Ideas
Nvidia's ecosystem and cash flow remain dominant.
Nvidia's CUDA software moat locks in AI developers, and the company is aggressively widening its ecosystem through M&A and strategic investments such as OpenAI, CoreWeave, and Hugging Face. With next-year revenue guidance near USD 673bn and operating margins around 65-66%, Nvidia's annual cash generation could reach roughly USD 360-380bn; even if cyclical revenue weakens, it can solve the problem by pausing buybacks and dividends for two to three years.
Samsung HBM share recovery supports re-rating.
Samsung Electronics' HBM market share jumped from 21% to 33% in Q2 while SK Hynix fell from 58% to 50%. From HBM4, Samsung can manufacture the base die in its own foundry rather than outsourcing it to TSMC, which So believes restores Samsung's HBM competitiveness and positions it for a re-rating. Chinese memory expansion caps valuations, but if US-Iran war resolution pushes Treasury yields down, Samsung and SK Hynix could still rise 20-30%; Samsung is safer because its smartphone business is holding up and it has foundry optionality.
SK Hynix HBM leader retains upside.
SK Hynix is the incumbent HBM leader and remains exposed to AI memory demand. It can still participate in a Korean memory re-rating of 20-30% if long-term Treasury yields fall, but its Q2 HBM share fell from 58% to 50% as Samsung gained, making it relatively less preferred than Samsung.
Semis rally if yields fall post-war.
Semiconductor equities stalled in July-August because hyperscaler off-balance-sheet debt is roughly USD 2.4trn, and long-term US Treasury yields act as the key headwind. If the US-Iran war ends and oil falls from USD 90 toward USD 70, Treasury yields should decline, allowing semiconductor stocks to rally toward previous highs.
Funds rotate to cheaper AMD and Intel.
With Nvidia's market capitalization around USD 5trn, US fund managers cannot easily add more, so they rotate into smaller, cheaper semiconductor alternatives. AMD is being bought as earnings improve, and Intel is also being bid up despite sub-10% operating margins because US government support and lower market cap make it an easier trade.
Taiwan power shortfall threatens TSMC.
TSMC's biggest risk is Taiwan's power shortage. Taiwan's government phased out nuclear power, and TSMC already uses 8% of Taiwan's electricity with that share expected to exceed 20% within five years. China could exploit this through a blockade rather than an invasion, making TSMC's energy vulnerability a major structural risk.
Toyota collapses without solid-state battery success.
Toyota lacks a competitive EV lineup and is effectively betting on all-solid-state batteries. If solid-state technology does not succeed, So argues Toyota will collapse, and that could seriously damage Japan's auto industry.
Prefer Korean equipment leaders over China exposure.
Korean semiconductor equipment companies that supply Samsung, SK Hynix, and TSMC, such as HPSP and EO Technics, are global leaders. So prefers these over Korean equipment firms heavily exposed to China because Chinese equipment makers like AMEC already supply TSMC etch equipment and use government-backed 1+1 pricing to undercut Korean rivals, hurting China-oriented Korean equipment earnings.
This Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문) video, published September 06, 2026,
features So Hyeon-cheol
discussing NVDA, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, SMH, AMD, INTC, TSM, TM, 403870.KQ, 030200.KQ.
8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
So Hyeon-cheol
· Tickers:
NVDA,
005930.KS,
000660.KS,
SMH,
AMD,
INTC,
TSM,
TM,
403870.KQ,
030200.KQ