If the Iran War Ends, Will It Spread to Turkey? Israel's 'Next Enemy' / If Hormuz Is Blocked, Will Korean Gasoline Eventually Reach 2,500 Won? | Professor Park Hyun-do, Department of Religious Studies, Sogang University

Summary

Professor Park Hyun-do discusses how Israel views Turkey as the next major security threat after Iran and why Middle East instability is likely to continue. The conversation focuses on the investment-relevant consequences of a prolonged Hormuz blockade, including higher oil and gasoline prices and margin pressure on Korean refiners. He also addresses Korea's structural energy vulnerability and why nuclear power is not an easy solution.

• Israel's leadership sees Iran as its top security threat but now increasingly identifies Turkey as a new Iran-like adversary.
• Middle East disorder is expected to continue even if the Iran conflict winds down, with the US retreating from its prior role.
• A prolonged Hormuz blockade is expected to push oil and Korean gasoline prices higher, with 2,500 won per liter seen as a matter of time.
• Korean refiners depend on cheap Middle East sour-heavy crude, so Hormuz disruption would compress their refining margins.
• Korea's oil dependence is structurally high compared with Japan and Germany because it imports crude and exports refined products.
• Nuclear power is viewed as the best structural fix but is blocked by enrichment and reprocessing constraints and waste-disposal issues.
• Egypt's large population and growth potential are overshadowed by security risk and regional distrust.