Gold To $3,000, Oil To $40, Bitcoin To $10,000: The Deflation Trade Is Here | Mike McGlone

Mike McGlone, Bloomberg Intelligence's Senior Commodity Strategist, lays out a deflationary macro thesis. He argues that extremely high bond yields, stretched equity valuations, and overbought precious metals and Bitcoin are setting up for a second-half correction. Key calls include short gold to $3,000, short crude oil to $40 or lower, short Bitcoin to $10,000, and long US Treasuries as a safe-haven put with positive carry. - McGlone expects a normal midterm election year correction in the S&P 500 that will trigger a deflationary reset. - Gold has reached bubble-like extremes versus the S&P 500, Treasuries, and its moving average, and could fall to $3,000/oz. - WTI crude oil is in a 20-year downtrend of lower highs and lows, with US production dominance pushing prices toward average production costs around $55 and possibly $40. - Bitcoin has already broken down despite rising equities and is heading for $10,000 as the ETF-fueled bull market unwinds. - Long-dated US Treasury bonds yielding 5.2% act as a put on the stock market with positive carry and no decay, attracting flows from non-income assets. - Copper is highly correlated to the S&P 500 and vulnerable to a sharp drop; hedge funds are still heavily long. - He sees OPEC becoming increasingly redundant as the US and Canada shift the global energy supply balance, capping oil upside. - The second half of 2026 is anticipated to bring a volatility spike and a reversal in risk assets, favoring bonds.