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Next edition in 496 min Nov 6, 23:00 - Nov 8, 23:00 Lisbon
Post-Market Alpha
Daily Alpha Post-Market Alpha by Buzzberg Research

What matters now

Nvidia's board opened an independent probe into whether Jensen Huang was targeted by foreign intelligence; Goldman puts about 45% of planned US data-center capacity in states with potential restrictions; Serenity and Jukan split on memory take-or-pay contracts; Anthropic reportedly committed $3.4B for gas generators.

Main narratives

day change
01

Nvidia's board opened an independent probe into whether Jensen Huang was targeted by foreign intelligence after he admitted an affair

Nvidia's board is investigating whether CEO Jensen Huang was targeted by a foreign espionage plot after he admitted to employees that he was unfaithful to his wife, per Bloomberg. The board says it has no reason to believe secrets or U.S. national security were compromised and reaffirmed confidence in Huang. Three House committee chairs have requested a closed-door briefing on November 18. Jukan sees a real chance Huang could resign or be forced out.

NVDA +2.8%
02

Goldman puts about 45% of planned US data-center capacity in states with potential restrictions; Morgan Stanley sees 12 GW at risk by 2030

Goldman Sachs says states with potential restrictions account for roughly 45% of planned U.S. data-center capacity, Texas alone about 25%, and UBS estimates about 30% of additional capacity through 2028 could be affected, per @pequityresearch. Morgan Stanley sees 12 GW at risk by 2030. On the All-In podcast, the base case discussed is that fully permitted projects proceed through 2027 while new large-scale capacity faces a harder path into 2028.

CRWV +6.6% · NBIS +7.6% · IREN +21.0% · GOOGL +0.8%
+3 more MSFT -1.0% · AMZN -0.1% · META +1.1%
03

Serenity and Jukan split on whether Micron's take-or-pay memory contracts will hold in a downturn

Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) quoted Micron saying its strategic customer agreements cannot be unilaterally canceled and customers must pay for committed volumes whether or not they take delivery. Jukan pointed to onsemi, whose CEO called its LTSAs legally binding take-or-pay in January 2023; in October 2023 onsemi cut its SiC shipment forecast from $1 billion to more than $800 million after one automotive OEM reduced demand. Nomura, relayed by @pequityresearch, expects LTAs to limit memory oversupply risk.

MU +5.8%
04

Anthropic reportedly committed $3.4B for 1.7 GW of gas generators ahead of an IPO roadshow expected the week of November 9

Anthropic reportedly committed $3.4B for 1.7 GW of gas generators by taking over orders OnePWR placed with Caterpillar about two years ago, per @stocksavvyshay; Seeking Alpha cites the FT on the $3.4B generator deal. CNBC, relayed by Unusual Whales, expects the IPO roadshow to begin the week of November 9; per Unusual Whales, Class A shares are to list on Nasdaq as ANT with 22 underwriters led by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.

CAT +0.9% · GEV +0.5% · BE +3.4%

Themes of the session

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Z-score shows how far this edition's mention count is above or below the theme's own average across 20 comparable earlier editions. +2.7σ means mentions are 2.7 standard deviations above that average — simply, the theme is being mentioned much more often than usual. It measures attention, not bullishness or expected return. Themes need at least 8 posts; gold begins at +2σ, and σ is hidden when history is too thin.
Volatility +9.4σ
VIX — · UVXY -2.8% · VIXY —
+6 more VXX — · UVIX — · SVIX — · VOLATILITY — · VXN — · SVXY —
26 posts 15 voices base 1.5
AI Compute +9.1σ
NVDA +2.8% · AMD +11.0% · CBRS +9.8%
324 posts 125 voices base 71.2
Restaurants +9.1σ
CAVA -1.4% · MCD -0.6% · TXRH -4.1%
+10 more CAKE — · BROS — · FWRG — · PZZA — · WING — · SHAK — · KRUS — · DNUT — · WEN — · MTY.TO -0.3%
20 posts 10 voices base 3.4
Satellite Communications +5.9σ
ASTS +7.0% · KVHI +6.6% · SATS -0.4%
32 posts 11 voices base 6.2
Space +5.4σ
SPCX — · RKLB +15.4% · FLY +36.8%
+4 more PL — · VOYG — · LUNR — · RDW —
54 posts 27 voices base 16.6
Healthcare Services +5.2σ
OSCR -7.6% · CVS +3.1% · CAH +1.5%
+2 more AMN — · UNH —
9 posts 5 voices base 1.6
Equity Indexes +4.8σ
SPY — · QQQ +1.6% · SPX —
+21 more EWY — · SCHD — · KORU — · RSP — · COMPQ — · NASDAQ — · NDX — · ES=F — · XAU — · VTI — · DIA — · VXUS — · VOO — · RTY — · FXI — · SP500 — · VBR — · VSS — · AVUV — · SCHG — · ^KS11 —
210 posts 108 voices base 58.2
Software & SaaS +4.6σ
APP +9.9% · ZETA +5.3% · PLTR +3.5%
+21 more NOW -0.4% · CSU.TO — · CRM — · MEI — · U — · DDOG — · 600845.SS — · SGN.WA — · TOI.V — · MNDY — · XMTR — · FRSH — · PATH — · SVIA — · VEEV — · INOD — · OMG.L — · SNOW — · SOUN — · 064400.KS — · WDAY —
65 posts 29 voices base 21.2
AI ASIC +4.5σ
MRVL +5.7% · AVGO +1.3% · QCOM +5.5%
+7 more ARM +4.7% · MCHP -9.9% · ALAB +5.9% · STM — · MX — · 2454.TW — · SNPS —
74 posts 37 voices base 27.4
Capital Markets +4.5σ
BRK.B -0.2% · BRK.A -0.0% · BN -0.9%
+19 more ASST — · OBDC +1.6% · BAM — · SATA — · ECC — · ABCA.PA — · OWL -0.7% · GS — · IEP — · TRIN — · SECZ — · SFTBY +2.7% · BUR — · CME — · TRI — · TRI.TO — · APO -1.1% · BLK +0.7% · BX -0.3%
44 posts 26 voices base 10.9
Construction & Infrastructure +3.6σ
181710.KS +6.1% · ACS.MC +2.4% · 028260.KS -1.5%
+21 more FLR — · CAT +0.9% · PWR — · STRL +3.5% · WCC — · URI — · FIX — · NCC-B.ST — · 006360.KS — · CRTO — · 047040.KS — · 000720.KS — · PCTY — · BLMN — · EME — · BLDR — · REL — · RAL — · NWG — · 000100.KS — · WABAG.NS —
31 posts 19 voices base 9.9
Power Producers +3.6σ
VST +10.6% · SEI -4.7% · 2082.SR —
+2 more NRG — · TLN —
8 posts 5 voices base 2.4
Pharma & Biotech +3.5σ
ABVX +1.9% · CYTK -3.4% · NVS +0.4%
+21 more 068270.KS — · ADMA — · MRNA — · EWTX — · CGON — · 207940.KS — · RVMD — · JNJ — · TGTX — · PFE — · REGN — · ONC — · BMY — · ABBV — · MDGL — · MESO — · 078340.KQ — · 214450.KQ — · 326030.KS — · PRCT — · NHC —
44 posts 24 voices base 17.9
Memory & Storage +3.0σ
MU +5.8% · SNDK +3.5% · SKHY +2.8%
+9 more 005930.KS — · 000660.KS — · WDC — · STX — · SIMO — · 080220.KQ — · 3006.TW — · KXIAY — · 2344.TW —
111 posts 55 voices base 67.0
Positioning Market Radar →

Buying / adding

3 positions · 4 voices

Selective / waiting

3 positions · 3 voices

Fading / not buying

3 positions · 3 voices

Retail private credit

Short-biased researcher Laks Ganapathi argues private credit has been pushed into retail portfolios that cannot tolerate its illiquidity and expects data center debt to crack before traditional direct lending.

Laks GanapathiJack Farley
Monetary Matters
Data center debt or direct lending software private credit debt. >> Oh man, that's tough.
APO
7d before+0.8%
since call -0.6%
BX
7d before+0.8%
since call +0.0%
OWL
7d before-4.9%
since call +0.0%
BIZD
7d before+1.1%
since call +0.0%
YouTube
75 videos · 43h 47m On All-In, the working view is that fully permitted data-center projects to proceed through 2027 but sees a harder path for new capacity into 2028, and Joseph Wang expects slower data-center approvals to extend the unwind in AI and tech leadership. Open the desk →
X
6198 posts Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) and Jukan took opposite sides on whether memory take-or-pay contracts hold in a downturn, while Chamath tied compute pricing to data-center delays and a 90-day termination clause. Open the desk →
Reddit
1083 threads One r/investing poster argued the chip selloff overprices 2028 permitting risk, while a research shop argued Micron's low forward P/E marks a cycle top. Open the desk →
Substack
11 letters SemiAnalysis visited an 800MW wind-powered AI campus in Inner Mongolia that built 120MW within a year. Open the desk →