Treasury’s $1 Trillion Rescue: What’s Next For Stocks, Gold, Oil | Todd Horwitz
Спикеры
Todd Horwitz
— Основатель, bubbatrading.com
Todd Horwitz argues the Treasury's TGA bond-buyback intervention signals hidden financial trouble, will fail, and will push interest rates and inflation higher. He is tactically short stocks, WTI oil, bond futures, cattle, and short-term Bitcoin, while staying long gold, silver, grains, and long-term Bitcoin. He also says bank stress signals warrant avoiding bank stocks.
- Treasury TGA bond buyback viewed as intervention that devalues dollar and risks higher inflation.
- Interest rates seen rising; 10-year yield could exceed 5% within six weeks, making bond futures a sell.
- Gold and silver bullish; silver seen having largest short-term upside; pullbacks preferred entries.
- Bitcoin has long-term bullish position but is short-term overbought and a tactical sell.
- WTI oil chart bearish with lower highs; December WTI expected below $70, possibly $60s/mid-$50s.
- Stock market bias is short; Todd expects a 40-60% selloff and acceleration after Labor Day.
- Grains considered cheap versus production costs with upside; cattle still has downside room.
- Bank stress concerns echo 2008; Fed/Treasury intervention expected to fail.
Идеи
Short WTI; lower highs continue.
Oil is bearish and he is short/selling rallies: the chart has made lower highs on each Iran/war headline, sanctions do not work, there is a glut of oil, and the backwardated front-month fear premium is a sell signal. He expects December WTI to fall below $70 and possibly into the $60s or mid-$50s by year-end.
Avoid banks; stress-test problems.
He believes banks have serious problems and could not pass a legitimate stress test; the Fed/Treasury intervention is trying to get ahead of hidden trouble, similar to 2008 when officials claimed banks were safe. This makes bank equities unattractive/fragile.
Stay long gold; buy pullbacks.
He has been long gold since around $4,000 and expects it to continue higher because Fed/Treasury intervention devalues the dollar and inflationary pressure supports hard assets. After gold's $115 two-day spike, he would not chase and would wait for a pullback for a better entry.
Hold long-term Bitcoin; await pullback.
As a trader, he is selling Bitcoin now because the daily chart is about four standard deviations from the mean, overbought on volume, making a double top against the May high, and this looks like a blow-off top. He expects Bitcoin to be $4,000-$5,000 cheaper at some point before the next conversation.
Short stock market; big selloff beginning.
From a trading standpoint, he is shorting the stock market and looking for short opportunities because he has a downside bias and believes this is the beginning of a 40-60% selloff, with acceleration likely after Labor Day. He sells extended rallies and only buys oversold bounces.
Grains are cheap; upside remains.
Grain markets are seeing positive momentum and are still ridiculously cheap relative to production costs; diesel and hydrous ammonia are near record highs, and at roughly $5 corn farmers are only starting to be profitable, so grains can keep moving higher.
Cattle still has downside room.
Cattle has dropped about 20% from its highs, and he thinks there is still a lot of room to the downside as falling cattle and hog prices make poultry relatively better; the cattle market remains under pressure.
Silver has biggest short-term upside.
Silver probably has the most short-term upside because it has not moved like gold, was cut roughly in half and is still down about 44% from its all-time high, and money flow should rotate into silver as the 'poor man's gold'.
Далее
This The David Lin Report video, published August 24, 2026, features Todd Horwitz discussing WTI, KBE, GLD, BTC, SPY, DBA, LCTD, SILVER. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Todd Horwitz · Tickers: WTI, KBE, GLD, BTC, SPY, DBA, LCTD, SILVER