Loading...
Loading...
Loading...
Loading...
Loading...
Loading...
1 selected
Loading...
0 selected
Loading...
0 selected
0 selected
All post types✓
Portfolio updates✓
Stock lists✓
Research✓
News✓
All Content✓
Source feeds
Buzzberg Top 50
✓
All market capsNo capitalization filter✓
200 B and aboveMega✓
10 B to 200 BLarge✓
2 B to 10 BMid✓
0 to 2 BSmall✓
Custom
Enter market cap range in B USD
All directions✓
▲ Long✓
▼ Short✓
⛔ Avoid✓
✂ Close✓
◦ Others✓
Any score✓
LOW+✓
MED+✓
HIGH✓
06:00
Sep 06
Sep 06
LNG 1ST
Korean nuclear-related stocks
Korean large construction/plant companies
108860 1ST
Taekwang 1ST
▾
HIGH
LNG, nuclear, construction stocks should hold up
Lee expects the US to attempt LNG investment, especially Alaska LNG, and nuclear investment. Because LNG or nuclear projects will be tied to construction, Korean LNG-related stocks, nuclear-related stocks, and large construction/plant companies with nuclear and LNG experience should hold up relatively well. Downside risk appears limited before September decisions, and underlying earnings are not bad.
LNG LONG
Korean nuclear-related stocks LONG
Korean large construction/plant companies LONG
Buy LNG pipe-fitting names on pullbacks
LNG projects require Korean-made pipe fittings, so names like Sungkwang Bend and Taekwang should be watched on pullbacks. They have already risen, but US LNG projects are likely to continue regardless of Korean participation.
108860 LONG
Taekwang LONG
Trade power equipment on valuations, buy dips
Korean power equipment stocks should be traded against US peer valuations. When Korean leaders converge toward US valuations, trim; when they pull back, buy. Among them, companies with a steeper growth slope should be accumulated when cheap.
Korean power equipment stocks LONG
Shipbuilding stocks may stay frustrating near term
Shipbuilding is positive long-term because the US-China naval gap will widen and the US is ultimately the urgent party, but near-term stock flow is likely to remain frustrating: US legislation and visible orders are slow, floating data center orders are unlikely to be concrete this year, and earnings alone cannot move prices.
Korean Shipbuilding Stocks WATCH
Korean chemical stocks may gain relative benefit
If the US-Venezuela oil arrangement proceeds, Korean chemical companies could secure cheaper crude. Middle East disruption and diversion of Venezuelan barrels away from China could also erode Chinese chemical margins, creating relative benefit for Korean chemical names. Lee says he is studying the sector after recent bottoming and volume pickup.
Korean chemical stocks WATCH
Alteogen is worth considering, not expensive
Alteogen's SC formulation technology is already validated through big-pharma contracts and milestone revenue. The SC market is large, and versus Halozyme, Alteogen has a much longer patent runway, broader licensing scope, and expansion potential into ADC/AOC. Recent US patent litigation wins reduce noise, and at only a modest market-cap premium to Halozyme, the stock is not expensive and is worth considering.
196170.KQ LONG
HIGH
06:00
Sep 06
Sep 06
NVDA 1ST
005930.KS
000660.KS
AMD 1ST
INTC 1ST
▾
HIGH
Nvidia's ecosystem and cash flow remain dominant.
Nvidia's CUDA software moat locks in AI developers, and the company is aggressively widening its ecosystem through M&A and strategic investments such as OpenAI, CoreWeave, and Hugging Face. With next-year revenue guidance near USD 673bn and operating margins around 65-66%, Nvidia's annual cash generation could reach roughly USD 360-380bn; even if cyclical revenue weakens, it can solve the problem by pausing buybacks and dividends for two to three years.
NVDA LONG
Samsung HBM share recovery supports re-rating.
Samsung Electronics' HBM market share jumped from 21% to 33% in Q2 while SK Hynix fell from 58% to 50%. From HBM4, Samsung can manufacture the base die in its own foundry rather than outsourcing it to TSMC, which So believes restores Samsung's HBM competitiveness and positions it for a re-rating. Chinese memory expansion caps valuations, but if US-Iran war resolution pushes Treasury yields down, Samsung and SK Hynix could still rise 20-30%; Samsung is safer because its smartphone business is holding up and it has foundry optionality.
005930.KS LONG
SK Hynix HBM leader retains upside.
SK Hynix is the incumbent HBM leader and remains exposed to AI memory demand. It can still participate in a Korean memory re-rating of 20-30% if long-term Treasury yields fall, but its Q2 HBM share fell from 58% to 50% as Samsung gained, making it relatively less preferred than Samsung.
000660.KS LONG
Funds rotate to cheaper AMD and Intel.
With Nvidia's market capitalization around USD 5trn, US fund managers cannot easily add more, so they rotate into smaller, cheaper semiconductor alternatives. AMD is being bought as earnings improve, and Intel is also being bid up despite sub-10% operating margins because US government support and lower market cap make it an easier trade.
AMD LONG
INTC LONG
Semis rally if yields fall post-war.
Semiconductor equities stalled in July-August because hyperscaler off-balance-sheet debt is roughly USD 2.4trn, and long-term US Treasury yields act as the key headwind. If the US-Iran war ends and oil falls from USD 90 toward USD 70, Treasury yields should decline, allowing semiconductor stocks to rally toward previous highs.
SMH WATCH
Taiwan power shortfall threatens TSMC.
TSMC's biggest risk is Taiwan's power shortage. Taiwan's government phased out nuclear power, and TSMC already uses 8% of Taiwan's electricity with that share expected to exceed 20% within five years. China could exploit this through a blockade rather than an invasion, making TSMC's energy vulnerability a major structural risk.
TSM AVOID
Toyota collapses without solid-state battery success.
Toyota lacks a competitive EV lineup and is effectively betting on all-solid-state batteries. If solid-state technology does not succeed, So argues Toyota will collapse, and that could seriously damage Japan's auto industry.
TM AVOID
Prefer Korean equipment leaders over China exposure.
Korean semiconductor equipment companies that supply Samsung, SK Hynix, and TSMC, such as HPSP and EO Technics, are global leaders. So prefers these over Korean equipment firms heavily exposed to China because Chinese equipment makers like AMEC already supply TSMC etch equipment and use government-backed 1+1 pricing to undercut Korean rivals, hurting China-oriented Korean equipment earnings.
403870.KQ LONG
030200.KQ LONG
HIGH
03:00
Sep 06
Sep 06
WTI
UGA
Korean refining sector
▾
HIGH
Hormuz blockade pushes oil and gasoline higher.
A prolonged Hormuz blockade will exceed the ability of governments to control fuel prices. When Hormuz was first blocked, oil prices jumped roughly 50-59%; if that rise were fully passed through, Korean pump prices would be about 2,500 won per liter. With the closure becoming long-term, the speaker sees hitting 2,500 won gasoline as a matter of time.
WTI LONG
UGA LONG
Hormuz blockade squeezes Korean refining margins.
Korean refiners operate a high-value product export model by importing cheap sour-heavy Middle East crude. If Hormuz is blocked, replacing that feedstock with more expensive US light/sweet crude, at roughly $3 per barrel premium and about 60-day shipping versus 25 days from the Middle East, forces facility changes and materially compresses refining margins.
Korean refining sector AVOID
HIGH
02:18
Sep 06
Sep 06
EWY 1ST
066970.KS 1ST
006400.KS 1ST
007340.KS 1ST
Korean semiconductor equipment/materials
▾
HIGH
KOSPI likely rebounds around Chuseok.
Foreign futures/options supply is improving and the 60-day moving average has crossed above the 120-day; a 2001-2026 backtest shows after this golden cross KOSPI has avoided a -5% breakdown with probability above 51%. Earnings upgrades, won strength, and improving foreign risk appetite point to a KOSPI uptrend, with a rebound likely around Chuseok.
EWY LONG
LNF leads secondary battery materials.
Within secondary battery materials, LNF is the leader; its August monthly gain reached roughly 100%, while Samsung SDI is the finished-product leader. The secondary battery sector is currently the market's second-ranked group behind semiconductor equipment/materials.
066970.KS LONG
Samsung SDI is best battery play.
Samsung SDI is the only Korean battery maker with genuine profits excluding US AMPC subsidies; its 2Q 2026 operating profit was 203.8 billion won, and 96.1 billion won even excluding subsidies. North American ESS demand is set to grow from around 100 GW in 2026 to 500 GW by 2030, roughly a 47 trillion won market. US tariffs on Chinese batteries, long-term contracts, an Indiana plant, prismatic LFP technology, and the recent non-dilutive Samsung Display stake sale improve the cash and supply position. Scenario work gives 590,000-1,070,000 won targets with downside supported near 310,000 won.
006400.KS LONG
DN Automotive benefits from semiconductor equipment.
Semiconductor equipment makers face rising equipment prices and constraints in raw materials and skilled engineers. Machine tool companies such as DN Automotive, which absorbed Doosan Machine Tools, have historically grown sales and market cap more than 10x and offer a way to broaden semiconductor supply-chain exposure beyond front-end equipment makers.
007340.KS LONG
Semiconductor equipment/materials lead market.
Currently the top-performing market group is semiconductor equipment/materials, scoring 80-90 while secondary batteries rank second. This is a clear relative leadership statement favoring the Korean semiconductor equipment/materials complex.
Korean semiconductor equipment/materials LONG
HIGH
02:00
Sep 06
Sep 06
EWY 1ST
GOOGL 1ST
SPY 1ST
Thematic ETFs
ANTHROPIC
▾
HIGH
Korea discount narrowing supports KOSPI long-term.
Korea's market re-rating has real support because corporate governance reform is becoming institutionalized, minority shareholder voices are strengthening, and roughly 70% of KOSPI listed companies trade below 1x price-to-book. The Korea discount should narrow over the medium term, and Korean index exposure looks attractive long-term.
EWY LONG
Google sell-off overdone; resources allow catch-up.
Google's recent roughly $700 billion market-cap drawdown on DeepMind leadership concerns is excessive. Google has the engineering talent, time, and money to catch up in AI, and as Sergey Brin refocuses the organization commercially the company can still deliver, so the sell-off looks overdone.
GOOGL LONG
S&P 500 index investing wins long-term.
For long-term passive investors, broad index ETFs, especially the S&P 500 held on rolling 20-year or 30-year periods since 1928, have had no case of failing to beat inflation. Market-cap weighting automatically removes failed companies and rides winners, so long-term index ETF investing is the high-probability core recommendation.
SPY LONG
Avoid thematic ETFs as long-term investments.
Thematic ETFs tend to be launched only after a theme is already hot and priced, following product development and regulatory approval lags. Investors cannot properly capture the growth stage, and when the theme loses popularity the drawdowns are severe. Long-term thematic ETF success probability is therefore very low.
Thematic ETFs AVOID
Anthropic IPO could trigger AI chain correction.
Anthropic's expected September IPO creates reflexivity risk. After passive index and fund inclusion ends, if its share price falls, the negative market signal raises vendor financing costs, cuts AI infrastructure investment, reduces AI frontier-lab growth and hardware supplier capex, and can trigger a vicious AI value-chain correction. He is therefore watching Anthropic's post-IPO stock carefully.
ANTHROPIC WATCH
AI value chain WATCH
HIGH
01:49
Sep 06
Sep 06
SPY 1ST
AI Semiconductors
MU 1ST
Humanoid robots
Smart glasses
▾
HIGH
Expect market correction before AGI.
He expects a market correction before AGI, not because AI capabilities will plateau, but because markets are driven by hyped peak demo capabilities while real-economy adoption depends on reliability; the gap between peak capabilities and reliability is unlikely to be tolerated by markets for another three years.
SPY SHORT
AI chip demand will keep growing.
Markets are not yet pricing the enormous inference compute demand that will be unlocked once humanoid robots cross reliability thresholds and wearable smart glasses have their iPhone moment; efficiency gains like DeepSeek and Turbo Quant will unlock more demand via Jevons paradox rather than leave chips idle, and even in a market correction chips will not sit idle and dark.
AI Semiconductors LONG
MU LONG
Humanoid robots drive inference demand.
Humanoid robots will drive always-on inference demand once they cross reliability thresholds; the hardware problem is basically solved, and flexible-work demos like clearing a table are more relevant than choreographed dances, with Wozniak's coffee test likely passed before year-end.
Humanoid robots LONG
Smart glasses will drive inference demand.
Wearable smart glasses will have their iPhone moment probably within the next few years, creating an enormous draw on inference because they must passively and contextually assess the user's environment and advise them.
Smart glasses LONG
Claude currently leads ChatGPT on benchmarks.
Based on his private evaluations, Claude currently leads ChatGPT on at least a plurality of tasks because it translates user intent accurately with less hand-holding, supporting a long position in the Kalshi contract that Claude will be labeled best AI at the end of 2026.
Kalshi: Claude best AI end of 2026 LONG
YouTube benefits from AI-generated films.
AI-generated films will likely be distributed on platforms like YouTube, with revenue split between the platform and creator, making YouTube a beneficiary as AI dramatically lowers film production costs.
YouTube (Alphabet) LONG
HIGH
00:00
Sep 06
Sep 06
EWZ
▾
HIGH
Brazil 2026 first-round is not tail risk.
Maurício Moura argues the 2026 Brazilian presidential race is much more competitive than consensus suggests: Lula is not as favored and the election is close. He sees a first-round decision as a real scenario for both sides. For PT, a first-round win is possible because, for the first time, Lula has no significant candidate splitting his first-round vote, and his vote share should track government approval; if approval rises to 51-52% and Lula reaches 47-48% of total votes, he is flirting with 50% of valid votes. For the opposition, a late 'antipetismo de chegada' may consolidate anti-PT voters behind Flávio Bolsonaro if Lula nears a first-round win. This makes the Brazilian election/first-round setup worth monitoring.
EWZ WATCH
HIGH
23:30
Sep 05
Sep 05
SMH
005930.KS
000660.KS
▾
HIGH
Memory shortage continues into 2026
Lee does not see an AI bubble; he views AI as still in its early stages and likely to lift US productivity. Hyperscalers cannot stop AI hardware purchases because they must push through the reasoning/inference cycle, and memory semiconductors still have growth as AI chips move up in specification. He recommends investors keep semiconductor exposure but trim it from the prior 60-70% of portfolios to about 40-50%.
SMH LONG
Samsung/SK rally starts around October
Lee argues NAND flash concerns are overblown: Yangtze Memory and CXMT listings should not materially change the global NAND market because their output is largely China-focused, and Samsung's Xi'an NAND production is mostly for China. He also says Solidigm's potential IPO is not a major negative for SK hynix because it was bought for about 10 trillion won and could be listed near 50 trillion won, while Solidigm's operating profit is only about 1 trillion won versus SK hynix's 60 trillion won. The overall NAND market structure remains largely unchanged.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
HIGH
23:00
Sep 05
Sep 05
Polymarket Lula 2026 Brazil presidential election contract
▾
HIGH
Mercado superestima favoritismo de Lula em 2026
O mercado, usando o Polymarket como proxy, coloca Lula como favorito para 2026, mas o gestor vê uma assimetria forte: a eleição presidencial brasileira está muito mais disputada do que o precificado. Os motivos são o teto baixo de popularidade do governo, a abstenção de cerca de 20% que historicamente prejudica o PT em dois a três pontos percentuais e a perda de três a quatro pontos entre eleitores que votaram em Lula em 2022. Por isso, a probabilidade de vitória de Lula estaria superestimada.
Polymarket Lula 2026 Brazil presidential election contract SHORT
HIGH
23:00
Sep 05
Sep 05
EWY FLIP
005930.KS FLIP
XLK
SPY FLIP
000660.KS FLIP
▾
HIGH
Cheap KOSPI trapped by massive overhead supply.
KOSPI is cheap at about 5x valuation, but Vincent argues the index is in a value trap because roughly 91.6 trillion won of overhead supply sits above the market; every rally attempt is sold into, so expect a prolonged period adjustment rather than an immediate breakout.
EWY AVOID
Samsung and SK Hynix remain value trapped.
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix trade below 4x book, but despite record buyback and dividend announcements, buybacks are the only visible buyer, volume has shrunk, and the two biggest Korean shares remain stuck under heavy supply; absent a fresh catalyst they likely spend September and Q4 in a value trap.
005930.KS AVOID
000660.KS AVOID
AI productivity could revive US tech stocks.
Vincent thinks the more important FOMC signal is whether AI is lifting US productivity enough to offset high rates; if the Fed's projections confirm AI as a new production factor, US technology stocks could regain stronger momentum.
XLK WATCH
S&P 500 faces weak September seasonality.
US equities face a seasonally weak September: the S&P 500 has historically been weakest in September, and this year stacks midterm-election years, Fed-chair replacement years, and rate-hiking regimes, all of which also showed weak Septembers.
SPY AVOID
Texas data-center politics threaten AI chip demand.
Texas is set to become the largest US data-center hub, but its Republican governor is slowing fast-track approvals on inflation concerns, which Vincent flags as a risk that data-center construction delays could turn into a red flag for NVIDIA and less smooth memory demand.
NVDA WATCH
Geopolitics keeps oil a key market trigger.
War escalation and Hormuz/Venezuela supply risks could keep oil elevated; that would force the Fed to stay hawkish and likely hurt midterm election prospects, while any de-escalation could produce a sharp relief rally.
WTI WATCH
HIGH
21:00
Sep 05
Sep 05
SMH 1ST
FCBGA substrate makers
Samwha Capacitor
009150.KS 1ST
005930.KS 1ST
▾
HIGH
MLCC price hike cycle just began
The MLCC price-hike cycle only began in April 2025, unlike memory which started in September 2024. Supply is tight with major makers below 30 days of channel inventory and utilization above 95%, while AI server MLCC unit content and dollar content are rising several-fold. Park argues the price increases are just starting, will likely continue for about a year, and stock peaks tend to follow about 15 months after the first hike, so the sector is only 2-3 months into an upcycle.
SMH LONG
FCBGA substrate supply shortage will deepen
FCBGA substrate strength is driven by product structure, not just negotiation: server/Rubin packages are roughly double the area with 20+ layers, and larger panels lower yields and effectively reduce supply; Ajinomoto Fine Techno's ABF film monopoly has implemented a 30% price increase; supply-demand models swing to an 8% shortage in 2026 and 34-51% in 2027-2028; CPO optical packaging should make ABF substrates even larger. Substrate stocks respond to ASP direction, not absolute earnings, so this pricing-power setup supports the group.
FCBGA substrate makers LONG
Samwha Capacitor benefits from MLCC tier-2
Samwha Capacitor is a little-covered tier-2 MLCC/condenser maker valued around 1 trillion won; tier-1 MLCC makers are converting capacity to AI server high-cap products and raising generic prices, which shrinks generic supply and benefits tier-2 players; its film capacitor business serves data centers/transformers and adds higher-margin growth. Q2 operating profit recovered to 8.6 billion won with double-digit margins, and Park sees 2028 operating profit of 120-200 billion won if price hikes are reflected, versus current estimates that ignore them.
Samwha Capacitor LONG
Samsung Electro-Mechanics earnings upside remains large
Samsung Electro-Mechanics is the leading MLCC and FCBGA substrate name; component operating margin is only 16-17% versus 38% in the prior cycle because LTA contract structure delays price hikes, and third-quarter earnings should begin confirming the lagged ASP gains. Morgan Stanley rotated its top pick from Samsung Electronics to Samsung Electro-Mechanics, with 2027-2028 operating profit estimates revised toward 5.7-8.3 trillion won, and further MLCC ASP hikes could push numbers higher.
009150.KS LONG
Rotate from memory leaders to component names
An IT portfolio heavily concentrated in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix will broaden because component names are underowned, relatively cheaper, and have stronger near-term supply/demand; he suggests trimming Hynix exposure and rotating into Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Simmtech, and Samwha Capacitor. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix look less favorable short-term on supply/demand.
005930.KS AVOID
000660.KS AVOID
Simmtech socket dominates NVIDIA Rubin ramp
Simmtech is the strongest listed socket play for NVIDIA's Rubin platform; socket capacity is about 40% utilized in Q2 but revenue is ramping from 11.5 billion won in Q1 to 25 billion won in Q2 and forecast 50 billion won in Q3 and 75 billion won in Q4. The company is expanding socket capacity for 2028 and holds roughly 60% of global socket capacity. Park estimates socket margins are far above the 12% company margin and could take overall operating margin toward 30%.
222800.KQ LONG
HIGH
21:00
Sep 05
Sep 05
Market Makers
11h
BTC
MEMECOINS 1ST
MATIC 1ST
ARB 1ST
OP 1ST
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin cyclical bottom likely passed
Felipe estimates a 75% chance that Bitcoin's cyclical bottom is already behind, after a typical 50% drawdown from the 2025 high to near $60k, smaller than prior cycles. He notes Bitcoin reclaimed its 200-day moving average, the Strategy/Michael Saylor forced-sale overhang has cleared, and the market appears to be front-running the four-year cycle's expected October/November turn; if Bitcoin does not make a new low by November, he says this is a bull market.
BTC LONG
Memecoins are not dead
The market's appetite for high-risk, headless assets such as memecoins remains intact. When prices rise and euphoria returns, traders move further out the risk curve, so memecoins have not died.
MEMECOINS LONG
Layer-2 tokens are dead
Second-layer blockchain tokens are dead to him because too many L1/L2 platforms were built relative to users and apps, and the 'fat protocol' narrative collapsed. He names Matic/Polygon, Arbitrum, Mantle and Optimism as examples of tokens that rallied in prior cycles but no longer capture value.
MATIC AVOID
ARB AVOID
OP AVOID
MANTLE AVOID
Robotics is an early bullish theme
Felipe is bullish on robotics as the physical manifestation of the AI wave. He sees humanoids and other robot form factors such as companion devices and home helpers at the start of a broad product cycle, and compares potential displacement of pets to how cars displaced horses.
ROBO LONG
Altseason dead; trade selective altcoins
A broad altseason is dead because the number of altcoins is too large for all to rise together. Instead, investors must pick hot narratives; risky small coins can still outperform Bitcoin while speculative appetite exists, and now may be a moment for risk-on in altcoins with small size.
ALTCOINS LONG
Pons is an interesting altcoin
Felipe says he has liked Pons, an altcoin that has been drawing market attention and that he is positioning in, while acknowledging altcoin drawdowns can be extreme.
PONS LONG
Perp DEXs and tokenized stocks strong
Perp DEXs and tokenized equities are the strongest crypto narrative and the most promising sector this cycle. Hyperliquid is leading perp DEX activity and already has tokenized stocks, while Coinbase and US exchanges are moving into tokenized equities; on-chain activity is creating GameStop-style dynamics in tokenized stock supplies.
HYPE LONG
TOKENIZED STOCKS LONG
Robinhood is crypto's new speculative hub
Felipe sees Robinhood Chain as the new home of crypto speculation this cycle, similar to how Ethereum and Solana hosted prior speculative manias; moonshot coins are launching there and the ecosystem is showing strong speculative activity.
HOOD LONG
AI is in a bubble because transformative technologies routinely attract more investment than near-term returns can support. The upcoming Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs are defining events: if they open and rally, risk appetite remains; if they fade, it may mark the AI bubble top and spread to other risk assets.
AIQ WATCH
Prediction markets are growing rapidly
Prediction markets are growing strongly abroad and structurally eating revenue from lottery-like products. Robinhood already generates more revenue from prediction markets than from daily options, and Hyperliquid and Coinbase are entering the space; Brazil banned most domestic prediction markets.
PREDICTION MARKETS LONG
HIGH
19:00
Sep 05
Sep 05
Perpetual futures
COIN 1ST
KALSHI 1ST
BTC
▾
HIGH
US perps should be futures for retail.
Perpetual futures have characteristics of both swaps and futures, but the future category fits better because perpetuals are standardized rather than bilateral like most swaps, and their pricing mechanism is more similar to futures. Past CFTC enforcement actions that labeled perps swaps created confusion, while a policy-setting CFTC division now calls them futures.
Perpetual futures LONG
Coinbase and Kalshi approved for Bitcoin perps.
The CFTC has already classified perpetual futures as futures and authorized Coinbase and Kalshi to offer the first true Bitcoin perpetual contracts on centralized exchanges. That gives these platforms early regulatory approval to participate in the new US crypto perpetual futures market, though CME's lawsuit seeks to undo the authorization.
COIN LONG
KALSHI LONG
BTC LONG
HIGH
16:25
Sep 05
Sep 05
Joseph Wang
16h
WTI
DIESEL 1ST
Global sovereign bonds
IEF
30-Year US Treasury Bond
▾
HIGH
Middle East conflict drives energy prices higher.
Joseph argues that oil and energy prices are likely to keep climbing because of escalating Middle East military conflict, and this creates serious upside risk for inflation. He notes US refined products like diesel have already hit an all-time high and that additional conflict is occurring as he records, so headline inflation could trend higher near term.
WTI LONG
DIESEL LONG
Middle East resolution would lift sovereign bonds.
He argues the main driver of the surge in global bond yields is Middle East energy prices, not US fiscal crisis, hyperscaler debt crowding out, or strong US growth. If the Iran war eventually resolves, he expects bond yields to fall sharply, implying sovereign bond prices would rally.
Global sovereign bonds WATCH
IEF WATCH
30-Year US Treasury Bond WATCH
HIGH
16:22
Sep 05
Sep 05
DIESEL 1ST
WTI 1ST
AAPL 1ST
U.S. technology sector
10-Year Treasury Note
▾
HIGH
Diesel and crude face supply-driven upside.
Diesel is in a distillate crisis because Ukraine has been striking Russian refineries and Russia is a key diesel exporter, while peak demand season is starting; crude is also elevated due to the Iran conflict. OPEC output increases are mostly theoretical because shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained.
DIESEL LONG
WTI LONG
Apple product cycle looks healthy.
Apple's upcoming product launch, especially the foldable iPhone Ultra, is supported by increased production volume requests to suppliers and an expected healthy initial launch of about 10 million units; Apple does not need to be first to win, and the new CEO's hardware ecosystem push can drive the next product cycle.
AAPL LONG
Tech valuations look attractive now.
U.S. technology valuations are below their long-term average and tech earnings are strong; non-tech is expensive because earnings are not coming through, so tech looks relatively attractive.
U.S. technology sector LONG
Rising capital needs push yields higher.
Enormous capital raising for data centers and AI plus record government borrowing and deficits mean the Treasury must compete for financing, likely pushing 10-year bond yields higher.
10-Year Treasury Note SHORT
Allied defense spending must increase.
Allies such as Canada have been free riding on U.S. defense and need to increase defense spending both for NORAD and as key NATO partners; China is the greatest strategic adversary, requiring stronger allied defense, technology, and trade cooperation.
ITA LONG
HIGH
15:36
Sep 05
Sep 05
Fed Funds Rate
SPY
XLE
KBE
XLK
▾
HIGH
Strong jobs report makes Fed hike likely.
The jobs report was even stronger than the payroll number suggests, with upward revisions and broad labor absorption confirming a robust economy; the market is correctly pricing that the Fed will raise rates, especially after Fed Chair Walsh signaled he is inclined to hike when data look strong.
Fed Funds Rate LONG
US earnings strength supports equities.
Earnings season grew about 55% year-over-year versus a typical 9%, boosted partly by one-time items but also by broad strength; Golub remains pretty optimistic and says valuations are low, so the equity market is not signaling stretched valuations or a crash.
SPY LONG
US oil exporter status boosts energy earnings.
Higher oil prices are normally seen as a negative, but the US is an oil exporter; the energy sector grew earnings roughly 140% and, even at only about 4% of the S&P 500, added significantly to overall earnings.
XLE LONG
Banks earnings beat on lending, IPOs.
Banks are doing enormous lending and IPO/capital markets activity, generating strong profits; estimates had not reflected this strength and banks delivered better-than-expected results.
KBE LONG
Tech valuations cheap versus non-tech.
US tech valuations are below their long-term average because earnings rose faster than prices; if anything is expensive, it is non-tech where earnings are not coming through, so tech offers relative value.
XLK LONG
US Non-Tech Sectors AVOID
Capital competition pushes ten-year yields higher.
Record AI/data center capital raises and direct financing must be added to the largest increase in government deficit borrowing; the two compete for capital and are likely to push the long end of the curve, especially ten-year bond yields, meaningfully higher.
10-year U.S. Treasury Yield LONG
HIGH
14:36
Sep 05
Sep 05
WTI
DIESEL 1ST
Oil tanker shipping
▾
HIGH
Oil and diesel rise on Hormuz disruption
Renewed U.S.-Iran escalation and strikes on Iranian crude carriers are driving oil prices and especially diesel costs back up. The risk is not just headline conflict but the physical difficulty of moving crude through the Strait of Hormuz, with shipping, insurance, and crewing all becoming harder, keeping upward pressure on energy prices.
WTI LONG
DIESEL LONG
Shipping is the real energy bottleneck
The real energy-market constraint is shipping and transportation rather than production. Vessels must safely transit the Strait of Hormuz, operators need Lloyd's of London insurance, and crews must be willing to sail, making tanker shipping a key bottleneck and a decision-useful risk/reward factor as the conflict drags on.
Oil tanker shipping WATCH
HIGH
13:54
Sep 05
Sep 05
ERUS 1ST
IRAN 1ST
▾
HIGH
Maximum economic pressure on Russia
Europe must apply maximum economic pressure on Russia because Moscow has not changed its war aims; the EU has 21 sanctions packages with a 22nd on the way, has sanctioned 700 Russian shadow ships, has sanctioned all Russian gas, and is cutting supply chains to stop Russia's war machine.
ERUS AVOID
Economic isolation of Iran works
The EU supports economic isolation of Iran and believes sanctions may work to prevent Iran's nuclear program; existing measures target the Revolutionary Guard and Iran's cooperation with Russia, and economic isolation actually works.
IRAN AVOID
HIGH
13:12
Sep 05
Sep 05
CVX
US oil companies
UGA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Venezuela deal blindsides US oil companies
US oil executives say they were blindsided by the Trump administration's Venezuela deal with North American Blue Energy Partners; the no-bid arrangement removes fields and lease packages from commercial talks and creates a supercharged US government-backed competitor, leaving incumbent oil companies with less opportunity in Venezuela.
CVX WATCH
US oil companies WATCH
Venezuela deal won't lower gasoline before midterms
The Venezuela deal is unlikely to bring gasoline prices down before the midterms because existing infrastructure is badly damaged, some fields must be developed from the ground up, and industry figures see a gradual production ramp over about five years rather than an immediate wave of new refined gasoline.
UGA LONG
HIGH
13:00
Sep 05
Sep 05
Milk Road Macro
19h
ETH
▾
HIGH
Ethereum wins as AI agents need finality.
As AI agents become revenue-producing units that may be delegated to access financial accounts, investors will need crypto rails with smart contracts, finality, and instant settlement to prevent rogue agents from draining resources. Ethereum is uniquely positioned because it is the largest smart-contract platform by wallets and activity, with network effects and financial institutions already building on it.
ETH LONG
HIGH
12:27
Sep 05
Sep 05
TECK 1ST
031980.KQ 1ST
030200.KQ 1ST
403870.KQ
060240.KQ 1ST
▾
HIGH
Own strong momentum semiconductor equipment leaders.
After the July rebound, the strongest leaders from the low have maintained their trends even as the KOSPI whipsawed. PSK Holdings, EO Technics, TCK, and HPSP are up 83-89% from their lows without breaking trend, showing real market leadership. The speaker argues stock trading is trend, and investors should own these momentum leaders rather than broken laggards.
TECK LONG
Own strong momentum semiconductor equipment leaders.
EO Technics, PSK Holdings, HPSP, and Park Systems are among the few Korean equipment companies that actually supply TSMC, and TSMC is currently spending heavily on advanced packaging. These companies are globally competitive leaders, not second-tier domestic suppliers, so they can withstand macro pressures such as won strength better than ordinary export stocks.
031980.KQ LONG
030200.KQ LONG
403870.KQ LONG
Buy TSMC-supplying Korean equipment makers.
EO Technics, PSK Holdings, HPSP, and Park Systems are among the few Korean equipment companies that actually supply TSMC, and TSMC is currently spending heavily on advanced packaging. These companies are globally competitive leaders, not second-tier domestic suppliers, so they can withstand macro pressures such as won strength better than ordinary export stocks.
060240.KQ LONG
Avoid broken-trend shipbuilders.
Shipbuilders cannot perform while the won has appreciated about 15% against the dollar over two months. At current 1,350 won levels, export companies are already under pressure; shipbuilders are essentially powerless in the face of the currency. This is a distinct macro headwind from the chart-based trend argument.
042660.KS AVOID
010140.KS AVOID
009540.KS AVOID
329180.KS AVOID
Foreign futures support KOSPI rebound.
Foreign investors have accumulated 7.2 trillion won in September futures net buying since June 12, and the 60-day moving average has crossed above the 120-day moving average. Combined with 2026 earnings upgrades, won strength making Korea attractive in foreign currency terms, and historical patterns showing more than 51% probability that KOSPI holds above a 5% decline after such golden crosses, the speaker expects KOSPI to turn upward around Chuseok.
EWY LONG
Robotis is robot sector leader.
Robotis is showing leadership within the robot sector by entering the top 20 Korean weekly gainers while many other robot stocks fell. The speaker says Robotis is saying 'I am the robot leader' and notes that one competing robot stock that rose is loss-making, so selective quality matters.
108490.KQ LONG
Prefer Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
Samsung's HBM share is recovering from 21% to 33% while SK Hynix's share is converging from 58% to 50%; HBM4 moves base die production into foundry, where Samsung has an advantage. Memory stocks trade around 5x P/E; if war ends and long-term rates fall, the speaker sees 6-7x and 20-30% upside. Among pure memory names, he prefers Samsung Electronics as the safer pick because it also has foundry, smartphones, and on-device AI.
000660.KS LONG
005930.KS LONG
Samsung SDI leads AI power-grid batteries.
Samsung SDI is the only major Korean battery maker with genuine profitability before US AMPC subsidies; it is transitioning from EV batteries to AI power-grid ESS. US ESS demand is projected to grow from 100GW in 2026 to 500GW by 2030, and Samsung SDI's US ESS share target rises from 7% to 35% on prismatic LFP, Indiana local production, long-term contracts, and Section 301 tariffs. The sale of Samsung Display shares raised 4.45 trillion won without dilution, removing near-term cash/rights-issue risk. Scenario values range from 310,000 to 1,070,000 won, with the speaker seeing 600,000-1,000,000 as possible.
006400.KS LONG
AI hardware leads on real earnings.
In a flat S&P 500 week, money clearly rotated into AI hardware where earnings are confirming demand. Dell rose 14.9% after AI server revenue and guidance were raised sharply, and NVIDIA gained 5.9% on its MediaTek partnership and NVLink Fusion adoption. Semiconductors and AI hardware led while software lagged.
DELL LONG
Energy stocks benefit from oil spike.
WTI surged more than 9% during the week on U.S.-Iran conflict and Hormuz supply disruption fears. Within the S&P 500, energy stocks such as Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and Exxon Mobil advanced with oil, showing the market is pricing upstream energy strength.
CVX LONG
XOM LONG
AI hardware leads on real earnings.
NVIDIA's CUDA platform and active M&A strategy are extending its ecosystem beyond GPU sales. The company has invested in OpenAI, CoreWeave, Hugging Face, and MediaTek, and next-year revenue is guided toward $673bn with massive operating cash flow. Even a cyclical sales decline could be absorbed by pausing shareholder returns, leaving the cash-flow power intact.
NVDA LONG
GE Vernova expands power-grid exposure.
GE Vernova gained 3.3% after securing a contract to participate in restoring Venezuela's grid, and the U.S. government has outlined power capacity expansion. This broadens GE Vernova's non-data-center power infrastructure market, adding to its grid investment exposure.
GEV LONG
Avoid high-valuation software on rates.
As U.S. 10-year yields rose toward 4.78%, high-valuation software sold off: Palantir fell despite winning a Titan ground station production contract, while Palo Alto and Datadog also dropped sharply. The pressure is valuation and rate-driven, not company-specific, so high-multiple software is being avoided.
PLTR AVOID
PANW AVOID
DDOG AVOID
Energy stocks benefit from oil spike.
ConocoPhillips is a low-cost upstream producer with a strong asset base including Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken, Marathon Oil integration, Willow growth, LNG optionality, and aggressive buybacks. However the valuation already reflects premium quality at 6.2% free cash flow yield and 6.7x EV/EBITDA, so the stock is a watch rather than a fresh buy; the next move depends on oil direction and actual free cash flow improvement.
COP LONG
Own machine tool supplier DN Automotive.
Semiconductor equipment expansion is constrained by raw materials and skilled workers, but precision machine tools are essential to build the equipment. DN Automotive, formerly Donghwa Tire, has grown 10x in sales and market cap by supplying machine tools and related precision machining, and the speaker views it as a way to diversify beyond direct semiconductor equipment makers.
DN Automotive LONG
Marvell selected as next-week gainer.
Selected as Claire's next-week expected top pick in the show's weekly stock-selection segment.
MRVL LONG
Pearl Abyss selected as next-week gainer.
Selected as Taban's next-week expected top pick in the show's weekly stock-selection segment; earlier he noted Pearl Abyss has a DLC release scheduled for October 15 and he personally bought it.
263750.KQ LONG
Adobe selected as next-week gainer.
Selected as Bok's next-week expected top pick in the show's weekly stock-selection segment.
ADBE LONG
HIGH
12:22
Sep 05
Sep 05
AAPL 1ST
▾
HIGH
Apple foldable iPhone demand looks healthy.
Apple's rumored foldable iPhone Ultra should see healthy launch demand: foldable devices are popular globally, Apple has increased production volume requests to its supply chain, and initial launch-cycle volumes could be around 10 million units. Woo Jin Ho adds that Apple never needed to be first to compete successfully against Samsung.
AAPL LONG
HIGH
11:52
Sep 05
Sep 05
DIESEL 1ST
WTI
▾
HIGH
Diesel market in distillates crisis.
Diesel is in a distillates crisis because Ukraine has repeatedly struck Russian refineries and Russia has banned diesel exports, leaving the world with tight refining capacity; markets are catching up to this tightness right as peak demand season begins.
DIESEL LONG
Crude prices likely hold higher.
OPEC output increases are largely theoretical because shipping constraints through the Strait of Hormuz and limited bypass capacity leave little additional export capacity, so announced production boosts are unlikely to translate into lower oil prices.
WTI LONG
HIGH
11:00
Sep 05
Sep 05
KOSDAQ Index
EWY
SOX
Korean semiconductor equipment and materials sector
Korean robotics sector
▾
HIGH
KOSDAQ over KOSPI next week
From next week the market should favor KOSDAQ over KOSPI. KOSDAQ is only about 3% below its 60-day moving average resistance and would open room for more active sector rotation on a breakout, whereas KOSPI has 60-day, 120-day and prior high resistance that requires foreign buying in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. Robotics already triggered the KOSDAQ rebound, so KOSDAQ sectors should stay the focus.
KOSDAQ Index LONG
EWY WATCH
US semis lead, Korean semis follow
Despite the strong US employment print and rate-hike fear, the Philadelphia semiconductor index surged 3.38% while major indices fell. AI hardware/memory names such as Nvidia, Broadcom, Micron, AMD, Intel, Lam Research, AMAT, KLA, SanDisk and Western Digital rallied as inflows differentiated toward AI infrastructure, supporting Korean semiconductor strength next week.
SOX LONG
Korean semi equipment leads next week
Semiconductor materials/parts/equipment is the most likely next-week leader in Korea. US semiconductor equipment names surged and KOSPI night futures rose over 4%; Korean institutions across trust, pension and private funds bought the group during Thursday's sharp dip; many KOSDAQ semi equipment/material names have cleared moving averages and have little overhead resistance. The sector has more elasticity than Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, and an ETF may be used.
Korean semiconductor equipment and materials sector LONG
Hold robots, wait for pullback
Robotics is the trigger that confirms a KOSDAQ rally. Robot stocks surged together and should continue as the first rotation leader, but after a sharp Friday, new buying is somewhat burdensome; existing holders should stay and new entrants should wait for a pullback before the next leg.
Korean robotics sector LONG
Prepare biotech and secondary batteries next
After robotics and semiconductor equipment, the next rotation batters on KOSDAQ are likely biotech/pharma and secondary batteries. Both were relatively weak in the latest order, so investors who want to prepare for the next turn can start accumulating these two sectors before they move.
Korean secondary battery sector LONG
Korean Biotech/Pharmaceuticals LONG
Prefer power, nuclear, construction leaders
Rather than steel or LNG pipe, limited rotation capital should be concentrated in power infrastructure, nuclear and construction leaders. Sanil Electric, Hyundai Engineering & Construction and Doosan Enerbility are representative large-cap leaders, and one or two names are enough for the setup.
034020.KS LONG
000720.KS LONG
US power equipment remains strong
Within US equities, AI infrastructure outside big tech was strong: power equipment and utility-type names such as Constellation Energy rallied, and Bloom/Blue Energy jumped after S&P 500 inclusion. Similar power equipment issues should keep reflecting positive news next week.
US power equipment sector LONG
CEG LONG
Tesla drop is profit-taking, still positive
Tesla's 6% drop is profit-taking after a run-up into the Cybercab event. The event has now been formally unveiled and expectations for expansion remain, so Tesla is still viewed positively.
TSLA LONG
Big tech weak as rates rise
Big tech was weak because rising rate expectations are unfavorable for big tech; the market differentiated away from big tech and toward AI hardware and power equipment, so big tech is the lagging side of this rotation.
US big tech sector AVOID
Financials work as rate-hike defensive
Financials remain a rate-hike beneficiary and keep rallying whenever attention fades; holding one financial as a defensive position within the rotation is reasonable.
KBE LONG
Refining earnings keep improving next year
Korean refining/oil earnings should keep improving through the first half of next year, so existing refining positions can be carried.
Korean oil refining sector LONG
Shipbuilding okay but lower priority
Shipbuilding is still okay but there is doubt about how fast it can move; existing holders may keep positions, but it is lower priority than semiconductor equipment, robotics, biotech/batteries and power/nuclear.
Korean shipbuilding sector LONG
Crypto rally has staying power
Crypto sentiment remains good and the recent crypto strength should have continuation.
Cryptocurrencies LONG
Trade hair loss on market dips
Hair loss treatment stocks are a short-term trading vehicle to look at when the market pulls back.
Korean hair loss treatment theme LONG
Trim foldable/iPhone momentum before launch
Foldable/iPhone-related momentum is an event trade ahead of the September 9 Apple launch; Apple is unlikely to ship the rumored 10 million foldable units, so holders should trim before the launch event.
Korean foldable/iPhone supplier theme AVOID
HIGH
11:00
Sep 05
Sep 05
Fernando Ulrich
21h
ARGT
EWZ FLIP
UGA 1ST
ECH 1ST
DIESEL
▾
HIGH
Argentina and Chile are improving.
He sees real winds of change in Argentina and Chile, with renewed hope because those nations are moving in the correct policy direction and can escape decades of economic and social decline.
ARGT LONG
ECH LONG
Brazil is in grave institutional crisis.
He sees Brazil as being in its most serious institutional and political crisis in republican history, citing the Banco Master scandal and loss of institutional credibility, and says this will have negative impacts on elections, the economy, society, and the country's future.
EWZ AVOID
Diesel and gasoline prices are surging.
He warns that US August CPI may accelerate because diesel and gasoline prices have surged over the last 40 days, which could spook the Fed and support higher interest-rate expectations.
UGA LONG
DIESEL LONG
Nvidia is AI boom's main beneficiary.
Nvidia's acquisition of Hugging Face shows it is not only the main beneficiary of the AI race but is actively keeping the boom going by investing in, buying, or financing customers and suppliers, reflecting its strong AI position and commitment to maintaining momentum.
NVDA LONG
German industry is losing competitiveness.
German industry is losing competitiveness due to the energy shock from the Ukraine war, the loss of Russian gas, and rising Chinese competition, with companies pushing to restore a 40-hour workweek and Volkswagen planning another 50,000 job cuts while studying plant closures.
EWG AVOID
China offers more economic freedom than Brazil.
He argues China has more economic freedom than Brazil, is easier for doing business, and prefers China's public spending model that invests in productivity-enhancing infrastructure instead of Brazil's transfer-heavy state spending.
FXI LONG
OranjeBTC is well managed and oversold.
OranjeBTC is in an excellent moment, is well managed, has a very healthy capital structure with low leverage, is launching new products, and the recent share-price weakness is technical and seller-driven by the Winklevoss twins rather than a fundamental problem.
ORNBTC3.SA LONG
Chinese EVs will keep flooding Brazil.
He believes the flood of Chinese electric vehicles into Brazil is an irreversible trend; current very low prices will not last forever as the Chinese currency appreciates, but the penetration of Chinese EVs remains.
Chinese EV makers LONG
Chinese yuan should keep appreciating.
He calls the Chinese yuan one of the only currencies that keeps appreciating since Trump took office, recently reaching around 6.71 to the dollar, and expects it will need to appreciate further.
CNY LONG
HIGH
10:00
Sep 05
Sep 05
Thread Guy
22h
BTC
AMC
PUMP FLIP
HOOD
SOL
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin to 81K with on-chain euphoria
He says he made a call a month and a half ago that Bitcoin would run toward 81K or so and that it would be euphoria on-chain; now the on-chain turbo bull looks like the most beautiful thing he has ever seen, implying the move continues.
BTC LONG
AMC coin is best stock-meme play
The AMC tokenized stock coin is maybe the best coin ever because the public fight between AMC's CEO and Vlad is electric, generated huge on-chain volume, squeezed AMC stock pre-market, and shows the market wants stock memes. He expects the stock-token/stock-meme narrative to keep working.
AMC LONG
Pump flanked by Robinhood, fees crumbling
Pump is being flanked by Robinhood chain while it fights the FOMO social trading war, and Pump fees just hit the lowest level since August 16th. He sold a third of his Pump holdings and plans to sell the next clip, expecting competitive pressure to continue.
PUMP AVOID
Robinhood stock-token strategy is winning
Robinhood and Vlad are executing the tokenized stock and meme listing strategy perfectly with no leaks or mistakes, using the biggest retail exchange and strong stock-token demand. He believes Robinhood has struck a goldmine and the Robinhood chain momentum should continue.
HOOD LONG
Solana lacks exchange, faces brutal competition
Solana is in a brutal spot because it has no exchange, trading apps abstract chains, and assets are not deploying to Solana. His thesis has downgraded from hub of on-chain experimentation to hoping for trickle-down liquidity, which he says will not work.
SOL AVOID
HIGH
08:00
Sep 05
Sep 05
SOLAR 1ST
Vehicle-to-grid (V2G)
ESS 1ST
POWL 1ST
XLY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Solar now covers peak summer demand.
Costs for solar and battery storage have fallen dramatically, and even the combined cost of solar plus ESS is now competitive against other power generation sources; this makes the solar-plus-storage combination an economically viable generation option and supports further deployment.
SOLAR LONG
EV batteries provide distributed grid storage.
Electric vehicles can act as distributed batteries through vehicle-to-grid: they charge when solar power is abundant, discharge to the grid in the evening, allow drivers to reduce or eliminate charging costs, and support faster EV adoption; overseas energy providers are already bundling V2G with tariffs and chargers.
Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) LONG
XLY LONG
Solar plus ESS now economically competitive.
For regions with excess solar generation such as Honam and Jeju, the most technically feasible solutions are to connect renewable generation to high-demand areas through transmission or to install ESS to store midday surplus for evening use; these infrastructure needs will grow as renewable penetration rises.
ESS LONG
ESS and transmission solve solar oversupply.
For regions with excess solar generation such as Honam and Jeju, the most technically feasible solutions are to connect renewable generation to high-demand areas through transmission or to install ESS to store midday surplus for evening use; these infrastructure needs will grow as renewable penetration rises.
POWL LONG
Perovskite tandem solar is next-generation PV.
Crystalline silicon single-junction solar cell efficiency is near its practical limit, while perovskite-silicon tandem cells have already demonstrated efficiency above 35%; countries are now racing to commercialize them, and higher efficiency can reduce land area and system costs.
Perovskite tandem solar cells WATCH
Efficiency market expands with public financing.
The energy efficiency market is held back because projects with 5-7 year payback periods require large upfront capital while future energy savings are uncertain, causing companies to hesitate; public mechanisms that bridge this uncertainty have historically expanded the market, so such enablers should create growth in energy efficiency.
Energy efficiency market WATCH
HIGH
08:00
Sep 05
Sep 05
KOSPI 1ST
WTI
SMH 1ST
AI Semiconductors
NVDA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Korean stocks rebound next week.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which is directly correlated with Korean equities, showed strong overnight gains and SK Hynix ADR surged, so the Korean market is expected to open and trade meaningfully higher next week.
KOSPI LONG
Oil likely stabilizes despite supply risks.
Oil is the biggest variable, but supply chains are adapting to Hormuz risk through Red Sea routings, AIS transponder workarounds and secured Venezuelan barrels, so oil prices are likely to stabilize rather than spike further; falling oil would also reduce the rationale for further Fed tightening.
WTI WATCH
High rates won't stop AI semiconductors.
Unlike consumer-driven semiconductor cycles, data centers now account for over 60% of semiconductor demand; hyperscalers can tolerate 10% corporate borrowing costs because their operating margins remain in the mid-to-high 30% range, and AI is removing real economic inefficiencies, so 10-year Treasury yields around 4.8% are a volatility factor but not a reason to reduce AI infrastructure and semiconductor exposure.
SMH LONG
Semiconductor inflection point is near.
The semiconductor correction is close to an inflection point; pessimism is focused on negative free cash flow and China competition, but Nvidia's non-hyperscaler data center revenue doubled from $20B to $40B and now nearly matches its $48B hyperscaler revenue, showing AI semiconductor demand is broadening to enterprises, sovereigns and neoclouds.
AI Semiconductors LONG
NVDA LONG
Google Amazon custom AI chips accelerate.
Google and Amazon are moving from internal AI accelerators to external sales: Google has formed JVs with Blackstone/Apollo/Broadcom and will supply TPUs to customers such as Anthropic, while Amazon is now selling its own chips externally; for Google this can turn free cash flow positive, and Broadcom is positioned in customization and networking for these AI data center builds.
GOOGL LONG
AMZN LONG
AVGO LONG
External AI chips drive memory supercycle.
Because every custom AI accelerator still requires memory, Google's and Amazon's external AI chip push is highly positive for memory semiconductor demand; this is why SK Hynix ADR and Micron surged despite higher rates and oil prices.
MU LONG
Memory prices offset strong won.
Strong won will hurt weaker companies, but memory makers are relatively defensive: dollar-based memory prices are still rising 10-20% QoQ in Q3 and high-value HBM4 mix is increasing, so Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix should largely offset FX headwinds and report more resilient earnings than the market fears.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Avoid small-cap semiconductor suppliers on FX.
Rapid won appreciation to 1,350 and possibly the 1,300s will create FX-related losses in Q3 for small/mid semiconductor materials, components and equipment companies with weak balance sheets or excessive hedging; some may swing to net losses and suffer sharp one-day stock drops, so investors should filter these names and manage earnings risk ahead of the reporting season.
Korean semiconductor materials/parts/equipment small caps AVOID
HIGH
06:00
Sep 05
Sep 05
03:35
Sep 05
Sep 05
SILVER 1ST
GLD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Retirees should own physical gold and silver.
Retirement savers should think like central banks and own physical gold and silver as non-correlated diversification to protect purchasing power against persistent inflation, government debt, and deficit spending; fixed income and homes can be unreliable, and retirees cannot afford to sell risk assets in down markets, so precious metals should be accumulated rather than trying to time Fed moves or waiting for a pullback.
SILVER LONG
Retirees should own physical gold and silver.
Gold has a structural bid from central banks that are diversifying away from the weaponized dollar; annual central bank gold buying doubled to over 1,000 tons, and central banks now hold more gold than U.S. Treasuries for the first time since 1996. The macro conditions for gold to reach $5,000—geopolitical problems, deglobalization, global debt, interest costs, and government spending—are already in place, so temporary oil/dollar-driven pullbacks are buying opportunities rather than reasons to wait.
GLD LONG
HIGH
02:00
Sep 05
Sep 05
005930.KS
000660.KS
WONIK IPS
095610.KQ
030200.KQ 1ST
▾
HIGH
Korean memory leaders deeply undervalued, re-rating
Citi turned more positive on Korean semiconductor companies after receiving heavy buy-side questions about tariff risk. Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are trading at downturn-like valuations with 12-month forward P/E ratios near 4.0-4.3x, while Nomura also calls the undervaluation severe and maintains much higher target prices. The memory cycle is tightening, and the speaker expects re-rating when foreign supply returns, though near-term supply may be slow.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Korean semiconductor equipment cycle still strong
Semiconductor equipment and materials names may outperform Samsung Electronics and SK hynix in the near term. Samsung and SK hynix are expanding DRAM capacity sharply, the equipment cycle is still in its early stage, second-quarter equipment earnings missed only because deliveries were delayed, and order backlogs rose 135% year over year while share prices fell about 30% from June. The speaker specifically noted Wonik IPS, Tes, and EO Technics as names to watch.
WONIK IPS LONG
095610.KQ LONG
030200.KQ LONG
Tesla Energy benefits from AI power demand
Tesla Energy/Megapack is becoming a major beneficiary of AI datacenter power demand. Tesla is not just an EV company; its Megapack large-battery business is growing faster than its EV business. The new Texas plant started battery pack production in August, and Megapack supplies xAI, which has AI computing contracts with Anthropic and Google. Tesla battery revenue is rising sharply.
TSLA LONG
Korean battery makers win US ESS boom
US battery demand is exploding because AI datacenters are driving ESS demand. Tesla's Texas plant has about 50GW annual capacity, and Korean battery companies are set to supply roughly 23GW of that volume. The speaker says the core Korean secondary battery names to watch are Samsung SDI, LG Energy Solution, L&F, EcoPro, and EcoPro BM.
066970.KS LONG
247540.KQ LONG
086520.KQ LONG
Korean battery makers win US ESS boom
Samsung SDI is the top pick in Korean battery/ESS because it had lagged in US ESS but is now repositioning. It sold its Samsung Display stake to raise cash, is acquiring the GM joint venture, and plans to convert that capacity to ESS lines. Its production capacity can rise sharply, and it trades at about half the valuation of LG Energy Solution relative to fundamentals and capacity.
006400.KS LONG
KOSPI forward PER is extremely low
The KOSPI 12-month forward P/E has fallen to about 5x, below 2003 levels, indicating the Korean market is very undervalued. The speaker views this as a backdrop for potential re-rating if semiconductor and memory momentum gets reflected.
EWY LONG
HIGH
02:00
Sep 05
Sep 05
SPY 1ST
KBE 1ST
TLT FLIP
XLK 1ST
EWY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Liquidity expansion keeps asset markets supported
The old Fed-only liquidity lens is broken; Treasury spending from the cash account and reverse repo kept market liquidity abundant even as the Fed ran quantitative tightening. Going forward broad money and bank credit creation, not just Fed base money, will expand liquidity, so asset markets should remain supported and buyable on weakness.
SPY LONG
US bank deregulation unlocks credit creation
US bank deregulation, including SLR and LCR relief plus Fed standing liquidity backstops, is designed to get banks to lend rather than sit on cash. That lending creates credit and broad money, which is positive for US bank franchises and the wider liquidity cycle.
KBE LONG
Treasury will defend long-end yields
The US Treasury is actively managing the long end: buybacks begin September 9, long-dated issuance will be reduced while short-term bill supply increases, and the government is committed to defending long-term yields in the 5-5.5% area. If that cap holds, long-term rates fall and long-term Treasury prices recover.
TLT LONG
AI cycle is still early, not peak
AI is not a peak; demand is still early. Like the 1990s PC-to-internet buildout, data center infrastructure spending is not yet producing productivity, but once AI is combined with agents, robots and industry applications, productivity and earnings can broaden across the AI ecosystem.
XLK LONG
Korea broadens beyond Samsung and SK hynix
From the second half into the first half of next year the core mechanism is broadening: money that was concentrated in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, or in semiconductors, will diffuse across the broad Korean market. The era of concentrating only in the two semiconductor leaders is ending.
EWY LONG
Samsung/SK hynix recover via shareholder return
The memory cycle is not at its peak and Samsung Electronics and SK hynix should recover most prior highs, but the next leg depends on shareholder return. If buybacks and dividends build trust with investors, Korean semiconductor PER multiples can re-rate even as operating profit plateaus.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Defense and nuclear benefit from money diffusion
Defense and nuclear sectors were not bad; earnings continued, but money was drained into semiconductors. As semiconductor profit growth plateaus and liquidity broadens, these fundamentally stable sectors should benefit from money diffusion.
Korean defense sector LONG
Korean nuclear power sector LONG
Won strength supports Korean economy and equities
Current KRW strength is not enough to break semiconductor revenue, and it is actually positive for the broader Korean economy and equity market because many Korean SMEs carry heavy dollar debt. A stronger won relieves that bottom-tier stress and supports the domestic economy.
USD/KRW LONG
Next bucket is Korean semiconductor equipment/materials
Hyperscaler capex first filled the memory bucket; now Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are raising capex, so the next bucket is Korean semiconductor equipment and materials, which is already climbing.
Korean semiconductor equipment/materials LONG
HIGH
01:00
Sep 05
Sep 05
IWF
TEM 1ST
KOSPI 200
KOSDAQ 150
SPY
▾
HIGH
Wait for GAAP operating profit inflection in US growth stocks.
For innovative US growth companies that can change the world, investors should not buy too early while they are deeply loss-making. Palantir is the template: after its first GAAP operating profit quarter in Q1 2023, the stock began its real repricing even though the market bottomed earlier in late 2022. If a company will not earn within three years, investors should wait. Once operating profit inflects, entering even then can still capture a 10x move. This timing framework is directly relevant to evaluating Tempus AI.
IWF WATCH
Accumulate Tempus AI on integrated data platform.
Tempus AI is building a precision-medicine operating system, not just a diagnostics business. Its diagnostic testing creates patient touchpoints and data, and that data is de-identified and sold to pharma for drug development and clinical trial design, creating a second revenue stream. Recent M&A extends the patient relationship from early cancer risk through post-treatment MRD monitoring. Industry tailwinds include Moderna's personalized mRNA cancer therapy, SoftBank's Japan JV, and Ark Invest's large position; Google Cloud's usage-linked financing also aligns incentives. Q2 cancer test volume rose 31% and data revenue rose 28%, and adjusted EBITDA turned positive, though GAAP operating losses and SBC remain large. Claire views the growth direction positively and suggests gradual accumulation rather than chasing all at once, with GAAP operating profit inflection as the key confirmation.
TEM LONG
Trade Korean momentum with Bollinger breakout counts.
Using Bollinger Band breakout counts for KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150, Korea behaves as a momentum market. When upper-band breakouts exceed 30 and lower-band breakdowns exceed 50, buying and holding has historically worked because retail-driven flows chase hot themes. When both upper and lower breakout counts shrink, the market is in a quiet phase and participants are already cautious; the current quiet phase warrants monitoring and caution. The indicator is a market temperature gauge, not a prediction, and should be used with other indicators.
KOSPI 200 WATCH
KOSDAQ 150 WATCH
Buy US indices after cold mean-reverting setups.
US equities are mean-reverting in this indicator, unlike Korea. When upper-band breakouts are numerous, US markets tend to rest or pull back. When lower-band breakdowns are numerous, and especially when the index has drawn down about 15% or more, buying S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 has historically had about a 74% win rate. If the market does not pull back to -15%, the data suggests not buying. Daily Bollinger monitoring is less useful; VIX or index-level fear can suffice. The indicator should be used as a market temperature gauge rather than exact daily timing.
SPY WATCH
^NDX WATCH
HIGH
23:52
Sep 04
Sep 04
US technology/AI market
AI Data Center Infrastructure
NVDA
San Francisco residential real estate
XLE 1ST
▾
HIGH
Tech euphoria has roughly three more years.
Chamath argues the current market is in the early part of a real tech/AI euphoria cycle, not yet 1999. He says the underlying market realities are real but participants are guessing how far forward to price them, and he does not see it stopping, expecting roughly three more years of this environment.
US technology/AI market LONG
Data center infrastructure revenue is real.
Unlike the dot-com bubble that was based on non-dollar metrics, the current AI boom is showing actual revenue and profit growth in data centers, infrastructure, networking and equipment, with real dollars flowing rather than speculative utilization.
AI Data Center Infrastructure LONG
Nvidia is winning open-source enterprise compute.
With the Hugging Face transaction, Nvidia is becoming the largest open-source AI provider and the #1 competitor to OpenAI and Anthropic for enterprise compute. Jensen can offer sovereign racks and cut token prices 80-90% because he makes money on hardware, enabling the US to blow past China by end-2027.
NVDA LONG
Sell San Francisco residential real estate now.
David Sacks says San Francisco real estate is in a bonkers, euphoric repricing driven by the upcoming Anthropic IPO and OpenAI to follow. He is selling all of his SF properties within the next six months because he feels the IPO clock is ticking and it is the perfect time to clear out.
San Francisco residential real estate AVOID
Venezuelan heavy crude benefits Gulf refiners.
Sacks argues the Venezuela deal is win-win because it secures heavy crude that is complementary to the light sweet crude from US fracking. US Gulf refineries were built for heavy crude and can turn it into diesel and other distillates, so they are structurally well positioned.
XLE LONG
San Francisco ultra-luxury real estate may reprice.
Jason argues San Francisco's ultra-luxury housing market could easily move from around $3,000/ft to $5,000/ft, repricing toward London/Paris/Hong Kong levels because the Anthropic IPO alone is four times all prior SF IPO wealth, inventory is tiny, and local restrictions prevent enough building.
San Francisco ultra-luxury real estate LONG
Dynamic AI cyber defense becomes stronger.
Friedberg argues the world's software and cyber defense infrastructure is shifting from static code to dynamically generated, moving-target defenses. As a result, AI-powered cyber defense will become stronger than offensive AI agents, making cybersecurity a structural winner.
Cybersecurity / AI cyber defense LONG
HIGH
23:30
Sep 04
Sep 04
SPY
005930.KS
000660.KS
EWY
KOSDAQ small/mid parts/materials exporters
▾
HIGH
Rate hike is not structural equity bear.
Even if the Fed raises rates, history shows US equities typically fall about 10% before the first hike and 15% around it, but then rally on average 45% afterward. Because a rate hike signals the economy is not weak, investors should not fear rate hikes and should maintain a long equity bias.
SPY LONG
Hold Samsung and SK hynix long-term.
Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are being sold by panicked retail investors and passive foreign flows, but long-term foreign buyers are accumulating the same names. Fundamentals and shareholder-return improvements remain acceptable for long-term accumulation. Short-term traders should reduce because the range has narrowed, but long-term holders should hold or add rather than dump.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Hold Korean equities, long-term accumulation continues.
Korean equities are under short-term supply pressure from foreign program selling and weak retail sentiment, but long-term foreign investors are quietly accumulating under the surface. Lee argues the correct stance is to hold positions rather than panic-sell, because the visible selling is not matched by a fundamental breakdown and long-term accumulation is expanding.
EWY LONG
Rapid won rise hurts small-cap exporters.
The won's rapid appreciation from the 1,500 area to 1,350 is too fast. Large-cap exporters with global production are less exposed, but KOSDAQ small/mid parts and materials companies are vulnerable because a rapid currency decline can hit their operating profits, so investors should exercise caution with that segment.
KOSDAQ small/mid parts/materials exporters AVOID
Favor tech, watch banks for rates.
Traditional rate-based sector formulas have broken recently, so rather than chasing rate beneficiaries mechanically, Lee suggests two-way positioning: if rate-hike fears ease, semiconductors and technology stocks move most; if rate-hike concerns return, banks and insurance can gradually reflect higher rates.
Korean semiconductor/tech stocks LONG
KBE WATCH
HIGH
23:12
Sep 04
Sep 04
WTI
UGA
DIESEL 1ST
UNG
GLD
▾
HIGH
Record crude, gasoline, diesel prices temporary.
McGlone argues the record-high prices in crude oil, gasoline, and diesel are temporary. Gasoline typically falls in the second half of the year as fuel blends switch, the US surplus of crude oil and fuels is reaching a record, the Western Hemisphere is becoming the price maker, and these petroleum markets are highly correlated and rarely stay up long. He sees the bigger risk as prices falling.
WTI SHORT
UGA SHORT
DIESEL SHORT
Natural gas collapse signals lower prices.
McGlone views natural gas as a key indicator for US heat and electricity costs, and notes the January natural gas futures price just fell to its lowest since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 and is down nearly 20% on the year. He says this points to lower energy prices and that natural gas led the way lower in 2023 and 2024.
UNG SHORT
Gold too expensive; sell precious metals.
McGlone turns bearish on precious metals. He says gold is facing very high interest rates, is at its highest level versus the T-bond index in 40 years, and has become too expensive. He has selling inclinations in gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, and thinks gold may be stuck in a range for years if Treasury bonds are the guide.
GLD SHORT
SILVER SHORT
PPLT SHORT
PALL SHORT
Bitcoin is stock puppet; expect lower.
McGlone calls bitcoin a 'stock puppet' that has shifted from a stud to a dud. He says bitcoin has only matched the S&P 500 on a performance basis since 2021, has unlimited supply, and that its glory days are over. He fully expects bitcoin to go lower, especially if the stock market does.
BTC SHORT
HIGH
23:11
Sep 04
Sep 04
CNBC
1d
STOCKS
Speculative single-digit stocks
XBI
SPY
actively managed mutual funds
▾
HIGH
Young investors should favor stocks over bonds.
Younger investors should be almost entirely in stocks and avoid bonds until at least their mid-50s, because over the last 40 years stocks have been the right way to grow wealth and young people have decades to ride through down markets.
STOCKS LONG
Young investors can take more risk.
Investors in their 20s can afford to take much more risk, including speculative single-digit stocks and tiny biotech companies, because if they lose money they have decades in the workforce to earn it back; older investors need more caution.
Speculative single-digit stocks LONG
XBI LONG
Use low-cost S&P 500 index funds.
A low-cost S&P 500 index fund is the best passive core holding for most investors, especially inside restricted 401k plans, because it has ultra-low fees and lets participants capture broad market performance without picking individual stocks.
SPY LONG
Avoid actively managed mutual funds.
Actively managed mutual funds are a bad deal for most investors because managers are paid based on assets under management rather than performance, most underperform their benchmarks, and high fees eat any outperformance.
actively managed mutual funds AVOID
Avoid sector ETFs for stock pickers.
Individual investors should avoid sector-based mutual funds and ETFs because a diversified fund should already provide adequate exposure, and if an investor is going to take the time to play sectors, they are better off picking individual stocks.
Sector ETFs AVOID
Most ETFs are for trading, not investing.
Most ETFs should be treated as trading vehicles rather than long-term investments because many rebalance daily, which can erode long-term performance and cause losses even when the investor is right; the main exceptions are GLD and S&P 500 ETFs.
ETFs AVOID
GLD is simple gold exposure.
GLD is an ETF he likes as a simple way to play gold, making it one of the few ETF exceptions he endorses for investors.
GLD LONG
Prefer Eli Lilly over Bristol-Myers.
Investors should trim dominant winners such as Eli Lilly and Apple so a portfolio does not become overly concentrated in one company; even the best companies were hit in the 2022 pullback, so reducing position size manages risk.
LLY LONG
AAPL AVOID
Prefer Eli Lilly over Bristol-Myers.
Cramer prefers Eli Lilly over Bristol-Myers because Lilly's growth rate makes him less worried about its price/earnings ratio, implying the growth justifies the valuation.
BMY AVOID
HIGH
23:00
Sep 04
Sep 04
Korean secondary battery sector
ESS 1ST
SOLAR 1ST
EWY
000660.KS
▾
HIGH
Secondary batteries/ESS rise on data-center power needs.
Secondary batteries are emerging as a standout sector while semiconductors pause. Data center construction is being delayed because power infrastructure takes far longer than the data center itself, and data centers require uninterruptible power. Renewable energy needs energy storage systems to be viable, and solar is the fastest near-term solution, especially as the US avoids Chinese products and related demand surges. The theme is backed by actual earnings improvement and valuation expansion, not just narrative.
Korean secondary battery sector LONG
ESS LONG
SOLAR LONG
Use September weakness as October buying opportunity.
September Korean market weakness is driven by known supply and event risks such as Anthropic's IPO, a stronger won, semiconductor earnings cuts, Fed rate uncertainty, Middle East tensions, and pre-Chuseok caution. Lee views these as volatility factors rather than a trend change. After the FOMC decision and Chuseok, and with political pressure not to damage markets into the U.S. midterms, September's excessive caution can become October's upward catalyst. He suggests using September corrections as opportunities rather than reducing positions into October.
EWY LONG
Semiconductor target cuts are FX, not demand.
Citi and domestic brokerages are cutting price targets for Korean memory semiconductor names such as SK hynix because the stronger won trims reported earnings. Lee argues this is a currency translation issue, not a deterioration in the underlying semiconductor business. The market is already absorbing the bad news in advance, so investors should not interpret the target cuts as a sign that semiconductor demand or AI-related buying is collapsing.
000660.KS WATCH
KWEB WATCH
HIGH
22:42
Sep 04
Sep 04
CNBC
1d
SPY
US10Y 1ST
GLD
▾
HIGH
S&P stalls near 782 resistance
The S&P 500/SPY has been remarkably resilient but is stalled just below its measured SPY target of 782 after making an all-time high at 779; he is cautiously optimistic but worried if the market starts breaking under 762 on multiple closes.
SPY WATCH
Ten-year Treasury yields heading higher
The 10-year Treasury yield is ultimately heading higher from a secular technical perspective; he told clients in late March they would not see 4% again this cycle, sees a minimum upside target of 5.6%, and gives an ultimate target of 6.07.
US10Y LONG
Gold consolidating above a solid low
Gold is likely to consolidate for a while after selling off 30% from its peak and retracing about half of that decline; the low made two months ago is probably a solid low, but he does not expect an immediate scream to new all-time highs.
GLD WATCH
HIGH
22:41
Sep 04
Sep 04
CNBC
1d
DTCR
▾
MED
Pause data centers to answer transparency questions
Daniel Castro argues data centers are the physical infrastructure powering America's AI economy and should not face statewide moratoriums or bans. He contends local concerns around electricity, noise, and water can be managed like other large infrastructure projects, while large hyperscalers are already adding clean energy and water-positive projects and data centers generate large local tax revenue, so building them responsibly is an economic upside.
DTCR WATCH
MED
22:30
Sep 04
Sep 04
BNO 1ST
UNG 1ST
LNG 1ST
DBA 1ST
Ammonia 1ST
▾
HIGH
Hormuz disruption keeps oil supply tight.
The Strait of Hormuz is the main export gate for Gulf oil. The 2026 conflict collapsed tanker traffic from about 138 ships per day to 20 without a physical blockade, driven by war-risk insurance repricing. Alternative Saudi and UAE pipelines can only bypass a fraction of the roughly 20 million barrels per day that normally cross Hormuz, and the US energy agency does not expect Middle East production to return near pre-conflict levels before early 2027. Brent returned above $92 in this setup.
BNO LONG
Hormuz removal causes global LNG shortages.
About one-fifth of global LNG trade passes through Hormuz, mainly from Qatar and the UAE. Unlike oil, there is no large pipeline system capable of quickly moving that gas to a terminal outside the Gulf. The 2026 crisis removed close to 20% of world LNG supply at certain moments, raised gas costs in Europe, and caused one of the largest disruptions ever observed in the LNG market.
UNG LONG
LNG LONG
Urea prices surge after Hormuz disruption.
The Gulf is a major exporter of ammonia, urea, sulfur, methanol and other agricultural/chemical inputs. The Hormuz crisis interrupted these flows, and because natural gas is the key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer, higher gas costs tend to push urea and ammonia prices higher. Brazilian urea import prices rose about 76% between early January and March 19, 2026, and producer-paid urea costs rose about 40% during the conflict.
DBA LONG
Ammonia LONG
MOO LONG
HIGH
22:26
Sep 04
Sep 04
ZEC
XMR
MEMECOINS FLIP
HOOD
INTC
▾
HIGH
Zcash has highest upside privacy bet
Zcash is his top single long among monetary assets for far higher upside; it is ripping toward $1,000, benefits from monetary debasement, and shielded ZEC usage is growing as privacy demand rises.
ZEC LONG
Monero benefits from privacy usage
Monero is the only coin actually used for privacy, and among monetary assets he cares about Bitcoin, Zcash and Monero; it should do well as privacy usage grows.
XMR LONG
Memecoins benefit from social trading wave
Social trading is drawing new users into memecoins, and crypto is uniquely able to monetize attention quickly, as shown by an AMC-linked coin going from about $100k to $100m market cap in five hours; he sees a golden age of memecoin trading despite lottery-risk caution.
MEMECOINS LONG
Buy Robinhood as crypto finance winner
Robinhood is the only traditional financial institution taking crypto seriously; its chain, tokenization, RWA and stablecoin businesses can create a huge sustainable revenue stream, and HOOD is a long multibagger he is still holding after the move from $92 to $123.
HOOD LONG
Intel targets 140 by year-end
OpenAI's GPT-6 release is crushing benchmarks and reigniting chip demand; Intel is super bullish and could return to $140 by year-end as the summer liquidity lull ends.
INTC LONG
Rebought Nvidia as core AI leader
He bought back Nvidia because he is bullish on core AI assets; in the next phase of the AI trade he wants leaders, and Nvidia is one of the core positions that can continue to run.
NVDA LONG
Buy perp leaders Hyperliquid and Lighter
Real-revenue crypto applications are winning; Lighter is almost $5, was undervalued and integrated by Robinhood, and in the perps-eating-the-world thesis the trade is to buy the leaders Hyperliquid and Lighter rather than chasing laggards.
HYPE LONG
LIT LONG
Biotech remains megatrend position
He is still holding biotech exposure as a megatrend, specifically ARKG and XBI, and believes the portfolio including biotech, Bitcoin, Zcash, Intel and Nvidia can rise 50-100% over the next six months.
ARKG LONG
XBI LONG
Bitcoin breaks 80k to year-end highs
FOMO's user growth has turned gradual rather than spiky, which suggests the space is building and the rally has room; Bitcoin near $80,000 is still early because most retail attention does not shift until Bitcoin breaks all-time highs, which could take six months to a year.
BTC LONG
HIGH
22:09
Sep 04
Sep 04
CNBC
1d
2-Year Treasury Yield
WTI
long-term U.S. Treasuries
SPY
▾
HIGH
Rate hikes delayed until after midterms.
The August jobs report was non-inflationary and gives the Fed room to hike, but the September FOMC is politically constrained by the midterm elections and Trump's tariff threats. Siegel expects rate increases to be delayed until after the election, potentially in December, if inflation data forces action.
2-Year Treasury Yield WATCH
Iran escalation could send oil higher.
Iran is a wild card that could escalate missile attacks before the election, sending oil prices higher and potentially pushing up bond yields, which could force the Fed's hand on inflation.
WTI WATCH
Fed hike could lower long rates.
If the Fed makes a strong move, it could actually lower long-term interest rates by signaling that the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility is intact and it will act, which would support long-term Treasury prices.
long-term U.S. Treasuries LONG
Market may rally after Fed hike.
The stock market would initially have a negative reaction to a September Fed rate hike, but then turn positive because investors would be reassured that the Fed is serious about getting inflation under control.
SPY LONG
HIGH
Choose Sources
Loading sources...