real long-term buyers needed. Pension funds, insurance companies, foreign governments and institutions—the buy-and-hold 20/30-year buyers—are not interested, and much of the reported foreign participation is hedge funds in the Cayman Islands.
TLT AVOID
Aggressive Fed intervention risks dollar downside.
If the Federal Reserve decides to become even more aggressive with market intervention, the US dollar could see much more downside; the Treasury is currently playing a game of chicken, and aggressive intervention is the path to dollar weakness.
USD WATCH
30-year Treasury yield can rise 50bps.
The Treasury is picking a fight with a bond market much larger than itself, and it does not have enough firepower; yields round-tripped after the buyback and long-term yields are headed higher. The Fed may ultimately need QE or yield curve control, but those are dangerous, expensive band-aids while inflation is still a problem.
30-year US Treasury bonds SHORT
Watch 10-year Treasury yield above 5%.
A break above 5% on the 10-year Treasury yield is the scary Defcon-1 line where things would really start to break; the bond market is taking control from the Federal Reserve, and with $40 trillion of debt and over $1 trillion in interest expense, the 10-year yield above 5% is the key threshold to watch.
10-year US Treasury yield WATCH
HIGH
16:11
Aug 21
Aug 21
ENA
Flop token
US AI/tech sector
BTC
AI data center/hyperscaler capex complex
▾
HIGH
Buy Ethereum, Ethena, EtherFi at lows.
Maelstrom has increased its Ethereum position and bought Ethena and EtherFi because sentiment is despondent and these are good levels at the turn; Arthur is allocating outside Bitcoin again.
ENA LONG
ETHFI LONG
ETH LONG
Flop token benefits from agentic AI economy.
Arthur's Flop Network is a fair-launch token for a decentralized compute spot market; he argues AI agents need a native currency directly convertible into compute and memory storage, and the token accrues value if agents use the network.
Flop token LONG
Government-backed US AI tech risky long term.
Arthur warns that US government underwriting of AI is a short-term sugar high but long-term negative for shareholders; state priorities diverge from shareholder returns, and Chinese tech stocks such as Alibaba and Tencent show how government-backed tech bull markets end.
US AI/tech sector AVOID
Gold, Bitcoin rally on AI money printing.
Arthur argues that AI is entering the capital wastage phase, and as more printed money must be funneled into AI to keep the players afloat, gold and bitcoin should start to perform.
BTC LONG
GLD LONG
AI capex expansion not over yet.
Arthur sees AI data-center capex as still in a credit expansion, not a bubble top; the SEC loosened CDO rules and the market rewards capex announcements, so the last third or half of the AI credit story remains. The cycle should turn when a hyperscaler defects and capex decelerates, likely 2027 to early 2028.
AI data center/hyperscaler capex complex WATCH
Ethereum above $5,000 triggers altcoin boom.
Arthur is invested in altcoins and says an Ethereum move above 5,000 would create a generalized altcoin boom; he notes Hyperliquid has already outperformed.
ALTCOINS LONG
HIGH
03:40
Aug 21
Aug 21
CORN 1ST
10-Year U.S. Treasury Note
30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond
Global sovereign bonds
UUP
▾
HIGH
Agriculture and fertilizer bull continues.
The Bloomberg agriculture index is at its highest since May 2024. Peter sees the energy bull market spreading to agriculture, with high fertilizer prices forcing farmers to use less fertilizer, reducing soil nutrients and yields, and ultimately pushing crop prices higher. He cites $7 wheat, $5 corn and near $13 soybeans as levels that matter if they hold, and expects the fertilizer bull market to continue into next year.
CORN LONG
BCOMAG LONG
WEAT LONG
SOYB LONG
CF LONG
Long-end yields head higher still.
The Treasury's increase in bond buybacks from $2bn to $4bn is too small, is not Fed money printing, and is only a temporary respite without a change in fiscal fundamentals. Peter expects the long end to keep rising in the U.S. and globally, with 10- and 30-year yields moving higher after the brief buyback announcement reversal.
10-Year U.S. Treasury Note SHORT
30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond SHORT
Global sovereign bonds SHORT
Dollar faces major structural challenges.
Peter is not bullish on the dollar and has not been; he sees a major diversification in trade and capital flows that over time will be dollar negative, and the Treasury's attempt to force long rates lower risks making the dollar collateral damage. DXY is already at a three-month low.
UUP SHORT
Bitcoin may become digital gold.
Bitcoin's sudden rally alongside gold may mark the beginning of Bitcoin trading like digital gold instead of the Nasdaq, which Peter says is what a Bitcoin holder should want. It still needs follow-through; otherwise the move may just reflect crypto legislation efforts from White House crypto people.
BTC WATCH
Rising long rates threaten equities.
After four years of a bond bear market, the rise in long rates has reached an inflection point where equity investors are beginning to care. Peter expects long rates to keep heading higher and says that will eventually be a problem for the equity market.
SPY AVOID
CCC and private credit refinancing risk.
CCC-rated high yield spreads have widened above their Liberation Day levels, a yellow flag that the lower tier of credit is getting worried. Private credit retail inflows have dried up, and loans made over the last 3-5 years are coming due over the next couple of years at potentially much higher rates.
CCC-rated high yield bonds AVOID
BIZD AVOID
Weaker dollar supports international, EM assets.
Because Peter believes the dollar will ultimately end up lower, he also owns international stocks and international bonds, particularly in emerging markets, which he expects to benefit from a weaker dollar.
International stocks LONG
BNDX LONG
EEM LONG
Emerging market bonds LONG
Commodities and commodity stocks bull run.
Peter runs about one third of his portfolio in commodities and commodity stocks because he believes this is a commodity bull run. He notes last year's precious and industrial metals rally, this year's energy bull market, and now an agricultural extension, and says he is already positioned for it.
DBC LONG
XLB LONG
Favor U.S. short duration over long.
On the fixed income side Peter is more in U.S. short duration because he expects long rates to rise and wants to avoid long-duration exposure; this is his portfolio implementation of the long-end bearish view.
short-duration U.S. Treasuries LONG
HIGH
19:54
Aug 20
Aug 20
GLD
SILVER
GDX
BTC
TLT
▾
HIGH
Gold rally unconfirmed, wait for trend change.
Gold, silver, and miners have had a strong news-driven rally, but Chris still sees a longer-term correction with lower highs and lower lows. Gold is below a flat or declining 150-day moving average, and he wants to see prior highs broken, moving averages layered back in order, and more time before treating this as a new bull phase. He is on the sidelines and not buying the rally yet.
GLD WATCH
SILVER WATCH
GDX WATCH
Bitcoin pop likely bounce in downtrend.
Bitcoin's 17% two-day pop is a news and emotion-driven move within a broader downtrend. The long-term moving averages are sloping down, price is below the 150-day average, and the structure looks like bear flags with rallies serving as pauses. He is not trying to pick a bottom and wants confirmation of a base and sustained trend reversal before buying.
BTC WATCH
Bonds weak, long-term yields creeping higher.
Long-term Treasury yields are breaking out of a large monthly pattern, and the 30-year yield chart is pointing to an 8% move. Chris expects rates to keep creeping higher and bonds to weaken. He says he would steer clear of bonds or bet on falling bond prices, specifically mentioning TLT, as high rates also threaten borrowing tied to AI data centers.
TLT SHORT
US30Y LONG
S&P and Nasdaq uptrends have more upside.
The S&P 500 is digesting a breakout and has a daily setup pointing to roughly 8,100-8,200, while the weekly bull flag points to about 8,500. The Nasdaq has a similarly large bull flag pointing to roughly 18-20% upside. Long-term equity trends are up, and Chris says they own the S&P 500 and Nasdaq after re-entering a few weeks ago.
SPY LONG
QQQ LONG
HIGH
01:04
Aug 20
Aug 20
GLD
CCC-rated bonds
US Homebuilders
XLY 1ST
TLT 1ST
▾
MED
Treasury credit-crisis fears support gold.
She says she was tiptoeing back into gold and is happy she did. If the Treasury is worried that high long-end yields could deepen the credit crisis, that is good for gold as a safe haven even though it is not good for risk assets.
GLD LONG
Credit crisis pressures high-yield debt.
High rates are turbocharging the credit crisis. Triple-C bond yield spreads show clear stress, and heavy corporate issuance and refinancing are adding upward pressure to yields, making credit conditions worse.
CCC-rated bonds AVOID
High rates hurt housing and builders.
Interest-rate-sensitive housing is being harmed by high rates and lost full-time jobs. Home builders are offering record discounts, housing starts are at the lowest since 2022, apartment operators are offering record concessions, and pending home sales are near record lows.
US Homebuilders AVOID
Consumers lack discretionary purchasing power.
The country's largest retailers are saying consumers do not have the wherewithal for discretionary purchases and only have money for essentials, reflecting weak full-time job losses and high borrowing costs.
XLY AVOID
Weak data may spark Treasury rally.
If weak labor market reports and core inflation misses continue, the narrative may flip to when the Fed will cut rates. In an easing environment with the Treasury running an Operation Twist-like buyback, there could be a real rally across the Treasury curve.
TLT LONG
MED
20:06
Aug 19
Aug 19
COPPER
GLD
SILVER 1ST
GDX
GDXJ
▾
HIGH
Copper leads mid-cycle with tight supply.
Copper is entering the middle of the commodity cycle where it historically leads and outperforms gold. Despite all-time highs, copper has lagged gold for two years, and the supply picture is tight 3-5 years out because projects take years to build and production disappointments are common, leaving insufficient copper to meet demand.
COPPER LONG
Gold benefits from monetary easing and deficits.
Gold has been rising despite a strong dollar, higher yields, and higher oil, which signals fundamental fragility and foreshadows monetary easing or yield curve control. Persistent fiscal deficits, currency devaluation, and continued central bank and Tether buying support the gold bull market.
GLD LONG
Silver participation signals powerful precious metals rally.
Silver has moved up with gold and on some timeframes has outperformed gold. The participation of the more speculative metal and junior miners is a sign of a very positive precious metals market.
SILVER LONG
Gold stocks are cheap and underowned.
Investors need to be in gold and gold stocks. Gold miners have nine consecutive quarters of increasing free cash flow, huge margins, and valuations near long-term lows, yet institutional and generalist investors have not yet flooded in. He has been buying the sector heavily.
GDX LONG
GDXJ LONG
Long-dated Treasuries lack real buyers.
Real buy-and-hold buyers for 20- and 30-year Treasuries are fading. Foreign participation is increasingly hedge funds trading rather than pension funds, insurers, or foreign governments, and higher yields reflect underlying market weakness. The Treasury is intervening because demand is falling more than supply.
TLT AVOID
Brixton's high-grade silver drill results worth watching.
Brixton Metals' Langis silver project in Ontario returned exceptional high-grade drill results, including 20 meters grading 5.15 g/t silver and a 65-meter interval grading 89,125 g/t silver. With drilling continuing and silver above $60, it is becoming a silver story worth watching toward a potential resource.
BBB.V WATCH
BBBXF WATCH
Agnico Eagle combines huge margins, cheap valuation.
Agnico Eagle, the second-largest gold miner, has all-in sustaining costs around $1,549 with gold above $4,000, producing unprecedented margins. The stock's valuation is closer to long-term lows than to averages, making it a standout among the big miners.
AEM LONG
HIGH
21:07
Aug 18
Aug 18
DBC 1ST
GDX
Equities
GLD FLIP
XLRE 1ST
▾
HIGH
Stagflation bullish for unprintable real assets
Lobo's stagflation outlook, driven by weakening labor conditions, the oil squeeze, deficit spending and sticky inflation, makes him bullish on anything governments cannot print: monetary metals, real estate and other commodities should rise at least nominally in fiat terms.
DBC LONG
XLRE LONG
Not chasing gold/silver rebound; bottom unproven
Lobo has not bought the current gold/silver rebound and is not chasing gold and silver mining stocks after the sharp rally. He argues a 10% bounce does not prove the bottom is in, cites post-2011 bear-market rallies that were head fakes, and says media excitement plus crowded momentum is not a contrarian buying opportunity.
GDX AVOID
GLD AVOID
SILVER AVOID
Higher risk-free rates make equities unattractive
If the risk-free rate spikes, the case for buying equities and risk assets erodes. Lobo says investors worried about rising yields should focus on how long the stock market rally can continue against higher rates.
Equities AVOID
Oil stays higher on Hormuz bottleneck
Oil is likely to stay higher for longer because there is no near-term alternative to the Strait of Hormuz for GCC oil exports. The Iraq-Syria pipeline is years and billions away, and even a ceasefire would not quickly restore the required oil flows. Even current oil prices create stagflationary knock-on effects.
WTI LONG
Hold years of expenses in physical bullion
Lobo treats physical gold and silver bullion as savings and insurance rather than speculation. He recommends a prudent position of at least one year of living expenses in physically controlled bullion, and ideally two to three years for comfort, because bullion can be liquidated in an emergency while real estate cannot.
GOLD LONG
SILVER LONG
Copper long-term demand supports bullishness
Near term, copper has a dangerous binary tariff catalyst. Inventories are moving to the US ahead of possible Trump copper tariffs, and last year a tariff announcement that excluded key copper forms caused copper to fall sharply. Chasing all-time highs here is risky because copper could go either way.
COPPER LONG
Uranium spot should catch contract price upward
The uranium setup is attractive because spot uranium has been unusually lagging the climbing long-term contract price, and historically spot catches up and overshoots. Uranium stocks move with leverage to spot, so a spot up-move could drive significant stock gains. Reactor buildouts and US policy support the story without needing AI hype.
Uranium Stocks LONG
URA LONG
HIGH
01:44
Aug 18
Aug 18
GLD
SPY
HKD 1ST
FXY
TLT
▾
HIGH
Gold secular bull market, $6,000 target.
Gold has finished its consolidation and is rising; Hanke holds a secular bull market view and reiterated his public target of about $6,000 per ounce, saying he remains on board with that call.
GLD LONG
Higher long yields are stock headwind.
If the 30-year Treasury yield rises as he expects, it is an obvious headwind for the stock market.
SPY AVOID
Hong Kong dollar currency board unbreakable.
Hong Kong survived the Asian financial crisis intact because its currency board fixes the Hong Kong dollar to the U.S. dollar with 100% US-dollar backing and no discretionary monetary policy. That structure is impossible to blow up: reserves match liabilities, arbitrage stabilizes demand, and no currency board has ever failed historically.
HKD LONG
Yen intervention failed; yen keeps weakening.
The July 31 joint US-BOJ yen intervention caused only a dead-cat bounce and did not change the fundamentals: Japan's M2 money supply growth is very slow, nominal GDP growth is weak, and a rising fiscal deficit plus the highest advanced-economy debt/GDP ratio add further pressure. Short sellers remain, and unless fundamentals change the yen will keep depreciating and authorities may have to intervene again.
FXY SHORT
30-year Treasury yields can surge higher.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield can rise at least 50 basis points from current levels because war disruptions in Iran/Gulf/Red Sea are supply shocks, U.S. inflation is still not contained, and the U.S. fiscal deficit forces heavy Treasury issuance. These factors outweigh any yen-intervention indirect yield control.
TLT SHORT
HIGH
17:04
Aug 17
Aug 17
SHOP 1ST
APP 1ST
BW 1ST
AVGO 1ST
WIX 1ST
▾
HIGH
Shopify shows strong performance with blowout earnings.
Added to Shopify, which has had blowout earnings over the last couple of quarters and finally rallied after its most recent good earnings report.
SHOP LONG
AppLovin has significant upside despite near-term choppiness.
AppLovin is a wonderful company that still has about 50% upside and could easily reach $500 over the next two years, despite near-term choppiness and concerns about revenue deceleration.
APP LONG
Power infrastructure benefits from data center demand.
Benefiting from the AI and data center trends, Babcock and Wilcox preferred shares basically doubled and the stock was up 40%.
BW LONG
AI compute race drives infrastructure demand.
The AI race is creating a mad dash for compute, leading to continued high demand for high bandwidth memory (HBM), energy/grid connections, liquid cooling, advanced GPUs, custom silicon, and Broadcom products, despite the eventual symmetric risk of overbuilding.
AVGO LONG
HBM LONG
Heavily shorted software names offer contrarian upside.
Software names were heavily shorted by hedge funds as a hedge against long AI stocks, leading to systematic selling. Bought names like DataDog, Wix, ServiceNow, and Snowflake as contrarian bets with strong moats.
WIX LONG
DDOG LONG
NOW LONG
SNOW LONG
Memory stocks offer value after recent sell-offs.
Memory names were trading at very low multiples (e.g., four times earnings) during the July sell-off, presenting a good short-term trading opportunity.
000660.KS LONG
NANYA LONG
DRAM ETF LONG
Gold miners benefit from peaking real rates.
The gold miner space is attractive as real rates have temporarily peaked. Specific names like AGI are set to ramp production, while others like Barrick and Agnico Eagle are also strong holdings alongside physical gold and silver.
PHYS LONG
AGI LONG
B LONG
Kinross Gold LONG
AEM LONG
WBD merger arb offers a 19% spread.
The Warner Brothers spread is one of the big merger arb spreads in the market, offering a 19% cash deal spread that is expected to go through antitrust and close next year.
WBD LONG
NSC UNP merger arb offers 12.5% spread.
Long the NSC UNP spread, which offers a 12.5% spread on the merger arb side.
UNP LONG
NSC LONG
High-quality mortgage originator offers sustainable dividend yield.
Redwood was bought during an index rebalancing sell-off driven by interest rate fears. It is a well-run business doing high-quality mortgage origination and securitization for high-FICO individuals, offering a sustainable 15% dividend yield.
RWT LONG
AI cloud providers see massive revenue growth.
Bought Nebius and CoreWeave as GPU lease rates went up during the AI sell-off. Both companies crushed earnings, with Nebius showing massive revenue growth, positive operating cash flow, and strong customer prepayments for future capacity.
NEBIUS LONG
CoreWeave LONG
Hyperscalers face risks from massive AI CapEx.
While still liking Google, Microsoft, and Amazon, investors must be careful as these are no longer capital-light businesses. They are burning cash flow on massive AI CapEx, which the market is beginning to penalize.
MSFT WATCH
GOOG WATCH
AMZN WATCH
Expect a short-term rally before pre-election caution.
The market is in a short-term Goldilocks environment with a temporary peak in the 10-year yield, supporting a rally for a few weeks. However, caution is warranted going into the November midterm elections due to potential re-escalation in Iran and new tariffs.
SPY WATCH
Long-term rates are expected to stabilize.
Bought TLT as long-term rates are expected to stay flat or go down a little bit, with no big 10-year spike expected unless there is a massive escalation in the war.
TLT LONG
Uber is cheap and generates massive cash.
Uber is very cheap, trading at 12 times forward earnings after a 30% drawdown. It is expected to generate $10 billion in free cash flow this year and grow to $15 billion by 2028, making it a strong long-term buy despite autonomous driving risks.
UBER LONG
Sold Atlassian due to software sector volatility.
Sold Atlassian to take gains after a volatile period, as there is a lack of confidence to own software in the same size as before due to the choppiness and AI-related shorting pressure.
TEAM AVOID
Geopolitics drive defense and sovereign supply chains.
A defense super cycle and geopolitical realignment will drive global defense spending. Governments will subsidize domestic production in critical sectors like rare earths, energy storage, and semiconductors to build sovereign supply chains.
REMX LONG
ICLN LONG
ITA LONG
SMH LONG
AI data centers drive sustained power demand.
The AI pivot from chip hype to power and ROI highlights the energy and grid bottleneck. Power companies like VST, battery infrastructure, and co-location companies will see sustained demand because data centers need power every year.
VST LONG
HIGH
00:03
Aug 16
Aug 16
QQQ
XLK 1ST
GLD 1ST
WMB 1ST
MAIN 1ST
▾
HIGH
Expect eventual 70% Nasdaq crash.
He warns that this golden era of technology will likely end in a big bubble and could produce a Nasdaq-style 70% collapse like 2000-2003 once the boom reaches a plateau, though he does not think the market is there yet.
QQQ WATCH
Tech bull only halfway, buy XLK.
Mark Skousen says the 2020s are a replay of the roaring 1920s and the technology bull market is only halfway; AI, space technology, drones and defense spending are booming, and he recommends XLK, the technology ETF, expecting the sector to take off again after floundering.
XLK LONG
Gold as inflation and crisis hedge.
He views gold as the critical long-term inflation signal and a refuge for a Treasury/debt crisis; it is near its 200-day moving average and would likely keep rising if it breaks higher, central banks are buying gold aggressively, and he previously predicted $5,000 gold.
GLD LONG
Likes energy stocks EPD and WMB.
He says he likes energy stocks such as Enterprise Products and Williams Companies as good holdings for his diversified portfolio to stay ahead of the market in a persistent inflation environment.
WMB LONG
EPD LONG
MAIN favored unique monthly dividend.
He recommends Main Street Capital (MAIN) as one of his favorite income stocks because it is the only stock in the entire universe that pays both a monthly and a quarterly dividend, and it fits his diversified portfolio for staying ahead of inflation.
MAIN LONG
S&P won't crash without crisis.
David Lin argues that the S&P 500 only corrects 40-50% during crises or external shocks, and that the market will not self-correct more than 20% just because investors think it is overvalued; therefore a major correction beyond 20% is unlikely absent a financial crisis or global shutdown.
SPY WATCH
US Treasuries vulnerable to rate shock.
He warns the US is headed for a crisis because Treasury must refinance about $7 trillion annually and interest on the debt now exceeds defense spending; if buyers shun Treasuries, the Treasury may have to raise rates dramatically, with the 30-year bond already above 5% signaling rate pressure.
TLT WATCH
HIGH
19:11
Aug 14
Aug 14
SPY FLIP
EWY 1ST
BTC
IBIT
XRP 1ST
▾
HIGH
S&P 500 hits 8,100-8,200 by year-end.
Near-term charts point higher; weak retail sales, weakening jobs and stable-but-elevated inflation reduce Fed rate-hike odds, supporting risk assets. He targets S&P 500 around 8,100-8,200 by year-end, then expects serious trouble in early 2027.
SPY LONG
KOSPI and semiconductors rally on Fed cuts.
Weakening economic data shifted Fed expectations from hikes to stationary policy and potential cuts in 2027, which means cheaper money and risk-on flows, leading KOSPI/South Korean stocks and semiconductors back to rallying.
EWY LONG
SMH LONG
Bitcoin near-term rally to $70,000-$75,000.
Bitcoin's breakout has been weak but it remains above the trend line, giving a near-term bullish bias. He expects the president to push crypto clarity legislation before the midterms to win crypto voters, which could produce a 10-15% rally toward $70,000-$75,000, maybe $80,000. He also owns IBIT for exposure.
BTC LONG
IBIT LONG
XRP wedge breakout; holds for upside.
He holds XRP because the chart shows a major wedge pattern breakout against the dollar, and he is looking for a catalyst; it is one of his current crypto positions.
XRP LONG
Wait for semi retracements, then short.
He still sees more near-term upside in semiconductor names, but is waiting for Micron and SanDisk to retrace 61.8% Fibonacci of their recent roughly 40% falls, and is watching SK hynix for a larger bounce, before loading shorts in the AI/semiconductor space.
MU WATCH
SNDK WATCH
000660.KS WATCH
Watch 10-year yield above 5%.
He says the key danger level is above 5% on the 10-year Treasury yield; at that point higher rates become truly scary because mortgage/housing pressure and interest costs on $40 trillion debt can stress the whole economy, while the bond market rather than the Fed takes control.
10-Year Treasury Yield WATCH
Buy gold pullbacks; target $13,000 by 2029-2031.
Gold has broken out of a large wedge, is making higher lows and higher highs, and should be bought on pullbacks toward $3,900-$4,000. Debt and macro negatives support gold, and he calculates a $13,000 target by 2029-2031.
GLD LONG
HIGH
15:01
Aug 14
Aug 14
KSCP 1ST
▾
HIGH
Autonomous security force combines tech and humans.
The Event Risk acquisition adds human security agents to Knightscope's technology stack and creates cross-selling opportunities: technology clients can add human agents, and security-force clients can add robots; Li says the combined 434-client base represents billions in security spend, with top five clients around $850 million annually.
KSCP LONG
HIGH
21:35
Aug 13
Aug 13
WTI
▾
HIGH
Hormuz oil supply remains constrained
Plans to bypass the Strait of Hormuz with pipelines through the UAE will not work soon because construction would take far too long and many exports like fertilizers and chemicals cannot be moved by pipeline. The Strait will remain strategically important for a long time, even though the Persian Gulf's share of world oil has declined from around 40% to 21-22% as Brazil, the US, and other producers pump more.
WTI WATCH
HIGH
16:32
Aug 13
Aug 13
COPPER
SILVER
AI value chain
PALL FLIP
FXY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Copper poised for vertical moonshot.
Copper is in a hockey-stick chart setup and is headed for a vertical moonshot because electrification, AI buildout, re-industrialization and the need for far more electricity all require copper, while new copper mines take 10-20 years to build and supply is already too tight.
COPPER LONG
Buy gold and silver for inflation protection.
Gold and silver are good as long-term savings and inflation hedges at these prices, especially with future money printing likely to cause elevated inflation; he supports dollar-cost averaging into gold and silver for savers, but does not expect a speculative parabolic run to $8,000 by Christmas.
SILVER LONG
GLD LONG
AI value chain will go nuts.
The entire AI value chain is going to go nuts because AI is fundamentally energy plus hardware; the buildout spans hardware, energy, data centers and financing, so investors should follow the whole chain from the trunk down through the roots.
AI value chain LONG
Platinum interesting; palladium not interesting.
Among precious metals, platinum is looking interesting and he would get into investment platinum, while palladium is not looking interesting.
PALL AVOID
PPLT LONG
Yen chart is bearish.
The Japanese yen had an intervention spike but is now floating down, which is a bearish chart pattern; he sees yen weakness rather than a sustained rally.
FXY SHORT
Watch semiconductor range breakout direction.
Semiconductors rebounded sharply but the chart looks like a possible bull trap near the top of a range; he would not buy now but would watch whether the index breaks above the range and heads higher or breaks down and drops significantly.
SMH WATCH
Bitcoin breakdown could target under 40,000.
Bitcoin is boring and repeatedly subject to theft, making it unsafe to hold; he would watch the current range, with a breakdown likely sending it under $40,000 and a breakout open-ended.
BTC WATCH
AI financiers earn huge infrastructure fees.
Goldman Sachs and other leading underwriters and asset managers — Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield and KKR — are positioned to benefit from Nvidia's AI compute infrastructure partnerships; they are involved in funding $500 billion of third-party capital and could earn about 7% of that, roughly $35 billion.
GS LONG
APO LONG
BLK LONG
BX LONG
BEP LONG
KKR LONG
Energy and oil will get more expensive.
Long term, all energy will become much more expensive, and oil will rise because supply is finite and cannot be produced fast enough; electricity will be redirected toward re-industrialization and AI, encouraging continued use of petrol and diesel.
WTI LONG
XLE LONG
Liquidity injections keep pushing equities higher.
Massive liquidity injections from the Treasury and M2 expansion, needed for AI buildout, onshoring and re-industrialization, repeatedly rescue markets and push asset prices higher; the S&P 500 is in a long-term straight-line uptrend, and after the latest liquidity injection he is very long equities and expects the market to break higher.
SPY LONG
Commodity vertical cycles are starting.
The cycle of commodity verticals has already begun because physical commodities, machinery, sheds, cables and other real assets were discounted for years and are now being reshored to America, while much of the supply base remains concentrated in China.
DBC LONG
HIGH
21:04
Aug 12
Aug 12
SMH 1ST
XLP
XLV 1ST
XLY 1ST
USD/JPY
▾
HIGH
Sell the semiconductor AI dead cat bounce.
The recent violent rebound in semiconductors, memory, and the AI trade is a dead cat bounce after the July waterfall. Positioning was record crowded, retail call buying hit all-time highs, major hedge funds took large July losses and face redemption requests, so institutions are using the bounce to sell into retail strength. Most semis and memory names have not made new highs, and revenue/earnings expectations are at extremes similar to 2022 and 2000.
SMH AVOID
Buy consumer staples, healthcare, and discretionary.
Consumer confidence is starting to turn up from multi-decade or all-time lows, unemployment is still only 4%, and energy prices are rangebound. Defensive areas such as consumer staples and healthcare are washed out, while consumer discretionary is at roughly 10-year relative lows versus the S&P 500 and has a very low bar. He recommends a barbell of defensive consumer and offensive consumer exposure.
XLP LONG
XLV LONG
XLY LONG
Short USD/JPY for stronger yen, weaker dollar.
The US and Japan are now aligned, and the yen will either naturally or through intervention stabilize and appreciate relative to the dollar over the next couple of years. The carry trade is already being mitigated, and he wants to play a weaker dollar and stronger yen despite short-term countertrend moves.
USD/JPY SHORT
Buy Diageo as safe consumer staples turnaround.
Diageo is the premier high-end spirits and Guinness beer purveyor, cut in half from 2021 highs but still generating about $3 billion in free cash flow and growing double digits outside the US. The turnaround under CEO Dave Lewis is fixing the tequila problem. It has 13.4% ROIC, offers a margin of safety, and AI should help margins rather than disintermediate the business.
DEO LONG
Buy Disney for experiences and IP monetization.
Disney is a cheap long-term consumer discretionary play. The parks are packed, the new CEO comes from the high-ROIC experiences side, streaming is now free-cash-flow positive, ESPN is valuable, box office is strong, and the company is monetizing its IP library through parks and cruise ships.
DIS LONG
Avoid software due to AI disintermediation risk.
Software is cheap and some names may be generational buys, but AI could fully disintermediate many software business models within five years. Because he cannot be certain there will not be capital impairment, he keeps software in the too-hard box.
IGV AVOID
Buy Dentsply Sirona for defensive healthcare turnaround.
Dentsply Sirona is a defensive healthcare company and the largest supplier of dental supplies since the late 1800s. The stock was hit by bad management, but management used a large portion of tariff refunds to buy back stock in the hole, signaling they believe the shares are cheap.
XRAY LONG
HIGH
17:04
Aug 12
Aug 12
GLD 1ST
SPY
ETH 1ST
CAT 1ST
MU
▾
HIGH
Fiat debasement and yield capping drive gold.
Fiat money is being debased by 8% to 9% a year based on M2 growth, and the Bretton Woods system is over. Gold is in a secular bull market and is projected to reach $9,000 as authorities are forced to cap yields and monetize debt.
GLD LONG
Supply-side policies and AI capex drive earnings.
The US is escaping secular stagnation through supply-side economic policies and an AI-driven capex boom that will drive real economic growth. The S&P 500 is expected to reach 10,000 next year based on $440 in earnings, and potentially 14,000 to 15,000 by the 2028 election.
SPY LONG
Wall Street is adopting Ethereum alongside Bitcoin.
Wall Street is coalescing around a select few crypto winners as the world transitions into the digital age, with Ethereum being one of the primary beneficiaries alongside Bitcoin.
ETH LONG
Buy high-quality large caps and rotate capital.
Investors should avoid getting too fancy and instead buy big, high-quality names across sectors, such as Caterpillar, Microsoft, and Corning, rotating capital as charts dictate.
CAT LONG
MSFT LONG
GLW LONG
Micron is likely to double from here.
Despite being a high-beta play in the broader AI and semiconductor boom, Micron is likely to double from its current levels as the market continues its upward trajectory.
MU LONG
NVDA and AVGO pulled back to support.
Nvidia and Broadcom present interesting buying opportunities because their charts have pulled back to their upward-sloping 200-day exponential moving averages.
NVDA LONG
AVGO LONG
Yield curve control drives silver prices higher.
Silver is participating in the debasement trade alongside gold and Bitcoin, benefiting from implicit yield curve control as authorities step in to cap rising interest rates.
SILVER LONG
Perfect scarcity makes Bitcoin a debasement hedge.
Bitcoin benefits from perfect scarcity and inelastic supply. Smart money and whales are accumulating it while weak hands have exited. It is poised for a massive run driven by fiat debasement, structural demand, the four-year cycle, and a positive ISM business cycle.
BTC LONG
HIGH
21:44
Aug 11
Aug 11
WTI
MTDR
RIG
HL 1ST
TLT
▾
HIGH
Massive short squeeze setup in crude oil.
Massive speculative short-position build-up in crude oil (480 million barrels, top 10% historically) is suppressing price. Strategic petroleum reserves are running low globally, and China has pulled back imports but will soon need to return to the market. An eventual unwind of these shorts, alongside supply tightness from Strait of Hormuz disruptions and lost US influence in the Middle East, could spark a sharp rally.
WTI LONG
Energy stocks are cheap and underowned.
Oil and gas companies across the value chain are cheap on a relative basis (7–8x earnings), with solid dividends and strong numbers. Fossil fuel avoidance by many investors is creating a valuation anomaly. The entire energy sector (producers, midstream, service companies, drillers) benefits from looming supply tightness.
MTDR LONG
RIG LONG
SLB LONG
APA LONG
CVX LONG
Precious metals and miners are cheap again.
Gold and silver miners corrected 35–40% earlier this year and have been replenished at much cheaper prices over the last six weeks. Gold around $4,000–4,300 is poised to do well in the second half of 2026. Silver, gold miners, and royalty companies offer attractive value after the correction.
HL LONG
GLD LONG
SLV LONG
AEM LONG
AGI LONG
EQX LONG
FNV LONG
Avoid long-duration US Treasuries.
The US Treasury is losing control of the long end of the yield curve due to heavy issuance and fiscal mismanagement. Bond market participants do not trust the US government for 30-year financing. Rising long-end yields will pressure long-duration bond prices, making 30-year paper unattractive.
TLT AVOID
Commodity supercycle demands hard asset exposure.
Broad commodities are entering a decade-long cycle of hard assets. The US is critically behind on many essential minerals (copper, iron, tungsten, antimony). Investors are making a mistake by not holding a meaningful commodity allocation.
DBC LONG
LyondellBasell pays 5% and is turning around.
LyondellBasell offers a 5% dividend yield and is undergoing a successful turnaround with management changes. It represents an attractive value pick with income and recovery potential.
LYB LONG
Sell Microsoft after long-term gains.
After holding Microsoft for 14–15 years, the firm has been selling across most portfolios. The stock no longer offers compelling forward returns, and investors are blinded by big hyperscaler narratives, not thinking about the next 2–4 years.
MSFT AVOID
Visa and Mastercard look great again.
Visa and Mastercard are starting to look great again as investment opportunities, offering ways to diversify away from the crowd.
V LONG
MA LONG
Sell large-cap semiconductor stocks now.
Big-name semiconductors are feast-or-famine businesses that tend to give back all gains after big runs. The current level is a time to sell; those who don't will pay the price.
SOXX AVOID
Bristol-Myers is an attractive drug holding.
Bristol-Myers Squibb is a pharmaceutical holding the firm owns, presumably offering value or a catalyst on the drug side.
BMY LONG
Uranium supply gap makes it a top pick.
The US is extremely dependent on foreign uranium, consuming ~50M lbs annually while producing only ~2.5M lbs. Uranium is the top critical mineral the US desperately needs more of, setting up a strong demand-supply imbalance.
URA LONG
Prefer short-term Treasuries over long bonds.
The firm has not owned long-duration US Treasuries for years and remains short duration. Short-end yields are decent, state-tax-free, and offer better risk/reward as the Treasury loses control of the long end amid fiscal mistrust. Staying short avoids duration risk from rising long-end yields.
SHY LONG
HIGH
21:30
Aug 10
Aug 10
COPPER 1ST
CGNT
Colombia 1ST
LBCMF
▾
HIGH
Copper supercycle, massive supply deficit ahead.
A copper supercycle is already underway, driven by a severe supply deficit. Old mines are depleting, grades are declining, and new discoveries are scarce. At the same time, demand is surging from electrification, AI data centers, defense spending, and grid upgrades. The physical market is tightening faster than the paper market suggests, and China's control over smelting adds strategic squeeze. The speaker sees this as a multi-year bull case for copper prices.
COPPER LONG
Copper Giant undervalued, near-term catalysts.
Copper Giant (CGNT) is significantly undervalued relative to its resource and strategic position. The Mocoa deposit holds over 1 billion tons of near-surface copper in a mining-friendly jurisdiction. A new pro-mining Colombian government, a $31 million strategic financing with Daenerius Metals, an offtake agreement with Trafigura, and a two-year insider lockup signal strong confidence. An upcoming Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) will provide a net present value, acting as a major catalyst for re-rating the stock.
CGNT LONG
LBCMF LONG
Colombia to become hottest mining jurisdiction.
Colombia is poised to become the world's hottest new mining region within the next few years. The newly elected government is strongly pro-mining and pro-business, with a singular focus on economy and security. Colombia has been underexplored for decades despite sharing the same rich geology as Peru and Chile, and it offers superior infrastructure and lower elevation benefits. The alignment with the United States as a strategic ally further enhances the investment case.
Colombia LONG
HIGH
19:51
Aug 10
Aug 10
SPY
SMH 1ST
GLD FLIP
GDX 1ST
TLT 1ST
▾
HIGH
S&P 500 pullback 4-7% imminent
The S&P 500 has completed a wave-five thrust out of a triangle pattern but market breadth on this thrust is weak relative to price, and bullish sentiment has surged. This suggests the rally is nearing an end and a 4–7% pullback is developing in coming weeks.
SPY AVOID
Sell semiconductors, SMH to break 503 low
Bearish view on SMH as a retracement rally in a larger downtrend; even “sell into strength” is not an explicit short/puts/borrowed-stock trade.
SMH AVOID
Buy gold on pullbacks, target $4500-$4700
Gold is in a corrective wave-four retracement, not yet the start of the move above $6,000. A near-term high is approaching around $4,350–$4,400, after which a pullback will provide a buying opportunity for the next leg toward $4,575–$4,750. Longer-term, after a C-wave below $3,945, gold will make new all-time highs.
GLD LONG
Buy GDX on pullbacks, target 102-117
GDX formed a falling wedge and displayed a large positive RSI divergence near the $70 low. His call from $72–80 targets $88–91 and potentially $102, with a chance of new all-time highs above $117 if gold reaches higher targets. A near-term pullback is likely, and he would buy gold stocks on any dip over the next 1–2 weeks.
GDX LONG
Short Treasuries, yields to rise above 5%
Bearish/downside view on long-duration Treasuries as yields rise; no explicit short, puts, or actionable short trade.
TLT AVOID
HIGH
02:42
Aug 09
Aug 09
GDX 1ST
GLD FLIP
IGV 1ST
COPPER
SPY FLIP
▾
HIGH
Gold breakout with asymmetric upside setup
Gold and gold miners are breaking out from bearish trends with strong support and asymmetric upside potential. The dollar's sell-off is helping, and gold has made eight consecutive higher lows. The GDX chart shows a textbook asymmetric setup with heavy support at 75.32 and small resistance levels overhead, while gold's next major resistance is at 4572. Kevin is buying both gold and gold miners.
GDX LONG
GLD LONG
Software ETF IGV has bullish technicals
The software ETF IGV has a stronger algorithmic signal than semiconductors, with major support levels at 98.54 and 95.53 and no significant overhead resistance. It may benefit from mean reversion or rotation out of overbought semis. Kevin has been long IGV and remains bullish.
IGV LONG
Copper rally to persist with gold
Copper has performed very well, supported by supply constraints and demand from data centers and electrification. Kevin has been consistently long copper and expects it to continue doing well alongside gold.
COPPER LONG
SPY supported; buy dips for uptrend
The S&P 500 ETF SPY has heavy support at 751.32, an increasing momentum score, and an RSI of 63 (not overbought). With the market rally broadening and strong earnings, Kevin would be a buyer on dips and remains long SPY in retirement accounts.
SPY LONG
HIGH
23:00
Aug 07
Aug 07
SMH FLIP
SPY
TLT
XLF
XLV
▾
HIGH
Buy semiconductors on AI-driven dips
Semiconductors are a core AI beneficiary; pullbacks driven by AI disruption fears have historically provided good buying opportunities, and the sector remains attractive on dips.
SMH LONG
Roaring 2020s push S&P 500 higher
The roaring 2020s scenario remains intact, supported by a resilient economy, resilient consumers, strong capital spending, and the AI revolution. Record earnings momentum (FIMO) and expanding productivity will drive the S&P 500 to 8,250 by the end of the year and 10,000 by the end of the decade.
SPY LONG
Buy long-term Treasuries at 5% yield
Long-term U.S. Treasury yields are normalizing in a 4-5% range, and yields spiking toward 5% have historically attracted strong buyer interest, providing a buying opportunity for bond investors.
TLT WATCH
AI spending benefits financials sector
Financials are likely to benefit significantly from the surge in AI-related capital spending and broad economic growth, supporting an overweight positioning.
XLF LONG
AI boosts healthcare productivity and profits
Healthcare productivity is poor and AI can make a big difference, making the sector attractive; the firm recently added healthcare exposure.
XLV LONG
AI spending drives industrials sector growth
Industrials stand to gain from the wave of AI-driven capex and infrastructure buildout, warranting an overweight allocation.
XLI LONG
HIGH
20:39
Aug 07
Aug 07
GLD
SILVER
STLLR Gold
▾
HIGH
Bullish gold after descending top breakout.
Gold broke out above a descending top pattern from a base at $4,000, signaling a major shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish. The correction from the all-time high above $5,500 is likely over, with major support at $4,200 and next resistance at $4,400. He is tactically bullish short-term, though entry at current levels is tricky.
GLD LONG
Silver dip buy if support holds.
Silver also rallied but faces resistance at $63.30. If it retraces to support between $60.30 and $61 and holds, it would offer a buying opportunity on the dip. However, caution is warranted and he wants to see it hold that support before adding.
SILVER WATCH
STLLR Gold leveraged to rising gold prices.
STLLR Gold controls three major undeveloped Canadian gold projects. The Tower project alone could be worth $2.5 billion after tax at a $3,200 gold assumption, and its value increases with higher gold prices. The Colac project spans a large greenstone district, and the Holler Tailings cleanup could deliver near-term cash flow. With over 16 million ounces drilled, STLLR offers significant gold leverage.
STLLR Gold LONG
HIGH
18:10
Aug 07
Aug 07
FXY 1ST
TLT
XLE 1ST
GLD FLIP
WTI 1ST
▾
HIGH
Yen to strengthen as intervention fails.
The yen is expected to strengthen as the unprecedented US intervention to buy yen will likely fail because the yen carry trade remains profitable and fundamentals (interest rate differentials, demographics, oil imports) favor a weaker yen. When the intervention fails and the yen retraces its gains, a real panic will occur, forcing the yen higher as Japan cannot aggressively raise rates without making its banking system insolvent. Long yen after a dip.
FXY LONG
Buy Treasuries for flight to safety.
In phase two of the reverse carry trade, deleveraging will trigger a flight to safety, money will flow into US Treasuries, and yields will drop. While Treasuries have been a hated asset class and performed poorly for years, the contrarian trade is to allocate to duration for risk‑aversion. Long Treasuries as a risk‑off play.
TLT LONG
Bullish oil and energy on supply risks.
Upside surprises in oil are more likely than not because the Iran war is not ending quickly, there is a risk of Iran bombing its own oil fields to inflict economic pain on the US, and ongoing geopolitical tensions create constant supply‑shock risk. Oil could spike higher, providing positive tail risk. Bullish on oil and energy stocks.
XLE LONG
WTI LONG
Go long gold as safe haven.
Gold corrected, momentum traders were shaken out, and now gold behaves like a risk‑off asset again, rallying amid Japan carry‑trade concerns and geopolitical risks. Long gold as a safe haven for the reverse carry trade scenario.
GLD LONG
Avoid tech and S&P on regulation.
Technology, especially AI, is going to become one of the most regulated sectors after a likely scary AI incident in the next six months. Heavy regulation will hurt tech stock returns. The S&P 500 is essentially a tech/AI index, so investors should avoid both the tech sector and the S&P 500.
XLK AVOID
SPY AVOID
Rotate to small caps and international.
The best way to beat the S&P 500, which is heavily weighted toward tech and at risk from regulation, is to rotate into small‑cap stocks or international equities, both of which have been outperforming and offer non‑tech exposure.
IWM LONG
ACWX LONG
HIGH
00:35
Aug 07
Aug 07
FXY
SPY
TLT 1ST
▾
MED
Yen weakening despite intervention.
The monetary cycle mismatch between the Bank of Japan and other central banks is causing a yen squeeze that reverses the carry trade. If the Fed cuts rates, the narrowing interest rate differential is yen-supportive and could accelerate the reverse carry trade, leading to further deleveraging and market instability. The unwind is difficult to contain and may cause sharp equity selloffs.
FXY SHORT
Yen carry trade unwind accelerating.
The monetary cycle mismatch between the Bank of Japan and other central banks is causing a yen squeeze that reverses the carry trade. If the Fed cuts rates, the narrowing interest rate differential is yen-supportive and could accelerate the reverse carry trade, leading to further deleveraging and market instability. The unwind is difficult to contain and may cause sharp equity selloffs.
SPY WATCH
Japan selling Treasuries crashes US markets.
Japan is the largest holder of US Treasuries. To shore up the yen, Japan will need to sell US debt and buy yen, which will cause US bond prices to fall and the stock market to crash. Even if Japan does not tighten enough, a yen crash will crash the Japanese bond market, hurting US bonds. Either scenario is bearish for US Treasuries and equities.
TLT SHORT
MED
20:28
Aug 06
Aug 06
SMH
XLK 1ST
WTI FLIP
GLD
TLT
▾
HIGH
Semiconductors poised for explosive catch-up rally
Semiconductors and tech sector are lagging due to recent volatility and investor nervousness after AI pullback, but once the NASDAQ breaks out to all-time highs, they could see a massive catch-up rally. Semiconductors could move 30-50% as the last euphoric wave sucks in retail money. Short covering has already started.
SMH LONG
XLK LONG
Oil heading to $100 per barrel
Oil has completed an ABC correction that is a bullish cleansing event. Fibonacci extensions and the ongoing Iran/Israel war point to oil moving to $100 per barrel. Higher oil will keep inflation and rates elevated.
WTI LONG
Precious metals in bear market, avoid
Gold, silver, and miners are in a technical bear market, with long-term moving averages pointing down, a series of lower highs and lower lows, and overall bearish price action. The current bounce is likely a bear market trap and should be avoided until a true trend reversal confirms.
GLD AVOID
SILVER AVOID
GDX AVOID
Long bonds face 50% downside risk
Long-dated Treasury bonds (TLT) are set to struggle as yields on the 5-, 10-, and 30-year are pointing towards 8%. Higher oil prices will push yields even higher, and TLT could fall from around $82 to $40, a 50% haircut. Bonds should be avoided or shorted.
TLT AVOID
US Dollar in confirmed bull market
The US Dollar Index is in a bull market, breaking above key highs with the long-term moving average sloping upward, making a series of higher highs and higher lows. This dollar strength is a headwind for precious metals.
DXY LONG
Cybersecurity ETF is overbought and crowded
The cybersecurity sector ETF (HACK) has had three explosive surges, huge volume, and signs of exhaustion. It is overcrowded and emotional, usually a precursor to a sharp crack and bearish reversal pattern. It is a crowded trade near a turning point.
HACK AVOID
Broad stock indices breaking to new highs
The S&P 500 and NASDAQ have put in a cycle low, formed bullish bull flag patterns, and are pointing to much higher prices. Equal-weighted and small/micro-cap indices are also breaking to all-time highs, confirming a broad market rally. The S&P 500 target is approximately 8,500-8,555, and the NASDAQ has an 18% upside potential. This could lead to a euphoric phase sucking in more investors.
QQQ LONG
SPY LONG
HIGH
17:13
Aug 06
Aug 06
JGBUX
TLT
FXY
XLF
▾
HIGH
Japanese yields will fall, buy JGBs.
Japanese government bond yields are likely to fall because yields follow inflation, and Japan's inflation rate is only 1.6%, well below the 2% target. The low inflation is driven by anemic money supply growth of 2.2%, which will eventually pull yields lower, contrary to the recent spike in Japanese long-term rates.
JGBUX LONG
Avoid US long bonds, yields rising.
US long-term bond yields will keep rising because the money supply (Divisia M4) is accelerating rapidly, the war on Iran is creating risk and uncertainty, and the US fiscal deficit remains out of control. Bond vigilantes are returning, and the 10-year yield already exceeds Treasury Secretary Bessent's red line of 4.5%. Investors should not be long long-duration bonds because rising yields mean falling prices.
TLT AVOID
Yen weakness to persist on fundamentals.
The Japanese yen is likely to weaken further because of fundamental factors: Japan's money supply growth is too anemic at 2.2% (should be ~6% to hit the 2% inflation target), which caps nominal GDP and leads to low inflation, low interest rates, low economic growth, and a weak currency. Additionally, the prime minister's plans to increase military spending and expand the deficit add political and fiscal risk that further undermines the yen. The US-led intervention is just a dead-cat bounce and introduces a big-player element that will create more volatility but won't reverse the fundamental downtrend.
FXY SHORT
Stay long US financial stocks.
US financial stocks and banks are attractive based on recent history; bank profits have soared. Higher profits increase bank capital, giving them more capacity to lend, and ongoing deregulation is easing capital requirements, providing further tailwinds for the sector.
XLF LONG
HIGH
23:31
Aug 05
Aug 05
GDX
TLT
SPCX
TSLA
SMH
▾
HIGH
Gold and miners as reflation hedge.
Gold and gold miners are part of the reflation trade and serve as a hedge against rising rates and a potential tech fallout; real assets will outperform overvalued financial assets.
GDX LONG
GLD LONG
Short bonds on rising rates.
Rising interest rates and sticky inflation make shorting bonds attractive; the reflation environment will push bond yields higher and prices lower.
TLT SHORT
Overvalued IPO built to fail.
SpaceX is wildly overvalued with a $1.4T market cap on $32B annualized revenue, massive cash burn from AI spending, no profitability in sight, and a float set to increase 5x. The IPO is built to fail, and the stock is destined to get cut in half.
SPCX SHORT
Overvalued, best short in history.
Tesla is overvalued and, together with SpaceX, represents one of the best shorts at scale in the history of capital markets. He is short from 475.
TSLA SHORT
Cyclical overbuild, value destruction ahead.
Semiconductor stocks trade like shipping stocks—capital-intensive cyclical companies where current high margins and low PEs are unsustainable. Massive capex overbuild and Chinese competition will lead to value destruction.
SMH SHORT
Energy underowned, multi-year home run.
Energy stocks are a multi-year home run trade, up 30% YTD despite pullbacks, still only 3% of the S&P 500, underowned relative to tech, and set to benefit from reflation and supply constraints.
XLE LONG
Bulk shipping attractive supply-demand.
Bulk shipping is attractive due to strong demand, supply constraints, and high day rates that are generating enormous cash flows; the sector trades at depressed valuations similar to energy.
Shipping stocks LONG
Short CoreWeave as overvalued tech.
CoreWeave is an overvalued tech name and a short position used as a hedge against the AI trade unwind; part of the 'garbage' tech stocks that will decline sharply.
CoreWeave SHORT
Long financials in rotation from tech.
Financials are part of the non-tech value rotation that will outperform when the tech bubble bursts; owning them alongside shorts in tech yields strong returns.
XLF LONG
Long healthcare in rotation from tech.
Healthcare is a defensive non-tech sector that will benefit from a rotation out of overvalued technology; a key long in the pair trade against tech shorts.
XLV LONG
Copper as reflation commodity.
Copper is a reflation commodity play that will benefit alongside gold and energy from the long-term underinvestment in real assets and the energy transition.
COPPER LONG
Tech bubble, misallocation of capital.
Technology stocks broadly are in a bubble driven by AI hype, misallocation of capital, rising bond yields, and excessive speculation. Investors should run from tech stocks.
XLK SHORT
HIGH
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