Gareth Soloway 6.6 12 ideas

Said, "I have a small short position up here on Micron" and can "see something very similar to what happened on Oracle occurring on Micron." Views Micron's rally as a parabolic, FOMO-driven move identical to prior bubbles. Fundamental view is that memory storage is not proprietary and the current shortage will abate, causing prices and stock prices to "collapse." SHORT to capitalize on the expected bursting of a speculative bubble in memory stocks, anticipating a 50%+ downside. The memory shortage is more structural and prolonged than anticipated, leading to sustained higher earnings and justifying the current price.

Stated "the highs are in on oil at $120" and expects "a draw down in the next 3 to six months back to $70 a barrel." Believes geopolitical pressure (Iran conflict) will abate as the U.S. has a political incentive to lower oil-induced inflation ahead of midterm elections. Also anticipates U.S. economic weakness. SHORT because the spike to $120 is seen as a panic-driven peak, and a combination of political resolution and economic slowing should catalyze a significant mean reversion. The Iran conflict escalates or spreads, keeping supply fears elevated and preventing the predicted drawdown.

Explicitly said, "I think gold by the end of this year is back to $3,500 per ounce." Identifies a bearish chart pattern (inside bar bearish flag) and argues gold has lost its "safe haven" status in the near term, becoming an emotional "get rich quick" asset filled with "weak hands" who will sell on fear. SHORT because the chart signals breakdown and the shift in market psychology (from safe-haven to speculative asset) necessitates a flush-out of weak holders to much lower prices. A severe, sustained financial crisis triggers a sudden rush back to traditional safe havens, overriding the current technical and behavioral setup.

Stated "I think silver is going to be back to about $50 to $54 per ounce by year end." Points to a clear bear flag pattern on the chart and groups it with gold as having become an emotionally-driven speculative asset rather than a stable store of value. SHORT for the same core reasons as gold: technical breakdown and the need to wash out speculative, weak-handed buyers. A sustained industrial demand surge coupled with supply constraints reverses the technical breakdown.

Said, "I still think it's going to go higher... towards that 80 to 84,000 level" and that he is "still long Bitcoin looking for 80-85K." Expects a near-term "risk-on" bounce in markets, propelled by a pullback in oil prices, which will benefit Bitcoin as a risk asset. It has also been the best-performing major asset over the past month, showing relative strength. LONG as a tactical trade to capitalize on a short-term relief rally in risk assets. The expected oil pullback does not materialize or is delayed, stifling the "risk-on" bounce. A breakdown below $60,000 would invalidate the near-term bullish case.

States he is "net bearish on the S&P" and targets "the low on this market will be somewhere in this 5500 to 5600 level." Points to a concerning rounded top distribution pattern (similar to 2008), underlying economic weakness (labor, consumer), stagflationary pressures, and stress in private credit markets. SHORT because the confluence of technical deterioration, macroeconomic slowdown (stagflation), and credit market stress suggests a significant correction is likely. The Federal Reserve intervenes more aggressively than expected with stimulus, or the economic data meaningfully improves, preventing the downturn.

In a potential "Japan-style" 20-year sideways market, capital appreciation will be non-existent. Soloway specifically names Microsoft as a solid company that pays a dividend. When stock prices stagnate for decades, dividends become the *only* source of real return and the only hedge against inflation. Investors must shift from "growth" to "yield + quality." Long high-quality dividend payers like MSFT to preserve purchasing power over a multi-decade stagnation period. Tech valuations compress further, reducing the principal investment despite the dividend yield.

Silver is currently in a "bear flag" formation. Soloway identifies the $50–$54 range (underlying spot price) as the "epic level to buy." The chart suggests a retest of the breakout levels from 1980 and 2011 is necessary before the next major bull run. Buying now is catching a falling knife; buying at historical support is high-probability. Do not buy yet. Set limit orders to buy heavily if/when Silver drops to the $50–$54 range. Silver could reverse early and never hit the "epic" buy zone, causing a missed opportunity.

Soloway identifies a "parallel channel" on the S&P 500 chart connecting lows from COVID and 2022. The index recently tagged the top of this channel and is now putting in lower highs and lower lows. Technical rejection at the top of a long-term channel typically leads to a mean reversion to the bottom of the channel. Additionally, the correlation shift (bad economic news = stocks down) removes the "Fed Put" safety net. Short the index targeting a move to 6,100 (approx. 10% drop) by mid-year, with a secondary target of 5,600. A sudden reversal in Fed policy or a de-escalation in geopolitical tensions could spark a squeeze.

Bitcoin sentiment is at extreme lows (Fear & Greed index below 10), and the chart shows an "inside bar" bullish pattern. Soloway expects a regulatory bill to pass soon, acting as a catalyst. When sentiment is universally bearish but price holds support, it often signals a "washout" is complete. A relief rally is probable to close the divergence gap between crypto and equities before the long-term downtrend resumes. Long Bitcoin (via ETF) for a swing trade targeting $80,000–$85,000 on the underlying asset (approx. 20-30% upside). Breaking below $60,000 (underlying) invalidates the bullish inside bar pattern.

US Shale production is reaching the end of its "boom" phase (production drops off after 2 years), and geopolitical tensions with Iran are escalating. Supply constraints (shale depletion) combined with war risk premiums create a floor for oil prices. Even in a recession, supply shocks could drive oil to $100/barrel. Long Oil on pullbacks, using $55/barrel (underlying WTI) as the critical "line in the sand" support level. A deep global recession could crush demand faster than supply constricts.

Soloway explicitly states the Oracle (ORCL) chart is "almost identical" to the Bitcoin chart and that software stocks are "due for a relief rally." Since he forecasts a 20-30% bounce in Bitcoin based on technicals, the correlated asset (Oracle/Software) should experience a similar sympathy rally. Long Oracle as a tactical swing trade to capture the sector rotation into software. If the broad market (S&P 500) sells off aggressively, high-beta software stocks may get dragged down despite the specific setup.