Trita Parsi

Parsi highlights that the war is unpopular (1/5 support) and predicts political chaos: "If the Democrats take over the Senate and the House [in Nov 2026], you are looking at an impeachment scenario." The combination of kinetic war in the Middle East and a constitutional crisis/impeachment in the US creates a "peak uncertainty" environment. Gold historically outperforms during periods of dual geopolitical and domestic political instability. LONG. Gold acts as the ultimate hedge against the "Impeachment + War" scenario. A swift US victory or regime collapse would reduce the "fear trade" appeal.

Parsi states Iran's survival strategy is "to inflict as much cost as possible on the United States primarily but also in oil markets, regional states." Iran knows it cannot win a conventional war. To force a ceasefire, they must make the economic pain unbearable for the West. This implies asymmetric attacks on the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi infrastructure, or other energy chokepoints to spike crude prices. LONG. Geopolitical risk premium is set to explode if Iran executes this "cost infliction" strategy. Rapid regime collapse (Fesharaki's thesis) could lead to a quick capitulation and removal of the war premium.

Parsi states Iran's survival strategy is "to inflict as much cost as possible on the United States primarily but also in oil markets, regional states." Iran knows it cannot win a conventional war. To force a ceasefire, they must make the economic pain unbearable for the West. This implies asymmetric attacks on the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi infrastructure, or other energy chokepoints to spike crude prices. LONG. Geopolitical risk premium is set to explode if Iran executes this "cost infliction" strategy. Rapid regime collapse (Fesharaki's thesis) could lead to a quick capitulation and removal of the war premium.