Name: Stocks ‘Can Collapse At Any Time’ If The Fed Does This Warns Analyst | Milton Berg
Uploaded: 2026-07-29T20:59:03+00:00
Duration: 3090 s

Speakers

Milton Berg — Founder, MB Advisors

Summary

Milton Berg, founder of MB Advisors, expects Fed Chair Kevin Walsh to hike rates or reduce the balance sheet contrary to consensus, and sees the current market decline as a correction within a longer uptrend supported by quantitative buy signals. He reveals short positions in semiconductors, NDX, and OEX, a tactical long in KOSPI on a cycle date, a tactical long in gold/silver/GDX after corrections, and a retail model still long the S&P 500 targeting 8,200–8,900.

Expects Fed to hike rates or reduce balance sheet at current meeting.
Views market decline as a correction, not a bear market; proprietary buy signals project S&P 500 to 8,200–8,900.
Tactically short Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), NASDAQ 100 (NDX), and S&P 100 (OEX).
Tactical long position in KOSPI based on exhaustive gap and Montgomery cycle date.
Tactical long in gold, silver, and GDX after steep corrections, though long-term view remains bearish.
Retail model is 100% long S&P 500 following April 2026 buy signals.
Warns that record-low margin debt relative to cash leaves equity market vulnerable to a collapse.

Ideas

Milton Berg Founder, MB Advisors 14:10

Long KOSPI on exhaustive gap, cycle low

The KOSPI has declined about 44% to its morning low with an orderly, exhaustive gap pattern and no major downside gaps until very recently. This action often precedes a low and a reversal. Today coincides with a Montgomery cycle date, a historically reliable turning point, giving higher probability of a short-term bottom. The firm took a 1% tactical long position to test the waters, planning to add on confirmation or exit if lows fail.

Milton Berg Founder, MB Advisors 19:16

Short semiconductors, NDX, OEX on topping signals

The market is in a corrective phase with technical topping signals: double island tops in the semiconductor index, exhaustive gaps in the S&P 100 at cycle highs, and no panic volume spikes to suggest a bottom. Rising rates and heavy AI-related borrowing make overvalued technology stocks even more vulnerable. The firm went short semiconductors, NDX, and OEX in June and has not yet covered because more downside is expected.

Milton Berg Founder, MB Advisors 26:00

Long S&P 500 on April buy signals

A cluster of quantitative buy signals triggered in April 2026, historically projecting the S&P 500 to a median level of ~8,900 (up ~20%) with a minimum of ~8,200 (up ~11%). The retail model follows these signals and is currently 100% long the S&P 500. Most signals are still performing in line with historical returns, so the long position is maintained until the signals fail or a bear market signal appears.

Milton Berg Founder, MB Advisors 41:10

Tactical long gold, silver, GDX after corrections

Gold, silver, and gold miners (GDX) have experienced large corrections. The firm has taken a tactical long position (5% each) expecting a rally from these oversold levels. The long-term fundamental view remains bearish on gold, silver, and gold stocks; this is purely a short-term tactical trade based on the size of the pullback.

Stocks ‘Can Collapse At Any Time’ If The Fed Does This Warns Analyst | Milton Berg

Summary

Ideas

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