The Market’s $40T Question: Can Treasury Keep Yields Under Control?

Смотреть на YouTube ↗  |  22 августа 2026, 15:00  |  20:03  |  The David Lin Report
Спикеры
Adrian Day — Президент, Adrian Day Asset Management
Steve Hanke — Профессор прикладной экономики, Университет Джонса Хопкинса
Chris Vermeulen — Главный рыночный стратег, TheTechnicalTraders
Gareth Soloway — Президент Verified Investing
Danielle DiMartino Booth — Генеральный директор, QI Research
Peter Boockvar — Директор по инвестициям, BFG Wealth Partners
Mark Skousen — Основатель и редактор, The Skousen Report
Matt Milligan — Producer
Clem Chambers — Генеральный директор, Online Blockchain
This compilation episode examines why the U.S. Treasury is buying back long-term bonds to cap yields and whether it can control a bond market that has taken over from the Federal Reserve. Multiple economists and fund managers argue the intervention has limited firepower, long-term Treasury buyers are disappearing, and yields are likely to keep rising. The key threshold discussed is 5% on the 10-year yield, with fiscal-crisis hedges such as gold and Bitcoin highlighted. - Treasury doubled buybacks of long-term bonds, but the 30-year yield round-tripped the next day. - Guests frame the intervention as Operation Twist run by the Treasury, not the Fed. - Several speakers see long-term Treasury yields heading higher, with the 30-year chart resembling 2007. - The 5% 10-year Treasury yield is widely treated as the key stress threshold. - The $40 trillion national debt and rising interest costs are central concerns. - Gold and Bitcoin are discussed as fiscal-crisis hedges, with gold preferred and central banks buying. - Aggressive Fed intervention is seen as a potential source of US dollar downside.
Идеи
Adrian Day Президент, Adrian Day Asset Management 3:29
Long-term Treasuries lack real long-term buyers.
The long end of the Treasury market is weak: rising yields reflect weakness in the underlying market, currency, and economy, so higher yields are not attracting the real long-term buyers needed. Pension funds, insurance companies, foreign governments and institutions—the buy-and-hold 20/30-year buyers—are not interested, and much of the reported foreign participation is hedge funds in the Cayman Islands.
Steve Hanke Профессор прикладной экономики, Университет Джонса Хопкинса 6:13
30-year Treasury yield can rise 50bps.
The Treasury is picking a fight with a bond market much larger than itself, and it does not have enough firepower; yields round-tripped after the buyback and long-term yields are headed higher. The Fed may ultimately need QE or yield curve control, but those are dangerous, expensive band-aids while inflation is still a problem.
Gareth Soloway Президент Verified Investing 9:54
Watch 10-year Treasury yield above 5%.
A break above 5% on the 10-year Treasury yield is the scary Defcon-1 line where things would really start to break; the bond market is taking control from the Federal Reserve, and with $40 trillion of debt and over $1 trillion in interest expense, the 10-year yield above 5% is the key threshold to watch.
Danielle DiMartino Booth Генеральный директор, QI Research 13:23
Aggressive Fed intervention risks dollar downside.
If the Federal Reserve decides to become even more aggressive with market intervention, the US dollar could see much more downside; the Treasury is currently playing a game of chicken, and aggressive intervention is the path to dollar weakness.
Mark Skousen Основатель и редактор, The Skousen Report 17:11
Gold is preferred fiscal crisis hedge.
With the US approaching $40 trillion of national debt, about $7 trillion of Treasury refinancing per year, and interest costs exceeding defense spending, the US is headed for a fiscal crisis. In that crisis there is no place to hide except gold or Bitcoin, and central banks are buying gold hand over fist, making gold the preferred haven; gold could reach $17,000 an ounce in a Treasury collapse.
Далее

This The David Lin Report video, published August 22, 2026, features Adrian Day, Steve Hanke, Gareth Soloway, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mark Skousen discussing TLT, 30-year US Treasury bonds, 10-year US Treasury yield, USD, BTC, GLD. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Adrian Day, Steve Hanke, Gareth Soloway, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mark Skousen  · Tickers: TLT, 30-year US Treasury bonds, 10-year US Treasury yield, USD, BTC, GLD