Calls
11
#1135
Alpha Score 17.0
Thomas Hayes
Co-founder, Crypto Is Macro
Win Rate
36.4%
return
-3.8%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Jun 03
$79.28
+9.3%
Diageo generates $3B free cash flow, has new management (Dave from Tesco) cutting costs and selling non-core assets, with double-digit growth in every region except the US (tequila issue being fixed via pre-made drinks). It is a defensive premiumization play where higher-margin, lower-volume drinking is the trend, and the stock will return to glory.
Packaged Foods
Long
Jun 03
$81.83
+1.9%
Defensive sectors (staples, healthcare, utilities) are at a record low weight in the S&P 500 (16% vs historical 35%), similar to the 2000 tech peak. This extreme underownership sets up for mean reversion as the Iran war resolves and the AI trade cools, driving money into out-of-favor defensives.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Aug 12
$103.36
+2.9%
Disney is a cheap long-term consumer discretionary play. The parks are packed, the new CEO comes from the high-ROIC experiences side, streaming is now free-cash-flow positive, ESPN is valuable, box office is strong, and the company is monetizing its IP library through parks and cruise ships.
Streaming
Long
Aug 12
$168.58
-1.9%
Consumer confidence is starting to turn up from multi-decade or all-time lows, unemployment is still only 4%, and energy prices are rangebound. Defensive areas such as consumer staples and healthcare are washed out, while consumer discretionary is at roughly 10-year relative lows versus the S&P 500 and has a very low bar. He recommends a barbell of defensive consumer and offensive consumer exposure.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Aug 12
$117.89
-4.2%
Consumer confidence is starting to turn up from multi-decade or all-time lows, unemployment is still only 4%, and energy prices are rangebound. Defensive areas such as consumer staples and healthcare are washed out, while consumer discretionary is at roughly 10-year relative lows versus the S&P 500 and has a very low bar. He recommends a barbell of defensive consumer and offensive consumer exposure.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Aug 12
$11.42
-8.8%
Dentsply Sirona is a defensive healthcare company and the largest supplier of dental supplies since the late 1800s. The stock was hit by bad management, but management used a large portion of tariff refunds to buy back stock in the hole, signaling they believe the shares are cheap.
MedTech
Long
Jun 03
$57.65
-21.7%
Advanced Auto Parts sold its Canadian business, closed unprofitable stores, and under new CEO is back to growth and margin expansion. With the average car on the road at 14 years, the company is opening 35 stores this year. Hayes targets $150 per share, a triple from the current ~$50-60, based on prior operating margin levels.
Retail & Mobility
Long
Jun 03
$130.82
-16.5%
Alibaba is the cheapest way to play AI globally, holding equity stakes in Chinese AI startups (analogous to Amazon/Alphabet's stakes in Anthropic/SpaceX) that are not yet priced in. It benefits from a weak dollar and emerging market exposure, offering significant optionality at a low valuation.
Retail & Mobility
Long
Jun 03
$83.41
+14.5%
Estee Lauder has recovered from COVID lows (doubled off the bottom) and pulled back after a bad perfume deal. It is now shifting from mall/travel retail to online (TikTok Shop, Amazon), growing double digits there, and executing well again. The stock is starting to recover and is still early in the turnaround.
Personal Care
Long
Jun 03
$23.35
-11.7%
Hormel is a turnaround story with a 65-year dividend growth streak, a 6% yield, and recent earnings showing a return to growth and margin expansion across its protein-centric portfolio. It is out of favor and starting to turn the corner.
Packaged Foods
Long
Jun 03
$85.65
-5.5%
The prudent trade is to buy Treasury bonds (long duration) betting that the Iran war will be resolved, which will lower inflation expectations and allow the Fed to cut rates, causing yields to fall. He takes the other side of the bond vigilantes who are selling.
Bonds & Rates
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Thomas Hayes has 11 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 11 tickers since June 2026. Ranked #1135 on the Buzzberg Alpha leaderboard. Most covered: DEO, XLP, BABA.
