Name: Yields Explode, Fed To ‘Make A Big Blunder’ Hiking Into Oil Shock | David Rosenberg
Uploaded: 2026-09-02T18:04:26+00:00
Duration: 3941 s

Speakers

David Rosenberg — President, Rosenberg Research

Summary

David Rosenberg argues the Fed under new Chair Worsh is making a policy mistake by signaling multiple hikes into a weak economy and oil shock, and that this repricing, not inflation, has pushed Treasury yields higher. He recommends avoiding bond duration and de-risking equities while favoring hard assets, short-duration and emerging-market fixed income, oil, and his new ROSY ETF, and shorting the US dollar. He also sees a potential tactical homebuilder opportunity once 10-year yields peak, with the November 4 Treasury refunding as a key catalyst.

Rosenberg sees a Fed policy mistake and multiple rate hikes now being priced in.
The 10-year Treasury yield is the key rate; 5% is a line in the sand and the November 4 Treasury refunding could bring yields down.
The new ROSY ETF is a barbell of high-real-rate fixed income and hard assets.
He is bullish on hard assets and commodities including gold, gold miners, uranium, rare earths, oil, and base metals.
He is bearish on the US dollar and cautious on long-duration bonds and equities.
Caterpillar's drop and stalled Magnificent 7 are cited as warning signs for the AI/equity trade.
Homebuilders could become a tactical buy once market rates peak.

Ideas

David Rosenberg President, Rosenberg Research 0:00

Avoid duration and de-risk stocks.

The Fed is making a policy mistake by shifting toward multiple rate hikes into a weak one-and-a-half percent economy and an oil shock; Treasury yields are rising because of Fed expectations and risk premia, not inflation, so investors should avoid bond duration and start de-risking equities.

David Rosenberg President, Rosenberg Research 1:24

Buy ROSY ETF diversified barbell.

The new ROSY ETF, managed by Corton Capital and inspired by Rosenberg Research's top conviction themes, is a low-to-moderate risk unconstrained portfolio built as a barbell of cash-flow fixed income in high real rate and flat yield curve markets plus hard assets, positioned 70% inversely to the US dollar.

David Rosenberg President, Rosenberg Research 2:17

Own hard assets for pricing power.

Hard assets and commodities have pricing power and hedge goods inflation, tariffs, wars, security of supply, and recurring supply shocks; the portfolio is overweight gold, gold miners, uranium, rare earths, pipelines/energy infrastructure, and base metals.

David Rosenberg President, Rosenberg Research 14:18

Watch 10-year yield near 5%.

The 10-year Treasury note is the key rate for the economy, with 5% as the likely line in the sand; Treasury can influence the curve through supply, and the November 4 refunding announcement may act as a bazooka to bring 10-year yields lower, similar to the Q4 2023 refunding that took yields from 5% to 4%.

David Rosenberg President, Rosenberg Research 47:46

Own short duration and EM bonds.

The fixed-income side of the portfolio uses short-duration bonds and 2-year notes plus local-currency emerging market bonds to generate cash flow and to capture areas with flat yield curves and high real interest rates.

David Rosenberg President, Rosenberg Research 48:12

Oil supported by supply-demand balance.

Oil is held as a hedge against escalation in the war and recurring supply shocks; even if the current war ends, unless there is a global recession the supply-demand balance should still favor higher oil prices.

David Rosenberg President, Rosenberg Research 51:42

Short the US dollar.

The US dollar is in the early stages of a fundamental bear market, and the portfolio is deliberately positioned 70% inversely to the US dollar to benefit from that trend.

David Rosenberg President, Rosenberg Research 56:59

Caterpillar drop warns AI trade.

Caterpillar is a non-tech poster child for the AI/data-center construction boom because its turbines and equipment feed data construction, yet the stock is down nearly 30% from its peak; Rosenberg sees this as a leading indicator and a warning about extrapolating the AI trade.

David Rosenberg President, Rosenberg Research 57:40

Mega-cap tech leadership is stalling.

The Magnificent 7 has gone nowhere for six months despite the AI narrative; strong rotational churn within the group has masked that the entire group has not made investors money, suggesting mega-cap tech leadership is stalling.

David Rosenberg President, Rosenberg Research 61:03

Watch homebuilders for rate-peak entry.

Homebuilding stocks have already fallen a lot, but Rosenberg would not buy yet; once there is clarity that the Fed either hikes only in a truncated cycle or market rates peak and 10-year yields come down, homebuilders/HGX could become a tactical buying opportunity, especially around the November 4 Treasury refunding.

Yields Explode, Fed To ‘Make A Big Blunder’ Hiking Into Oil Shock | David Rosenberg

Summary

Ideas

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