‘Ends In A Great Depression’: Where Stocks, Gold Go In Final Melt-Up | Gareth Soloway
Спикеры
Gareth Soloway
— Президент Verified Investing
David Lin
— Основатель и ведущий, The David Lin Report / экс-ведущий, Kitco News
Gareth Soloway lays out a near-term bullish but late-cycle market view, with the S&P 500 rallying into 8,100-8,200 by year-end before serious trouble in 2027. He is bullish on gold into $13,000 by 2029-2031 and near-term bullish on Bitcoin and XRP, but he sees semiconductor/AI names as eventual shorts after a bounce. He also warns that a 10-year Treasury yield above 5% would be a danger threshold as debt and bond-market pressures build.
- S&P 500 expected to rally to 8,100-8,200 by year-end, then face a major drawdown in 2027.
- Fed is expected to hold rates steady this year and cut in 2027 as labor weakens.
- Gold is bullish on breakouts and pullbacks with a long-term target of $13,000 by 2029-2031.
- Bitcoin is near-term bullish, potentially reaching $70,000-$75,000 on crypto-clarity politics.
- XRP is held for a wedge breakout setup.
- Semiconductor/AI names may bounce more before Gareth plans to short Micron, SanDisk, and SK hynix.
- 10-year Treasury yield above 5% is flagged as a key risk threshold.
- Debt and AI capex are viewed as unsustainable longer-term drivers.
Идеи
S&P 500 hits 8,100-8,200 by year-end.
Near-term charts point higher; weak retail sales, weakening jobs and stable-but-elevated inflation reduce Fed rate-hike odds, supporting risk assets. He targets S&P 500 around 8,100-8,200 by year-end, then expects serious trouble in early 2027.
KOSPI and semiconductors rally on Fed cuts.
Weakening economic data shifted Fed expectations from hikes to stationary policy and potential cuts in 2027, which means cheaper money and risk-on flows, leading KOSPI/South Korean stocks and semiconductors back to rallying.
Watch 10-year yield above 5%.
He says the key danger level is above 5% on the 10-year Treasury yield; at that point higher rates become truly scary because mortgage/housing pressure and interest costs on $40 trillion debt can stress the whole economy, while the bond market rather than the Fed takes control.
Buy gold pullbacks; target $13,000 by 2029-2031.
Gold has broken out of a large wedge, is making higher lows and higher highs, and should be bought on pullbacks toward $3,900-$4,000. Debt and macro negatives support gold, and he calculates a $13,000 target by 2029-2031.
Bitcoin near-term rally to $70,000-$75,000.
Bitcoin's breakout has been weak but it remains above the trend line, giving a near-term bullish bias. He expects the president to push crypto clarity legislation before the midterms to win crypto voters, which could produce a 10-15% rally toward $70,000-$75,000, maybe $80,000. He also owns IBIT for exposure.
XRP wedge breakout; holds for upside.
He holds XRP because the chart shows a major wedge pattern breakout against the dollar, and he is looking for a catalyst; it is one of his current crypto positions.
Wait for semi retracements, then short.
He still sees more near-term upside in semiconductor names, but is waiting for Micron and SanDisk to retrace 61.8% Fibonacci of their recent roughly 40% falls, and is watching SK hynix for a larger bounce, before loading shorts in the AI/semiconductor space.
Далее
This The David Lin Report video, published August 14, 2026, features Gareth Soloway discussing SPY, EWY, SMH, 10-Year Treasury Yield, GLD, BTC, IBIT, XRP, MU, SNDK, 000660.KS. 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Gareth Soloway · Tickers: SPY, EWY, SMH, 10-Year Treasury Yield, GLD, BTC, IBIT, XRP, MU, SNDK, 000660.KS