Идеи
Long-term Treasuries lack real long-term buyers.
The long end of the Treasury market is weak: rising yields reflect weakness in the underlying market, currency, and economy, so higher yields are not attracting the real long-term buyers needed. Pension funds, insurance companies, foreign governments and institutions—the buy-and-hold 20/30-year buyers—are not interested, and much of the reported foreign participation is hedge funds in the Cayman Islands.
Steve Hanke
Профессор прикладной экономики, Университет Джонса Хопкинса
6:13
30-year Treasury yield can rise 50bps.
The Treasury is picking a fight with a bond market much larger than itself, and it does not have enough firepower; yields round-tripped after the buyback and long-term yields are headed higher. The Fed may ultimately need QE or yield curve control, but those are dangerous, expensive band-aids while inflation is still a problem.
Watch 10-year Treasury yield above 5%.
A break above 5% on the 10-year Treasury yield is the scary Defcon-1 line where things would really start to break; the bond market is taking control from the Federal Reserve, and with $40 trillion of debt and over $1 trillion in interest expense, the 10-year yield above 5% is the key threshold to watch.
Aggressive Fed intervention risks dollar downside.
If the Federal Reserve decides to become even more aggressive with market intervention, the US dollar could see much more downside; the Treasury is currently playing a game of chicken, and aggressive intervention is the path to dollar weakness.
Gold is preferred fiscal crisis hedge.
With the US approaching $40 trillion of national debt, about $7 trillion of Treasury refinancing per year, and interest costs exceeding defense spending, the US is headed for a fiscal crisis. In that crisis there is no place to hide except gold or Bitcoin, and central banks are buying gold hand over fist, making gold the preferred haven; gold could reach $17,000 an ounce in a Treasury collapse.
This The David Lin Report video, published August 22, 2026,
features Adrian Day, Steve Hanke, Gareth Soloway, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mark Skousen
discussing TLT, 30-year US Treasury bonds, 10-year US Treasury yield, USD, BTC, GLD.
5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Adrian Day,
Steve Hanke,
Gareth Soloway,
Danielle DiMartino Booth,
Mark Skousen
· Tickers:
TLT,
30-year US Treasury bonds,
10-year US Treasury yield,
USD,
BTC,
GLD