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Next edition in 284 min Nov 9, 23:00 - Nov 10, 09:00 Lisbon
Premarket Alpha
Daily Alpha Premarket Alpha by Buzzberg Research

What matters before the open

Chip-export bills reportedly gained ground after the Huang scandal; TSMC's October revenue rose 59.7% year on year; the Senate advanced permitting reform 73-25; Anthropic targets up to $69.3B in its IPO but retracted pricing details sent to bankers.

Main narratives

day change
01

The Information reports three chip-export bills gained ground after the Huang scandal, and Trump said the FBI is looking into the affair

Per The Information, as relayed by Jukan, Nvidia's lobbying against limits on Chinese access to its chips through overseas cloud providers carries less weight since the Huang scandal, reportedly making it easier to advance the MATCH, Overwatch and Chip Security Acts. The White House reportedly asked Congress for a provision requiring Commerce rules that block remote access to certain chips; Jukan says GPU spot prices could take a hit. Trump said the FBI is looking into Huang's relationship.

NVDA +0.0%
02

TSMC's October revenue rose 59.7% year on year to NT$586.89 billion as a Taiwanese report of Nvidia order cuts drew doubts

TSMC reported October revenue of NT$586.89 billion, up 14.7% from September and 59.7% from a year earlier; revenue for the first ten months reached NT$4.49 trillion, up 43.3%. Separately, Jukan relayed a Taiwanese media report that Nvidia may cut its TSMC orders, with AMD and ASIC chipmakers possibly picking up freed wafer capacity. Jukan later agreed with @pequityresearch that the report sounds like recycled rumors.

TSM +0.3% · NVDA +0.0% · AMD -1.2%
03

The Senate invoked cloture 73-25 on the permitting overhaul for transmission, pipelines and data centers, sending the fight to the House

The Senate voted 73 to 25 on Monday to proceed to the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act, above the 60 votes needed and inside the 70-75 band proponents said would give the House confidence, per TheValueist. Rapidan put lame-duck passage odds at 20-25% going in, via Axios. @ren_stocks notes data centers would pay for their own grid upgrades in exchange for faster reviews and fewer lawsuits.

NBIS -0.6%
04

Anthropic's IPO targets up to $69.3 billion at $70-80 a share, per @gurgavin, but the company retracted pricing details sent to bankers

Per @gurgavin, Anthropic targets a primary raise of up to $69.3 billion at $70-80 a share and, per the WSJ, plans to start trading Thursday or Friday next week. Anthropic then retracted details of its IPO filing sent to bankers, saying the pricing details were inaccurate and would be updated. Google, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Micron, Microsoft and TSMC are to invest $26 billion via private placement at the IPO price, per financialjuice.

Themes of the session

?
Z-score shows how far this edition's mention count is above or below the theme's own average across 20 comparable earlier editions. +2.7σ means mentions are 2.7 standard deviations above that average — simply, the theme is being mentioned much more often than usual. It measures attention, not bullishness or expected return. Themes need at least 8 posts; gold begins at +2σ, and σ is hidden when history is too thin.
GLP-1 / Obesity +7.8σ
HIMS -3.3% · LLY +0.4%
17 posts 10 voices base 2.1
Power Producers +3.3σ
VST -0.8% · NRG -0.1% · ORA +0.0%
+1 more TLN —
8 posts 7 voices base 1.4
Construction & Infrastructure +3.2σ
HROW +13.9% · 181710.KS +29.9% · CAT +0.2%
+9 more 1960.T — · 1770.T — · QXO — · ACCV — · RAL — · PLCE — · GFL — · HENKY — · MITSY —
17 posts 14 voices base 7.5
Software & SaaS +2.3σ
ZETA -2.8% · TTD -1.7% · VEEV +0.5%
+15 more APP — · 064400.KS — · 018260.KS — · PLTR — · AKAM — · DDOG — · WIX — · VRSK — · BSY — · PCOR — · U — · DOCU — · IOT — · NOW — · CSU.TO —
24 posts 16 voices base 11.6
AI Compute +2.2σ
NVDA +0.0% · AMD -1.2% · CBRS -1.9%
134 posts 86 voices base 46.2
Pharma & Biotech +1.7σ
MRNA +0.0% · 196170.KQ +4.7% · MRK +0.0%
+11 more SDGR — · INO — · BAYRY — · JNJ — · IBRX — · 068270.KS — · URGN — · CGON — · CAPR +0.3% · ZURA — · TGTX —
17 posts 15 voices base 8.9
Space +1.3σ
RKLB -6.2% · SPCX — · 462350.KQ +10.5%
+1 more SPCE —
25 posts 17 voices base 10.2
AI ASIC +1.2σ
MRVL -1.0% · AVGO -0.8% · ALAB -1.2%
+4 more CDNS — · ARM — · SNPS — · 420770.KQ —
24 posts 20 voices base 14.3
Capital Markets +1.2σ
SFTBY +0.0% · 9984.T +13.9% · MS +0.7%
+4 more KKR +1.2% · BRK.A — · GS — · BN —
11 posts 9 voices base 7.0
Internet Platforms +0.9σ
RDDT -0.5% · SNAP -1.4% · 035420.KS +3.1%
+1 more GDDY —
14 posts 13 voices base 7.5
Thematic ETFs +0.8σ
SMH -0.7% · SOXX -0.9% · SOXL -2.5%
+21 more XBI — · DRAM — · SOXS — · NVDL — · IBB — · TQQQ — · DTCR — · JJU — · PUI — · AIQ — · KBE — · XLP — · GDXU — · ARKQ — · GDX — · GRID — · ASTX — · XLRE — · XLV — · PFFA — · KBA —
34 posts 30 voices base 29.4
NeoCloud +0.6σ
NBIS -0.6% · CRWV +0.5% · IREN -0.5%
+3 more BRUN — · NXT.AX — · GPUS —
37 posts 19 voices base 29.4
AI Hardware +0.6σ
SMCI +0.2% · SANM +19.9% · FROG +0.0%
+6 more JBL — · FLEX -0.1% · QMCO — · CLS — · 081580.KQ — · DELL —
13 posts 13 voices base 9.8
Technology +0.6σ
AI-SECTOR —
8 posts 8 voices base 6.2
Positioning Market Radar →

Buying / adding

3 positions · 3 voices

Selective / waiting

3 positions · 3 voices

Fading / not buying

2 positions · 2 voices
YouTube
22 videos · 36h 40m TBPN framed Huang's admitted relationship as a governance test for Nvidia, Dan Niles started an Nvidia position, and Morgan Stanley's CIO sees the correction closer to completion than its start. Open the desk →
X
1574 posts Jukan relayed The Information on three chip bills and posted TSMC's 59.7% year-on-year October revenue growth, Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) mapped AI laser pricing, and TheValueist detailed the 73-25 permitting vote. Open the desk →
Reddit
769 threads Reddit posts weighed Flex against Celestica, a Sandisk short and Tempus AI's profitability, while r/wallstreetbets split between Nvidia buyers and put holders. Open the desk →
Substack
15 letters Rooster Global Portfolio Mastery Club posted a switch from ARMR into ACDC. Open the desk →