Matt Gertken

"The US is still the place to be." Gertken disagrees with the "sell America" narrative, citing independent central banking, tech leadership, and favorable demographics (immigration). Despite the noise, the US remains the "cleanest dirty shirt" in the global economy. Until Europe stabilizes or China fixes its debt crisis, global capital has nowhere else to go for safety and growth. Overweight US Equities. US political instability or a severe recession.

Gold is rising due to fears that "US governance is collapsing" and potential future capital controls, alongside Chinese investors "hoarding" commodities because their property market is broken. Precious metals are acting as a hedge against the US fiscal situation and a safe haven for Chinese capital trapped by domestic deflation. As long as US debt concerns persist and China's economy lags, this bid remains. Long Gold and Silver. US fiscal discipline returns unexpectedly or the Fed tightens aggressively, strengthening the dollar.

Gertken states that US strikes on Iran are "likely" this year and that the Iranian regime is unstable. He explicitly says, "In the short term you want to be long oil." While global demand is wobbly (due to China), the geopolitical risk premium is underpriced. A kinetic conflict or regime collapse in Iran could trigger a massive supply constraint, forcing prices higher regardless of the demand backdrop. Long Oil futures or Energy Equities as a geopolitical hedge. China's economy collapses faster than expected, crushing global demand; US/Iran tensions de-escalate unexpectedly.

"We're already in a war with Iran... The US is building up... This is preparation for retaliation... for the Houthis to come back out and try to hit ships... for the Iranians to try to hit the Persian Gulf." The explicit mention of intercepting missiles, defending shipping, and striking ballistic missile sites directly benefits defense prime contractors involved in missile defense systems and naval armaments. The scale of deployment ("way overkill if you're just trying to flex") implies high consumption of munitions. Long Defense Contractors. De-escalation or a nuclear deal would reduce the immediate demand urgency.

"We're already in a war with Iran... The US is building up... This is preparation for retaliation... for the Houthis to come back out and try to hit ships... for the Iranians to try to hit the Persian Gulf." The explicit mention of intercepting missiles, defending shipping, and striking ballistic missile sites directly benefits defense prime contractors involved in missile defense systems and naval armaments. The scale of deployment ("way overkill if you're just trying to flex") implies high consumption of munitions. Long Defense Contractors. De-escalation or a nuclear deal would reduce the immediate demand urgency.

"We're already in a war with Iran... The US is building up... This is preparation for retaliation... for the Houthis to come back out and try to hit ships... for the Iranians to try to hit the Persian Gulf." The explicit mention of intercepting missiles, defending shipping, and striking ballistic missile sites directly benefits defense prime contractors involved in missile defense systems and naval armaments. The scale of deployment ("way overkill if you're just trying to flex") implies high consumption of munitions. Long Defense Contractors. De-escalation or a nuclear deal would reduce the immediate demand urgency.

Gertken advises investors to "increase your holdings of emerging markets" specifically naming "India, Mexico" due to structural reforms and manufacturing shifts. As supply chains decouple from China (Friend-shoring), countries like Mexico and India benefit from increased foreign direct investment (FDI) and manufacturing bases. India specifically has managed inflation well and has a growing population workforce. Long India and Mexico ETFs. Global recession dampening export demand; political instability in local markets.

Gertken advises investors to "increase your holdings of emerging markets" specifically naming "India, Mexico" due to structural reforms and manufacturing shifts. As supply chains decouple from China (Friend-shoring), countries like Mexico and India benefit from increased foreign direct investment (FDI) and manufacturing bases. India specifically has managed inflation well and has a growing population workforce. Long India and Mexico ETFs. Global recession dampening export demand; political instability in local markets.

"The Americans clearly have the advantage... not only innovating these large language models, but also the semiconductor stack." Geopolitics is now a tech race. The US has a structural advantage in the "micro level" of compute and chips. If the US wins the AI race (which Gertken believes they are winning), capital will continue to concentrate in US tech leaders rather than Chinese competitors who are "5 or 10 years behind." Long US Semiconductor and AI infrastructure plays. Regulatory crackdowns or a hot war over Taiwan destroying chip supply chains.

"The Americans clearly have the advantage... not only innovating these large language models, but also the semiconductor stack." Geopolitics is now a tech race. The US has a structural advantage in the "micro level" of compute and chips. If the US wins the AI race (which Gertken believes they are winning), capital will continue to concentrate in US tech leaders rather than Chinese competitors who are "5 or 10 years behind." Long US Semiconductor and AI infrastructure plays. Regulatory crackdowns or a hot war over Taiwan destroying chip supply chains.

"The US is still the place to be." Gertken disagrees with the "sell America" narrative, citing independent central banking, tech leadership, and favorable demographics (immigration). Despite the noise, the US remains the "cleanest dirty shirt" in the global economy. Until Europe stabilizes or China fixes its debt crisis, global capital has nowhere else to go for safety and growth. Overweight US Equities. US political instability or a severe recession.

Gold is rising due to fears that "US governance is collapsing" and potential future capital controls, alongside Chinese investors "hoarding" commodities because their property market is broken. Precious metals are acting as a hedge against the US fiscal situation and a safe haven for Chinese capital trapped by domestic deflation. As long as US debt concerns persist and China's economy lags, this bid remains. Long Gold and Silver. US fiscal discipline returns unexpectedly or the Fed tightens aggressively, strengthening the dollar.

"The Americans clearly have the advantage... not only innovating these large language models, but also the semiconductor stack." Geopolitics is now a tech race. The US has a structural advantage in the "micro level" of compute and chips. If the US wins the AI race (which Gertken believes they are winning), capital will continue to concentrate in US tech leaders rather than Chinese competitors who are "5 or 10 years behind." Long US Semiconductor and AI infrastructure plays. Regulatory crackdowns or a hot war over Taiwan destroying chip supply chains.

Gertken states that US strikes on Iran are "likely" this year and that the Iranian regime is unstable. He explicitly says, "In the short term you want to be long oil." While global demand is wobbly (due to China), the geopolitical risk premium is underpriced. A kinetic conflict or regime collapse in Iran could trigger a massive supply constraint, forcing prices higher regardless of the demand backdrop. Long Oil futures or Energy Equities as a geopolitical hedge. China's economy collapses faster than expected, crushing global demand; US/Iran tensions de-escalate unexpectedly.