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· Premarket Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Jukan relayed The Information on three chip bills and posted TSMC's 59.7% year-on-year October revenue growth, Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) mapped AI laser pricing, and TheValueist detailed the 73-25 permitting vote.
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TheValueist says hardware perpetuals are lifting, with Lumentum up 16% on the day after falling about 50% in a month, while pre-IPO lab marks trail the hardware by about 8 points on the day.
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Market Radar →The Information reports Nvidia's lobbying appears to carry less weight after the Huang scandal, easing three chip bills
Per The Information, the fallout reportedly made it easier to advance the MATCH Act on lithography shipments to China, the Overwatch Act on congressional oversight of AI chip sale approvals, and the Chip Security Act requiring built-in chip tracking.
According to The Information, NVIDIA has long lobbied hard against proposals to restrict Chinese companies’ access to its latest chips
The National Defense Authorization Act is expected to pass before the new Democratic-led Congress convenes in January, giving Republican leaders an incentive to move the legislation now.
Watch Passage of the National Defense Authorization Act before January.
Source →TSMC's October revenue was NT$586.9B, up 14.7% month on month and 59.7% year on year
Jukan posted TSMC's October 2026 revenue of NT$586.9 billion, a 14.7% increase from the prior month and 59.7% from a year earlier.
TSMC’s October 2026 revenue: NT$586.9B (+14.7% MoM, +59.7% YoY) https://t.co/eOmmay4B7oSource →
Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) lists AI laser prices from about $3-4 for 70mW parts to $50-75 for 400mW NPO/CPO lasers
Citing Nomura for 350mW UHP CW lasers at about $40 and Mizuho for 400mW parts at $50-75, Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) says pricing and gross margins rise with each architectural shift, to 60%+ for CPO lasers.
If you look at CW laser ASPs for AI data centers, the pricing differences are pretty substantial: 70mW: ~$3–4 100mW:
Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) calls COHR probably the best risk-adjusted laser player now, calling its new $20B LTA very substantial, and is pretty negative on LITE given the valuation overhang from the MRVL acquisition.
Source →The permitting overhaul cleared Senate cloture 73 to 25, and the fight moves to the House
Yeas were 51 Republicans, 21 Democrats and one independent, with 60 needed. Proponents had said 70-75 yeas would give the House confidence, and Rapidan put lame-duck passage odds at 20-25% going in, via Axios.
https://t.co/iFLZUoTOlR $NVDA $MU $SNDK $LITE PERMITTING OVERHAUL CLEARS SENATE CLOTURE 73 TO 25:
The bill is a permitting overhaul for transmission, pipelines and data centers with NEPA streamlining.
Watch House action on H.R. 2347, which carries the Senate text.
Source →@jiahanjimliu estimates Chinese proxies at about 33.2% of Nvidia's billings
The post argues the Alice Huang incident's key implication is tighter US exports of AI chips to Chinese proxies, summing Singapore's 18% from January 2025, Hong Kong's 8.2% and 7% from an assumed quarter of Taiwan's 28%.
$SPCX, $IREN: @elonmusk knew that 2027 would need 10-20GW more DC capacity before anyone else.
The post sets this against GPU prices at all-time highs while semiconductor stocks cratered.
Source →