Figure Markets Is Catching NVIDIA and MICRON
Speakers
Martin
— Analyst, Milk Road
John Gillen
— Co-Host, Milk Road Macro
Summary
Martin, a Milk Road analyst, breaks down Figure Markets' Q2 earnings and argues Wall Street still misunderstands the company. The core case is that Figure is evolving from a specialty HELOC lender into a blockchain-powered marketplace where third-party partners originate the majority of loan volume. Falling take rates are not a problem because adjusted EBITDA is growing faster than revenue, and on-chain July data supports continued over-100% growth. Martin remains bullish and sees a repricing toward $50 from around $30.
- Figure started as a tech-enabled HELOC lender using AI and blockchain to cut origination costs roughly 90% and reduce loan times to 5-7 days.
- Q2 revenue grew 95% year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA grew 126% year-over-year, showing operating leverage.
- Figure Connect partners now originate 65% of consumer loan volume, up from 35%, with partner count rising from 144 to 498.
- Martin argues the falling take rate reflects a mix shift to higher-margin third-party volume, not weakness.
- Figure's Rule of 40 score is near 150-168, ahead of most S&P 500 companies except Nvidia and Micron.
- July on-chain data supports continued over-100% year-over-year growth and management's Q3 guidance.
- Martin is holding his Figure position, sees a roughly $50 Wall Street median target from about $30, and may trim if valuation becomes stretched.
Ideas
Figure Markets is misunderstood, will reprice higher.
Figure Markets is misunderstood by Wall Street as a specialty HELOC lender. Its Q2 results show revenue growing 95% year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA growing 126% year-over-year, meaning profits are growing faster than revenue despite a falling take rate. Third-party Figure Connect origination is scaling rapidly: Figure Connect now accounts for 65% of consumer loan volume, up from 35%, with partner count rising from 144 to 498. This turns Figure into a blockchain-powered marketplace/exchange with better unit economics, operating leverage, and a Rule-of-40 score near 150-168, ahead of most S&P 500 companies except Nvidia and Micron. July on-chain data supports continued over-100% growth and Q3 guidance. Martin expects Wall Street to revise forecasts higher and the stock, around $30, to reprice toward the roughly $50 Wall Street median target.
Up Next
This Milk Road Macro video, published August 14, 2026, features Martin discussing FIGR. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.