Biggest Market Shift Now: ‘You’re Making A Mistake’ Ignoring These Assets | Ted Oakley

Summary

Ted Oakley, Founder of Oxbow Advisors, outlines a market regime favoring hard assets and energy, while urging caution on long-duration bonds and over-owned technology. He sees massive short-squeeze potential in crude oil, deep value in energy equities and precious metals miners, and critical supply deficits in uranium and broad commodities. Long-term Treasury bonds, large-cap semiconductors, and Microsoft are identified as sells or avoids, with selective value picks like LyondellBasell, Bristol-Myers, and Visa/Mastercard offering alternatives.

• Crude oil faces one of the largest speculative short positions ever, with reserve drawdowns and geopolitical risks raising the chance of a sharp reversal.
• Oil and gas equities across the entire value chain trade at 7-8x earnings and are under-owned due to ESG avoidance.
• After a 35-40% correction, precious metals and miners (gold, silver, Hecla, Franco Nevada, Agnico Eagle, etc.) have been re-accumulated at cheaper levels.
• Long-duration Treasuries are unattractive due to fiscal mistrust and loss of Treasury control; short-end paper is preferred.
• Large-cap semiconductors are in a feast-or-famine cycle and should be sold; Microsoft was reduced significantly.
• Uranium is the top critical mineral the US urgently needs, creating a strong demand-supply imbalance.
• Broad commodity exposure is essential for the next decade as a hard-asset cycle unfolds.
• Select value names mentioned include LyondellBasell (5% yield, turnaround), Bristol-Myers Squibb, Visa, and Mastercard.