Everything 'Rips Higher' EXCEPT This: Fund Manager Warns After Calling Rally | Thomas Hayes

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  June 03, 2026 at 04:56  |  38:43  |  The David Lin Report
Speakers
Thomas Hayes — Co-founder, Crypto Is Macro

Summary

Thomas Hayes expects the AI trade to cool and the 'everything trade' to rip higher once the Iran war resolves. He recommends rotating into defensive sectors and specific turnaround stocks like Diageo, Hormel, Advanced Auto Parts, and Estee Lauder. He also likes Alibaba as a cheap AI play and warns Intel is heading to $60 short-term. He expects Treasury yields to decline post-resolution.

  • AI trade is crowded and may pause short-term, but long-term still bullish.
  • Iran war resolution will trigger rotation into everything else: defensives, cyclicals, industrials.
  • Defensive sector weight at record low, similar to 2000, offering mean reversion opportunity.
  • Specific picks: Diageo, Hormel, Advanced Auto Parts, Estee Lauder (turnaround stories).
  • Alibaba is the cheapest AI play globally with hidden equity stakes.
  • Intel likely to fall to $60 before recovering to $200.
  • Expects Treasury yields to drop and Fed to cut after war ends.
Trade Ideas
Thomas Hayes Co-founder, Crypto Is Macro 12:37
Intel short-term downside to $60
Intel, after being sold near $96-97 and rallying to $131, is now back around $100 and likely to fall to $60 in the near term before eventually recovering to $200. Government support is fading and the stock faces headwinds.
INTC HIGH
Thomas Hayes Co-founder, Crypto Is Macro 25:09
Long Treasuries on yield decline
The prudent trade is to buy Treasury bonds (long duration) betting that the Iran war will be resolved, which will lower inflation expectations and allow the Fed to cut rates, causing yields to fall. He takes the other side of the bond vigilantes who are selling.
TLT MED
Thomas Hayes Co-founder, Crypto Is Macro 29:55
Record low weight defensive sectors long
Defensive sectors (staples, healthcare, utilities) are at a record low weight in the S&P 500 (16% vs historical 35%), similar to the 2000 tech peak. This extreme underownership sets up for mean reversion as the Iran war resolves and the AI trade cools, driving money into out-of-favor defensives.
XLP HIGH
Thomas Hayes Co-founder, Crypto Is Macro 31:27
Diageo long turnaround premiumization defensive
Diageo generates $3B free cash flow, has new management (Dave from Tesco) cutting costs and selling non-core assets, with double-digit growth in every region except the US (tequila issue being fixed via pre-made drinks). It is a defensive premiumization play where higher-margin, lower-volume drinking is the trend, and the stock will return to glory.
DEO HIGH
Thomas Hayes Co-founder, Crypto Is Macro 32:13
Alibaba long cheapest AI play
Alibaba is the cheapest way to play AI globally, holding equity stakes in Chinese AI startups (analogous to Amazon/Alphabet's stakes in Anthropic/SpaceX) that are not yet priced in. It benefits from a weak dollar and emerging market exposure, offering significant optionality at a low valuation.
BABA HIGH
Thomas Hayes Co-founder, Crypto Is Macro 33:07
Hormel long dividend growth turnaround
Hormel is a turnaround story with a 65-year dividend growth streak, a 6% yield, and recent earnings showing a return to growth and margin expansion across its protein-centric portfolio. It is out of favor and starting to turn the corner.
HRL HIGH
Thomas Hayes Co-founder, Crypto Is Macro 33:29
Advanced Auto Parts long target $150
Advanced Auto Parts sold its Canadian business, closed unprofitable stores, and under new CEO is back to growth and margin expansion. With the average car on the road at 14 years, the company is opening 35 stores this year. Hayes targets $150 per share, a triple from the current ~$50-60, based on prior operating margin levels.
AAP HIGH
Thomas Hayes Co-founder, Crypto Is Macro 34:15
Estee Lauder long online recovery
Estee Lauder has recovered from COVID lows (doubled off the bottom) and pulled back after a bad perfume deal. It is now shifting from mall/travel retail to online (TikTok Shop, Amazon), growing double digits there, and executing well again. The stock is starting to recover and is still early in the turnaround.
EL HIGH
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This The David Lin Report video, published June 03, 2026, features Thomas Hayes discussing INTC, TLT, XLP, DEO, BABA, HRL, AAP, EL. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Thomas Hayes  · Tickers: INTC, TLT, XLP, DEO, BABA, HRL, AAP, EL