Todd Horwitz 5.0 19 ideas
Founder, bubbatrading.com
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Speaker is "short the equity markets right now," sold into the rally, and is "looking longer term for that 40 to 60% haircut." Markets exhibit warning signs identical to the 2001 and 2008 bubbles (overvaluation, stressed private credit, bank overleverage, rising consumer defaults). The current rally is a "rip your face off" squeeze, not a change in weak fundamentals. SHORT because the market is overbought, economic problems are unresolved, and a bear market is expected. Timing error; markets could rally further before the anticipated sell-off begins.
SPY
The David Lin Report
Apr 08, 21:09
Founder, bubbatrading.com
Speaker is "obviously still short crude oil" and expects it to be "back in the 60s before the third quarter." The recent price spike was a "fear premium" from Iran tensions, now exiting. The forward curve (Dec futures under $70) shows the true, lower expected value. Underlying demand is weak in a poor economy. SHORT as the commodity is overpriced with the fear premium removed. The Iran ceasefire deal breaks down within days, reinstating geopolitical fear.
WTI
The David Lin Report
Apr 08, 21:09
Founder, bubbatrading.com
Speaker is "long grains" (corn, wheat, soybeans) and expects "a 25 to 30% rally across the board." High input costs (fuel, fertilizer) have farmers planting at a loss, threatening supply. Inflation and money rotating out of equities could flow into grain markets. LONG due to favorable risk/reward with significant upside potential from inflation and supply concerns. Absence of adverse weather or supply shock leads to continued oversupply.
Founder, bubbatrading.com
Speaker "always love[s] gold, silver and platinum," owns them, and believes "there's an outstanding chance we could see [$6,000] gold before years out." Precious metals are the primary hedge against fiat currency devaluation, massive government debt, and persistent inflation. The long-term fundamental drivers remain intact. LONG as a core, long-term holding and inflation/debt hedge. A sharp equity market sell-off forces leveraged players to liquidate gold positions to meet margin calls.
GOLD
The David Lin Report
Apr 08, 21:09
Founder, bubbatrading.com
Speaker "always love[s] gold, silver and platinum," owns them, and believes "there's an outstanding chance we could see [$6,000] gold before years out." Precious metals are the primary hedge against fiat currency devaluation, massive government debt, and persistent inflation. The long-term fundamental drivers remain intact. LONG as a core, long-term holding and inflation/debt hedge. A sharp equity market sell-off forces leveraged players to liquidate gold positions to meet margin calls.
Founder, bubbatrading.com
YouTube
‘Selling Opportunity Of A Lifetime’ Warns Trader: 2008 ‘Nightmare Scenario’ Nears | Todd Horwitz
I'm certainly bullish the grain market. I thought the grains are bottomed... I'm certainly bullish cotton. Agricultural and soft commodities have been beaten down and have formed a technical bottom. When the overvalued equity market eventually sells off, institutional funds will rotate their capital into these undervalued, hard assets. Going long grains and cotton positions a portfolio ahead of the institutional capital rotation out of tech and equities and into cheap commodities. A severe global recession could destroy demand across all asset classes, dragging down even undervalued agricultural commodities.
Founder, bubbatrading.com
YouTube
‘Selling Opportunity Of A Lifetime’ Warns Trader: 2008 ‘Nightmare Scenario’ Nears | Todd Horwitz
The only commodity that I would stay away from in here right now would be the cattle markets because I think they're extremely overvalued here. Unlike grains and cotton which have bottomed, cattle prices have run up significantly and are now overextended. They do not offer the same asymmetric risk/reward for capital rotation. Avoiding cattle protects capital from a potential mean-reversion in an overbought agricultural sub-sector. Supply chain issues or disease outbreaks could cause cattle prices to squeeze even higher, defying overvaluation metrics.
COW
The David Lin Report
Mar 13, 19:46
Founder, bubbatrading.com
YouTube
‘Selling Opportunity Of A Lifetime’ Warns Trader: 2008 ‘Nightmare Scenario’ Nears | Todd Horwitz
From a trader standpoint right now, I am short gold... we had gotten to a point where we had the big rally... and started to consolidate. Gold hit a major technical resistance level after a massive run-up and is now overbought. Until this consolidation phase resolves, the highest probability trade is to short the top of the range. Shorting gold in the near term capitalizes on overbought technical conditions and range-bound consolidation, even if the long-term macro thesis remains bullish. A sudden banking failure or geopolitical shock could cause gold to break out of its consolidation to the upside immediately, crushing short positions.
GLD
The David Lin Report
Mar 13, 19:46
Founder, bubbatrading.com
YouTube
‘Selling Opportunity Of A Lifetime’ Warns Trader: 2008 ‘Nightmare Scenario’ Nears | Todd Horwitz
I am short oil... this is purely a fear trade right now... oil is in backwardation. The recent price spike is driven by geopolitical fear regarding the Strait of Hormuz, but actual supply is ample and futures markets are pricing in lower costs months out. Once the fear dissipates, the premium will collapse. Shorting oil capitalizes on the inevitable deflation of the geopolitical fear premium and the reality of weak global economic demand. An unexpected escalation in the Middle East that actually disrupts physical supply could cause another parabolic short-squeeze.
USO
The David Lin Report
Mar 13, 19:46
Founder, bubbatrading.com
YouTube
‘Selling Opportunity Of A Lifetime’ Warns Trader: 2008 ‘Nightmare Scenario’ Nears | Todd Horwitz
The stock market has been extremely overvalued... I'm still looking for that pretty dramatic sell-off... we are in a K-shaped economy. High equity valuations are disconnected from the underlying economy, where consumers are maxed out on credit cards and facing delinquencies. As consumer spending breaks and banks mark down bad loans, broad market indices will suffer an 8-15% correction. Shorting major indices takes advantage of the massive divergence between stock prices and deteriorating macroeconomic fundamentals. Rip your face off short-covering rallies can occur, temporarily squeezing short sellers before the broader downtrend resumes.
Founder, bubbatrading.com