AI infrastructure build-out is causing a demand shock that is already visible in rising capital investment and specifically in higher chip prices, presenting a near-term opportunity as prices increase before supply responds.
The Fed's balance sheet policy should be reformed. In normal times, the Fed should be a price taker, not a price maker, and he is inclined to move toward a regime that reduces the Fed's large holdings of long-term Treasuries and MBS. This implies less artificial demand, potentially pushing long-term yields higher over time.