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19:00
Sep 05
Sep 05
Perpetual futures
COIN 1ST
KALSHI 1ST
BTC
▾
HIGH
US perps should be futures for retail.
Perpetual futures have characteristics of both swaps and futures, but the future category fits better because perpetuals are standardized rather than bilateral like most swaps, and their pricing mechanism is more similar to futures. Past CFTC enforcement actions that labeled perps swaps created confusion, while a policy-setting CFTC division now calls them futures.
Perpetual futures LONG
Coinbase and Kalshi approved for Bitcoin perps.
The CFTC has already classified perpetual futures as futures and authorized Coinbase and Kalshi to offer the first true Bitcoin perpetual contracts on centralized exchanges. That gives these platforms early regulatory approval to participate in the new US crypto perpetual futures market, though CME's lawsuit seeks to undo the authorization.
COIN LONG
KALSHI LONG
BTC LONG
HIGH
16:25
Sep 05
Sep 05
Joseph Wang
5h
WTI
DIESEL 1ST
Global sovereign bonds
IEF
30-Year US Treasury Bond
▾
HIGH
Middle East conflict drives energy prices higher.
Joseph argues that oil and energy prices are likely to keep climbing because of escalating Middle East military conflict, and this creates serious upside risk for inflation. He notes US refined products like diesel have already hit an all-time high and that additional conflict is occurring as he records, so headline inflation could trend higher near term.
WTI LONG
DIESEL LONG
Middle East resolution would lift sovereign bonds.
He argues the main driver of the surge in global bond yields is Middle East energy prices, not US fiscal crisis, hyperscaler debt crowding out, or strong US growth. If the Iran war eventually resolves, he expects bond yields to fall sharply, implying sovereign bond prices would rally.
Global sovereign bonds WATCH
IEF WATCH
30-Year US Treasury Bond WATCH
HIGH
16:22
Sep 05
Sep 05
DIESEL 1ST
WTI 1ST
AAPL 1ST
U.S. technology sector
10-Year Treasury Note
▾
HIGH
Diesel and crude face supply-driven upside.
Diesel is in a distillate crisis because Ukraine has been striking Russian refineries and Russia is a key diesel exporter, while peak demand season is starting; crude is also elevated due to the Iran conflict. OPEC output increases are mostly theoretical because shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained.
DIESEL LONG
WTI LONG
Apple product cycle looks healthy.
Apple's upcoming product launch, especially the foldable iPhone Ultra, is supported by increased production volume requests to suppliers and an expected healthy initial launch of about 10 million units; Apple does not need to be first to win, and the new CEO's hardware ecosystem push can drive the next product cycle.
AAPL LONG
Tech valuations look attractive now.
U.S. technology valuations are below their long-term average and tech earnings are strong; non-tech is expensive because earnings are not coming through, so tech looks relatively attractive.
U.S. technology sector LONG
Rising capital needs push yields higher.
Enormous capital raising for data centers and AI plus record government borrowing and deficits mean the Treasury must compete for financing, likely pushing 10-year bond yields higher.
10-Year Treasury Note SHORT
Allied defense spending must increase.
Allies such as Canada have been free riding on U.S. defense and need to increase defense spending both for NORAD and as key NATO partners; China is the greatest strategic adversary, requiring stronger allied defense, technology, and trade cooperation.
ITA LONG
HIGH
15:36
Sep 05
Sep 05
Fed Funds Rate
SPY
XLE
KBE
XLK
▾
HIGH
Strong jobs report makes Fed hike likely.
The jobs report was even stronger than the payroll number suggests, with upward revisions and broad labor absorption confirming a robust economy; the market is correctly pricing that the Fed will raise rates, especially after Fed Chair Walsh signaled he is inclined to hike when data look strong.
Fed Funds Rate LONG
US earnings strength supports equities.
Earnings season grew about 55% year-over-year versus a typical 9%, boosted partly by one-time items but also by broad strength; Golub remains pretty optimistic and says valuations are low, so the equity market is not signaling stretched valuations or a crash.
SPY LONG
US oil exporter status boosts energy earnings.
Higher oil prices are normally seen as a negative, but the US is an oil exporter; the energy sector grew earnings roughly 140% and, even at only about 4% of the S&P 500, added significantly to overall earnings.
XLE LONG
Banks earnings beat on lending, IPOs.
Banks are doing enormous lending and IPO/capital markets activity, generating strong profits; estimates had not reflected this strength and banks delivered better-than-expected results.
KBE LONG
Tech valuations cheap versus non-tech.
US tech valuations are below their long-term average because earnings rose faster than prices; if anything is expensive, it is non-tech where earnings are not coming through, so tech offers relative value.
XLK LONG
US Non-Tech Sectors AVOID
Capital competition pushes ten-year yields higher.
Record AI/data center capital raises and direct financing must be added to the largest increase in government deficit borrowing; the two compete for capital and are likely to push the long end of the curve, especially ten-year bond yields, meaningfully higher.
10-year U.S. Treasury Yield LONG
HIGH
14:36
Sep 05
Sep 05
WTI
DIESEL 1ST
Oil tanker shipping
▾
HIGH
Oil and diesel rise on Hormuz disruption
Renewed U.S.-Iran escalation and strikes on Iranian crude carriers are driving oil prices and especially diesel costs back up. The risk is not just headline conflict but the physical difficulty of moving crude through the Strait of Hormuz, with shipping, insurance, and crewing all becoming harder, keeping upward pressure on energy prices.
WTI LONG
DIESEL LONG
Shipping is the real energy bottleneck
The real energy-market constraint is shipping and transportation rather than production. Vessels must safely transit the Strait of Hormuz, operators need Lloyd's of London insurance, and crews must be willing to sail, making tanker shipping a key bottleneck and a decision-useful risk/reward factor as the conflict drags on.
Oil tanker shipping WATCH
HIGH
13:54
Sep 05
Sep 05
ERUS 1ST
IRAN 1ST
▾
HIGH
Maximum economic pressure on Russia
Europe must apply maximum economic pressure on Russia because Moscow has not changed its war aims; the EU has 21 sanctions packages with a 22nd on the way, has sanctioned 700 Russian shadow ships, has sanctioned all Russian gas, and is cutting supply chains to stop Russia's war machine.
ERUS AVOID
Economic isolation of Iran works
The EU supports economic isolation of Iran and believes sanctions may work to prevent Iran's nuclear program; existing measures target the Revolutionary Guard and Iran's cooperation with Russia, and economic isolation actually works.
IRAN AVOID
HIGH
13:12
Sep 05
Sep 05
CVX
US oil companies
UGA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Venezuela deal blindsides US oil companies
US oil executives say they were blindsided by the Trump administration's Venezuela deal with North American Blue Energy Partners; the no-bid arrangement removes fields and lease packages from commercial talks and creates a supercharged US government-backed competitor, leaving incumbent oil companies with less opportunity in Venezuela.
CVX WATCH
US oil companies WATCH
Venezuela deal won't lower gasoline before midterms
The Venezuela deal is unlikely to bring gasoline prices down before the midterms because existing infrastructure is badly damaged, some fields must be developed from the ground up, and industry figures see a gradual production ramp over about five years rather than an immediate wave of new refined gasoline.
UGA LONG
HIGH
13:00
Sep 05
Sep 05
ETH
▾
HIGH
Ethereum wins as AI agents need finality.
As AI agents become revenue-producing units that may be delegated to access financial accounts, investors will need crypto rails with smart contracts, finality, and instant settlement to prevent rogue agents from draining resources. Ethereum is uniquely positioned because it is the largest smart-contract platform by wallets and activity, with network effects and financial institutions already building on it.
ETH LONG
HIGH
12:27
Sep 05
Sep 05
TECK 1ST
031980.KQ 1ST
030200.KQ 1ST
403870.KQ
060240.KQ 1ST
▾
HIGH
Own strong momentum semiconductor equipment leaders.
After the July rebound, the strongest leaders from the low have maintained their trends even as the KOSPI whipsawed. PSK Holdings, EO Technics, TCK, and HPSP are up 83-89% from their lows without breaking trend, showing real market leadership. The speaker argues stock trading is trend, and investors should own these momentum leaders rather than broken laggards.
TECK LONG
Own strong momentum semiconductor equipment leaders.
EO Technics, PSK Holdings, HPSP, and Park Systems are among the few Korean equipment companies that actually supply TSMC, and TSMC is currently spending heavily on advanced packaging. These companies are globally competitive leaders, not second-tier domestic suppliers, so they can withstand macro pressures such as won strength better than ordinary export stocks.
031980.KQ LONG
030200.KQ LONG
403870.KQ LONG
Buy TSMC-supplying Korean equipment makers.
EO Technics, PSK Holdings, HPSP, and Park Systems are among the few Korean equipment companies that actually supply TSMC, and TSMC is currently spending heavily on advanced packaging. These companies are globally competitive leaders, not second-tier domestic suppliers, so they can withstand macro pressures such as won strength better than ordinary export stocks.
060240.KQ LONG
Avoid broken-trend shipbuilders.
Shipbuilders cannot perform while the won has appreciated about 15% against the dollar over two months. At current 1,350 won levels, export companies are already under pressure; shipbuilders are essentially powerless in the face of the currency. This is a distinct macro headwind from the chart-based trend argument.
042660.KS AVOID
010140.KS AVOID
009540.KS AVOID
329180.KS AVOID
Foreign futures support KOSPI rebound.
Foreign investors have accumulated 7.2 trillion won in September futures net buying since June 12, and the 60-day moving average has crossed above the 120-day moving average. Combined with 2026 earnings upgrades, won strength making Korea attractive in foreign currency terms, and historical patterns showing more than 51% probability that KOSPI holds above a 5% decline after such golden crosses, the speaker expects KOSPI to turn upward around Chuseok.
EWY LONG
Robotis is robot sector leader.
Robotis is showing leadership within the robot sector by entering the top 20 Korean weekly gainers while many other robot stocks fell. The speaker says Robotis is saying 'I am the robot leader' and notes that one competing robot stock that rose is loss-making, so selective quality matters.
108490.KQ LONG
Prefer Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
Samsung's HBM share is recovering from 21% to 33% while SK Hynix's share is converging from 58% to 50%; HBM4 moves base die production into foundry, where Samsung has an advantage. Memory stocks trade around 5x P/E; if war ends and long-term rates fall, the speaker sees 6-7x and 20-30% upside. Among pure memory names, he prefers Samsung Electronics as the safer pick because it also has foundry, smartphones, and on-device AI.
000660.KS LONG
005930.KS LONG
Samsung SDI leads AI power-grid batteries.
Samsung SDI is the only major Korean battery maker with genuine profitability before US AMPC subsidies; it is transitioning from EV batteries to AI power-grid ESS. US ESS demand is projected to grow from 100GW in 2026 to 500GW by 2030, and Samsung SDI's US ESS share target rises from 7% to 35% on prismatic LFP, Indiana local production, long-term contracts, and Section 301 tariffs. The sale of Samsung Display shares raised 4.45 trillion won without dilution, removing near-term cash/rights-issue risk. Scenario values range from 310,000 to 1,070,000 won, with the speaker seeing 600,000-1,000,000 as possible.
006400.KS LONG
AI hardware leads on real earnings.
In a flat S&P 500 week, money clearly rotated into AI hardware where earnings are confirming demand. Dell rose 14.9% after AI server revenue and guidance were raised sharply, and NVIDIA gained 5.9% on its MediaTek partnership and NVLink Fusion adoption. Semiconductors and AI hardware led while software lagged.
DELL LONG
Energy stocks benefit from oil spike.
WTI surged more than 9% during the week on U.S.-Iran conflict and Hormuz supply disruption fears. Within the S&P 500, energy stocks such as Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and Exxon Mobil advanced with oil, showing the market is pricing upstream energy strength.
CVX LONG
XOM LONG
AI hardware leads on real earnings.
NVIDIA's CUDA platform and active M&A strategy are extending its ecosystem beyond GPU sales. The company has invested in OpenAI, CoreWeave, Hugging Face, and MediaTek, and next-year revenue is guided toward $673bn with massive operating cash flow. Even a cyclical sales decline could be absorbed by pausing shareholder returns, leaving the cash-flow power intact.
NVDA LONG
GE Vernova expands power-grid exposure.
GE Vernova gained 3.3% after securing a contract to participate in restoring Venezuela's grid, and the U.S. government has outlined power capacity expansion. This broadens GE Vernova's non-data-center power infrastructure market, adding to its grid investment exposure.
GEV LONG
Avoid high-valuation software on rates.
As U.S. 10-year yields rose toward 4.78%, high-valuation software sold off: Palantir fell despite winning a Titan ground station production contract, while Palo Alto and Datadog also dropped sharply. The pressure is valuation and rate-driven, not company-specific, so high-multiple software is being avoided.
PLTR AVOID
PANW AVOID
DDOG AVOID
Energy stocks benefit from oil spike.
ConocoPhillips is a low-cost upstream producer with a strong asset base including Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken, Marathon Oil integration, Willow growth, LNG optionality, and aggressive buybacks. However the valuation already reflects premium quality at 6.2% free cash flow yield and 6.7x EV/EBITDA, so the stock is a watch rather than a fresh buy; the next move depends on oil direction and actual free cash flow improvement.
COP LONG
Own machine tool supplier DN Automotive.
Semiconductor equipment expansion is constrained by raw materials and skilled workers, but precision machine tools are essential to build the equipment. DN Automotive, formerly Donghwa Tire, has grown 10x in sales and market cap by supplying machine tools and related precision machining, and the speaker views it as a way to diversify beyond direct semiconductor equipment makers.
DN Automotive LONG
Marvell selected as next-week gainer.
Selected as Claire's next-week expected top pick in the show's weekly stock-selection segment.
MRVL LONG
Pearl Abyss selected as next-week gainer.
Selected as Taban's next-week expected top pick in the show's weekly stock-selection segment; earlier he noted Pearl Abyss has a DLC release scheduled for October 15 and he personally bought it.
263750.KQ LONG
Adobe selected as next-week gainer.
Selected as Bok's next-week expected top pick in the show's weekly stock-selection segment.
ADBE LONG
HIGH
12:22
Sep 05
Sep 05
AAPL 1ST
▾
HIGH
Apple foldable iPhone demand looks healthy.
Apple's rumored foldable iPhone Ultra should see healthy launch demand: foldable devices are popular globally, Apple has increased production volume requests to its supply chain, and initial launch-cycle volumes could be around 10 million units. Woo Jin Ho adds that Apple never needed to be first to compete successfully against Samsung.
AAPL LONG
HIGH
11:52
Sep 05
Sep 05
DIESEL 1ST
WTI
▾
HIGH
Diesel market in distillates crisis.
Diesel is in a distillates crisis because Ukraine has repeatedly struck Russian refineries and Russia has banned diesel exports, leaving the world with tight refining capacity; markets are catching up to this tightness right as peak demand season begins.
DIESEL LONG
Crude prices likely hold higher.
OPEC output increases are largely theoretical because shipping constraints through the Strait of Hormuz and limited bypass capacity leave little additional export capacity, so announced production boosts are unlikely to translate into lower oil prices.
WTI LONG
HIGH
11:00
Sep 05
Sep 05
KOSDAQ Index
EWY
SOX
Korean semiconductor equipment and materials sector
Korean robotics sector
▾
HIGH
KOSDAQ over KOSPI next week
From next week the market should favor KOSDAQ over KOSPI. KOSDAQ is only about 3% below its 60-day moving average resistance and would open room for more active sector rotation on a breakout, whereas KOSPI has 60-day, 120-day and prior high resistance that requires foreign buying in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. Robotics already triggered the KOSDAQ rebound, so KOSDAQ sectors should stay the focus.
KOSDAQ Index LONG
EWY WATCH
US semis lead, Korean semis follow
Despite the strong US employment print and rate-hike fear, the Philadelphia semiconductor index surged 3.38% while major indices fell. AI hardware/memory names such as Nvidia, Broadcom, Micron, AMD, Intel, Lam Research, AMAT, KLA, SanDisk and Western Digital rallied as inflows differentiated toward AI infrastructure, supporting Korean semiconductor strength next week.
SOX LONG
Korean semi equipment leads next week
Semiconductor materials/parts/equipment is the most likely next-week leader in Korea. US semiconductor equipment names surged and KOSPI night futures rose over 4%; Korean institutions across trust, pension and private funds bought the group during Thursday's sharp dip; many KOSDAQ semi equipment/material names have cleared moving averages and have little overhead resistance. The sector has more elasticity than Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, and an ETF may be used.
Korean semiconductor equipment and materials sector LONG
Hold robots, wait for pullback
Robotics is the trigger that confirms a KOSDAQ rally. Robot stocks surged together and should continue as the first rotation leader, but after a sharp Friday, new buying is somewhat burdensome; existing holders should stay and new entrants should wait for a pullback before the next leg.
Korean robotics sector LONG
Prepare biotech and secondary batteries next
After robotics and semiconductor equipment, the next rotation batters on KOSDAQ are likely biotech/pharma and secondary batteries. Both were relatively weak in the latest order, so investors who want to prepare for the next turn can start accumulating these two sectors before they move.
Korean secondary battery sector LONG
Korean Biotech/Pharmaceuticals LONG
Prefer power, nuclear, construction leaders
Rather than steel or LNG pipe, limited rotation capital should be concentrated in power infrastructure, nuclear and construction leaders. Sanil Electric, Hyundai Engineering & Construction and Doosan Enerbility are representative large-cap leaders, and one or two names are enough for the setup.
034020.KS LONG
000720.KS LONG
US power equipment remains strong
Within US equities, AI infrastructure outside big tech was strong: power equipment and utility-type names such as Constellation Energy rallied, and Bloom/Blue Energy jumped after S&P 500 inclusion. Similar power equipment issues should keep reflecting positive news next week.
US power equipment sector LONG
CEG LONG
Tesla drop is profit-taking, still positive
Tesla's 6% drop is profit-taking after a run-up into the Cybercab event. The event has now been formally unveiled and expectations for expansion remain, so Tesla is still viewed positively.
TSLA LONG
Big tech weak as rates rise
Big tech was weak because rising rate expectations are unfavorable for big tech; the market differentiated away from big tech and toward AI hardware and power equipment, so big tech is the lagging side of this rotation.
US big tech sector AVOID
Financials work as rate-hike defensive
Financials remain a rate-hike beneficiary and keep rallying whenever attention fades; holding one financial as a defensive position within the rotation is reasonable.
KBE LONG
Refining earnings keep improving next year
Korean refining/oil earnings should keep improving through the first half of next year, so existing refining positions can be carried.
Korean oil refining sector LONG
Shipbuilding okay but lower priority
Shipbuilding is still okay but there is doubt about how fast it can move; existing holders may keep positions, but it is lower priority than semiconductor equipment, robotics, biotech/batteries and power/nuclear.
Korean shipbuilding sector LONG
Crypto rally has staying power
Crypto sentiment remains good and the recent crypto strength should have continuation.
Cryptocurrencies LONG
Trade hair loss on market dips
Hair loss treatment stocks are a short-term trading vehicle to look at when the market pulls back.
Korean hair loss treatment theme LONG
Trim foldable/iPhone momentum before launch
Foldable/iPhone-related momentum is an event trade ahead of the September 9 Apple launch; Apple is unlikely to ship the rumored 10 million foldable units, so holders should trim before the launch event.
Korean foldable/iPhone supplier theme AVOID
HIGH
11:00
Sep 05
Sep 05
Fernando Ulrich
11h
ARGT
EWZ FLIP
UGA 1ST
ECH 1ST
DIESEL
▾
HIGH
Argentina and Chile are improving.
He sees real winds of change in Argentina and Chile, with renewed hope because those nations are moving in the correct policy direction and can escape decades of economic and social decline.
ARGT LONG
ECH LONG
Brazil is in grave institutional crisis.
He sees Brazil as being in its most serious institutional and political crisis in republican history, citing the Banco Master scandal and loss of institutional credibility, and says this will have negative impacts on elections, the economy, society, and the country's future.
EWZ AVOID
Diesel and gasoline prices are surging.
He warns that US August CPI may accelerate because diesel and gasoline prices have surged over the last 40 days, which could spook the Fed and support higher interest-rate expectations.
UGA LONG
DIESEL LONG
Nvidia is AI boom's main beneficiary.
Nvidia's acquisition of Hugging Face shows it is not only the main beneficiary of the AI race but is actively keeping the boom going by investing in, buying, or financing customers and suppliers, reflecting its strong AI position and commitment to maintaining momentum.
NVDA LONG
German industry is losing competitiveness.
German industry is losing competitiveness due to the energy shock from the Ukraine war, the loss of Russian gas, and rising Chinese competition, with companies pushing to restore a 40-hour workweek and Volkswagen planning another 50,000 job cuts while studying plant closures.
EWG AVOID
China offers more economic freedom than Brazil.
He argues China has more economic freedom than Brazil, is easier for doing business, and prefers China's public spending model that invests in productivity-enhancing infrastructure instead of Brazil's transfer-heavy state spending.
FXI LONG
OranjeBTC is well managed and oversold.
OranjeBTC is in an excellent moment, is well managed, has a very healthy capital structure with low leverage, is launching new products, and the recent share-price weakness is technical and seller-driven by the Winklevoss twins rather than a fundamental problem.
ORNBTC3.SA LONG
Chinese EVs will keep flooding Brazil.
He believes the flood of Chinese electric vehicles into Brazil is an irreversible trend; current very low prices will not last forever as the Chinese currency appreciates, but the penetration of Chinese EVs remains.
Chinese EV makers LONG
Chinese yuan should keep appreciating.
He calls the Chinese yuan one of the only currencies that keeps appreciating since Trump took office, recently reaching around 6.71 to the dollar, and expects it will need to appreciate further.
CNY LONG
HIGH
10:00
Sep 05
Sep 05
Thread Guy
12h
BTC
AMC
PUMP FLIP
HOOD
SOL
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin to 81K with on-chain euphoria
He says he made a call a month and a half ago that Bitcoin would run toward 81K or so and that it would be euphoria on-chain; now the on-chain turbo bull looks like the most beautiful thing he has ever seen, implying the move continues.
BTC LONG
AMC coin is best stock-meme play
The AMC tokenized stock coin is maybe the best coin ever because the public fight between AMC's CEO and Vlad is electric, generated huge on-chain volume, squeezed AMC stock pre-market, and shows the market wants stock memes. He expects the stock-token/stock-meme narrative to keep working.
AMC LONG
Pump flanked by Robinhood, fees crumbling
Pump is being flanked by Robinhood chain while it fights the FOMO social trading war, and Pump fees just hit the lowest level since August 16th. He sold a third of his Pump holdings and plans to sell the next clip, expecting competitive pressure to continue.
PUMP AVOID
Robinhood stock-token strategy is winning
Robinhood and Vlad are executing the tokenized stock and meme listing strategy perfectly with no leaks or mistakes, using the biggest retail exchange and strong stock-token demand. He believes Robinhood has struck a goldmine and the Robinhood chain momentum should continue.
HOOD LONG
Solana lacks exchange, faces brutal competition
Solana is in a brutal spot because it has no exchange, trading apps abstract chains, and assets are not deploying to Solana. His thesis has downgraded from hub of on-chain experimentation to hoping for trickle-down liquidity, which he says will not work.
SOL AVOID
HIGH
08:00
Sep 05
Sep 05
3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
14h
SOLAR 1ST
Vehicle-to-grid (V2G)
ESS 1ST
POWL 1ST
XLY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Solar now covers peak summer demand.
Costs for solar and battery storage have fallen dramatically, and even the combined cost of solar plus ESS is now competitive against other power generation sources; this makes the solar-plus-storage combination an economically viable generation option and supports further deployment.
SOLAR LONG
EV batteries provide distributed grid storage.
Electric vehicles can act as distributed batteries through vehicle-to-grid: they charge when solar power is abundant, discharge to the grid in the evening, allow drivers to reduce or eliminate charging costs, and support faster EV adoption; overseas energy providers are already bundling V2G with tariffs and chargers.
Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) LONG
XLY LONG
Solar plus ESS now economically competitive.
For regions with excess solar generation such as Honam and Jeju, the most technically feasible solutions are to connect renewable generation to high-demand areas through transmission or to install ESS to store midday surplus for evening use; these infrastructure needs will grow as renewable penetration rises.
ESS LONG
ESS and transmission solve solar oversupply.
For regions with excess solar generation such as Honam and Jeju, the most technically feasible solutions are to connect renewable generation to high-demand areas through transmission or to install ESS to store midday surplus for evening use; these infrastructure needs will grow as renewable penetration rises.
POWL LONG
Perovskite tandem solar is next-generation PV.
Crystalline silicon single-junction solar cell efficiency is near its practical limit, while perovskite-silicon tandem cells have already demonstrated efficiency above 35%; countries are now racing to commercialize them, and higher efficiency can reduce land area and system costs.
Perovskite tandem solar cells WATCH
Efficiency market expands with public financing.
The energy efficiency market is held back because projects with 5-7 year payback periods require large upfront capital while future energy savings are uncertain, causing companies to hesitate; public mechanisms that bridge this uncertainty have historically expanded the market, so such enablers should create growth in energy efficiency.
Energy efficiency market WATCH
HIGH
08:00
Sep 05
Sep 05
KOSPI 1ST
WTI
SMH 1ST
AI Semiconductors
NVDA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Korean stocks rebound next week.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which is directly correlated with Korean equities, showed strong overnight gains and SK Hynix ADR surged, so the Korean market is expected to open and trade meaningfully higher next week.
KOSPI LONG
Oil likely stabilizes despite supply risks.
Oil is the biggest variable, but supply chains are adapting to Hormuz risk through Red Sea routings, AIS transponder workarounds and secured Venezuelan barrels, so oil prices are likely to stabilize rather than spike further; falling oil would also reduce the rationale for further Fed tightening.
WTI WATCH
High rates won't stop AI semiconductors.
Unlike consumer-driven semiconductor cycles, data centers now account for over 60% of semiconductor demand; hyperscalers can tolerate 10% corporate borrowing costs because their operating margins remain in the mid-to-high 30% range, and AI is removing real economic inefficiencies, so 10-year Treasury yields around 4.8% are a volatility factor but not a reason to reduce AI infrastructure and semiconductor exposure.
SMH LONG
Semiconductor inflection point is near.
The semiconductor correction is close to an inflection point; pessimism is focused on negative free cash flow and China competition, but Nvidia's non-hyperscaler data center revenue doubled from $20B to $40B and now nearly matches its $48B hyperscaler revenue, showing AI semiconductor demand is broadening to enterprises, sovereigns and neoclouds.
AI Semiconductors LONG
NVDA LONG
Google Amazon custom AI chips accelerate.
Google and Amazon are moving from internal AI accelerators to external sales: Google has formed JVs with Blackstone/Apollo/Broadcom and will supply TPUs to customers such as Anthropic, while Amazon is now selling its own chips externally; for Google this can turn free cash flow positive, and Broadcom is positioned in customization and networking for these AI data center builds.
GOOGL LONG
AMZN LONG
AVGO LONG
External AI chips drive memory supercycle.
Because every custom AI accelerator still requires memory, Google's and Amazon's external AI chip push is highly positive for memory semiconductor demand; this is why SK Hynix ADR and Micron surged despite higher rates and oil prices.
MU LONG
Memory prices offset strong won.
Strong won will hurt weaker companies, but memory makers are relatively defensive: dollar-based memory prices are still rising 10-20% QoQ in Q3 and high-value HBM4 mix is increasing, so Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix should largely offset FX headwinds and report more resilient earnings than the market fears.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Avoid small-cap semiconductor suppliers on FX.
Rapid won appreciation to 1,350 and possibly the 1,300s will create FX-related losses in Q3 for small/mid semiconductor materials, components and equipment companies with weak balance sheets or excessive hedging; some may swing to net losses and suffer sharp one-day stock drops, so investors should filter these names and manage earnings risk ahead of the reporting season.
Korean semiconductor materials/parts/equipment small caps AVOID
HIGH
06:00
Sep 05
Sep 05
03:35
Sep 05
Sep 05
SILVER 1ST
GLD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Retirees should own physical gold and silver.
Retirement savers should think like central banks and own physical gold and silver as non-correlated diversification to protect purchasing power against persistent inflation, government debt, and deficit spending; fixed income and homes can be unreliable, and retirees cannot afford to sell risk assets in down markets, so precious metals should be accumulated rather than trying to time Fed moves or waiting for a pullback.
SILVER LONG
Retirees should own physical gold and silver.
Gold has a structural bid from central banks that are diversifying away from the weaponized dollar; annual central bank gold buying doubled to over 1,000 tons, and central banks now hold more gold than U.S. Treasuries for the first time since 1996. The macro conditions for gold to reach $5,000—geopolitical problems, deglobalization, global debt, interest costs, and government spending—are already in place, so temporary oil/dollar-driven pullbacks are buying opportunities rather than reasons to wait.
GLD LONG
HIGH
02:00
Sep 05
Sep 05
005930.KS
000660.KS
WONIK IPS
095610.KQ
030200.KQ 1ST
▾
HIGH
Korean memory leaders deeply undervalued, re-rating
Citi turned more positive on Korean semiconductor companies after receiving heavy buy-side questions about tariff risk. Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are trading at downturn-like valuations with 12-month forward P/E ratios near 4.0-4.3x, while Nomura also calls the undervaluation severe and maintains much higher target prices. The memory cycle is tightening, and the speaker expects re-rating when foreign supply returns, though near-term supply may be slow.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Korean semiconductor equipment cycle still strong
Semiconductor equipment and materials names may outperform Samsung Electronics and SK hynix in the near term. Samsung and SK hynix are expanding DRAM capacity sharply, the equipment cycle is still in its early stage, second-quarter equipment earnings missed only because deliveries were delayed, and order backlogs rose 135% year over year while share prices fell about 30% from June. The speaker specifically noted Wonik IPS, Tes, and EO Technics as names to watch.
WONIK IPS LONG
095610.KQ LONG
030200.KQ LONG
Tesla Energy benefits from AI power demand
Tesla Energy/Megapack is becoming a major beneficiary of AI datacenter power demand. Tesla is not just an EV company; its Megapack large-battery business is growing faster than its EV business. The new Texas plant started battery pack production in August, and Megapack supplies xAI, which has AI computing contracts with Anthropic and Google. Tesla battery revenue is rising sharply.
TSLA LONG
Korean battery makers win US ESS boom
US battery demand is exploding because AI datacenters are driving ESS demand. Tesla's Texas plant has about 50GW annual capacity, and Korean battery companies are set to supply roughly 23GW of that volume. The speaker says the core Korean secondary battery names to watch are Samsung SDI, LG Energy Solution, L&F, EcoPro, and EcoPro BM.
066970.KS LONG
247540.KQ LONG
086520.KQ LONG
Korean battery makers win US ESS boom
Samsung SDI is the top pick in Korean battery/ESS because it had lagged in US ESS but is now repositioning. It sold its Samsung Display stake to raise cash, is acquiring the GM joint venture, and plans to convert that capacity to ESS lines. Its production capacity can rise sharply, and it trades at about half the valuation of LG Energy Solution relative to fundamentals and capacity.
006400.KS LONG
KOSPI forward PER is extremely low
The KOSPI 12-month forward P/E has fallen to about 5x, below 2003 levels, indicating the Korean market is very undervalued. The speaker views this as a backdrop for potential re-rating if semiconductor and memory momentum gets reflected.
EWY LONG
HIGH
02:00
Sep 05
Sep 05
3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
20h
SPY 1ST
KBE 1ST
TLT FLIP
XLK 1ST
EWY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Liquidity expansion keeps asset markets supported
The old Fed-only liquidity lens is broken; Treasury spending from the cash account and reverse repo kept market liquidity abundant even as the Fed ran quantitative tightening. Going forward broad money and bank credit creation, not just Fed base money, will expand liquidity, so asset markets should remain supported and buyable on weakness.
SPY LONG
US bank deregulation unlocks credit creation
US bank deregulation, including SLR and LCR relief plus Fed standing liquidity backstops, is designed to get banks to lend rather than sit on cash. That lending creates credit and broad money, which is positive for US bank franchises and the wider liquidity cycle.
KBE LONG
Treasury will defend long-end yields
The US Treasury is actively managing the long end: buybacks begin September 9, long-dated issuance will be reduced while short-term bill supply increases, and the government is committed to defending long-term yields in the 5-5.5% area. If that cap holds, long-term rates fall and long-term Treasury prices recover.
TLT LONG
AI cycle is still early, not peak
AI is not a peak; demand is still early. Like the 1990s PC-to-internet buildout, data center infrastructure spending is not yet producing productivity, but once AI is combined with agents, robots and industry applications, productivity and earnings can broaden across the AI ecosystem.
XLK LONG
Korea broadens beyond Samsung and SK hynix
From the second half into the first half of next year the core mechanism is broadening: money that was concentrated in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, or in semiconductors, will diffuse across the broad Korean market. The era of concentrating only in the two semiconductor leaders is ending.
EWY LONG
Samsung/SK hynix recover via shareholder return
The memory cycle is not at its peak and Samsung Electronics and SK hynix should recover most prior highs, but the next leg depends on shareholder return. If buybacks and dividends build trust with investors, Korean semiconductor PER multiples can re-rate even as operating profit plateaus.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Defense and nuclear benefit from money diffusion
Defense and nuclear sectors were not bad; earnings continued, but money was drained into semiconductors. As semiconductor profit growth plateaus and liquidity broadens, these fundamentally stable sectors should benefit from money diffusion.
Korean defense sector LONG
Korean nuclear power sector LONG
Won strength supports Korean economy and equities
Current KRW strength is not enough to break semiconductor revenue, and it is actually positive for the broader Korean economy and equity market because many Korean SMEs carry heavy dollar debt. A stronger won relieves that bottom-tier stress and supports the domestic economy.
USD/KRW LONG
Next bucket is Korean semiconductor equipment/materials
Hyperscaler capex first filled the memory bucket; now Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are raising capex, so the next bucket is Korean semiconductor equipment and materials, which is already climbing.
Korean semiconductor equipment/materials LONG
HIGH
01:00
Sep 05
Sep 05
IWF
TEM 1ST
KOSPI 200
KOSDAQ 150
SPY
▾
HIGH
Wait for GAAP operating profit inflection in US growth stocks.
For innovative US growth companies that can change the world, investors should not buy too early while they are deeply loss-making. Palantir is the template: after its first GAAP operating profit quarter in Q1 2023, the stock began its real repricing even though the market bottomed earlier in late 2022. If a company will not earn within three years, investors should wait. Once operating profit inflects, entering even then can still capture a 10x move. This timing framework is directly relevant to evaluating Tempus AI.
IWF WATCH
Accumulate Tempus AI on integrated data platform.
Tempus AI is building a precision-medicine operating system, not just a diagnostics business. Its diagnostic testing creates patient touchpoints and data, and that data is de-identified and sold to pharma for drug development and clinical trial design, creating a second revenue stream. Recent M&A extends the patient relationship from early cancer risk through post-treatment MRD monitoring. Industry tailwinds include Moderna's personalized mRNA cancer therapy, SoftBank's Japan JV, and Ark Invest's large position; Google Cloud's usage-linked financing also aligns incentives. Q2 cancer test volume rose 31% and data revenue rose 28%, and adjusted EBITDA turned positive, though GAAP operating losses and SBC remain large. Claire views the growth direction positively and suggests gradual accumulation rather than chasing all at once, with GAAP operating profit inflection as the key confirmation.
TEM LONG
Trade Korean momentum with Bollinger breakout counts.
Using Bollinger Band breakout counts for KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150, Korea behaves as a momentum market. When upper-band breakouts exceed 30 and lower-band breakdowns exceed 50, buying and holding has historically worked because retail-driven flows chase hot themes. When both upper and lower breakout counts shrink, the market is in a quiet phase and participants are already cautious; the current quiet phase warrants monitoring and caution. The indicator is a market temperature gauge, not a prediction, and should be used with other indicators.
KOSPI 200 WATCH
KOSDAQ 150 WATCH
Buy US indices after cold mean-reverting setups.
US equities are mean-reverting in this indicator, unlike Korea. When upper-band breakouts are numerous, US markets tend to rest or pull back. When lower-band breakdowns are numerous, and especially when the index has drawn down about 15% or more, buying S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 has historically had about a 74% win rate. If the market does not pull back to -15%, the data suggests not buying. Daily Bollinger monitoring is less useful; VIX or index-level fear can suffice. The indicator should be used as a market temperature gauge rather than exact daily timing.
SPY WATCH
^NDX WATCH
HIGH
23:52
Sep 04
Sep 04
All-In Podcast
22h
US technology/AI market
AI Data Center Infrastructure
NVDA
San Francisco residential real estate
XLE 1ST
▾
HIGH
Tech euphoria has roughly three more years.
Chamath argues the current market is in the early part of a real tech/AI euphoria cycle, not yet 1999. He says the underlying market realities are real but participants are guessing how far forward to price them, and he does not see it stopping, expecting roughly three more years of this environment.
US technology/AI market LONG
Data center infrastructure revenue is real.
Unlike the dot-com bubble that was based on non-dollar metrics, the current AI boom is showing actual revenue and profit growth in data centers, infrastructure, networking and equipment, with real dollars flowing rather than speculative utilization.
AI Data Center Infrastructure LONG
Nvidia is winning open-source enterprise compute.
With the Hugging Face transaction, Nvidia is becoming the largest open-source AI provider and the #1 competitor to OpenAI and Anthropic for enterprise compute. Jensen can offer sovereign racks and cut token prices 80-90% because he makes money on hardware, enabling the US to blow past China by end-2027.
NVDA LONG
Sell San Francisco residential real estate now.
David Sacks says San Francisco real estate is in a bonkers, euphoric repricing driven by the upcoming Anthropic IPO and OpenAI to follow. He is selling all of his SF properties within the next six months because he feels the IPO clock is ticking and it is the perfect time to clear out.
San Francisco residential real estate AVOID
Venezuelan heavy crude benefits Gulf refiners.
Sacks argues the Venezuela deal is win-win because it secures heavy crude that is complementary to the light sweet crude from US fracking. US Gulf refineries were built for heavy crude and can turn it into diesel and other distillates, so they are structurally well positioned.
XLE LONG
San Francisco ultra-luxury real estate may reprice.
Jason argues San Francisco's ultra-luxury housing market could easily move from around $3,000/ft to $5,000/ft, repricing toward London/Paris/Hong Kong levels because the Anthropic IPO alone is four times all prior SF IPO wealth, inventory is tiny, and local restrictions prevent enough building.
San Francisco ultra-luxury real estate LONG
Dynamic AI cyber defense becomes stronger.
Friedberg argues the world's software and cyber defense infrastructure is shifting from static code to dynamically generated, moving-target defenses. As a result, AI-powered cyber defense will become stronger than offensive AI agents, making cybersecurity a structural winner.
Cybersecurity / AI cyber defense LONG
HIGH
23:30
Sep 04
Sep 04
SPY
005930.KS
000660.KS
EWY
KOSDAQ small/mid parts/materials exporters
▾
HIGH
Rate hike is not structural equity bear.
Even if the Fed raises rates, history shows US equities typically fall about 10% before the first hike and 15% around it, but then rally on average 45% afterward. Because a rate hike signals the economy is not weak, investors should not fear rate hikes and should maintain a long equity bias.
SPY LONG
Hold Samsung and SK hynix long-term.
Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are being sold by panicked retail investors and passive foreign flows, but long-term foreign buyers are accumulating the same names. Fundamentals and shareholder-return improvements remain acceptable for long-term accumulation. Short-term traders should reduce because the range has narrowed, but long-term holders should hold or add rather than dump.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Hold Korean equities, long-term accumulation continues.
Korean equities are under short-term supply pressure from foreign program selling and weak retail sentiment, but long-term foreign investors are quietly accumulating under the surface. Lee argues the correct stance is to hold positions rather than panic-sell, because the visible selling is not matched by a fundamental breakdown and long-term accumulation is expanding.
EWY LONG
Rapid won rise hurts small-cap exporters.
The won's rapid appreciation from the 1,500 area to 1,350 is too fast. Large-cap exporters with global production are less exposed, but KOSDAQ small/mid parts and materials companies are vulnerable because a rapid currency decline can hit their operating profits, so investors should exercise caution with that segment.
KOSDAQ small/mid parts/materials exporters AVOID
Favor tech, watch banks for rates.
Traditional rate-based sector formulas have broken recently, so rather than chasing rate beneficiaries mechanically, Lee suggests two-way positioning: if rate-hike fears ease, semiconductors and technology stocks move most; if rate-hike concerns return, banks and insurance can gradually reflect higher rates.
Korean semiconductor/tech stocks LONG
KBE WATCH
HIGH
23:12
Sep 04
Sep 04
WTI
UGA
DIESEL 1ST
UNG
GLD
▾
HIGH
Record crude, gasoline, diesel prices temporary.
McGlone argues the record-high prices in crude oil, gasoline, and diesel are temporary. Gasoline typically falls in the second half of the year as fuel blends switch, the US surplus of crude oil and fuels is reaching a record, the Western Hemisphere is becoming the price maker, and these petroleum markets are highly correlated and rarely stay up long. He sees the bigger risk as prices falling.
WTI SHORT
UGA SHORT
DIESEL SHORT
Natural gas collapse signals lower prices.
McGlone views natural gas as a key indicator for US heat and electricity costs, and notes the January natural gas futures price just fell to its lowest since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 and is down nearly 20% on the year. He says this points to lower energy prices and that natural gas led the way lower in 2023 and 2024.
UNG SHORT
Gold too expensive; sell precious metals.
McGlone turns bearish on precious metals. He says gold is facing very high interest rates, is at its highest level versus the T-bond index in 40 years, and has become too expensive. He has selling inclinations in gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, and thinks gold may be stuck in a range for years if Treasury bonds are the guide.
GLD SHORT
SILVER SHORT
PPLT SHORT
PALL SHORT
Bitcoin is stock puppet; expect lower.
McGlone calls bitcoin a 'stock puppet' that has shifted from a stud to a dud. He says bitcoin has only matched the S&P 500 on a performance basis since 2021, has unlimited supply, and that its glory days are over. He fully expects bitcoin to go lower, especially if the stock market does.
BTC SHORT
HIGH
23:11
Sep 04
Sep 04
CNBC
22h
STOCKS
Speculative single-digit stocks
XBI
SPY
actively managed mutual funds
▾
HIGH
Young investors should favor stocks over bonds.
Younger investors should be almost entirely in stocks and avoid bonds until at least their mid-50s, because over the last 40 years stocks have been the right way to grow wealth and young people have decades to ride through down markets.
STOCKS LONG
Young investors can take more risk.
Investors in their 20s can afford to take much more risk, including speculative single-digit stocks and tiny biotech companies, because if they lose money they have decades in the workforce to earn it back; older investors need more caution.
Speculative single-digit stocks LONG
XBI LONG
Use low-cost S&P 500 index funds.
A low-cost S&P 500 index fund is the best passive core holding for most investors, especially inside restricted 401k plans, because it has ultra-low fees and lets participants capture broad market performance without picking individual stocks.
SPY LONG
Avoid actively managed mutual funds.
Actively managed mutual funds are a bad deal for most investors because managers are paid based on assets under management rather than performance, most underperform their benchmarks, and high fees eat any outperformance.
actively managed mutual funds AVOID
Avoid sector ETFs for stock pickers.
Individual investors should avoid sector-based mutual funds and ETFs because a diversified fund should already provide adequate exposure, and if an investor is going to take the time to play sectors, they are better off picking individual stocks.
Sector ETFs AVOID
Most ETFs are for trading, not investing.
Most ETFs should be treated as trading vehicles rather than long-term investments because many rebalance daily, which can erode long-term performance and cause losses even when the investor is right; the main exceptions are GLD and S&P 500 ETFs.
ETFs AVOID
GLD is simple gold exposure.
GLD is an ETF he likes as a simple way to play gold, making it one of the few ETF exceptions he endorses for investors.
GLD LONG
Prefer Eli Lilly over Bristol-Myers.
Investors should trim dominant winners such as Eli Lilly and Apple so a portfolio does not become overly concentrated in one company; even the best companies were hit in the 2022 pullback, so reducing position size manages risk.
LLY LONG
AAPL AVOID
Prefer Eli Lilly over Bristol-Myers.
Cramer prefers Eli Lilly over Bristol-Myers because Lilly's growth rate makes him less worried about its price/earnings ratio, implying the growth justifies the valuation.
BMY AVOID
HIGH
23:00
Sep 04
Sep 04
3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
23h
Korean secondary battery sector
ESS 1ST
SOLAR 1ST
EWY
000660.KS
▾
HIGH
Secondary batteries/ESS rise on data-center power needs.
Secondary batteries are emerging as a standout sector while semiconductors pause. Data center construction is being delayed because power infrastructure takes far longer than the data center itself, and data centers require uninterruptible power. Renewable energy needs energy storage systems to be viable, and solar is the fastest near-term solution, especially as the US avoids Chinese products and related demand surges. The theme is backed by actual earnings improvement and valuation expansion, not just narrative.
Korean secondary battery sector LONG
ESS LONG
SOLAR LONG
Use September weakness as October buying opportunity.
September Korean market weakness is driven by known supply and event risks such as Anthropic's IPO, a stronger won, semiconductor earnings cuts, Fed rate uncertainty, Middle East tensions, and pre-Chuseok caution. Lee views these as volatility factors rather than a trend change. After the FOMC decision and Chuseok, and with political pressure not to damage markets into the U.S. midterms, September's excessive caution can become October's upward catalyst. He suggests using September corrections as opportunities rather than reducing positions into October.
EWY LONG
Semiconductor target cuts are FX, not demand.
Citi and domestic brokerages are cutting price targets for Korean memory semiconductor names such as SK hynix because the stronger won trims reported earnings. Lee argues this is a currency translation issue, not a deterioration in the underlying semiconductor business. The market is already absorbing the bad news in advance, so investors should not interpret the target cuts as a sign that semiconductor demand or AI-related buying is collapsing.
000660.KS WATCH
KWEB WATCH
HIGH
22:42
Sep 04
Sep 04
CNBC
23h
SPY
US10Y 1ST
GLD
▾
HIGH
S&P stalls near 782 resistance
The S&P 500/SPY has been remarkably resilient but is stalled just below its measured SPY target of 782 after making an all-time high at 779; he is cautiously optimistic but worried if the market starts breaking under 762 on multiple closes.
SPY WATCH
Ten-year Treasury yields heading higher
The 10-year Treasury yield is ultimately heading higher from a secular technical perspective; he told clients in late March they would not see 4% again this cycle, sees a minimum upside target of 5.6%, and gives an ultimate target of 6.07.
US10Y LONG
Gold consolidating above a solid low
Gold is likely to consolidate for a while after selling off 30% from its peak and retracing about half of that decline; the low made two months ago is probably a solid low, but he does not expect an immediate scream to new all-time highs.
GLD WATCH
HIGH
22:41
Sep 04
Sep 04
CNBC
23h
DTCR
▾
MED
Pause data centers to answer transparency questions
Daniel Castro argues data centers are the physical infrastructure powering America's AI economy and should not face statewide moratoriums or bans. He contends local concerns around electricity, noise, and water can be managed like other large infrastructure projects, while large hyperscalers are already adding clean energy and water-positive projects and data centers generate large local tax revenue, so building them responsibly is an economic upside.
DTCR WATCH
MED
22:30
Sep 04
Sep 04
Market Makers
23h
BNO 1ST
UNG 1ST
LNG 1ST
DBA 1ST
Ammonia 1ST
▾
HIGH
Hormuz disruption keeps oil supply tight.
The Strait of Hormuz is the main export gate for Gulf oil. The 2026 conflict collapsed tanker traffic from about 138 ships per day to 20 without a physical blockade, driven by war-risk insurance repricing. Alternative Saudi and UAE pipelines can only bypass a fraction of the roughly 20 million barrels per day that normally cross Hormuz, and the US energy agency does not expect Middle East production to return near pre-conflict levels before early 2027. Brent returned above $92 in this setup.
BNO LONG
Hormuz removal causes global LNG shortages.
About one-fifth of global LNG trade passes through Hormuz, mainly from Qatar and the UAE. Unlike oil, there is no large pipeline system capable of quickly moving that gas to a terminal outside the Gulf. The 2026 crisis removed close to 20% of world LNG supply at certain moments, raised gas costs in Europe, and caused one of the largest disruptions ever observed in the LNG market.
UNG LONG
LNG LONG
Urea prices surge after Hormuz disruption.
The Gulf is a major exporter of ammonia, urea, sulfur, methanol and other agricultural/chemical inputs. The Hormuz crisis interrupted these flows, and because natural gas is the key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer, higher gas costs tend to push urea and ammonia prices higher. Brazilian urea import prices rose about 76% between early January and March 19, 2026, and producer-paid urea costs rose about 40% during the conflict.
DBA LONG
Ammonia LONG
MOO LONG
HIGH
22:26
Sep 04
Sep 04
1000x Podcast
23h
ZEC
XMR
MEMECOINS FLIP
HOOD
INTC
▾
HIGH
Zcash has highest upside privacy bet
Zcash is his top single long among monetary assets for far higher upside; it is ripping toward $1,000, benefits from monetary debasement, and shielded ZEC usage is growing as privacy demand rises.
ZEC LONG
Monero benefits from privacy usage
Monero is the only coin actually used for privacy, and among monetary assets he cares about Bitcoin, Zcash and Monero; it should do well as privacy usage grows.
XMR LONG
Memecoins benefit from social trading wave
Social trading is drawing new users into memecoins, and crypto is uniquely able to monetize attention quickly, as shown by an AMC-linked coin going from about $100k to $100m market cap in five hours; he sees a golden age of memecoin trading despite lottery-risk caution.
MEMECOINS LONG
Buy Robinhood as crypto finance winner
Robinhood is the only traditional financial institution taking crypto seriously; its chain, tokenization, RWA and stablecoin businesses can create a huge sustainable revenue stream, and HOOD is a long multibagger he is still holding after the move from $92 to $123.
HOOD LONG
Intel targets 140 by year-end
OpenAI's GPT-6 release is crushing benchmarks and reigniting chip demand; Intel is super bullish and could return to $140 by year-end as the summer liquidity lull ends.
INTC LONG
Rebought Nvidia as core AI leader
He bought back Nvidia because he is bullish on core AI assets; in the next phase of the AI trade he wants leaders, and Nvidia is one of the core positions that can continue to run.
NVDA LONG
Buy perp leaders Hyperliquid and Lighter
Real-revenue crypto applications are winning; Lighter is almost $5, was undervalued and integrated by Robinhood, and in the perps-eating-the-world thesis the trade is to buy the leaders Hyperliquid and Lighter rather than chasing laggards.
HYPE LONG
LIT LONG
Biotech remains megatrend position
He is still holding biotech exposure as a megatrend, specifically ARKG and XBI, and believes the portfolio including biotech, Bitcoin, Zcash, Intel and Nvidia can rise 50-100% over the next six months.
ARKG LONG
XBI LONG
Bitcoin breaks 80k to year-end highs
FOMO's user growth has turned gradual rather than spiky, which suggests the space is building and the rally has room; Bitcoin near $80,000 is still early because most retail attention does not shift until Bitcoin breaks all-time highs, which could take six months to a year.
BTC LONG
HIGH
22:09
Sep 04
Sep 04
CNBC
23h
2-Year Treasury Yield
WTI
long-term U.S. Treasuries
SPY
▾
HIGH
Rate hikes delayed until after midterms.
The August jobs report was non-inflationary and gives the Fed room to hike, but the September FOMC is politically constrained by the midterm elections and Trump's tariff threats. Siegel expects rate increases to be delayed until after the election, potentially in December, if inflation data forces action.
2-Year Treasury Yield WATCH
Iran escalation could send oil higher.
Iran is a wild card that could escalate missile attacks before the election, sending oil prices higher and potentially pushing up bond yields, which could force the Fed's hand on inflation.
WTI WATCH
Fed hike could lower long rates.
If the Fed makes a strong move, it could actually lower long-term interest rates by signaling that the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility is intact and it will act, which would support long-term Treasury prices.
long-term U.S. Treasuries LONG
Market may rally after Fed hike.
The stock market would initially have a negative reaction to a September Fed rate hike, but then turn positive because investors would be reassured that the Fed is serious about getting inflation under control.
SPY LONG
HIGH
21:57
Sep 04
Sep 04
MAGS 1ST
ZS
ADBE 1ST
ORCL 1ST
AMZN
▾
HIGH
AI trade funding fragility is concerning
She warns the AI trade is becoming more fragile as funding shifts from cash flow to debt and equity issuance; Magnificent 7 revenue is tied to two private companies with uncertain economics, so disclosures could disappoint.
MAGS AVOID
Zscaler benefits from AI security tailwind
AI is Zscaler's largest opportunity because enterprises fear AI model and agent vulnerabilities; cybersecurity spend is growing and Zscaler's zero trust platform differentiates by hiding assets and securing AI agents, supporting bullish fiscal 2027 growth.
ZS LONG
Adobe CEO choice disappoints Street
Adobe's internal CEO pick disappointed Wall Street; Dave Wadwani was seen as the stronger dynamic leader, and the board needs an overhaul.
ADBE AVOID
Oracle is top-five AI infrastructure play
Oracle is liked by Jefferies despite concerns about $130B debt, OpenAI concentration, and margin transition because it is among the top five AI infrastructure builders and Larry Ellison has navigated tech cycles well.
ORCL LONG
Prefer Amazon Google Microsoft over Oracle
Amazon, Google and Microsoft are the better-executing top three AI infrastructure stories; Oracle is top five but not top three.
AMZN LONG
GOOGL LONG
MSFT LONG
Airline rally unlikely to persist
Airlines face a jet fuel price overhang near highs and will struggle to recoup fuel costs in fall and winter; today's bounce is unlikely to persist.
S&P 500 Passenger Airline Sub-Index AVOID
Prefer Delta and United airlines
Within airlines, Delta has best-in-class premium pricing power and can recover up to half of rising jet fuel costs; United can do almost as well, while American ranks third and low-cost carriers have it harder.
DAL LONG
UAL LONG
Five percent Treasury entry is attractive
The 10-year Treasury yield around 5% is an attractive entry point that has drawn demand from insurance companies, endowments and foundations wanting to lock in long-term yields.
TLT LONG
HIGH
21:57
Sep 04
Sep 04
CNBC
1d
Fed Funds Rate
US Long Bond (30-Year Treasury Yield)
▾
HIGH
Fed should hold rates, not hike/cut.
The August jobs report overstates labor market strength; underlying monthly job growth is only about 50k and wage growth is slowing. With core CPI expected to come in soft around 0.1-0.2% month-over-month and 2.3-2.4% year-over-year, and inflation expectations anchored, Zandi argues the Fed should not raise or cut rates. He says the Fed should hold the line, wait for the CPI report, and see how the data plays out.
Fed Funds Rate WATCH
Rate cuts would spike long-term yields.
Zandi says he is perplexed by calls for rate cuts because cutting rates would be counterproductive: inflation expectations would rise and long-term interest rates would rise, with the long bond potentially moving well above 5% and 30-year fixed rates also moving higher.
US Long Bond (30-Year Treasury Yield) WATCH
HIGH
21:18
Sep 04
Sep 04
CNBC
1d
UGA 1ST
Diesel-crude spread
CRAK 1ST
▾
HIGH
Diesel prices biased higher on tight supply
Record U.S. diesel prices are supported by tight supply: Russia is extending its diesel export ban, product tanker transits through Hormuz haven't picked up significantly, and U.S. distillate production is about 127,000 barrels per day below 2025 due to lighter/sweeter crudes. Diesel demand is also inelastic into harvest season because farmers must run equipment, so demand destruction is limited and prices could stay higher.
UGA LONG
Diesel-crude spread widening on supply constraints
The spread between crude and diesel is widening because Russia is extending its diesel export ban and product tanker transits through Hormuz have not picked up significantly, making diesel relatively stronger versus crude.
Diesel-crude spread LONG
Refiners running hard on attractive economics
Refiners around the world are running flat out because refining economics are very attractive, so any refiner with available capacity is running, which supports the refining sector.
CRAK LONG
HIGH
21:11
Sep 04
Sep 04
UAL
TPR
DAL
RYAAY
SAVE
▾
HIGH
Loyalty programs drive airline profits.
Airlines are effectively banks because their loyalty programs and co-branded credit card economics now drive the bulk of airline profitability. Delta and United are doing incredibly well because of their loyalty portfolios, and airlines that lean into the rewards ecosystem are outperforming.
UAL LONG
DAL LONG
Tapestry sees accelerating new customer growth.
Within a broadly healthy American retail environment, Tapestry is continuing to see more new customer growth, helped by inventory management and marketing/social media-driven customer acquisition.
TPR LONG
Budget models diverge; Ryanair wins, Spirit fails.
The pure economy budget model does not work in the U.S., as shown by Spirit; Ryanair makes budget flying work in Europe only because it operates to third-tier airports that U.S. carriers lack, so the regional models diverge.
RYAAY LONG
SAVE AVOID
Amex premium ecosystem remains strong.
American Express is benefiting from premium card fee increases; even when some customers resist $900 annual fees, they switch to other Amex products like the Gold card and remain in the Amex family. The rewards ecosystem and interchange fees remain very lucrative for Amex.
AXP LONG
Ralph Lauren wins experience and tennis fashion.
Ralph Lauren is one of the specialty retailers doing the best job delivering an experiential destination to customers, with visible lines and traffic; it also benefits from tennis fashion and style trends at the U.S. Open, where its athlete/style sponsorship creates brand wins.
RL LONG
Walmart is a tech-driven retail winner.
Walmart has become a modern technology company, not just a traditional retailer; it captures all income levels, has global scale, and its biggest growth is now coming from higher-income consumers, making its premium multiple and continued relevance understandable.
WMT LONG
HIGH
21:03
Sep 04
Sep 04
TSN 1ST
SFD 1ST
JBS 1ST
LULU
ADBE 1ST
▾
HIGH
Beef processors face Trump policy risk.
President Trump's executive order allowing ranchers to process their own beef targets major beef processors and aims to lower beef prices. Jeff Mason says Trump acknowledged he is taking on those companies and they are not going to like it, creating policy/regulatory risk for meat processors such as Tyson Foods, Smithfield Foods, and JBS.
TSN AVOID
SFD AVOID
JBS AVOID
Lululemon turnaround delayed; competitive losses mounting.
Lululemon has multiple problems: execution missteps, weak product innovation, a 20% drop in leggings, changing athleisure styles, stiff competition from Alo, Vuori, Nike and Adidas, and soft China sales. The new CEO's turnaround is likely 9-12 months away, leaving the stock unattractive in the near term.
LULU AVOID
Adobe CEO transition adds uncertainty.
Adobe faces CEO transition uncertainty after the creative-division head was passed over and is leaving the company, while the stock was already under pressure from AI disruption fears and is down about 60% since the pandemic. The market is questioning the new leadership structure, keeping the stock vulnerable.
ADBE AVOID
Regulatory threat to Fair Isaac monopoly.
Fair Isaac Corp is under regulatory pressure after FHFA Director Bill Pulte renewed criticism over credit bureau overcharging and floated dismantling the FICO score monopoly, including possibly requiring only one credit agency. That threatens Fair Isaac's FICO licensing model.
FICO AVOID
HIGH
21:00
Sep 04
Sep 04
KOSDAQ Index
EWY
005930.KS
000660.KS
MU
▾
HIGH
Buy KOSDAQ below 10-year moving average.
Historically, whenever KOSDAQ has broken its 10-year moving average it has always recovered. The strategy is to buy below the 10-year moving average and hold until it recovers; the firm used this to buy on the 29th and sees it as a high-conviction KOSDAQ tactical rule.
KOSDAQ Index LONG
KOSPI dips likely pre-Chuseok buying opportunity.
September should see rate-hike fears fade because Micron's late-September earnings are expected to be okay, the BOJ and FOMC are likely to hold rates, and US unemployment is expected to tick higher. That sets up buying before the Chuseok holiday and a stronger market from October, with KOSPI seen in a limited range and likely to test the 5-month moving average around 7,380-7,500.
EWY LONG
Samsung rallies until operating margin peaks.
Samsung Electronics' operating margin is still rising, with consensus 3Q operating margin around 55%; historically the stock peaks when operating margin peaks, so the uptrend is not over. Strong buybacks and potential shareholder-return/special-dividend news add support, and positive foundry news could drive a retest of the previous high by January.
005930.KS LONG
Hynix right shoulder targets 230-250.
SK hynix's 2Q miss was attributed to high-priced HBM being pushed to the next quarter. If that high-priced volume is recognized in 3Q, the stock should rally into the September-October earnings window and build the right shoulder, likely toward the 230,000-250,000 won area as foreign buying returns on Halloween-related effects; year-end YMTC listing is a later overhang.
000660.KS LONG
Micron earnings support post-Chuseok rebound.
Micron Technology reports fiscal results on September 30, and the speaker expects the report to be not bad; valuation is low, and this should support a rebound after the Chuseok holiday.
MU LONG
SanDisk rallies are selling opportunities.
SanDisk has rallied massively from its April 2025 low and is now correcting. The NAND market is becoming a red ocean, and the speaker says any rebound should be sold rather than chased.
SNDK AVOID
Bitcoin midterm cycle bottom likely forming.
Bitcoin shows a midterm-election cycle pattern: the prior major bottom formed in Q4 2022 around the US midterms, and this time large money may start buying from September after last year's decline. The steep recent daily advance suggests a bottom may be forming.
BTC LONG
S&P 500 monthly trend remains bullish.
The S&P 500 monthly chart shows all major moving averages in bullish alignment, and the Chesley AI model score was upgraded to the 90-100 range, supporting continued strength.
SPY LONG
Liquidity rotates into Korean small-cap stocks.
Liquidity that had concentrated in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix is rotating into smaller individual stocks, creating a stock-picker's market similar to the 2013-2015 period. With large-cap leadership boxed, the speaker expects an intense individual-stock market to unfold.
Korean small-cap stocks LONG
Watch US 10-year yield breaking higher.
The US 10-year Treasury yield has broken above the 4.6% descending resistance line, an important risk level; with the US federal fiscal year ending in September, the speaker says it is necessary to watch how far yields rise this month, as a continued climb could pressure equities and create downside tail risk.
US10Y WATCH
Oil fades at descending trendline resistance.
Oil repeatedly rallies into the descending high trendline and then declines. The speaker views the trendline as key and expects further pullbacks when oil reaches that resistance.
WTI SHORT
HIGH
20:35
Sep 04
Sep 04
CNBC
1d
DIESEL
Heating fuel
▾
HIGH
Refinery shortages propel diesel prices higher
Diesel prices are being driven higher by a shortage of global refinery spare capacity: Middle East refineries have been targeted in the war with Iran, product is not getting out of the Strait of Hormuz, Ukraine is targeting Russian refineries, and US refineries are running at 98% utilization.
DIESEL LONG
Heating fuel bills will be shockingly high
Diesel is closely related to heating fuel, and as colder November weather arrives around midterm elections, households will get their first heating bills of the season and they will be shockingly high.
Heating fuel LONG
HIGH
20:23
Sep 04
Sep 04
WTI
▾
MED
US controls Hormuz; oil flow risk remains
Trump describes the Iran conflict as a limited, intermittent military conflict rather than a war, but says the U.S. controls the Strait of Hormuz 'very strongly' and is 'taking out a lot of oil' and boats, keeping oil-supply and chokepoint risk a live market factor.
WTI WATCH
MED
20:14
Sep 04
Sep 04
US bond market
EWC
▾
HIGH
Rates should fall to 0.5-1%
Trump argues the Federal Reserve should cut rates aggressively, saying the current level near 4% is too high and rates should be around 0.5% to 1% as they were 25 to 30 years ago. He claims a rate hike would not reassure the bond market, implying lower rates would support bonds.
US bond market LONG
Canada vulnerable if US trade cut
Trump warns that if the US stopped trading with Canada, Canada would be in severe trouble because it depends on the US for roughly 95% of its business. He says a trade cutoff would wipe out that business and questions whether Canada could exist, making Canadian assets a trade-policy risk to monitor.
EWC WATCH
HIGH
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