Jim Welsh

GDX formed a falling wedge and displayed a large positive RSI divergence near the $70 low. His call from $72–80 targets $88–91 and potentially $102, with a chance of new all-time highs above $117 if gold reaches higher targets. A near-term pullback is likely, and he would buy gold stocks on any dip over the next 1–2 weeks.

Gold is in a corrective wave-four retracement, not yet the start of the move above $6,000. A near-term high is approaching around $4,350–$4,400, after which a pullback will provide a buying opportunity for the next leg toward $4,575–$4,750. Longer-term, after a C-wave below $3,945, gold will make new all-time highs.

Believes gold is in a multi-month correction and will see more price erosion, with a chance to dip below $4,100. Notes gold has not performed well as a safe haven recently. A completed corrective wave pattern (A-B-C) from the 2025 high is underway. A stronger US dollar and potential peace in the Middle East would be near-term negatives for gold. Expects a downward move to complete the correction, presenting a better buying opportunity at lower levels. A severe, unexpected escalation in the Middle East that directly threatens oil infrastructure could trigger a flight to safety, boosting gold.

Stated the S&P is in a downtrend (lower highs, lower lows) and expects "one more shoe to drop" from Middle East escalation, leading to a selloff that could take the index down closer to 6,000-6,200. The anticipated geopolitical escalation will create a final wave of selling pressure before the market is positioned for a more sustainable rally. Advises a defensive posture and raising cash, implying a short or avoid stance until this lower target is reached. A rapid de-escalation in the Middle East could trigger the anticipated rally prematurely.