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15:00
Aug 22
Aug 22
TLT
USD
30-year US Treasury bonds
10-year US Treasury yield
BTC 1ST
▾
HIGH
Long-term Treasuries lack real long-term buyers.
The long end of the Treasury market is weak: rising yields reflect weakness in the underlying market, currency, and economy, so higher yields are not attracting the real long-term buyers needed. Pension funds, insurance companies, foreign governments and institutions—the buy-and-hold 20/30-year buyers—are not interested, and much of the reported foreign participation is hedge funds in the Cayman Islands.
TLT AVOID
Aggressive Fed intervention risks dollar downside.
If the Federal Reserve decides to become even more aggressive with market intervention, the US dollar could see much more downside; the Treasury is currently playing a game of chicken, and aggressive intervention is the path to dollar weakness.
USD WATCH
30-year Treasury yield can rise 50bps.
The Treasury is picking a fight with a bond market much larger than itself, and it does not have enough firepower; yields round-tripped after the buyback and long-term yields are headed higher. The Fed may ultimately need QE or yield curve control, but those are dangerous, expensive band-aids while inflation is still a problem.
30-year US Treasury bonds SHORT
Watch 10-year Treasury yield above 5%.
A break above 5% on the 10-year Treasury yield is the scary Defcon-1 line where things would really start to break; the bond market is taking control from the Federal Reserve, and with $40 trillion of debt and over $1 trillion in interest expense, the 10-year yield above 5% is the key threshold to watch.
10-year US Treasury yield WATCH
Gold is preferred fiscal crisis hedge.
With the US approaching $40 trillion of national debt, about $7 trillion of Treasury refinancing per year, and interest costs exceeding defense spending, the US is headed for a fiscal crisis. In that crisis there is no place to hide except gold or Bitcoin, and central banks are buying gold hand over fist, making gold the preferred haven; gold could reach $17,000 an ounce in a Treasury collapse.
BTC LONG
GLD LONG
HIGH
16:11
Aug 21
Aug 21
GLD
ENA
Flop token
US AI/tech sector
BTC
▾
HIGH
Gold, Bitcoin rally on AI money printing.
Arthur argues that AI is entering the capital wastage phase, and as more printed money must be funneled into AI to keep the players afloat, gold and bitcoin should start to perform.
GLD LONG
BTC LONG
Buy Ethereum, Ethena, EtherFi at lows.
Maelstrom has increased its Ethereum position and bought Ethena and EtherFi because sentiment is despondent and these are good levels at the turn; Arthur is allocating outside Bitcoin again.
ENA LONG
ETHFI LONG
ETH LONG
Flop token benefits from agentic AI economy.
Arthur's Flop Network is a fair-launch token for a decentralized compute spot market; he argues AI agents need a native currency directly convertible into compute and memory storage, and the token accrues value if agents use the network.
Flop token LONG
Government-backed US AI tech risky long term.
Arthur warns that US government underwriting of AI is a short-term sugar high but long-term negative for shareholders; state priorities diverge from shareholder returns, and Chinese tech stocks such as Alibaba and Tencent show how government-backed tech bull markets end.
US AI/tech sector AVOID
AI capex expansion not over yet.
Arthur sees AI data-center capex as still in a credit expansion, not a bubble top; the SEC loosened CDO rules and the market rewards capex announcements, so the last third or half of the AI credit story remains. The cycle should turn when a hyperscaler defects and capex decelerates, likely 2027 to early 2028.
AI data center/hyperscaler capex complex WATCH
Ethereum above $5,000 triggers altcoin boom.
Arthur is invested in altcoins and says an Ethereum move above 5,000 would create a generalized altcoin boom; he notes Hyperliquid has already outperformed.
ALTCOINS LONG
HIGH
03:40
Aug 21
Aug 21
10-Year U.S. Treasury Note
30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond
Global sovereign bonds
UUP
BTC
▾
HIGH
Long-end yields head higher still.
The Treasury's increase in bond buybacks from $2bn to $4bn is too small, is not Fed money printing, and is only a temporary respite without a change in fiscal fundamentals. Peter expects the long end to keep rising in the U.S. and globally, with 10- and 30-year yields moving higher after the brief buyback announcement reversal.
10-Year U.S. Treasury Note SHORT
30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond SHORT
Global sovereign bonds SHORT
Dollar faces major structural challenges.
Peter is not bullish on the dollar and has not been; he sees a major diversification in trade and capital flows that over time will be dollar negative, and the Treasury's attempt to force long rates lower risks making the dollar collateral damage. DXY is already at a three-month low.
UUP SHORT
Bitcoin may become digital gold.
Bitcoin's sudden rally alongside gold may mark the beginning of Bitcoin trading like digital gold instead of the Nasdaq, which Peter says is what a Bitcoin holder should want. It still needs follow-through; otherwise the move may just reflect crypto legislation efforts from White House crypto people.
BTC WATCH
Rising long rates threaten equities.
After four years of a bond bear market, the rise in long rates has reached an inflection point where equity investors are beginning to care. Peter expects long rates to keep heading higher and says that will eventually be a problem for the equity market.
SPY AVOID
Commodities and commodity stocks bull run.
Peter runs about one third of his portfolio in commodities and commodity stocks because he believes this is a commodity bull run. He notes last year's precious and industrial metals rally, this year's energy bull market, and now an agricultural extension, and says he is already positioned for it.
XLB LONG
DBC LONG
CCC and private credit refinancing risk.
CCC-rated high yield spreads have widened above their Liberation Day levels, a yellow flag that the lower tier of credit is getting worried. Private credit retail inflows have dried up, and loans made over the last 3-5 years are coming due over the next couple of years at potentially much higher rates.
CCC-rated high yield bonds AVOID
BIZD AVOID
Weaker dollar supports international, EM assets.
Because Peter believes the dollar will ultimately end up lower, he also owns international stocks and international bonds, particularly in emerging markets, which he expects to benefit from a weaker dollar.
International stocks LONG
BNDX LONG
EEM LONG
Emerging market bonds LONG
Agriculture and fertilizer bull continues.
The Bloomberg agriculture index is at its highest since May 2024. Peter sees the energy bull market spreading to agriculture, with high fertilizer prices forcing farmers to use less fertilizer, reducing soil nutrients and yields, and ultimately pushing crop prices higher. He cites $7 wheat, $5 corn and near $13 soybeans as levels that matter if they hold, and expects the fertilizer bull market to continue into next year.
BCOMAG LONG
CORN LONG
WEAT LONG
SOYB LONG
CF LONG
Favor U.S. short duration over long.
On the fixed income side Peter is more in U.S. short duration because he expects long rates to rise and wants to avoid long-duration exposure; this is his portfolio implementation of the long-end bearish view.
short-duration U.S. Treasuries LONG
HIGH
19:54
Aug 20
Aug 20
GLD
SILVER
GDX
BTC
TLT
▾
HIGH
Gold rally unconfirmed, wait for trend change.
Gold, silver, and miners have had a strong news-driven rally, but Chris still sees a longer-term correction with lower highs and lower lows. Gold is below a flat or declining 150-day moving average, and he wants to see prior highs broken, moving averages layered back in order, and more time before treating this as a new bull phase. He is on the sidelines and not buying the rally yet.
GLD WATCH
SILVER WATCH
GDX WATCH
Bitcoin pop likely bounce in downtrend.
Bitcoin's 17% two-day pop is a news and emotion-driven move within a broader downtrend. The long-term moving averages are sloping down, price is below the 150-day average, and the structure looks like bear flags with rallies serving as pauses. He is not trying to pick a bottom and wants confirmation of a base and sustained trend reversal before buying.
BTC WATCH
Bonds weak, long-term yields creeping higher.
Long-term Treasury yields are breaking out of a large monthly pattern, and the 30-year yield chart is pointing to an 8% move. Chris expects rates to keep creeping higher and bonds to weaken. He says he would steer clear of bonds or bet on falling bond prices, specifically mentioning TLT, as high rates also threaten borrowing tied to AI data centers.
TLT SHORT
US30Y LONG
S&P and Nasdaq uptrends have more upside.
The S&P 500 is digesting a breakout and has a daily setup pointing to roughly 8,100-8,200, while the weekly bull flag points to about 8,500. The Nasdaq has a similarly large bull flag pointing to roughly 18-20% upside. Long-term equity trends are up, and Chris says they own the S&P 500 and Nasdaq after re-entering a few weeks ago.
SPY LONG
QQQ LONG
HIGH
01:04
Aug 20
Aug 20
GLD
CCC-rated bonds
US Homebuilders
XLY 1ST
TLT 1ST
▾
MED
Treasury credit-crisis fears support gold.
She says she was tiptoeing back into gold and is happy she did. If the Treasury is worried that high long-end yields could deepen the credit crisis, that is good for gold as a safe haven even though it is not good for risk assets.
GLD LONG
Credit crisis pressures high-yield debt.
High rates are turbocharging the credit crisis. Triple-C bond yield spreads show clear stress, and heavy corporate issuance and refinancing are adding upward pressure to yields, making credit conditions worse.
CCC-rated bonds AVOID
High rates hurt housing and builders.
Interest-rate-sensitive housing is being harmed by high rates and lost full-time jobs. Home builders are offering record discounts, housing starts are at the lowest since 2022, apartment operators are offering record concessions, and pending home sales are near record lows.
US Homebuilders AVOID
Consumers lack discretionary purchasing power.
The country's largest retailers are saying consumers do not have the wherewithal for discretionary purchases and only have money for essentials, reflecting weak full-time job losses and high borrowing costs.
XLY AVOID
Weak data may spark Treasury rally.
If weak labor market reports and core inflation misses continue, the narrative may flip to when the Fed will cut rates. In an easing environment with the Treasury running an Operation Twist-like buyback, there could be a real rally across the Treasury curve.
TLT LONG
MED
20:06
Aug 19
Aug 19
COPPER
GLD
SILVER 1ST
GDX
GDXJ
▾
HIGH
Copper leads mid-cycle with tight supply.
Copper is entering the middle of the commodity cycle where it historically leads and outperforms gold. Despite all-time highs, copper has lagged gold for two years, and the supply picture is tight 3-5 years out because projects take years to build and production disappointments are common, leaving insufficient copper to meet demand.
COPPER LONG
Gold benefits from monetary easing and deficits.
Gold has been rising despite a strong dollar, higher yields, and higher oil, which signals fundamental fragility and foreshadows monetary easing or yield curve control. Persistent fiscal deficits, currency devaluation, and continued central bank and Tether buying support the gold bull market.
GLD LONG
Silver participation signals powerful precious metals rally.
Silver has moved up with gold and on some timeframes has outperformed gold. The participation of the more speculative metal and junior miners is a sign of a very positive precious metals market.
SILVER LONG
Gold stocks are cheap and underowned.
Investors need to be in gold and gold stocks. Gold miners have nine consecutive quarters of increasing free cash flow, huge margins, and valuations near long-term lows, yet institutional and generalist investors have not yet flooded in. He has been buying the sector heavily.
GDX LONG
GDXJ LONG
Long-dated Treasuries lack real buyers.
Real buy-and-hold buyers for 20- and 30-year Treasuries are fading. Foreign participation is increasingly hedge funds trading rather than pension funds, insurers, or foreign governments, and higher yields reflect underlying market weakness. The Treasury is intervening because demand is falling more than supply.
TLT AVOID
Brixton's high-grade silver drill results worth watching.
Brixton Metals' Langis silver project in Ontario returned exceptional high-grade drill results, including 20 meters grading 5.15 g/t silver and a 65-meter interval grading 89,125 g/t silver. With drilling continuing and silver above $60, it is becoming a silver story worth watching toward a potential resource.
BBB.V WATCH
BBBXF WATCH
Agnico Eagle combines huge margins, cheap valuation.
Agnico Eagle, the second-largest gold miner, has all-in sustaining costs around $1,549 with gold above $4,000, producing unprecedented margins. The stock's valuation is closer to long-term lows than to averages, making it a standout among the big miners.
AEM LONG
HIGH
21:07
Aug 18
Aug 18
DBC 1ST
GDX
Equities
GLD FLIP
XLRE 1ST
▾
HIGH
Stagflation bullish for unprintable real assets
Lobo's stagflation outlook, driven by weakening labor conditions, the oil squeeze, deficit spending and sticky inflation, makes him bullish on anything governments cannot print: monetary metals, real estate and other commodities should rise at least nominally in fiat terms.
DBC LONG
XLRE LONG
Not chasing gold/silver rebound; bottom unproven
Lobo has not bought the current gold/silver rebound and is not chasing gold and silver mining stocks after the sharp rally. He argues a 10% bounce does not prove the bottom is in, cites post-2011 bear-market rallies that were head fakes, and says media excitement plus crowded momentum is not a contrarian buying opportunity.
GDX AVOID
GLD AVOID
SILVER AVOID
Higher risk-free rates make equities unattractive
If the risk-free rate spikes, the case for buying equities and risk assets erodes. Lobo says investors worried about rising yields should focus on how long the stock market rally can continue against higher rates.
Equities AVOID
Oil stays higher on Hormuz bottleneck
Oil is likely to stay higher for longer because there is no near-term alternative to the Strait of Hormuz for GCC oil exports. The Iraq-Syria pipeline is years and billions away, and even a ceasefire would not quickly restore the required oil flows. Even current oil prices create stagflationary knock-on effects.
WTI LONG
Hold years of expenses in physical bullion
Lobo treats physical gold and silver bullion as savings and insurance rather than speculation. He recommends a prudent position of at least one year of living expenses in physically controlled bullion, and ideally two to three years for comfort, because bullion can be liquidated in an emergency while real estate cannot.
GOLD LONG
SILVER LONG
Copper long-term demand supports bullishness
Near term, copper has a dangerous binary tariff catalyst. Inventories are moving to the US ahead of possible Trump copper tariffs, and last year a tariff announcement that excluded key copper forms caused copper to fall sharply. Chasing all-time highs here is risky because copper could go either way.
COPPER LONG
Uranium spot should catch contract price upward
The uranium setup is attractive because spot uranium has been unusually lagging the climbing long-term contract price, and historically spot catches up and overshoots. Uranium stocks move with leverage to spot, so a spot up-move could drive significant stock gains. Reactor buildouts and US policy support the story without needing AI hype.
Uranium Stocks LONG
URA LONG
HIGH
01:44
Aug 18
Aug 18
GLD
SPY
HKD 1ST
FXY
TLT
▾
HIGH
Gold secular bull market, $6,000 target.
Gold has finished its consolidation and is rising; Hanke holds a secular bull market view and reiterated his public target of about $6,000 per ounce, saying he remains on board with that call.
GLD LONG
Higher long yields are stock headwind.
If the 30-year Treasury yield rises as he expects, it is an obvious headwind for the stock market.
SPY AVOID
Hong Kong dollar currency board unbreakable.
Hong Kong survived the Asian financial crisis intact because its currency board fixes the Hong Kong dollar to the U.S. dollar with 100% US-dollar backing and no discretionary monetary policy. That structure is impossible to blow up: reserves match liabilities, arbitrage stabilizes demand, and no currency board has ever failed historically.
HKD LONG
Yen intervention failed; yen keeps weakening.
The July 31 joint US-BOJ yen intervention caused only a dead-cat bounce and did not change the fundamentals: Japan's M2 money supply growth is very slow, nominal GDP growth is weak, and a rising fiscal deficit plus the highest advanced-economy debt/GDP ratio add further pressure. Short sellers remain, and unless fundamentals change the yen will keep depreciating and authorities may have to intervene again.
FXY SHORT
30-year Treasury yields can surge higher.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield can rise at least 50 basis points from current levels because war disruptions in Iran/Gulf/Red Sea are supply shocks, U.S. inflation is still not contained, and the U.S. fiscal deficit forces heavy Treasury issuance. These factors outweigh any yen-intervention indirect yield control.
TLT SHORT
HIGH
17:04
Aug 17
Aug 17
SHOP 1ST
APP 1ST
BW 1ST
AVGO 1ST
WIX 1ST
▾
HIGH
Shopify shows strong performance with blowout earnings.
Added to Shopify, which has had blowout earnings over the last couple of quarters and finally rallied after its most recent good earnings report.
SHOP LONG
AppLovin has significant upside despite near-term choppiness.
AppLovin is a wonderful company that still has about 50% upside and could easily reach $500 over the next two years, despite near-term choppiness and concerns about revenue deceleration.
APP LONG
Power infrastructure benefits from data center demand.
Benefiting from the AI and data center trends, Babcock and Wilcox preferred shares basically doubled and the stock was up 40%.
BW LONG
AI compute race drives infrastructure demand.
The AI race is creating a mad dash for compute, leading to continued high demand for high bandwidth memory (HBM), energy/grid connections, liquid cooling, advanced GPUs, custom silicon, and Broadcom products, despite the eventual symmetric risk of overbuilding.
AVGO LONG
HBM LONG
Heavily shorted software names offer contrarian upside.
Software names were heavily shorted by hedge funds as a hedge against long AI stocks, leading to systematic selling. Bought names like DataDog, Wix, ServiceNow, and Snowflake as contrarian bets with strong moats.
WIX LONG
DDOG LONG
NOW LONG
SNOW LONG
Memory stocks offer value after recent sell-offs.
Memory names were trading at very low multiples (e.g., four times earnings) during the July sell-off, presenting a good short-term trading opportunity.
000660.KS LONG
NANYA LONG
DRAM ETF LONG
Gold miners benefit from peaking real rates.
The gold miner space is attractive as real rates have temporarily peaked. Specific names like AGI are set to ramp production, while others like Barrick and Agnico Eagle are also strong holdings alongside physical gold and silver.
PHYS LONG
AGI LONG
B LONG
Kinross Gold LONG
AEM LONG
WBD merger arb offers a 19% spread.
The Warner Brothers spread is one of the big merger arb spreads in the market, offering a 19% cash deal spread that is expected to go through antitrust and close next year.
WBD LONG
NSC UNP merger arb offers 12.5% spread.
Long the NSC UNP spread, which offers a 12.5% spread on the merger arb side.
UNP LONG
NSC LONG
High-quality mortgage originator offers sustainable dividend yield.
Redwood was bought during an index rebalancing sell-off driven by interest rate fears. It is a well-run business doing high-quality mortgage origination and securitization for high-FICO individuals, offering a sustainable 15% dividend yield.
RWT LONG
AI cloud providers see massive revenue growth.
Bought Nebius and CoreWeave as GPU lease rates went up during the AI sell-off. Both companies crushed earnings, with Nebius showing massive revenue growth, positive operating cash flow, and strong customer prepayments for future capacity.
NEBIUS LONG
CoreWeave LONG
Hyperscalers face risks from massive AI CapEx.
While still liking Google, Microsoft, and Amazon, investors must be careful as these are no longer capital-light businesses. They are burning cash flow on massive AI CapEx, which the market is beginning to penalize.
MSFT WATCH
GOOG WATCH
AMZN WATCH
Expect a short-term rally before pre-election caution.
The market is in a short-term Goldilocks environment with a temporary peak in the 10-year yield, supporting a rally for a few weeks. However, caution is warranted going into the November midterm elections due to potential re-escalation in Iran and new tariffs.
SPY WATCH
Long-term rates are expected to stabilize.
Bought TLT as long-term rates are expected to stay flat or go down a little bit, with no big 10-year spike expected unless there is a massive escalation in the war.
TLT LONG
Uber is cheap and generates massive cash.
Uber is very cheap, trading at 12 times forward earnings after a 30% drawdown. It is expected to generate $10 billion in free cash flow this year and grow to $15 billion by 2028, making it a strong long-term buy despite autonomous driving risks.
UBER LONG
Sold Atlassian due to software sector volatility.
Sold Atlassian to take gains after a volatile period, as there is a lack of confidence to own software in the same size as before due to the choppiness and AI-related shorting pressure.
TEAM AVOID
Geopolitics drive defense and sovereign supply chains.
A defense super cycle and geopolitical realignment will drive global defense spending. Governments will subsidize domestic production in critical sectors like rare earths, energy storage, and semiconductors to build sovereign supply chains.
REMX LONG
ICLN LONG
ITA LONG
SMH LONG
AI data centers drive sustained power demand.
The AI pivot from chip hype to power and ROI highlights the energy and grid bottleneck. Power companies like VST, battery infrastructure, and co-location companies will see sustained demand because data centers need power every year.
VST LONG
HIGH
00:03
Aug 16
Aug 16
QQQ
XLK 1ST
GLD 1ST
WMB 1ST
MAIN 1ST
▾
HIGH
Expect eventual 70% Nasdaq crash.
He warns that this golden era of technology will likely end in a big bubble and could produce a Nasdaq-style 70% collapse like 2000-2003 once the boom reaches a plateau, though he does not think the market is there yet.
QQQ WATCH
Tech bull only halfway, buy XLK.
Mark Skousen says the 2020s are a replay of the roaring 1920s and the technology bull market is only halfway; AI, space technology, drones and defense spending are booming, and he recommends XLK, the technology ETF, expecting the sector to take off again after floundering.
XLK LONG
Gold as inflation and crisis hedge.
He views gold as the critical long-term inflation signal and a refuge for a Treasury/debt crisis; it is near its 200-day moving average and would likely keep rising if it breaks higher, central banks are buying gold aggressively, and he previously predicted $5,000 gold.
GLD LONG
Likes energy stocks EPD and WMB.
He says he likes energy stocks such as Enterprise Products and Williams Companies as good holdings for his diversified portfolio to stay ahead of the market in a persistent inflation environment.
WMB LONG
EPD LONG
MAIN favored unique monthly dividend.
He recommends Main Street Capital (MAIN) as one of his favorite income stocks because it is the only stock in the entire universe that pays both a monthly and a quarterly dividend, and it fits his diversified portfolio for staying ahead of inflation.
MAIN LONG
S&P won't crash without crisis.
David Lin argues that the S&P 500 only corrects 40-50% during crises or external shocks, and that the market will not self-correct more than 20% just because investors think it is overvalued; therefore a major correction beyond 20% is unlikely absent a financial crisis or global shutdown.
SPY WATCH
US Treasuries vulnerable to rate shock.
He warns the US is headed for a crisis because Treasury must refinance about $7 trillion annually and interest on the debt now exceeds defense spending; if buyers shun Treasuries, the Treasury may have to raise rates dramatically, with the 30-year bond already above 5% signaling rate pressure.
TLT WATCH
HIGH
19:11
Aug 14
Aug 14
SPY FLIP
EWY 1ST
BTC
IBIT
XRP 1ST
▾
HIGH
S&P 500 hits 8,100-8,200 by year-end.
Near-term charts point higher; weak retail sales, weakening jobs and stable-but-elevated inflation reduce Fed rate-hike odds, supporting risk assets. He targets S&P 500 around 8,100-8,200 by year-end, then expects serious trouble in early 2027.
SPY LONG
KOSPI and semiconductors rally on Fed cuts.
Weakening economic data shifted Fed expectations from hikes to stationary policy and potential cuts in 2027, which means cheaper money and risk-on flows, leading KOSPI/South Korean stocks and semiconductors back to rallying.
EWY LONG
SMH LONG
Bitcoin near-term rally to $70,000-$75,000.
Bitcoin's breakout has been weak but it remains above the trend line, giving a near-term bullish bias. He expects the president to push crypto clarity legislation before the midterms to win crypto voters, which could produce a 10-15% rally toward $70,000-$75,000, maybe $80,000. He also owns IBIT for exposure.
BTC LONG
IBIT LONG
XRP wedge breakout; holds for upside.
He holds XRP because the chart shows a major wedge pattern breakout against the dollar, and he is looking for a catalyst; it is one of his current crypto positions.
XRP LONG
Wait for semi retracements, then short.
He still sees more near-term upside in semiconductor names, but is waiting for Micron and SanDisk to retrace 61.8% Fibonacci of their recent roughly 40% falls, and is watching SK hynix for a larger bounce, before loading shorts in the AI/semiconductor space.
MU WATCH
SNDK WATCH
000660.KS WATCH
Watch 10-year yield above 5%.
He says the key danger level is above 5% on the 10-year Treasury yield; at that point higher rates become truly scary because mortgage/housing pressure and interest costs on $40 trillion debt can stress the whole economy, while the bond market rather than the Fed takes control.
10-Year Treasury Yield WATCH
Buy gold pullbacks; target $13,000 by 2029-2031.
Gold has broken out of a large wedge, is making higher lows and higher highs, and should be bought on pullbacks toward $3,900-$4,000. Debt and macro negatives support gold, and he calculates a $13,000 target by 2029-2031.
GLD LONG
HIGH
15:01
Aug 14
Aug 14
KSCP 1ST
▾
HIGH
Autonomous security force combines tech and humans.
The Event Risk acquisition adds human security agents to Knightscope's technology stack and creates cross-selling opportunities: technology clients can add human agents, and security-force clients can add robots; Li says the combined 434-client base represents billions in security spend, with top five clients around $850 million annually.
KSCP LONG
HIGH
21:35
Aug 13
Aug 13
WTI
▾
HIGH
Hormuz oil supply remains constrained
Plans to bypass the Strait of Hormuz with pipelines through the UAE will not work soon because construction would take far too long and many exports like fertilizers and chemicals cannot be moved by pipeline. The Strait will remain strategically important for a long time, even though the Persian Gulf's share of world oil has declined from around 40% to 21-22% as Brazil, the US, and other producers pump more.
WTI WATCH
HIGH
16:32
Aug 13
Aug 13
COPPER
SILVER
AI value chain
PALL FLIP
FXY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Copper poised for vertical moonshot.
Copper is in a hockey-stick chart setup and is headed for a vertical moonshot because electrification, AI buildout, re-industrialization and the need for far more electricity all require copper, while new copper mines take 10-20 years to build and supply is already too tight.
COPPER LONG
Buy gold and silver for inflation protection.
Gold and silver are good as long-term savings and inflation hedges at these prices, especially with future money printing likely to cause elevated inflation; he supports dollar-cost averaging into gold and silver for savers, but does not expect a speculative parabolic run to $8,000 by Christmas.
SILVER LONG
GLD LONG
AI value chain will go nuts.
The entire AI value chain is going to go nuts because AI is fundamentally energy plus hardware; the buildout spans hardware, energy, data centers and financing, so investors should follow the whole chain from the trunk down through the roots.
AI value chain LONG
Platinum interesting; palladium not interesting.
Among precious metals, platinum is looking interesting and he would get into investment platinum, while palladium is not looking interesting.
PALL AVOID
PPLT LONG
Yen chart is bearish.
The Japanese yen had an intervention spike but is now floating down, which is a bearish chart pattern; he sees yen weakness rather than a sustained rally.
FXY SHORT
Watch semiconductor range breakout direction.
Semiconductors rebounded sharply but the chart looks like a possible bull trap near the top of a range; he would not buy now but would watch whether the index breaks above the range and heads higher or breaks down and drops significantly.
SMH WATCH
Bitcoin breakdown could target under 40,000.
Bitcoin is boring and repeatedly subject to theft, making it unsafe to hold; he would watch the current range, with a breakdown likely sending it under $40,000 and a breakout open-ended.
BTC WATCH
AI financiers earn huge infrastructure fees.
Goldman Sachs and other leading underwriters and asset managers — Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield and KKR — are positioned to benefit from Nvidia's AI compute infrastructure partnerships; they are involved in funding $500 billion of third-party capital and could earn about 7% of that, roughly $35 billion.
GS LONG
APO LONG
BLK LONG
BX LONG
BEP LONG
KKR LONG
Energy and oil will get more expensive.
Long term, all energy will become much more expensive, and oil will rise because supply is finite and cannot be produced fast enough; electricity will be redirected toward re-industrialization and AI, encouraging continued use of petrol and diesel.
WTI LONG
XLE LONG
Liquidity injections keep pushing equities higher.
Massive liquidity injections from the Treasury and M2 expansion, needed for AI buildout, onshoring and re-industrialization, repeatedly rescue markets and push asset prices higher; the S&P 500 is in a long-term straight-line uptrend, and after the latest liquidity injection he is very long equities and expects the market to break higher.
SPY LONG
Commodity vertical cycles are starting.
The cycle of commodity verticals has already begun because physical commodities, machinery, sheds, cables and other real assets were discounted for years and are now being reshored to America, while much of the supply base remains concentrated in China.
DBC LONG
HIGH
21:04
Aug 12
Aug 12
SMH 1ST
XLP
XLV 1ST
XLY 1ST
USD/JPY
▾
HIGH
Sell the semiconductor AI dead cat bounce.
The recent violent rebound in semiconductors, memory, and the AI trade is a dead cat bounce after the July waterfall. Positioning was record crowded, retail call buying hit all-time highs, major hedge funds took large July losses and face redemption requests, so institutions are using the bounce to sell into retail strength. Most semis and memory names have not made new highs, and revenue/earnings expectations are at extremes similar to 2022 and 2000.
SMH AVOID
Buy consumer staples, healthcare, and discretionary.
Consumer confidence is starting to turn up from multi-decade or all-time lows, unemployment is still only 4%, and energy prices are rangebound. Defensive areas such as consumer staples and healthcare are washed out, while consumer discretionary is at roughly 10-year relative lows versus the S&P 500 and has a very low bar. He recommends a barbell of defensive consumer and offensive consumer exposure.
XLP LONG
XLV LONG
XLY LONG
Short USD/JPY for stronger yen, weaker dollar.
The US and Japan are now aligned, and the yen will either naturally or through intervention stabilize and appreciate relative to the dollar over the next couple of years. The carry trade is already being mitigated, and he wants to play a weaker dollar and stronger yen despite short-term countertrend moves.
USD/JPY SHORT
Buy Diageo as safe consumer staples turnaround.
Diageo is the premier high-end spirits and Guinness beer purveyor, cut in half from 2021 highs but still generating about $3 billion in free cash flow and growing double digits outside the US. The turnaround under CEO Dave Lewis is fixing the tequila problem. It has 13.4% ROIC, offers a margin of safety, and AI should help margins rather than disintermediate the business.
DEO LONG
Buy Disney for experiences and IP monetization.
Disney is a cheap long-term consumer discretionary play. The parks are packed, the new CEO comes from the high-ROIC experiences side, streaming is now free-cash-flow positive, ESPN is valuable, box office is strong, and the company is monetizing its IP library through parks and cruise ships.
DIS LONG
Avoid software due to AI disintermediation risk.
Software is cheap and some names may be generational buys, but AI could fully disintermediate many software business models within five years. Because he cannot be certain there will not be capital impairment, he keeps software in the too-hard box.
IGV AVOID
Buy Dentsply Sirona for defensive healthcare turnaround.
Dentsply Sirona is a defensive healthcare company and the largest supplier of dental supplies since the late 1800s. The stock was hit by bad management, but management used a large portion of tariff refunds to buy back stock in the hole, signaling they believe the shares are cheap.
XRAY LONG
HIGH
17:04
Aug 12
Aug 12
GLD 1ST
SPY
ETH 1ST
CAT 1ST
MU
▾
HIGH
Fiat debasement and yield capping drive gold.
Fiat money is being debased by 8% to 9% a year based on M2 growth, and the Bretton Woods system is over. Gold is in a secular bull market and is projected to reach $9,000 as authorities are forced to cap yields and monetize debt.
GLD LONG
Supply-side policies and AI capex drive earnings.
The US is escaping secular stagnation through supply-side economic policies and an AI-driven capex boom that will drive real economic growth. The S&P 500 is expected to reach 10,000 next year based on $440 in earnings, and potentially 14,000 to 15,000 by the 2028 election.
SPY LONG
Wall Street is adopting Ethereum alongside Bitcoin.
Wall Street is coalescing around a select few crypto winners as the world transitions into the digital age, with Ethereum being one of the primary beneficiaries alongside Bitcoin.
ETH LONG
Buy high-quality large caps and rotate capital.
Investors should avoid getting too fancy and instead buy big, high-quality names across sectors, such as Caterpillar, Microsoft, and Corning, rotating capital as charts dictate.
CAT LONG
MSFT LONG
GLW LONG
Micron is likely to double from here.
Despite being a high-beta play in the broader AI and semiconductor boom, Micron is likely to double from its current levels as the market continues its upward trajectory.
MU LONG
NVDA and AVGO pulled back to support.
Nvidia and Broadcom present interesting buying opportunities because their charts have pulled back to their upward-sloping 200-day exponential moving averages.
NVDA LONG
AVGO LONG
Yield curve control drives silver prices higher.
Silver is participating in the debasement trade alongside gold and Bitcoin, benefiting from implicit yield curve control as authorities step in to cap rising interest rates.
SILVER LONG
Perfect scarcity makes Bitcoin a debasement hedge.
Bitcoin benefits from perfect scarcity and inelastic supply. Smart money and whales are accumulating it while weak hands have exited. It is poised for a massive run driven by fiat debasement, structural demand, the four-year cycle, and a positive ISM business cycle.
BTC LONG
HIGH
21:44
Aug 11
Aug 11
WTI
MTDR
RIG
HL 1ST
TLT
▾
HIGH
Massive short squeeze setup in crude oil.
Massive speculative short-position build-up in crude oil (480 million barrels, top 10% historically) is suppressing price. Strategic petroleum reserves are running low globally, and China has pulled back imports but will soon need to return to the market. An eventual unwind of these shorts, alongside supply tightness from Strait of Hormuz disruptions and lost US influence in the Middle East, could spark a sharp rally.
WTI LONG
Energy stocks are cheap and underowned.
Oil and gas companies across the value chain are cheap on a relative basis (7–8x earnings), with solid dividends and strong numbers. Fossil fuel avoidance by many investors is creating a valuation anomaly. The entire energy sector (producers, midstream, service companies, drillers) benefits from looming supply tightness.
MTDR LONG
RIG LONG
SLB LONG
APA LONG
CVX LONG
Precious metals and miners are cheap again.
Gold and silver miners corrected 35–40% earlier this year and have been replenished at much cheaper prices over the last six weeks. Gold around $4,000–4,300 is poised to do well in the second half of 2026. Silver, gold miners, and royalty companies offer attractive value after the correction.
HL LONG
GLD LONG
SLV LONG
AEM LONG
AGI LONG
EQX LONG
FNV LONG
Avoid long-duration US Treasuries.
The US Treasury is losing control of the long end of the yield curve due to heavy issuance and fiscal mismanagement. Bond market participants do not trust the US government for 30-year financing. Rising long-end yields will pressure long-duration bond prices, making 30-year paper unattractive.
TLT AVOID
Commodity supercycle demands hard asset exposure.
Broad commodities are entering a decade-long cycle of hard assets. The US is critically behind on many essential minerals (copper, iron, tungsten, antimony). Investors are making a mistake by not holding a meaningful commodity allocation.
DBC LONG
LyondellBasell pays 5% and is turning around.
LyondellBasell offers a 5% dividend yield and is undergoing a successful turnaround with management changes. It represents an attractive value pick with income and recovery potential.
LYB LONG
Sell Microsoft after long-term gains.
After holding Microsoft for 14–15 years, the firm has been selling across most portfolios. The stock no longer offers compelling forward returns, and investors are blinded by big hyperscaler narratives, not thinking about the next 2–4 years.
MSFT AVOID
Visa and Mastercard look great again.
Visa and Mastercard are starting to look great again as investment opportunities, offering ways to diversify away from the crowd.
V LONG
MA LONG
Sell large-cap semiconductor stocks now.
Big-name semiconductors are feast-or-famine businesses that tend to give back all gains after big runs. The current level is a time to sell; those who don't will pay the price.
SOXX AVOID
Bristol-Myers is an attractive drug holding.
Bristol-Myers Squibb is a pharmaceutical holding the firm owns, presumably offering value or a catalyst on the drug side.
BMY LONG
Uranium supply gap makes it a top pick.
The US is extremely dependent on foreign uranium, consuming ~50M lbs annually while producing only ~2.5M lbs. Uranium is the top critical mineral the US desperately needs more of, setting up a strong demand-supply imbalance.
URA LONG
Prefer short-term Treasuries over long bonds.
The firm has not owned long-duration US Treasuries for years and remains short duration. Short-end yields are decent, state-tax-free, and offer better risk/reward as the Treasury loses control of the long end amid fiscal mistrust. Staying short avoids duration risk from rising long-end yields.
SHY LONG
HIGH
21:30
Aug 10
Aug 10
COPPER 1ST
CGNT
Colombia 1ST
LBCMF
▾
HIGH
Copper supercycle, massive supply deficit ahead.
A copper supercycle is already underway, driven by a severe supply deficit. Old mines are depleting, grades are declining, and new discoveries are scarce. At the same time, demand is surging from electrification, AI data centers, defense spending, and grid upgrades. The physical market is tightening faster than the paper market suggests, and China's control over smelting adds strategic squeeze. The speaker sees this as a multi-year bull case for copper prices.
COPPER LONG
Copper Giant undervalued, near-term catalysts.
Copper Giant (CGNT) is significantly undervalued relative to its resource and strategic position. The Mocoa deposit holds over 1 billion tons of near-surface copper in a mining-friendly jurisdiction. A new pro-mining Colombian government, a $31 million strategic financing with Daenerius Metals, an offtake agreement with Trafigura, and a two-year insider lockup signal strong confidence. An upcoming Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) will provide a net present value, acting as a major catalyst for re-rating the stock.
CGNT LONG
LBCMF LONG
Colombia to become hottest mining jurisdiction.
Colombia is poised to become the world's hottest new mining region within the next few years. The newly elected government is strongly pro-mining and pro-business, with a singular focus on economy and security. Colombia has been underexplored for decades despite sharing the same rich geology as Peru and Chile, and it offers superior infrastructure and lower elevation benefits. The alignment with the United States as a strategic ally further enhances the investment case.
Colombia LONG
HIGH
19:51
Aug 10
Aug 10
SPY
SMH 1ST
GLD FLIP
GDX 1ST
TLT 1ST
▾
HIGH
S&P 500 pullback 4-7% imminent
The S&P 500 has completed a wave-five thrust out of a triangle pattern but market breadth on this thrust is weak relative to price, and bullish sentiment has surged. This suggests the rally is nearing an end and a 4–7% pullback is developing in coming weeks.
SPY AVOID
Sell semiconductors, SMH to break 503 low
Bearish view on SMH as a retracement rally in a larger downtrend; even “sell into strength” is not an explicit short/puts/borrowed-stock trade.
SMH AVOID
Buy gold on pullbacks, target $4500-$4700
Gold is in a corrective wave-four retracement, not yet the start of the move above $6,000. A near-term high is approaching around $4,350–$4,400, after which a pullback will provide a buying opportunity for the next leg toward $4,575–$4,750. Longer-term, after a C-wave below $3,945, gold will make new all-time highs.
GLD LONG
Buy GDX on pullbacks, target 102-117
GDX formed a falling wedge and displayed a large positive RSI divergence near the $70 low. His call from $72–80 targets $88–91 and potentially $102, with a chance of new all-time highs above $117 if gold reaches higher targets. A near-term pullback is likely, and he would buy gold stocks on any dip over the next 1–2 weeks.
GDX LONG
Short Treasuries, yields to rise above 5%
Bearish/downside view on long-duration Treasuries as yields rise; no explicit short, puts, or actionable short trade.
TLT AVOID
HIGH
02:42
Aug 09
Aug 09
GDX 1ST
GLD FLIP
IGV 1ST
COPPER
SPY FLIP
▾
HIGH
Gold breakout with asymmetric upside setup
Gold and gold miners are breaking out from bearish trends with strong support and asymmetric upside potential. The dollar's sell-off is helping, and gold has made eight consecutive higher lows. The GDX chart shows a textbook asymmetric setup with heavy support at 75.32 and small resistance levels overhead, while gold's next major resistance is at 4572. Kevin is buying both gold and gold miners.
GDX LONG
GLD LONG
Software ETF IGV has bullish technicals
The software ETF IGV has a stronger algorithmic signal than semiconductors, with major support levels at 98.54 and 95.53 and no significant overhead resistance. It may benefit from mean reversion or rotation out of overbought semis. Kevin has been long IGV and remains bullish.
IGV LONG
Copper rally to persist with gold
Copper has performed very well, supported by supply constraints and demand from data centers and electrification. Kevin has been consistently long copper and expects it to continue doing well alongside gold.
COPPER LONG
SPY supported; buy dips for uptrend
The S&P 500 ETF SPY has heavy support at 751.32, an increasing momentum score, and an RSI of 63 (not overbought). With the market rally broadening and strong earnings, Kevin would be a buyer on dips and remains long SPY in retirement accounts.
SPY LONG
HIGH
23:00
Aug 07
Aug 07
SMH FLIP
SPY
TLT
XLF
XLV
▾
HIGH
Buy semiconductors on AI-driven dips
Semiconductors are a core AI beneficiary; pullbacks driven by AI disruption fears have historically provided good buying opportunities, and the sector remains attractive on dips.
SMH LONG
Roaring 2020s push S&P 500 higher
The roaring 2020s scenario remains intact, supported by a resilient economy, resilient consumers, strong capital spending, and the AI revolution. Record earnings momentum (FIMO) and expanding productivity will drive the S&P 500 to 8,250 by the end of the year and 10,000 by the end of the decade.
SPY LONG
Buy long-term Treasuries at 5% yield
Long-term U.S. Treasury yields are normalizing in a 4-5% range, and yields spiking toward 5% have historically attracted strong buyer interest, providing a buying opportunity for bond investors.
TLT WATCH
AI spending benefits financials sector
Financials are likely to benefit significantly from the surge in AI-related capital spending and broad economic growth, supporting an overweight positioning.
XLF LONG
AI boosts healthcare productivity and profits
Healthcare productivity is poor and AI can make a big difference, making the sector attractive; the firm recently added healthcare exposure.
XLV LONG
AI spending drives industrials sector growth
Industrials stand to gain from the wave of AI-driven capex and infrastructure buildout, warranting an overweight allocation.
XLI LONG
HIGH
20:39
Aug 07
Aug 07
GLD
SILVER
STLLR Gold
▾
HIGH
Bullish gold after descending top breakout.
Gold broke out above a descending top pattern from a base at $4,000, signaling a major shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish. The correction from the all-time high above $5,500 is likely over, with major support at $4,200 and next resistance at $4,400. He is tactically bullish short-term, though entry at current levels is tricky.
GLD LONG
Silver dip buy if support holds.
Silver also rallied but faces resistance at $63.30. If it retraces to support between $60.30 and $61 and holds, it would offer a buying opportunity on the dip. However, caution is warranted and he wants to see it hold that support before adding.
SILVER WATCH
STLLR Gold leveraged to rising gold prices.
STLLR Gold controls three major undeveloped Canadian gold projects. The Tower project alone could be worth $2.5 billion after tax at a $3,200 gold assumption, and its value increases with higher gold prices. The Colac project spans a large greenstone district, and the Holler Tailings cleanup could deliver near-term cash flow. With over 16 million ounces drilled, STLLR offers significant gold leverage.
STLLR Gold LONG
HIGH
18:10
Aug 07
Aug 07
FXY 1ST
TLT
XLE 1ST
GLD FLIP
WTI 1ST
▾
HIGH
Yen to strengthen as intervention fails.
The yen is expected to strengthen as the unprecedented US intervention to buy yen will likely fail because the yen carry trade remains profitable and fundamentals (interest rate differentials, demographics, oil imports) favor a weaker yen. When the intervention fails and the yen retraces its gains, a real panic will occur, forcing the yen higher as Japan cannot aggressively raise rates without making its banking system insolvent. Long yen after a dip.
FXY LONG
Buy Treasuries for flight to safety.
In phase two of the reverse carry trade, deleveraging will trigger a flight to safety, money will flow into US Treasuries, and yields will drop. While Treasuries have been a hated asset class and performed poorly for years, the contrarian trade is to allocate to duration for risk‑aversion. Long Treasuries as a risk‑off play.
TLT LONG
Bullish oil and energy on supply risks.
Upside surprises in oil are more likely than not because the Iran war is not ending quickly, there is a risk of Iran bombing its own oil fields to inflict economic pain on the US, and ongoing geopolitical tensions create constant supply‑shock risk. Oil could spike higher, providing positive tail risk. Bullish on oil and energy stocks.
XLE LONG
WTI LONG
Go long gold as safe haven.
Gold corrected, momentum traders were shaken out, and now gold behaves like a risk‑off asset again, rallying amid Japan carry‑trade concerns and geopolitical risks. Long gold as a safe haven for the reverse carry trade scenario.
GLD LONG
Avoid tech and S&P on regulation.
Technology, especially AI, is going to become one of the most regulated sectors after a likely scary AI incident in the next six months. Heavy regulation will hurt tech stock returns. The S&P 500 is essentially a tech/AI index, so investors should avoid both the tech sector and the S&P 500.
XLK AVOID
SPY AVOID
Rotate to small caps and international.
The best way to beat the S&P 500, which is heavily weighted toward tech and at risk from regulation, is to rotate into small‑cap stocks or international equities, both of which have been outperforming and offer non‑tech exposure.
IWM LONG
ACWX LONG
HIGH
00:35
Aug 07
Aug 07
FXY
SPY
TLT 1ST
▾
MED
Yen weakening despite intervention.
The monetary cycle mismatch between the Bank of Japan and other central banks is causing a yen squeeze that reverses the carry trade. If the Fed cuts rates, the narrowing interest rate differential is yen-supportive and could accelerate the reverse carry trade, leading to further deleveraging and market instability. The unwind is difficult to contain and may cause sharp equity selloffs.
FXY SHORT
Yen carry trade unwind accelerating.
The monetary cycle mismatch between the Bank of Japan and other central banks is causing a yen squeeze that reverses the carry trade. If the Fed cuts rates, the narrowing interest rate differential is yen-supportive and could accelerate the reverse carry trade, leading to further deleveraging and market instability. The unwind is difficult to contain and may cause sharp equity selloffs.
SPY WATCH
Japan selling Treasuries crashes US markets.
Japan is the largest holder of US Treasuries. To shore up the yen, Japan will need to sell US debt and buy yen, which will cause US bond prices to fall and the stock market to crash. Even if Japan does not tighten enough, a yen crash will crash the Japanese bond market, hurting US bonds. Either scenario is bearish for US Treasuries and equities.
TLT SHORT
MED
20:28
Aug 06
Aug 06
SMH
XLK 1ST
WTI FLIP
GLD
TLT
▾
HIGH
Semiconductors poised for explosive catch-up rally
Semiconductors and tech sector are lagging due to recent volatility and investor nervousness after AI pullback, but once the NASDAQ breaks out to all-time highs, they could see a massive catch-up rally. Semiconductors could move 30-50% as the last euphoric wave sucks in retail money. Short covering has already started.
SMH LONG
XLK LONG
Oil heading to $100 per barrel
Oil has completed an ABC correction that is a bullish cleansing event. Fibonacci extensions and the ongoing Iran/Israel war point to oil moving to $100 per barrel. Higher oil will keep inflation and rates elevated.
WTI LONG
Precious metals in bear market, avoid
Gold, silver, and miners are in a technical bear market, with long-term moving averages pointing down, a series of lower highs and lower lows, and overall bearish price action. The current bounce is likely a bear market trap and should be avoided until a true trend reversal confirms.
GLD AVOID
SILVER AVOID
GDX AVOID
Long bonds face 50% downside risk
Long-dated Treasury bonds (TLT) are set to struggle as yields on the 5-, 10-, and 30-year are pointing towards 8%. Higher oil prices will push yields even higher, and TLT could fall from around $82 to $40, a 50% haircut. Bonds should be avoided or shorted.
TLT AVOID
US Dollar in confirmed bull market
The US Dollar Index is in a bull market, breaking above key highs with the long-term moving average sloping upward, making a series of higher highs and higher lows. This dollar strength is a headwind for precious metals.
DXY LONG
Cybersecurity ETF is overbought and crowded
The cybersecurity sector ETF (HACK) has had three explosive surges, huge volume, and signs of exhaustion. It is overcrowded and emotional, usually a precursor to a sharp crack and bearish reversal pattern. It is a crowded trade near a turning point.
HACK AVOID
Broad stock indices breaking to new highs
The S&P 500 and NASDAQ have put in a cycle low, formed bullish bull flag patterns, and are pointing to much higher prices. Equal-weighted and small/micro-cap indices are also breaking to all-time highs, confirming a broad market rally. The S&P 500 target is approximately 8,500-8,555, and the NASDAQ has an 18% upside potential. This could lead to a euphoric phase sucking in more investors.
QQQ LONG
SPY LONG
HIGH
17:13
Aug 06
Aug 06
JGBUX
TLT
FXY
XLF
▾
HIGH
Japanese yields will fall, buy JGBs.
Japanese government bond yields are likely to fall because yields follow inflation, and Japan's inflation rate is only 1.6%, well below the 2% target. The low inflation is driven by anemic money supply growth of 2.2%, which will eventually pull yields lower, contrary to the recent spike in Japanese long-term rates.
JGBUX LONG
Avoid US long bonds, yields rising.
US long-term bond yields will keep rising because the money supply (Divisia M4) is accelerating rapidly, the war on Iran is creating risk and uncertainty, and the US fiscal deficit remains out of control. Bond vigilantes are returning, and the 10-year yield already exceeds Treasury Secretary Bessent's red line of 4.5%. Investors should not be long long-duration bonds because rising yields mean falling prices.
TLT AVOID
Yen weakness to persist on fundamentals.
The Japanese yen is likely to weaken further because of fundamental factors: Japan's money supply growth is too anemic at 2.2% (should be ~6% to hit the 2% inflation target), which caps nominal GDP and leads to low inflation, low interest rates, low economic growth, and a weak currency. Additionally, the prime minister's plans to increase military spending and expand the deficit add political and fiscal risk that further undermines the yen. The US-led intervention is just a dead-cat bounce and introduces a big-player element that will create more volatility but won't reverse the fundamental downtrend.
FXY SHORT
Stay long US financial stocks.
US financial stocks and banks are attractive based on recent history; bank profits have soared. Higher profits increase bank capital, giving them more capacity to lend, and ongoing deregulation is easing capital requirements, providing further tailwinds for the sector.
XLF LONG
HIGH
23:31
Aug 05
Aug 05
GDX
TLT
SPCX
TSLA
SMH
▾
HIGH
Gold and miners as reflation hedge.
Gold and gold miners are part of the reflation trade and serve as a hedge against rising rates and a potential tech fallout; real assets will outperform overvalued financial assets.
GDX LONG
GLD LONG
Short bonds on rising rates.
Rising interest rates and sticky inflation make shorting bonds attractive; the reflation environment will push bond yields higher and prices lower.
TLT SHORT
Overvalued IPO built to fail.
SpaceX is wildly overvalued with a $1.4T market cap on $32B annualized revenue, massive cash burn from AI spending, no profitability in sight, and a float set to increase 5x. The IPO is built to fail, and the stock is destined to get cut in half.
SPCX SHORT
Overvalued, best short in history.
Tesla is overvalued and, together with SpaceX, represents one of the best shorts at scale in the history of capital markets. He is short from 475.
TSLA SHORT
Cyclical overbuild, value destruction ahead.
Semiconductor stocks trade like shipping stocks—capital-intensive cyclical companies where current high margins and low PEs are unsustainable. Massive capex overbuild and Chinese competition will lead to value destruction.
SMH SHORT
Energy underowned, multi-year home run.
Energy stocks are a multi-year home run trade, up 30% YTD despite pullbacks, still only 3% of the S&P 500, underowned relative to tech, and set to benefit from reflation and supply constraints.
XLE LONG
Bulk shipping attractive supply-demand.
Bulk shipping is attractive due to strong demand, supply constraints, and high day rates that are generating enormous cash flows; the sector trades at depressed valuations similar to energy.
Shipping stocks LONG
Short CoreWeave as overvalued tech.
CoreWeave is an overvalued tech name and a short position used as a hedge against the AI trade unwind; part of the 'garbage' tech stocks that will decline sharply.
CoreWeave SHORT
Long financials in rotation from tech.
Financials are part of the non-tech value rotation that will outperform when the tech bubble bursts; owning them alongside shorts in tech yields strong returns.
XLF LONG
Long healthcare in rotation from tech.
Healthcare is a defensive non-tech sector that will benefit from a rotation out of overvalued technology; a key long in the pair trade against tech shorts.
XLV LONG
Copper as reflation commodity.
Copper is a reflation commodity play that will benefit alongside gold and energy from the long-term underinvestment in real assets and the energy transition.
COPPER LONG
Tech bubble, misallocation of capital.
Technology stocks broadly are in a bubble driven by AI hype, misallocation of capital, rising bond yields, and excessive speculation. Investors should run from tech stocks.
XLK SHORT
HIGH
16:59
Aug 05
Aug 05
COPPER
ALGRF
ALGR
▾
HIGH
Copper in long-term bull market.
Copper is in a longer-term bull market due to a real supply-demand imbalance. Future copper supply is located in remote, high-elevation, deep deposits that are subject to operational hiccups, and disruptions in top producer Chile support prices. Copper has not corrected despite weakness in precious metals and equities, reflecting strong fundamentals.
COPPER LONG
Adelita project offers significant copper discovery.
Algo Grande Copper owns the Adelita project in Sonora, Mexico, which hosts high-grade copper skarn mineralization with gold and silver credits. The project has significant scale potential, with a 2.5 km prospective corridor, satellite skarns, epithermal targets, and a possible porphyry at depth. Historical drilling was limited and unsophisticated; the company is now executing a larger-scale exploration program with oriented core and detailed magnetics, already discovering new high-grade horizons. The project is strategically located in a premier copper jurisdiction with excellent infrastructure and mining-friendly policies, and the company is fully funded to drill an 8,000 m program and follow-on phases.
ALGRF LONG
ALGR LONG
HIGH
22:37
Aug 04
Aug 04
DBA 1ST
SLV
CRAK 1ST
GLD
AMZN 1ST
▾
HIGH
Agricultural commodities will rise sharply.
Fertilizer shortages and high diesel prices will diminish crop production globally, leading to significantly higher agricultural and food prices.
DBA LONG
Gold and silver are bottoming out.
The precious metals selloff after the hawkish Fed chair nomination and Iran attack was politically driven; the market is now bottoming out, implying a recovery in gold and silver.
SLV LONG
GLD LONG
Diesel and jet fuel will surge.
The war in the Persian Gulf and global underinvestment in fossil fuels will cause diesel and jet fuel prices to rise significantly, with potential shortages, adversely affecting transportation and farming.
CRAK LONG
UCO LONG
AI data center capex is a bubble.
The massive AI data center capex by Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, projected at $725B in 2026, represents an irrational bubble fueled by artificially low interest rates; it will lead to entrepreneurial errors and unprofitable data centers.
AMZN AVOID
MSFT AVOID
META AVOID
GOOGL AVOID
US stock market is a bubble.
The U.S. stock market is in the end stage of a long and vast bubble, with near-zero real interest rates fueling a blowoff top; expected returns over the next 10 years are zero or negative, with a risk of a crash.
SPY AVOID
Bond returns will be negative real.
Real returns on both corporate and government bonds will be zero or negative over the next several years, with likely price decreases, making bonds unattractive.
TLT AVOID
IEF AVOID
Real estate prices likely to fall.
Real estate and land prices are likely to decrease, with low expected returns due to overinvestment, leading to a decline in transactions and values.
VNQ AVOID
HIGH
03:23
Aug 04
Aug 04
USD/JPY
10-Year US Treasury Note Futures
30-Year US Treasury Bond Futures
GLD
SILVER
▾
HIGH
Yen pullback imminent after parabolic rally.
The Japanese yen has gone up too fast parabolically after the recent intervention. Markets cannot sustain such vertical moves, and a substantial pullback is imminent in the short term, even if the longer-term trend remains up.
USD/JPY LONG
Short Treasuries, yields heading to 6%.
Strong demand for capital, bad debt, and widening bank spreads will push long-end interest rates much higher. He expects the 10-year yield to reach 6%, with bond futures declining to par. Looking to short 10-year and 30-year futures on any rally.
10-Year US Treasury Note Futures SHORT
30-Year US Treasury Bond Futures SHORT
Gold base and squeeze point to new highs.
Gold has already priced in higher interest rates and is building a solid base around $4,000. Despite reasons for it to fall, it holds, setting up a short squeeze and a breakout toward new highs, potentially above $4,800 by year-end.
GLD LONG
Buy silver at $55-$60 base.
Silver has found a solid base around $55-$60 after its earlier correction. This level is seen as a great entry point to become a buyer again, mirroring gold's base-building behavior.
SILVER LONG
Avoid US tech, still overvalued and falling.
The technology sector as a group remains overvalued, has not yet found a bottom, and has plenty of room to fall. It is not time to buy tech broadly.
XLK AVOID
Apple's dip may be an opportunity.
Apple has taken a hit, down about 12% from its recent high. As an individual name, it might be one to start looking at for a potential opportunity even though the broader tech group is unattractive.
AAPL WATCH
Sell crude oil rallies, target mid-$50s.
Crude oil is inflated by fear premiums, demand has fallen, and the futures curve shows $20 backwardation. He expects oil to trade back into the mid-50s by year-end and wants to sell rallies around $80-$85.
WTI SHORT
HIGH
20:51
Aug 03
Aug 03
XLF 1ST
XLV 1ST
XLP 1ST
SMH 1ST
XLE 1ST
▾
HIGH
Rotate from tech to financials, healthcare, staples.
Rotation out of overconcentrated tech into previously underperforming sectors as breadth improves; everything sold to buy tech is now outperforming. Relative strength is improving in financials, healthcare, and consumer staples.
XLF LONG
XLV LONG
XLP LONG
Reduce semiconductor exposure, extreme concentration risk.
Semiconductors are parabolically extended, hitting 22% of market weight vs 9% at dotcom peak; percent above 200-day MA mirrors dotcom extremes. Advises stepping outside the bounds and reducing exposure.
SMH AVOID
Energy sector strong, oil price supported.
Energy (XLE) has outperformed tech since COVID lows. XLE is above a 20-year base, companies are cash flow positive, and oil is unlikely to fall to $40. Fund flows into energy could drive significant gains.
XLE LONG
Bond yields rising, short US bonds.
Avoid TLT/long-duration bonds: speaker argues yields are moving higher, inflation/oil pressure keeps bonds unattractive, and absent equity weakness there is no forcing function into bonds; bearish view but no explicit short/puts/actionable short call.
TLT AVOID
Bullish on movie theater stocks.
Consumer spending is shifting to affordable experiences; movie theaters rank among the top-performing groups in relative strength rankings and he is explicitly bullish.
Movie theater stocks LONG
Favor insurance stocks with low AI exposure.
Insurance names with limited exposure to funding AI debt are attractive as the AI trade gets crowded; credit default swaps on AI-related names are rising, making insurers with less private debt/equity safer.
KIE LONG
European banks strong buy, multi-year outperformance.
European banks moved from negative to positive interest rates and have been outperforming for nearly five years. They remain a strong buy, including UBS and Deutsche Bank.
UBS LONG
DB LONG
EUFN LONG
Medical devices (IHI, MDT, ABT, BAX) outperforming.
Healthcare/medical devices are showing relative strength improvement as funds reduce tech weight. IHI, Medtronic, Abbott, and Baxter have started outperforming in the last month and a half and should continue.
MDT LONG
BAX LONG
ABT LONG
IHI LONG
Gold at support, watch for dollar weakness.
Gold is hanging around the $4,100 horizontal support level; if the dollar weakens, precious metals could rally. Watching this level with interest for a potential bottom.
GLD WATCH
Target outperforming Walmart and Costco.
Walmart and Costco had unfounded premium valuations; Target is significantly outperforming both over the last six months as the market rotates within consumer defensives.
TGT LONG
HIGH
19:58
Aug 02
Aug 02
COPPER
Copper mining equities
Colombia
CGNT
▾
HIGH
Structural copper deficit driving prices higher.
Copper is breaking out of its traditional Dr. Copper role because supply cannot respond to sustained demand from electrification, AI/data centers, and global infrastructure buildouts. Even at elevated prices, the industry is struggling to increase production, and the pipeline of new deposits is insufficient, meaning prices can only keep going up until that response is forced.
COPPER LONG
Rotation into copper equities is starting.
Copper equities have lagged the commodity price but a rotation is beginning. Generalist investors who previously ignored the sector are now paying attention, and as copper continues to perform, mining stocks with high operating leverage will eventually catch up and outperform.
Copper mining equities LONG
Colombia mining investment climate set to improve.
Colombia's newly elected right-wing president is implementing pro-mining policies, improving security coordination with the US, and appointing market-friendly officials. This is creating a political window that could dramatically improve the investment climate for the country's resource sector, with momentum building as the market becomes convinced.
Colombia WATCH
CGNT catalysts: PEA, drilling, Colombia turnaround.
Copper Giant (CGNT) offers a near-surface, billion-ton copper deposit in Colombia. With the election of a new pro-mining president, the political overhang is lifting. Upcoming catalysts include a preliminary economic assessment (PEA) by year-end, multiple drill programs, and a re-rating as the market recognizes the project's quality and jurisdiction improvement.
CGNT LONG
HIGH
21:31
Jul 31
Jul 31
SILVER 1ST
KOOYF 1ST
▾
HIGH
Bullish silver on macro and supply factors.
Gold coverage ratio of US debt implies dramatically higher gold prices, tightening the entire precious metals complex. After major geopolitical shocks, gold tends to perform well and silver follows then accelerates. Tariffs are viewed as sticky policy, driving a weaker dollar that is supportive for commodities and precious metals. Additionally, the global silver market has logged multiple consecutive years of structural deficit with further shortfalls projected.
SILVER LONG
Kootenay Silver undervalued vs peers, drill catalyst.
Kootenay Silver (KOOYF) is a silver pure play with four projects and high asset density. Prominent metals investor Eric Sprott owns about 4%. Management led by James Macdonald, who built Alamos Gold. Resource base includes approximately 223 million silver equivalent ounces measured and indicated plus about 111 million ounces inferred. Enterprise value per ounce of resources is about $0.36 versus a peer group average of $2.18. The company plans to drill roughly 70,000 meters over the next 12 months, translating to a market cap of about C$188 million or ~$2,570 per planned meter.
KOOYF LONG
HIGH
17:29
Jul 31
Jul 31
BTC FLIP
GLXY 1ST
GLD
SILVER 1ST
SOX
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin cycle turn, rally to 300K possible.
Bitcoin is consolidating around $60,000 with bears losing momentum and sentiment extremely bearish, making it a contrarian opportunity. The weekly chart is oversold and a four-year cycle turning point is expected between now and mid-October. If history repeats, even a weaker 5x rally from $60,000 could take Bitcoin to $300,000 over the next few years. Galaxy Digital is also showing relative strength and serves as a proxy play.
BTC LONG
Galaxy Digital outperforms Bitcoin, contrarian play.
Galaxy Digital has held up better than Bitcoin during the crypto downturn, rising 16% on the day of the interview. Its relative strength and volatility make it an interesting contrarian play on a potential crypto recovery, as it may benefit from an improving sentiment in the sector.
GLXY LONG
Gold rally to $4,500, bull intact.
Gold's 30% correction from $5,600 is healthy and necessary after an overbought rally. The weekly chart is oversold, and a bottom is forming near $4,000, a psychological support. A summer rally is likely with targets at the 50-day moving average (~4,180–4,250), the 200-day (~4,300–4,500), and eventually much higher prices in the secular bull market. Central bank buying and loss of fiat confidence support gold long term.
GLD LONG
Silver holds above $50, sees $100 again.
Silver broke out of a multi-year cup-and-handle pattern above $50 and has now corrected back toward that breakout level. The pullback into the $45–55 zone is a normal and healthy retest of former resistance as new support. As long as that range holds, silver will eventually resume its uptrend and reach $100 again, following gold higher but likely remaining muted until gold leads the next bull phase.
SILVER LONG
Semiconductor correction may become dip buy.
The semiconductor sector went parabolic and is now correcting sharply, which is normal after such a move. Many old-school tech stocks are already down heavily. If the pattern of past parabolic advances repeats, this pullback could turn into a buying-the-dip opportunity, though caution is warranted while the correction unfolds.
SOX WATCH
HIGH
22:31
Jul 30
Jul 30
WTI
COPPER
TLT
GLD
BTC
▾
HIGH
Oil to revert to production cost near $40
WTI crude oil faces a 20-year trend of lower highs and lower lows. The US has become a net energy exporter, making OPEC increasingly redundant. Technology (EVs, efficiency) and demographics are crushing long-term demand, while average US production cost is around $55/bbl. Supply shocks are temporary; the price will revert to the cost of production, likely $40, as macro risks tilt toward deflation.
WTI SHORT
Copper drops with equities; hedge funds long
Copper is a sock puppet to the S&P 500 with a historically high correlation. Hedge funds are heavily long (30% of open interest vs 5% average). If the stock market drops even 10%, copper will likely fall 10-20% or more. The next big risk is mean reversion pulling copper down to $4-5/lb, exacerbated by China's deflationary bond yields and Trump's need for lower commodity prices.
COPPER SHORT
Bonds provide positive carry and equity hedge
The 30-year Treasury bond yield at 5.2% is the highest in 19 years, offering a positive carry put on the stock market with no decay. Historically extreme yield advantage over gold and equities, and a reallocation out of non-income assets like Bitcoin and precious metals into bonds is underway. If stocks drop, bond yields will fall and bond prices will rise, providing alpha.
TLT LONG
Gold overvalued, set for mean reversion drop
Gold has reached extreme highs vs the S&P 500, vs Treasuries, and vs its 60-month moving average, similar to 1980 and 2011 peaks. It faces headwinds from elevated bond yields, high volatility, and a newly elevated correlation to equities. If the stock market corrects, gold will fall as part of the metals complex mean-reverting. It could drop back to its long-term moving average around $3,000/oz.
GLD SHORT
Bitcoin bear market, heading to $10,000
Bitcoin is already in a bear market, failing to rally even with stocks up. It flunked the test as a leading indicator and will decline further when equities correct. The proliferation of thousands of competing tokens, the end of its peer-to-peer cash narrative, and the massive supply overhang from ETF buyers trapped at higher prices will force a purge. He maintains a long-standing call for Bitcoin to drop to $10,000.
BTC SHORT
Stock market extreme, correction likely
The stock market is at an extreme, with S&P 500 cap-to-public-debt ratios and valuations near 19-year highs, while volatility is at multi-decade lows. A midterm election year correction is very common, and rising bond yields are competing with equities. A drop in the S&P 500 could start a 'trade of a lifetime' as it triggers a deflationary reset across commodities and risk assets. Volatility is set to pick up in the second half.
SPY SHORT
HIGH
16:49
Jul 30
Jul 30
GDX 1ST
URA 1ST
SILVER 1ST
COPPER 1ST
DBB 1ST
▾
HIGH
Mining stocks surge in catch-up mode
Gold and silver mining stocks are a timing tool; they are not buy-and-hold but can build wealth very rapidly when the metals are in catch-up mode. With gold between $4,000 and $5,000, even junior explorers can generate extraordinary margins. Now is that time to be involved in the sector.
GDX LONG
Uranium renaissance driven by AI power demand
Uranium offers the most certain supply-demand upside among energy metals. A nuclear renaissance, small modular reactors, and the massive power needs of AI data centers all ensure growing demand against constrained supply. He categorizes uranium as a set-it-and-forget-it investment for 3–5 years.
URA LONG
Silver leverages gold bull run
Silver is a traditional lever to gold bull markets and had lagged significantly while gold soared, offering a low-risk entry. Now it is catching up and can build wealth incredibly quickly alongside gold as monetary metals benefit from currency debasement.
SILVER LONG
Copper supply deficit drives prices above $8
Copper faces steep supply deficits for years driven by electrification, grid buildout, EV adoption, and now AI data centers (copper is ~6% of data center cost). Substitution is almost impossible and bringing new mines online takes 15–20 years. Prices will rise to above $8/lb within a few years, making copper a set-it-and-forget-it long-term play.
COPPER LONG
Broad commodity bull market underway
There is a concurrent broad commodity bull market across base metals, battery metals, and other resources due to decades of underinvestment and supply constraints colliding with rising demand from electrification and infrastructure buildout.
DBB LONG
LIT LONG
Gold bull market driven by debt trap
Gold is in a bull market driven initially by massive central bank buying and now by western investors, but the underlying driver is a US debt trap forcing currency depreciation and eventual negative real rates. The Fed cannot afford to hike rates and will ultimately allow inflation to run above interest rates. Gold will advance against fiat currencies over the long term, and he sees a year-end price of $4,400–$4,600.
GLD LONG
HIGH
05:39
Jul 30
Jul 30
WTI 1ST
QQQ 1ST
KBE 1ST
TLT 1ST
short-term fixed income
▾
HIGH
Oil prices rise, Iran war persists.
Oil price direction is higher despite short-term fluctuations because Iran ceasefire is temporary and war will continue, keeping upward pressure on inflation with no near-term price correction.
WTI LONG
Nasdaq vulnerable to rising rates.
Nasdaq is very dependent on interest rates; if rates increase significantly due to Fed losing credibility and inflation, Nasdaq-oriented stocks will get hit.
QQQ AVOID
Banks profit from yield curve steepening.
Banks benefit in the short term from yield curve steepening as they borrow short and lend long, improving net interest margins; however, if steepening causes recession, bank earnings will eventually decline.
KBE LONG
Long-dated bonds face significant losses.
Long-dated bonds are at significant risk as the yield curve steepens from market loss of confidence in the Fed; yields could surge further, causing large losses for holders.
TLT AVOID
Prefer short-duration fixed income.
Given the opaque Fed and yield curve steepening, investors should shift to short-term fixed income duration to protect principal and avoid long-end volatility.
short-term fixed income LONG
HIGH
20:59
Jul 29
Jul 29
OEX 1ST
SOXX FLIP
QQQ FLIP
EWY 1ST
SPY
▾
HIGH
Short semiconductors, NDX, OEX on topping signals
The market is in a corrective phase with technical topping signals: double island tops in the semiconductor index, exhaustive gaps in the S&P 100 at cycle highs, and no panic volume spikes to suggest a bottom. Rising rates and heavy AI-related borrowing make overvalued technology stocks even more vulnerable. The firm went short semiconductors, NDX, and OEX in June and has not yet covered because more downside is expected.
OEX SHORT
SOXX SHORT
QQQ SHORT
Long KOSPI on exhaustive gap, cycle low
The KOSPI has declined about 44% to its morning low with an orderly, exhaustive gap pattern and no major downside gaps until very recently. This action often precedes a low and a reversal. Today coincides with a Montgomery cycle date, a historically reliable turning point, giving higher probability of a short-term bottom. The firm took a 1% tactical long position to test the waters, planning to add on confirmation or exit if lows fail.
EWY LONG
Long S&P 500 on April buy signals
A cluster of quantitative buy signals triggered in April 2026, historically projecting the S&P 500 to a median level of ~8,900 (up ~20%) with a minimum of ~8,200 (up ~11%). The retail model follows these signals and is currently 100% long the S&P 500. Most signals are still performing in line with historical returns, so the long position is maintained until the signals fail or a bear market signal appears.
SPY LONG
Tactical long gold, silver, GDX after corrections
Gold, silver, and gold miners (GDX) have experienced large corrections. The firm has taken a tactical long position (5% each) expecting a rally from these oversold levels. The long-term fundamental view remains bearish on gold, silver, and gold stocks; this is purely a short-term tactical trade based on the size of the pullback.
SILVER LONG
GDX LONG
GLD LONG
HIGH
21:51
Jul 28
Jul 28
Artificial Intelligence and Software Stocks
WTI 1ST
XLE 1ST
GDX
▾
HIGH
AI and software stocks are a bubble.
Artificial intelligence and software stocks are in a bubble. Hundreds of billions, maybe trillions, are flowing into data centers too quickly, leading to mistakes and uneconomic spending. A dollar put into AI is not generating real breakthroughs in science or medicine; it is mainly gathering personal information. The sector will waste capital and likely see significant losses.
Artificial Intelligence and Software Stocks AVOID
Oil and oil stocks will rise.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (Iran, Israel, Houthis, Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb) are not going away; the conflict is permanent and creates a lasting war premium on oil. With oil production costs around $80 acting as a floor, and political risk worsening, oil prices are headed higher. Oil and gas stocks are a preferred vehicle because they are cheap and not yet recognized by the market, while the oil futures market is too volatile.
WTI LONG
XLE LONG
Gold and silver mining stocks are cheap.
Gold and silver mining stocks are extremely cheap relative to record metal prices. The all-in sustaining cost to mine gold is around $1,700/oz while gold trades at $4,000/oz, so miners are coining money. This profitability is not recognized by the market, creating a high-potential speculation. Physical gold and silver are no longer a particularly good speculation, but mining stocks offer the big upside.
GDX LONG
HIGH
18:22
Jul 28
Jul 28
NVDA
URA
SPY
COPPER
Copper stocks
▾
HIGH
Nvidia's vendor financing signals AI bubble.
Nvidia is engaging in vendor financing—lending money to customers to buy its products—just like telecom companies did before the dot-com crash. The AI bubble and excess debt around it are a serious concern that could implode, and former AI leaders are already weakening.
NVDA AVOID
Considering uranium re-entry.
As part of the broader metals bull market, he is now looking at possibly re-entering the uranium market. The idea is still in the evaluation stage, but he sees it as a potential opportunity inside the critical minerals theme.
URA WATCH
Avoid US equities, prolonged weakness.
He sold all US equities and holds zero US equity exposure. He expects US markets to roll over and underperform for years, not a crash but a long grind lower, driven by geopolitical missteps, trade war damage, foreign selling of Treasuries, massive deficit refinancing needs, AI bubble risks, and loss of US global dominance.
SPY AVOID
Copper supply crisis drives steady gains.
Copper is his favorite metal. A structural supply deficit exists: the world needs six new Tier 1 copper mines per year through 2050 just for normal growth, yet very few are coming online. Chile's output is constrained by social issues and declining ore grades. Copper has climbed in a steady, methodical way with higher highs and higher lows, making it a superior long-term holding. He would rather own copper stocks than any technology stock.
COPPER LONG
Copper stocks LONG
10-year Treasury yield heading to 5%+.
The US must refinance nearly $10 trillion of maturing debt, and he believes it will take a 10-year Treasury yield of 5% or higher to get that done. Meanwhile, Japan and China are reducing their purchases of US Treasuries, shifting more financing burden onto domestic markets. Not raising rates now could damage the bond market more than actually raising.
IEF SHORT
Metals begin second leg of bull market.
He re-entered the metals market after gold briefly traded below $4,000. Sees deepening shortages across key metals and critical minerals, corrective phase completed, and the start of the second leg of a three-leg bull market in precious and industrial metals.
XLB LONG
HIGH
23:07
Jul 27
Jul 27
GDX 1ST
BTC
ALTCOINS 1ST
▾
HIGH
Avoid gold mining stocks; underperformed gold.
Gold mining stocks have failed to benefit from the massive gold price rally to $5,600, indicating poor management and lack of upside. If the gold move didn't lift these stocks, there is no reason to own them. He sold mining stocks in April and sees no case for holding them.
GDX AVOID
Buy Bitcoin for the digital future.
Bitcoin is a compelling buy because life is becoming 100% digitized, and the original Bitcoin blockchain is fascinating, scarce (21 million coins), and will be increasingly desired. The valuation gap with gold ($1.3 trillion vs $32 trillion) and the negative sentiment among gold bugs at $65k present an opportunity. He recommends a small allocation and says current price action is 'the buy'.
BTC LONG
Avoid altcoins; only Bitcoin matters.
Altcoins (cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin) are not worth buying because they do something he is not interested in. He believes only Bitcoin has the unique properties that make it valuable in a digitized world, so investors should avoid other coins.
ALTCOINS AVOID
HIGH
19:22
Jul 26
Jul 26
QQQ 1ST
MAGS 1ST
SPY 1ST
SMH 1ST
DBA 1ST
▾
HIGH
US stocks overvalued, face stagflationary repricing.
The US stock market (S&P 500, Nasdaq) has not priced in the geopolitical instability, chokepoint disruptions, and stagflationary supply shocks that create deep uncertainty for global companies. When the future of diversified, leveraged business models becomes unknowable, valuations must compress. Current P/E ratios around 20 are unsustainable; Butler expects major indices to sink to low double-digit or even single-digit valuations, comparable to the early 1980s.
QQQ AVOID
SPY AVOID
AI bubble will burst, avoid tech.
AI is a huge bubble, even less justifiable than the dot-com nonsense. Opaque private credit involvement, unproven productivity gains, and massive capex spending are warning signs. Butler would avoid AI, luxuries, and untested technologies, believing that when the smoke clears, AI will be seen as making people less productive and that capex spending will slow, triggering a re-rating of semiconductor and Magnificent Seven stocks.
MAGS AVOID
SMH AVOID
Own basic industries with pricing power.
In a stagflationary environment driven by supply shortages, investors should own a diversified basket of real assets and basic industries with pricing power: agriculture, petrochemicals, and other chemicals low on the economic value chain. Everyone needs food, clothing, shelter, and energy to keep the lights on—the companies providing these essentials will thrive while high-multiple growth sectors suffer. Butler terms this approach 'Limbo investing': getting as low as possible on the value chain.
DBA LONG
XLE LONG
YPF holds massive undeveloped oil potential.
The Argentinian state oil company (YPF) is an attractive long-term holding because the world’s largest undeveloped oil field is believed to lie in the seas off the Falkland Islands and Patagonia, and YPF will capture a huge share of that development. Butler has been recommending it for three years as a specific way to play energy exposure.
YPF LONG
Gold and silver bull market will persist.
Precious metals (gold and silver) are in a structural bull market that will only end if governments abandon inherently inflationary neo-Keynesian policies—which Butler sees no evidence of. Central bank buying, loss of trust in fiat currencies, sanctions, and the stagflationary environment will push gold and silver back into an uptrend regardless of temporary rises in real interest rates or short-term hawkishness from the Fed. The only true safe-haven cash is that which cannot be debased or defaulted on, namely precious metals.
GLD LONG
SILVER LONG
HIGH
16:57
Jul 25
Jul 25
GLD 1ST
COPX
GDX 1ST
SILVER 1ST
COPPER 1ST
▾
HIGH
Gold to $14,000 on central bank buying.
Central banks are buying around 1,000 tons of physical gold per year, preparing for the decline of the US dollar system and a potential sovereign debt crisis. Deutsche Bank predicts gold could reach $12,000–$14,000 as gold returns to a larger role in monetary reserves. The secular bull market is just starting, driven by central bank demand, not retail speculation.
GLD LONG
Copper bull market on supply deficit.
Copper is in a strong uptrend and held up well during the recent precious metals correction. Demand from AI and the EV revolution, combined with a worldwide production deficit (older mines depleting, new discoveries insufficient), is likely to drive a new bull market in copper and copper mining stocks.
COPX LONG
COPPER LONG
Gold/silver miners to double on recovery.
After a severe 6-month correction, gold and silver mining stocks have likely made a bottom. The XAU (gold/silver index) has tested a multi-decade breakout level. Major producers like Newmont and Barrick trade at P/E ~10-11 with strong free cash flow, making them cheap. The sector could double in the next 12-18 months, with seniors and royalty companies recovering first.
GDX LONG
Silver to $500 on gold-silver ratio.
Silver has retraced over 50% back to a major breakout level around $55, creating a strong buying opportunity. Based on the historical gold-silver ratio (1:10), with gold at $5,000 or higher, silver could reach $500, and shorter term it could go back to $100. The speaker personally bought more and sees a generational silver bull market.
SILVER LONG
HIGH
18:59
Jul 24
Jul 24
GLD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Gold's pullback is a buying opportunity.
Gold's pullback to around $4,000 is a good buying opportunity. The rally to $5,500 was overstretched and driven by geopolitical rhetoric, but the strategic case remains intact: record sovereign debt levels eroding fiat currency value, central banks continuing to accumulate gold as there is no viable large-scale alternative to the dollar, and sticky Asian demand motivated by diversification. Short-term headwinds from high real rates are pressuring Western investors, but once clarity emerges from the Fed and geopolitical tensions ease, gold could quickly regain upward momentum and target $5,000 over the next five years.
GLD LONG
HIGH
21:00
Jul 23
Jul 23
Why Are Markets Crashing Now? Trader Reveals Major Signals For Stocks, Bitcoin, Gold | Jason Shapiro
NZD/USD
DXY 1ST
BTC
WTI 1ST
GLD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Fade overcrowded dollar longs, commodity currency shorts
The long dollar trade and short Canadian dollar and New Zealand dollar trades have become the most overcrowded in currency markets. Extreme positioning suggests these trends are due for reversal, providing a contrarian opportunity to fade the crowded trades.
NZD/USD LONG
DXY SHORT
CAD/USD LONG
Bitcoin buy signal from weak sentiment
Bitcoin sentiment has collapsed with viewership and interest declining, and the market is no longer reacting to negative narratives. This extreme bearishness and lack of participation improves risk/reward, signaling a buy relative to selling. Bitcoin has started to trade better as everyone gives up, a classic contrarian opportunity.
BTC LONG
Long crude amid weak positioning, recency bias
Crude oil positioning is the least long since before the Iran war, recency bias has burned traders who bought on war fears, so they are afraid to buy again. This lack of participation means crude has upside legs. The Economist apologies for being wrong on July 1st marked the exact low, a contrarian signal. Crude is trading very well and likely to move higher sustainably.
WTI LONG
Gold bottoming as rate sensitivity breaks
Gold has been in a bear market since January as the narrative of higher rates hurting gold dominated. However, now interest rates are making new highs but gold and silver have stopped falling, indicating the narrative is breaking down. Sentiment is extremely weak (miners struggling to raise capital, nobody wants to finance gold), which creates a favorable risk/reward for a long position. He prefers buying gold over bonds.
GLD LONG
HIGH
21:00
Jul 22
Jul 22
GLD 1ST
GDXJ 1ST
WRLGF 1ST
WRLG.V 1ST
▾
HIGH
Gold consolidation before next upleg.
Gold price has been consolidating around $4,000 after an extremely steep rise to $5,000. Speculative money has been washed out. A consolidation phase is normal and typically precedes the next leg up. The speaker expects gold to hold around $4,000 as a base, with a ramp-up starting in the back half of the year or into next year. This view is supported by historical chart patterns and the fact that $4,000 still provides strong margins for producers.
GLD LONG
Gold miners deeply undervalued, strong cash flow.
Gold mining equities have been heavily sold off, with NAV multiples compressing from 6-8x to around 2x, despite the gold price remaining near $4,000. Miners are generating strong free cash flow at current gold prices, making the sector undervalued relative to both its history and other industries. As gold sentiment improves, miners are poised to recover. GDXJ is explicitly mentioned as down 20-30%.
GDXJ LONG
Production ramp-up to double WRLG share price.
West Red Lake Gold is in production ramp-up with strong Q2 results showing 51% higher production and 73% more mined ounces over Q1. The company is on track to deliver 35-45k oz this year and targets 60k oz next year without new capex. A prefeasibility study in September will outline a path to 100-120k oz/year. The stock is deeply discounted after Q1 results and the general gold sentiment sell-off, and the CEO expects the share price to return to the $1.30-1.50 range quickly and potentially double over the next 16 months.
WRLGF LONG
WRLG.V LONG
HIGH
17:27
Jul 22
Jul 22
GSG
AI-themed stocks
US Dollar Index (DXY)
JGBUX 1ST
BNO
▾
HIGH
Watch commodities for upward pressure.
Broad commodities are worth watching because China is depleting inventories and will soon restock, oil supply shocks are building, and inflationary pressures are re-emerging globally.
GSG WATCH
Avoid AI stocks amid growing fatigue.
AI fatigue is emerging as speculative mania unwinds. South Korean retail investors are facing margin calls on leveraged AI plays, fewer new buyers are jumping on the bandwagon, and upcoming earnings could disappoint. AI-related stocks are unattractive.
AI-themed stocks AVOID
Long U.S. dollar.
The U.S. dollar is very strong and this strength will continue at least in the short run, supported by relative yield differentials and persistent carry trade inflows from Japan.
US Dollar Index (DXY) LONG
Buy Japanese bonds, yields will fall.
Contrary to central bank and market forecasts, Japanese inflation will decline because money supply growth remains very low. As inflation falls, Japanese bond yields will fall, making long JGB positions attractive.
JGBUX LONG
Crude oil prices will rise further.
Oil supply disruptions are intensifying due to closures of the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea. The crude oil market is in steep backwardation, with spot prices well above futures, indicating severe physical shortages. Backwardation in gasoline and diesel is even more extreme. China is beginning to replenish depleted inventories while U.S. production and SPR drawdowns are near limits. These factors will drive oil prices higher.
BNO LONG
Short yen versus dollar.
Japan's monetary policy is misunderstood. Money supply growth is anemic, so inflation will fall, not rise. Japanese bond yields will come down, and the yen carry trade will stay attractive, causing the yen to continue depreciating against the dollar.
FXY SHORT
Gold is cheap, target $6,000.
Central banks, especially China, are buying gold far more aggressively than official numbers suggest. Gold is cheap, and the $6,000 target remains in place. Headwinds from higher rates and a strong dollar may delay, but will not prevent, the rally.
GLD LONG
Sell U.S. bonds, yields going higher.
U.S. money supply growth is accelerating (Divisia M4 at 6.7%), which means elevated inflation is already baked in. The Fed will be forced to tighten policy further, pushing U.S. bond yields higher. Short U.S. Treasuries are warranted.
TLT SHORT
HIGH
21:13
Jul 21
Jul 21
SMH 1ST
ZN_F
SPCX FLIP
DXY 1ST
WTI
▾
HIGH
Short semiconductors and tech stocks.
Semiconductor and tech stocks made unsustainable parabolic moves; AI spending concerns and overvaluation will drive further downside, similar to Palantir's drop, with NVDA, Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, and IonQ all vulnerable.
SMH SHORT
NVDA SHORT
INTC SHORT
MU SHORT
QCOM SHORT
IONQ SHORT
Short 10-year Treasury futures.
Free-market forces dictate higher interest rates; 10-year note futures have fallen and will go lower as inflation forces the Fed to hike, with the market already front-running rate increases.
ZN_F SHORT
Buy SpaceX near lows.
SpaceX has fallen about 50% from its peak, the chart shows slowing downside momentum near support, and it is becoming an attractive buy for believers in the company's long-term prospects.
SPCX LONG
Long US dollar index.
Global uncertainty and market trouble drive safe-haven demand for the dollar; technical support at par with upside to 102-103 on DXY, supported by reserve-currency status.
DXY LONG
Short WTI crude oil.
Global glut of oil and diminishing impact of geopolitical events will push WTI crude into the low 60s or high 50s by year-end, making this rally to 85 a selling opportunity.
WTI SHORT
Long gold, silver, platinum.
Gold, silver, and platinum have built a base after parabolic moves, are ready to resume a steady uptrend, and have already priced in future rate hikes, reducing downside from Fed tightening.
GLD LONG
SILVER LONG
PPLT LONG
Short S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
Markets are setting up for a 2008-style crash; excessive consumer debt, defaults, and overvalued assets will cause a 40-60% correction; current rally is sellable and S&P 500 may end the year flat or down.
SPY SHORT
QQQ SHORT
Long Oracle for a bounce.
Oracle is extremely oversold, trading about three standard deviations below the mean, historically giving a ~90% probability of a short-term bounce, making it a trader's buy for a mean-reversion move.
ORCL LONG
HIGH
19:29
Jul 21
Jul 21
GLD
GDX 1ST
SKP.V 1ST
STKXF
COPPER 1ST
▾
HIGH
Gold floor at $4,000, uptrend continues
Gold has built a solid base around $4,000 after a correction from $5,500. The long-term trend remains up, and the pullback offers a buying opportunity as the world adjusts to this new price level.
GLD LONG
Senior gold miners leveraged to $4,000 gold
Senior gold producers have massive operational leverage to $4,000 gold because every truck of ore carries thousands of dollars of metal, and with thousands of trucks daily the profit multiplier is huge. The GDX index is down 35% from its highs, creating an opportunity to reload or enter.
GDX LONG
StrikePoint oversold, resource estimate catalyst
StrikePoint Gold was oversold during the gold pullback, but the company has fundamentally good assets like the Hercules gold project. Recent drill results and an upcoming initial resource estimate in Q4 are catalysts, making the current level a good entry point.
SKP.V LONG
STKXF LONG
Copper best for Western industrial catch-up
For the Western industrial catch-up, copper is the best commodity because modern civilization and all data transmission rely on copper, making it a very interesting place to be.
COPPER LONG
HIGH
20:57
Jul 20
Jul 20
SOX index
TSLA
XAU 1ST
GLD 1ST
USO
▾
HIGH
Unwinding epic semiconductor bubble, capacity surge
Semiconductor stocks are in the largest bubble in history, surpassing the dotcom era. The sector is completely overcooked on valuations, positioning, and massive capacity coming online. Hyperscaler capital spending is unsustainable, and when one announces a cutback, the entire semiconductor food chain will collapse. The pattern mirrors shipping stocks, where temporary supply inelasticity and high margins get arbitraged away. Despite 30-40% declines, positioning remains stale and crowded. The trade is to short semiconductor stocks.
SOX index SHORT
SOXX SHORT
Tesla profits tiny, valuation absurd, short it
Tesla has cumulatively earned only $38 billion in its entire history, yet is valued at $1.5 trillion. It benefits from massive tax incentives and emission credits, but its underlying automotive business does not generate real profits. The stock is absurdly overvalued at 14 times sales, should trade closer to $40-50. George Noble has been short Tesla and continues to recommend shorting it.
TSLA SHORT
Gold bottoming, fiscal debasement drives upside
Gold is in the process of a major bottom after a washout of tourist positions. Fiscal dominance, uncontrolled deficits, and the inability of the government to allow rates to rise without crashing the economy will lead to more money printing and a soft default. The dollar will keep losing value against gold over the long term. Rising rates in a country that cannot afford them are ultimately bullish for gold because central banks will be forced to ease aggressively.
XAU LONG
GLD LONG
Oil squeeze imminent, inventories low, short covering
The oil market is primed for a squeeze. Chinese imports have been artificially depressed and are likely rebounding. Inventories are way down, strategic petroleum reserves are depleted, and speculative short positioning in oil is near all-time highs. The recent one-off factors that suppressed prices are reversing. Oil is expected to be flat to up, with a high probability of a sharp rally as shorts are forced to cover.
USO LONG
WTI LONG
Gold and silver miners still very attractive
Gold and silver mining stocks had a strong run but are now in a healthy consolidation. Despite too many still wanting to buy, meaning the consolidation could last longer, the fundamental case remains intact. Mining equities are still liked very much for the long term. They will eventually move significantly higher as the precious metals bull market resumes.
GDX LONG
SIL LONG
RSP outperforms SPY as tech unwinds
Technology now constitutes 40-50% of the S&P 500 (SPY), making the index dangerously concentrated in the overvalued tech sector. By switching from SPY to the equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP), investors can drastically reduce tech exposure and benefit as the market rotates away from mega-cap tech. The rotation chart shows a simple trade that will add significantly to performance.
RSP LONG
Oracle faces bankruptcy, extreme debt, AI exposure
Oracle is a highly overvalued, debt-laden company whose business is inextricably linked to the AI bubble and OpenAI. The combination of hubris and massive debt makes it extremely vulnerable. The company could go bankrupt, similar to Cisco after the dotcom bubble. George Noble has held a successful short position in Oracle since last year and continues to recommend shorting it.
ORCL SHORT
SpaceX float expansion crashes overvalued stock
SpaceX is a grossly overvalued AI play with a rocket attachment. The stock was artificially inflated by forced index inclusion and a tiny 5% free float. With 20% more shares unlocking soon, and eventually 100% freely traded, insider selling pressure will crash the stock. It already broke the IPO price. The structure guarantees a catastrophic decline. Fair value is around $30 per share.
SPCX SHORT
Cheap energy stocks benefit from underinvestment
Energy stocks are extremely cheap after years of underinvestment while global energy consumption continues to grow. Capital expenditures in real terms have fallen 70% over the last decade. Higher prices are required to incentivize new supply. The energy sector's weight in the S&P 500 is only 3.5%, about half the market cap of a single tech stock. This valuation disconnect, combined with low expectations, provides a very favorable risk-reward.
XLE LONG
Bearish bonds, rates too low for deficits
The US fiscal situation is dire with a $2.5 trillion deficit, $40 trillion in debt, and $125 trillion in off-balance-sheet liabilities. Rising demand for funds from the private sector capex boom, combined with foreigners stepping back from buying Treasuries, means real yields must go higher. Interest rates are too low and are not acting as a brake on the economy due to fiscal dominance. George Noble has been consistently bearish on bonds for years and maintains that stance.
TLT SHORT
HIGH
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