Fed Rate Hike Shock: Why Markets Suddenly Fear September
Спикеры
David Lin
— Основатель и ведущий, The David Lin Report / экс-ведущий, Kitco News
Colin Martin
— Head of Fixed Income Strategy, Charles Schwab
Kevin Warsh
— Председатель ФРС
Scott Bessent
— Министр финансов
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Worsh's hawkish Jackson Hole remarks raised September rate-hike expectations, triggering a selloff in stocks, gold, and Bitcoin while Treasury yields climbed. Colin Martin of Charles Schwab says the Fed can still hold unless incoming inflation or labor data surprises. Worsh highlights a resilient US economy, strong S&P 500 profits, and AI-driven capex as major growth forces, while sponsor Stellar Gold is pitched as a gold leverage idea. Scott Bessent adds that US reindustrialization and growth are healing the economy, with Iran escalation posing an oil risk.
- Worsh's Jackson Hole speech is viewed as hawkish and signals a possible September rate hike.
- CME FedWatch shows a 66% probability for a 25bp September rate hike.
- S&P 500 sold off, gold and Bitcoin dropped about 3%, and Treasury yields climbed.
- Colin Martin expects the Fed to stay on hold unless August CPI or labor data surprises.
- Worsh says financial conditions are not restrictive and S&P 500 profits grew over 20%.
- Worsh highlights AI infrastructure spending as a major growth and capex driver.
- Sponsored segment highlights Stellar Gold's Canadian gold projects and leverage.
- Bessent cites US reindustrialization and private sector job growth; Iran escalation is an oil risk.
Идеи
September rate hike risk lifts Treasury yields
David Lin notes that Worsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech was interpreted as practically signaling a September rate hike, the CME FedWatch probability for a 25bp September hike jumped to 66%, and Treasury yields climbed as markets priced in higher rates. He adds that the CME FedWatch tool has historically been accurate near FOMC events.
Fed likely holds unless data surprises
Colin Martin says the Fed is likely to remain on hold at the September FOMC because officials who want to hike have not yet gotten a specific reason; that could change if August CPI comes in hot or the labor market is stronger than expected.
Strong economy and profits support US equities
Worsh says broad financial conditions are not restrictive, real consumer spending and private domestic final purchases are healthy, the economy has strengthened, Main Street and Wall Street are resilient, and S&P 500 profits grew more than 20% over the past year with elevated margins. This supports US equities.
AI infrastructure buildout is driving durable growth
Worsh describes AI as a hinge point in history with faster-than-expected progress, potential for substantially higher growth, expanding pools of capital into AI-related infrastructure, 500% annualized token sales growth at two leading labs, and more than half of capex growth attributed to the AI buildout. He sees a super-Moore's-law dynamic accelerating innovation.
Stellar Gold offers leveraged gold exposure
Stellar Gold is presented as a long-term gold leverage story with three major Canadian projects; Tower alone could be worth $2.5 billion after tax at a $3,200 gold price assumption, with upside if gold prices rise, and over 16 million ounces already drilled across projects.
Далее
This The David Lin Report video, published September 01, 2026, features David Lin, Colin Martin, Kevin Warsh discussing US Treasury yields, US short-term interest rates, SPY, AIQ, Stellar Gold. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: David Lin, Colin Martin, Kevin Warsh · Tickers: US Treasury yields, US short-term interest rates, SPY, AIQ, Stellar Gold